NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Senator Incitatus]

14 days to election:
2021: 269k (D+44.3, 65.6 - 21.3)
2022: 319k (D+45.1, 65.6 - 20.5)
2023: 279k (D+44.4, 65.8 - 21.4)

Where are you getting the 2021 numbers? I’ve been looking but haven’t been able to find a point of comparison.

TargetSmart has registered voter totals for comparison-
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2023?demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22registeredParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D

Thanks!

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

14 days to election:
2021: 269k (D+44.3, 65.6 - 21.3)
2022: 319k (D+45.1, 65.6 - 20.5)
2023: 279k (D+44.4, 65.8 - 21.4)

so we are slightly above 2021. I don't think Republicans are going to get a majority in either chamber.

Maybe that Danny DeVito ad helped after all.

What Danny devito ad

[Progressive Pessimist]

14 days to election:
2021: 269k (D+44.3, 65.6 - 21.3)
2022: 319k (D+45.1, 65.6 - 20.5)
2023: 279k (D+44.4, 65.8 - 21.4)

so we are slightly above 2021. I don't think Republicans are going to get a majority in either chamber.

Maybe that Danny DeVito ad helped after all.

What Danny devito ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuTL6__xlLk&pp=ygURRGFubnkgZGV2aXRvIHZvdGU%3D

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

14 days to election:
2021: 269k (D+44.3, 65.6 - 21.3)
2022: 319k (D+45.1, 65.6 - 20.5)
2023: 279k (D+44.4, 65.8 - 21.4)

so we are slightly above 2021. I don't think Republicans are going to get a majority in either chamber.

Maybe that Danny DeVito ad helped after all.

What Danny devito ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuTL6__xlLk&pp=ygURRGFubnkgZGV2aXRvIHZvdGU%3D

lol of course the comments are bots insinuating that VBM is fraudulent

[Roll Roons]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/biden-underwater-in-new-jersey-poll-people-still-like-cory-booker/

Per Stockton, Biden’s approval in NJ is underwater by 16 points, including 29 with independents.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 928,611
Dem: 530,618 (57.1%)
Rep: 173,022 (18.6%)

Total ballots returned: 302,173
Dem: 198,342 (65.6%)
Rep: 64,589 (21.3%)

Dem return rate: 37.4%
Rep return rate: 37.3%

[Senator Incitatus]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/biden-underwater-in-new-jersey-poll-people-still-like-cory-booker/

Per Stockton, Biden’s approval in NJ is underwater by 16 points, including 29 with independents.

Not sure how much impact this will have, but as the article notes, it’s in line with Obama 2011, which also points to a 2021-esque result with changes possible to due to redistricting and partisan shifts.

Menendez is also at -64, which is the sort of thing that usually requires an actual conviction.

[wbrocks67]

To me, it seems like we're likely on track for a basically redux of 2021 in terms of seats won, outside of a few shifts. I do think Durr is likely headed for defeat, but outside of that, it seems mostly business as usual.

[Duke of York]

To me, it seems like we're likely on track for a basically redux of 2021 in terms of seats won, outside of a few shifts. I do think Durr is likely headed for defeat, but outside of that, it seems mostly business as usual.

I think this is reasonable.

Why do you believe Durr will lose?

[Mr.Phips]

To me, it seems like we're likely on track for a basically redux of 2021 in terms of seats won, outside of a few shifts. I do think Durr is likely headed for defeat, but outside of that, it seems mostly business as usual.

If Durr loses (I still don’t think he does), that means Dems almost certainly hold SD-04 and it’s assembly seats, meaning Dems probably have small gains in both chambers.

[wbrocks67]

To me, it seems like we're likely on track for a basically redux of 2021 in terms of seats won, outside of a few shifts. I do think Durr is likely headed for defeat, but outside of that, it seems mostly business as usual.

I think this is reasonable.

Why do you believe Durr will lose?

Personally I think Durr's win in 2021 was a major fluke, especially with a lot of negativity towards Sweeney, even among Dems. This year, Ds have massively outspent Rs in that district, and the VBM returns also look way more healthy.

[Senator Incitatus]

To me, it seems like we're likely on track for a basically redux of 2021 in terms of seats won, outside of a few shifts. I do think Durr is likely headed for defeat, but outside of that, it seems mostly business as usual.

If Durr loses (I still don’t think he does), that means Dems almost certainly hold SD-04 and it’s assembly seats, meaning Dems probably have small gains in both chambers.

I wouldn’t be so sure. Durr is being attacked in a specifically directed campaign that is reminiscent of the Norcross campaign against Lee Laskin. I don’t think Republicans lose either seat, but I wouldn’t bank on trends favoring Durr versus Del Borrello.

[Roll Roons]

If Durr loses, I don’t think it would be accurate to call his 2021 victory a fluke. If anything, we could say his initial victory was indicative of a long-term rightward trend in the region that just happened to be interrupted because of his unique vulnerabilities. Rod Blum is the best parallel I can think of.

[wbrocks67]

12 days to election:
2021: 296k — 65.7% D, 20.9% R; D+44.8
2022: 347k — 65.5% D, 20.3% R; D+45.2
2023: 302k — 65.6% D, 21.3% R; D+44.3

[Ferguson97]

Hot take for a (Dem) upset: LD-39

[Dead Parrot]

Hot take for a (Dem) upset: LD-39

I'm not seeing it. Even when the Bergen GOP nominated Bridgegate Bridget Kelly for Clerk in 2021, she still won the new LD-39 by over 4 points (while losing countywide by 9). Even last year, Jim Tedesco only won LD-39 in the County Executive race by 0.2%. Northern Bergen is clearly trending Dem, but it still has a ways to go in downballot races.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 929,716
Dem: 531,041 (57.1%)
Rep: 173,321 (18.6%)

Total ballots returned: 310,786
Dem: 203,870 (65.6%)
Rep: 66,277 (21.3%)

Dem return rate: 38.4%
Rep return rate: 38.2%

[Tekken_Guy]

If Durr loses, I don’t think it would be accurate to call his 2021 victory a fluke. If anything, we could say his initial victory was indicative of a long-term rightward trend in the region that just happened to be interrupted because of his unique vulnerabilities. Rod Blum is the best parallel I can think of.

I think this would definitely be the case if Durr loses but the assembly seats stay R.

[wbrocks67]

11 days to election:
2021: 324k — 65.6% D, 20.7% R; D+44.9
2022: 373k — 65.2% D, 20.3% R; D+44.9
2023: 311k — 65.6% D, 21.3% R; D+44.3

[Ferguson97]

Hot take for a (Dem) upset: LD-39

I'm not seeing it. Even when the Bergen GOP nominated Bridgegate Bridget Kelly for Clerk in 2021, she still won the new LD-39 by over 4 points (while losing countywide by 9). Even last year, Jim Tedesco only won LD-39 in the County Executive race by 0.2%. Northern Bergen is clearly trending Dem, but it still has a ways to go in downballot races.

These are new districts though. The new LD-39 is somewhat more Democratic. The Democrats collectively got more primary votes than Republicans as well.

[Dead Parrot]

These are new districts though. The new LD-39 is somewhat more Democratic. The Democrats collectively got more primary votes than Republicans as well.

Those numbers are for the new district; the old LD-39 extended into Passaic County, so data from county races would not be applicable. And I doubt the number of primary votes signifies anything. In 2021 and especially 2017, the Democratic primary vote was higher than that of the GOP in several LDs that nonetheless stayed red in November.

[Senator Incitatus]

These are new districts though. The new LD-39 is somewhat more Democratic. The Democrats collectively got more primary votes than Republicans as well.

Those numbers are for the new district; the old LD-39 extended into Passaic County, so data from county races would not be applicable. And I doubt the number of primary votes signifies anything. In 2021 and especially 2017, the Democratic primary vote was higher than that of the GOP in several LDs that nonetheless stayed red in November.

Primary turnout (on a district-by-district level) means next to nothing in NJ because there are non-partisan local races that skew turnout and very few contested primaries due to the county system, which causes a few races to skew them as well, usually both in favor of the Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

13,268 early voters on Saturday; they were D+18 --- 51% D, 33% R.

Pretty much the exact same as last year; the first day of in-person early voting in 2022 was D+19, 50-31.

[wbrocks67]

VBM returned: 328,843
Dem: 215,747 (65.6%)
Rep: 69,519 (21.1%)

Early in-person: 23,710
Dem: 11,493 (48.5%)
Rep: 8,151 (34.4%)

[Senator Incitatus]

Early in-person: 23,710
Dem: 11,493 (48.5%)
Rep: 8,151 (34.4%)

Wonder how much more this gap will close.