Israel-Gaza war

[GALeftist]

Don't know if this is true, but holy the incompetence if it is.

There's no evidence that it happened.  It's from an Anonymous Source that was supposedly told about a conversation (hearsay upon hearsay), and Israel says its disinformation disseminated to divide the country.  The Egyptian claimed something "big" was going to happen in Gaza.  

I find it ridiculous that this grand planned attack went on invading into Israel, and no one intelligence anywhere knew anything. When this is all over, some Mossad leadership are going to be told by the country's leadership to go find another job. This is CIA 9/11-level intelligence failures by Mossad.

(I've seen one explanation of Hamas have gone to doing everything by courier, avoiding using electronic messaging means at all. Considering how tech-heavy modern-day American and Israeli intelligence are, it's a great way of going underneath if your adversary has no human intelligence. Compare and contrast how the U.S. were telling everyone for months the Russians would invade Ukraine and all their allies thinking it would never happen, compared to not a peep here. If that were the case of Hamas are intentionally not computerized, I would expect Egypt to have human intelligence inside Hamas if Egyptian intelligence was worth ten cents. Even for tech intelligence though, you don't see missiles being moved around?)

I think there are basically two possibilities at this point:

1. The Netanyahu government knew this attack was coming but, in their hubris, believed Hamas incapable of fighting or winning outside Gaza and therefore didn’t take it seriously.

2. The Netanyahu government knew this attack was coming and let it happen.

Normally even I wouldn’t entertain 2 as an option, but the scale of IDF failures in the south is just so catastrophic that it’s hard to imagine an even halfway prepared response failing so completely. I am still leaning towards 1 – one must remember that the settlements in the West Bank are an enormous security liability for the Israeli state, especially given that Israel has been antagonizing the Palestinian Authority as of late, who normally acts as a convenient enforcer for Israel in the West Bank – but I do not think 2 should be ruled out.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Don't know if this is true, but holy the incompetence if it is.

There's no evidence that it happened.  It's from an Anonymous Source that was supposedly told about a conversation (hearsay upon hearsay), and Israel says its disinformation disseminated to divide the country.  The Egyptian claimed something "big" was going to happen in Gaza.  

I find it ridiculous that this grand planned attack went on invading into Israel, and no one intelligence anywhere knew anything. When this is all over, some Mossad leadership are going to be told by the country's leadership to go find another job. This is CIA 9/11-level intelligence failures by Mossad.

(I've seen one explanation of Hamas have gone to doing everything by courier, avoiding using electronic messaging means at all. Considering how tech-heavy modern-day American and Israeli intelligence are, it's a great way of going underneath if your adversary has no human intelligence. Compare and contrast how the U.S. were telling everyone for months the Russians would invade Ukraine and all their allies thinking it would never happen, compared to not a peep here. If that were the case of Hamas are intentionally not computerized, I would expect Egypt to have human intelligence inside Hamas if Egyptian intelligence was worth ten cents. Even for tech intelligence though, you don't see missiles being moved around?)

2. The Netanyahu government knew this attack was coming and let it happen.

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

[CumbrianLefty]

In Israel there is talk about RZ and Otzma having to leave the government for the sake of national unity, but I would actually argue it's the Haredim who need to go now. You don't deserve to decide on the (way of) deployment of the army if you fight vehemently to have everyone in the country serve in it except for your own community.

Yeah, I've been wondering if this will be the moment that would finally force the Haredim to do their fair share to defend and support the country that protects their way of life. I agree with them that Torah study should be part of the fabric of a Jewish state, but certainly not at the expense of literally everything else. Their kollelim don't defend themselves.

Military needs are much higher than they were 3 days ago, and Israel can't afford to have 20% of its Jewish population not contributing.

So you want Israel to be even more of a theocracy than it already is.

Do you know what the term "theocracy" means? Because Israel is currently light years away from being one.

But, well, this is a board where everything is also a "genocide" or "ethnic cleansing" these days...

I totally agree Israel is not a theocracy *now*, but that's not the point really.

Much more it is the direction of travel, which does worry many of us.

[GALeftist]

Don't know if this is true, but holy the incompetence if it is.

There's no evidence that it happened.  It's from an Anonymous Source that was supposedly told about a conversation (hearsay upon hearsay), and Israel says its disinformation disseminated to divide the country.  The Egyptian claimed something "big" was going to happen in Gaza.  

I find it ridiculous that this grand planned attack went on invading into Israel, and no one intelligence anywhere knew anything. When this is all over, some Mossad leadership are going to be told by the country's leadership to go find another job. This is CIA 9/11-level intelligence failures by Mossad.

(I've seen one explanation of Hamas have gone to doing everything by courier, avoiding using electronic messaging means at all. Considering how tech-heavy modern-day American and Israeli intelligence are, it's a great way of going underneath if your adversary has no human intelligence. Compare and contrast how the U.S. were telling everyone for months the Russians would invade Ukraine and all their allies thinking it would never happen, compared to not a peep here. If that were the case of Hamas are intentionally not computerized, I would expect Egypt to have human intelligence inside Hamas if Egyptian intelligence was worth ten cents. Even for tech intelligence though, you don't see missiles being moved around?)

2. The Netanyahu government knew this attack was coming and let it happen.

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

Again, these are serious things that I don’t want to allege without conclusive evidence, but it’s easy to see the Machiavellian logic, which is why I say it shouldn’t be ruled out. Whether or not Netanyahu intentionally let the attack happen, though, it remains a failure at the highest levels. The Israeli people deserve our support, but the Israeli government absolutely does not except insofar as is absolutely necessary to prevent (or at least mitigate) humanitarian catastrophe

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We'll have a better idea of exactly what went wrong in the future - probably the relatively near future - but what's clear enough is that this wasn't just an intelligence failure: had an intelligence failure occurred and the border been defended in the way it usually had been and had the sort of rapid response that everybody assumed would occur happened (and honestly that is the biggest mystery: even with everything out of place it should still not have taken nearly half a day to reach the area), then things would have been significantly less catastrophic. It is better to term it a total failure of security (or 'state security') policy.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Don't know if this is true, but holy the incompetence if it is.

There's no evidence that it happened.  It's from an Anonymous Source that was supposedly told about a conversation (hearsay upon hearsay), and Israel says its disinformation disseminated to divide the country.  The Egyptian claimed something "big" was going to happen in Gaza.  

I find it ridiculous that this grand planned attack went on invading into Israel, and no one intelligence anywhere knew anything. When this is all over, some Mossad leadership are going to be told by the country's leadership to go find another job. This is CIA 9/11-level intelligence failures by Mossad.

(I've seen one explanation of Hamas have gone to doing everything by courier, avoiding using electronic messaging means at all. Considering how tech-heavy modern-day American and Israeli intelligence are, it's a great way of going underneath if your adversary has no human intelligence. Compare and contrast how the U.S. were telling everyone for months the Russians would invade Ukraine and all their allies thinking it would never happen, compared to not a peep here. If that were the case of Hamas are intentionally not computerized, I would expect Egypt to have human intelligence inside Hamas if Egyptian intelligence was worth ten cents. Even for tech intelligence though, you don't see missiles being moved around?)

2. The Netanyahu government knew this attack was coming and let it happen.

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

There's always been in this country a fringe comment "Roosevelt knew the Japanese would attack Pearl Harbor to use that as a pretext to enter into World War II in Europe" when Americans due to World War I were heavily isolationist. The reality is he did not, it was more in the vein of "the Navy knew Japan were up to something but did not know what, and pieced it all together too late".

There's a difference between "Intelligence knows something is up" and "Intelligence knows they are attacking at this location at this time with these soldiers and that artillery". Mossad here it sounds like they didn't even know something was up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

That isn't how things work in Israel as a rule: people do rally round the flag, and probably to an even greater extent than normal, but it really is to the flag, to the State and to the idea of the State rather than to the government of the day. If the latter is seen to have failed, people often get very angry with it even as they rally to the flag. Many examples of this historically, and some pretty unambiguous signs now, though I won't predict how that develops further.

[GALeftist]

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

That isn't how things work in Israel as a rule: people do rally round the flag, and probably to an even greater extent than normal, but it really is to the flag, to the State and to the idea of the State rather than to the government of the day. If the latter is seen to have failed, people often get very angry with it even as they rally to the flag. Many examples of this historically, and some pretty unambiguous signs now, though I won't predict how that develops further.

That notwithstanding, there are other ways this could benefit the Netanyahu government. Before, Israel would have encountered substantial opposition, domestic and foreign, to a ground invasion of Gaza; now, it likely has carte blanche. The obvious counterpoint is that such an invasion is undesirable from an Israeli perspective, which is true unless your single overriding priority is to stamp out any and all Palestinian political independence.

Again, I think this is less likely than the alternative, and even if true it would obviously not absolve Hamas whatsoever. It freely chose to inflict terror. Just saying this possibility ought not to be ruled out.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In general, the issue with intelligence agencies and their complicity in this sort of thing is not because they have been ordered by the man from the top to conduct a false flag, but because they have totally lost control of their own "assets". A reliable double agent is a triple agent, an agent provocateur goes way too far etc. Then because of smoke and mirrors, every person in the chain has to cover their own culpability

[Bacon King]

Which with hindsight was not the journalistic slam dunk it was portrayed as for decades when the perpetrator was a guy upset he didn't get made FBI Director where Nixon rightfully wanted to take control of the FBI from the J. Edgar Hoovers of the world, so over a bureaucratic appointment sleight it brought down a whole presidency. Woodward and Bernstein got used as young naive reporters.

sorry what?

it was objectively a very good thing that the press was able to inform the public about the Watergate scandal

even if you're correct about his motives, they do not in any cheapen the importance of the outcome

(also as an aside it's really weird to say Woodward and Bernstein "got used" for something that skyrocketed their careers?)

[Bacon King]

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

That isn't how things work in Israel as a rule: people do rally round the flag, and probably to an even greater extent than normal, but it really is to the flag, to the State and to the idea of the State rather than to the government of the day. If the latter is seen to have failed, people often get very angry with it even as they rally to the flag. Many examples of this historically, and some pretty unambiguous signs now, though I won't predict how that develops further.

That notwithstanding, there are other ways this could benefit the Netanyahu government. Before, Israel would have encountered substantial opposition, domestic and foreign, to a ground invasion of Gaza; now, it likely has carte blanche. The obvious counterpoint is that such an invasion is undesirable from an Israeli perspective, which is true unless your single overriding priority is to stamp out any and all Palestinian political independence.

Again, I think this is less likely than the alternative, and even if true it would obviously not absolve Hamas whatsoever. It freely chose to inflict terror. Just saying this possibility ought not to be ruled out.

this is a bit of a simplification but Netanyahu's political support is almost entirely because he can say "I'm the only one who can keep you safe" and enough people believed him -- an illusion that has now been irrevocably shattered

[GALeftist]

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

That isn't how things work in Israel as a rule: people do rally round the flag, and probably to an even greater extent than normal, but it really is to the flag, to the State and to the idea of the State rather than to the government of the day. If the latter is seen to have failed, people often get very angry with it even as they rally to the flag. Many examples of this historically, and some pretty unambiguous signs now, though I won't predict how that develops further.

That notwithstanding, there are other ways this could benefit the Netanyahu government. Before, Israel would have encountered substantial opposition, domestic and foreign, to a ground invasion of Gaza; now, it likely has carte blanche. The obvious counterpoint is that such an invasion is undesirable from an Israeli perspective, which is true unless your single overriding priority is to stamp out any and all Palestinian political independence.

Again, I think this is less likely than the alternative, and even if true it would obviously not absolve Hamas whatsoever. It freely chose to inflict terror. Just saying this possibility ought not to be ruled out.

this is a bit of a simplification but Netanyahu's political support is almost entirely because he can say "I'm the only one who can keep you safe" and enough people believed him -- an illusion that has now been irrevocably shattered

I wouldn't say entirely – a lot of Israelis are just legitimately right-of-center on the issues – but you are right, if this was something they let happen they had to have known it would be catastrophic if/when it got out, which is why I think it's very unlikely. Just trying to wrap my head around the unprecedented scale of the IDF failure in the south. This isn't "we knew something was coming but had no idea how big it would be" failure, this is more like "we were all on vacation" failure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

That isn't how things work in Israel as a rule: people do rally round the flag, and probably to an even greater extent than normal, but it really is to the flag, to the State and to the idea of the State rather than to the government of the day. If the latter is seen to have failed, people often get very angry with it even as they rally to the flag. Many examples of this historically, and some pretty unambiguous signs now, though I won't predict how that develops further.

That notwithstanding, there are other ways this could benefit the Netanyahu government. Before, Israel would have encountered substantial opposition, domestic and foreign, to a ground invasion of Gaza; now, it likely has carte blanche. The obvious counterpoint is that such an invasion is undesirable from an Israeli perspective, which is true unless your single overriding priority is to stamp out any and all Palestinian political independence.

Again, I think this is less likely than the alternative, and even if true it would obviously not absolve Hamas whatsoever. It freely chose to inflict terror. Just saying this possibility ought not to be ruled out.

this is a bit of a simplification but Netanyahu's political support is almost entirely because he can say "I'm the only one who can keep you safe" and enough people believed him -- an illusion that has now been irrevocably shattered

I wouldn't say entirely – a lot of Israelis are just legitimately right-of-center on the issues – but you are right, if this was something they let happen they had to have known it would be catastrophic if/when it got out, which is why I think it's very unlikely. Just trying to wrap my head around the unprecedented scale of the IDF failure in the south. This isn't "we knew something was coming but had no idea how big it would be" failure, this is more like "we were all on vacation" failure.

On an occasion I was in the store earlier this year, Bibi's book was on sale. I read some of it and what I saw really underlined the "I keep Israel safe and I will stop at nothing to defend Israel" brand.
If his ability to keep people safe has been shown to be suboptimal, he might feel forced to take a harsh line and stick to it to retain whatever credibility he has left.

[KaiserDave]

GALeftist is right. Say Netanyahu goes down for this, as he very well may. If his coalition had to produce a new Prime Minister, it would be someone as right-wing or more right-wing than him. Also even if he quit the PM job, he will be the chief of Likud until he dies. He controls that party. If there as an election, maybe Gantz becomes Prime Minister. Gantz is mildly right of center, and will not effect any dramatic changes with regards to I/P relations, I think.

Most Israelis are right of center on most issues.

[Hindsight was 2020]

There are really disturbing reports of more atrocities Hamas committed on hostages that might be going mainstream soon ☹️

[Vosem]

Most Israelis are right of center on most issues.

'Left' and 'right' do not mean the same thing in every society, and every society has a different set of issues, and a different 'Overton window' of what positions on those issues are acceptable to hold. In Israel that window has been rapidly shifting over the past week.

In particular, militarism in Israel is a historically left-wing position, and while dovish thought has mostly been promoted by "left-wing" parties like Meretz and Avoda over the past few decades, the trend is towards dovish thought becoming associated with Haredi, religious fundamentalist parties.

Polling prior to the war breaking out suggested an election would result in a victory for the Kahol Lavan party of Benny Gantz, which by Israeli standards is "maybe-just-barely-left-of-center" -- although, yes, even in 2013 its positions would've scanned as "moderate right-of-center" -- but which has been led by a council of former generals.

This is just not a very coherent line of speculation, because I don't think the definitions of these words are precise enough to be meaningful in the context in which you're using them.

[lfromnj]

Its pretty unlikely Netanyahu let this happen because Mossad certainly would have leaked it to atleast the army. The army and the security forces unlike most nations are actually left of the government. Some key reasons is that the IDF draft  excludes a few groups.

[Vosem]

12% of Gazans have left since Hamas seized power in the Strip; they are free to leave to wherever will take them. (My guess is Hamas probably fights emigration in some way, but not with enough success to stop 12% of Gazans from leaving.)

the residents of the Gaza Strip are not even remotely "free to leave" and the fact that so many of its residents have fled - despite the huge hurdles they must overcome in order to do so - only underlines just how desperate their situation has been since 2007.

I encourage you to read the article you linked here. As it states:

Some Palestinians depart for medical treatment without returning. Others pay bribes of thousands of dollars to Hamas police at the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Sums as high as $10,000 dollars and more are paid to smugglers who take Palestinians by boat to Spain via Egypt and North Africa, or to Greece or Turkey, which are closer. Turkey is popular destination because the cost of a visa is only $150 and Turkey has a large Palestinian community of around 30,000.

The Palestinians are fleeing a bleak economic situation. Gaza’s unemployment rate stands at 74%. Those who manage to find a job earn an average yearly salary of $250. That puts 80% of Gaza’s population under the poverty line. The CIR report also noted a significant increase in suicide among youth.

I trust I don't need to spell it out for you here that the vast and overwhelming majority of Gazans are quite literally imprisoned within the Strip. Trapped, by both the blockade and the Hamas dictatorship.

I did read the article, and I said in my own post that immigration is hard both logistically and spiritually. It is hard to have the funds to leave a very poor country, and it is hard to abandon your family and support network to move to an uncertain life in a country where you may not speak the language and where people may not hold cultural assumptions which are very fundamental for you. I know individuals who fled Venezuela in the 2010s; when my father, mother, grandmother, and great-grandfather came to the US came to the US in 1995, it was after four years of Kafka-esque bureaucratic tangling, with $7,000 total, and with only my father even being familiar with the Latin alphabet. And no English.

Gaza is not unique in this. (Many dictatorships have functioned much more like prisons; to escape East Germany you had to be a MacGyver-esque genius, capable of personally engineering hot air balloons or literally personally inventing a new kind of vehicle). Paying a bribe is comparatively easy, and it is fair to note that leaving is not prohibited if 12% of people have left. (It is fair to note that those who left must have had some advantages over those who stayed; but this is always true when countries generate emigrant streams.)

like even if you're lucky enough to emigrate legally without having to give Hamas a bribe (by knowing the right people who can pull the right strings, i guess) the cheapest visa option is a whopping 60% the average annual salary - of the 26% who even EARN a salary.

Some open air prison that people leave routinely and which bombs its surroundings!

The Gaza Strip is an "open-air prison" for the two million civilians trapped inside.

Israel is the warden in this analogy but Hamas isn't an inmate - they are the guards

Gaza is not a prison. It is an authoritarian regime, and it is absolutely true that the people living under the authoritarian regime are oppressed by it much more than the people living in the states around it. It is important to maintain compassion for them -- even for people who are deluded enough to support the regime -- but that should not let anyone lose sight of what their situation is, or the threat posed by that regime to people around the world.

(Israel as the warden here feels strange; guards are hired by wardens, and don't fire rockets at them. But it is fair to say that the Gazan regime would not exist without the inexcusable failures of Israeli 'peace' policies between the Rabin and Olmert governments.)

More than one kind of evil exists in the world. Authoritarian regimes are not prisons. Thinking of them as prisons does not generally enlighten one as to what it is like to live under them -- maybe with a few select exceptions, like the DDR or Juche Korea -- or what their effect on the world around them is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231010-israel-mk-says-use-doomsday-weapons-against-gaza/
Revital Gotliv MK: “Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength.”

[Aurelius2]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231010-israel-mk-says-use-doomsday-weapons-against-gaza/
Revital Gotliv MK: “Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength.”

Utterly deranged

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling prior to the war breaking out suggested an election would result in a victory for the Kahol Lavan party of Benny Gantz, which by Israeli standards is "maybe-just-barely-left-of-center" -- although, yes, even in 2013 its positions would've scanned as "moderate right-of-center" -- but which has been led by a council of former generals.

Gantz, of course, always runs with a definite attempt at a 'oooh remembers Labor as it used to be?' vibe, and it turns out that where this gets placed in terms of 'Left' and 'Right' is very variable as the meanings of those words are even more conditional and slippery than in most countries.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231010-israel-mk-says-use-doomsday-weapons-against-gaza/
Revital Gotliv MK: “Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength.”

Utterly deranged

These kinds of people you don't want to have their hands on the button.
Conserving one's strength and care when using it are important for preserving said strength. Even if this was a situation that merited what she was calling for (and no, it isn't), she'd be the wrong man for the job.
In your guts you know she's nuts.

[Aurelius2]

More rockets fired from south Lebanon.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

They found the bodies of 40 babies in a kibbutz.

The US can't stop what's to come now. No one can. That's not an endorsement of it, that's just a statement of fact. This isn't 9/11, this is the impact of Pearl Harbor combined with the sadism of the Holocaust, and it's unleashed something in Israel that won't be put back in the bottle.

[ProudModerate2]

I don't see how Hamas thinks that they are helping Palestinians in what they have done.
(Many) More Palestinians will die, compared to Israelis, after this round of a mini-war has been concluded.
More Palestinian homes and structures will be destroyed, compared to those of Israel.
And worse thing of all, is that the Palestinians and their cause, have lost severe support from the international community.