Let’s talk about Gavin Newsom 2024.

[Хahar 🤔]

Newsom may lose, but not because he’s an "electoral underperformer." Bill Clinton underperformed badly in 1980 and still won twelve and sixteen years later with two of the most brazenly slick, womanizing, shallow campaigns America has ever seen. Granted, it would have been closer if not for Perot (sorry, Alben/Frank), but still, this stuff doesn’t matter as much as some think it does. (And sometimes it helps because you learn from your past mistakes.)

It might be hard for the average Atlas poster to relate to this, but Newsom has a lot of the qualities that actually matter in presidential elections — he’s good-looking, fit, can project strength/leadership, would probably give off alpha vibes on a debate stage, triggers the other side, combative, good at shifting the focus away from his record, etc. DeSantis would have benefited from this as well if he didn’t allow Trump to emasculate him. Too bad..

I've opined before that Newsom's appeal has similarities to that of Andrew Cuomo, who had a large following nationwide even as he was consistently the least popular politician in America on this forum. It makes sense, then, that people here wouldn't see the appeal of Newsom, either.

I think that Newsom will make a serious effort to win the nomination in 2028 and I think he'll have a serious chance, but for a couple reasons I don't think he'll ever actually be nominated for president. The first is the obvious one, which is that it's almost always a good idea to bet on the field. The second is that Newsom's appeal is calibrated toward cable news. Cable news viewers are a shrinking demographic and increasingly it seems like people who don't watch it are actively hostile to that sort of appeal, viewing it as fake. Witness that last time the Democratic nomination was won by Joe Biden, who had very little of this sort of appeal. If Newsom had been running thirty years ago, I'd think a lot more highly of his chances.

The comparison with DeSantis is obvious and the obvious difference is that DeSantis is not a natural performer in the way that Newsom is. Even in 2018, you could tell that he seemed stilted, like he was putting on an act. Of course it didn't matter then and probably he couldn't have won the nomination this time no matter what, but it certainly hasn't helped.

[The Mikado]

Heatcharger, for real for a second, how do you see this working out? If Newsom wants to run in 2024 he has to launch, like, approximately "now." We have had two filing deadlines go by and there's three more (SC and AL on Nov 10th, AR on Nov 14th) within the next three weeks?

If you really think Newsom's going to announce at his Nov 30th debate with DeSantis (which LOL) he's going to really really struggle with the massive amount of filing deadlines in the first half of December, many of which require signatures.

If he were going to run, why isn't he...running? Dean Phillips the Gelato Man is.

[Sol]

I've opined before that Newsom's appeal has similarities to that of Andrew Cuomo, who had a large following nationwide even as he was consistently the least popular politician in America on this forum. It makes sense, then, that people here wouldn't see the appeal of Newsom, either.

I think that Newsom will make a serious effort to win the nomination in 2028 and I think he'll have a serious chance, but for a couple reasons I don't think he'll ever actually be nominated for president. The first is the obvious one, which is that it's almost always a good idea to bet on the field. The second is that Newsom's appeal is calibrated toward cable news. Cable news viewers are a shrinking demographic and increasingly it seems like people who don't watch it are actively hostile to that sort of appeal, viewing it as fake. Witness that last time the Democratic nomination was won by Joe Biden, who had very little of this sort of appeal. If Newsom had been running thirty years ago, I'd think a lot more highly of his chances.

I do also wonder to what extent the Guilfoyle connection might matter here, especially for the extremely online and journalists.

[heatcharger]

heatcharger Atlas Icon ★★★★★ Posts: 4,444

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/biden-drops-out-2024.html Congratulations to President Biden on leaving the arena. It looks like Gavin Newsom will announce his campaign shortly.

The Mikado Moderators ★★★★★ Posts: 50,021

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » Um, guys, why is anyone still talking about Gavin Newsom as a potential candidate? How will he possibly get enough delegates to win the nomination?? This isn't 1968 anymore! This is now obviously a race between Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to face Donald Trump this November.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It was funny to see BRTD in the other thread seriously say Newsom’s infidelity would hurt him.

And you seriously think his Covid restrictions wouldn't hurt him? They went well beyond any other governor in the country and thus were evidentially completely unnecessary.

Honestly the irony of you telling me this is great.

I never supported Newsom's late 2021 Covid restrictions. I was always pretty consistent in saying they should be lifted once the vaccine was widely available.

Newsom sent his kids to school in person and had in person meetings with anti single payer lobbyists at restaurants when everything was shut down, so he never personally followed those restrictions.

[oldtimer]

heatcharger Atlas Icon ★★★★★ Posts: 4,444

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/biden-drops-out-2024.html Congratulations to President Biden on leaving the arena. It looks like Gavin Newsom will announce his campaign shortly.

The Mikado Moderators ★★★★★ Posts: 50,021

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » Um, guys, why is anyone still talking about Gavin Newsom as a potential candidate? How will he possibly get enough delegates to win the nomination?? This isn't 1968 anymore! This is now obviously a race between Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to face Donald Trump this November.

If Biden drops out on April 1st with the primaries being over, Biden's campaign will decide where his delegates go to, not primary voters.

And if Biden dropps out after the Convention, it goes to Harris automatically.

It would be a big "no one voted for X to be my nominee" situation.

[The Mikado]

heatcharger Atlas Icon ★★★★★ Posts: 4,444

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/biden-drops-out-2024.html Congratulations to President Biden on leaving the arena. It looks like Gavin Newsom will announce his campaign shortly.

The Mikado Moderators ★★★★★ Posts: 50,021

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » Um, guys, why is anyone still talking about Gavin Newsom as a potential candidate? How will he possibly get enough delegates to win the nomination?? This isn't 1968 anymore! This is now obviously a race between Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to face Donald Trump this November.

If Biden drops out on April 1st with the primaries being over, Biden's campaign will decide where his delegates go to, not primary voters.

And if Biden dropps out after the Convention, it goes to Harris automatically.

It would be a big "no one voted for X to be my nominee" situation.

Technically if Biden dropped out at that point his delegates become free agents...but the delegates of the Biden campaign will all be people handpicked by the Biden campaign so they'll tend to be people pretty compliant with Biden's instructions. A candidate who dropped out can say who he/she wants the delegates to go to but delegates don't HAVE to follow those instructions.

Anyway, my guess is the delegates hand-selected by the Biden/Harris campaign, deprived of Biden, would go for Harris.

FWIW I think if this happens it's only because Biden literally has a debilitating stroke or heart attack or something (something that's arguably a greater risk for the GOP's rather obese nominee presumptive). He's not going to drop out if he's even remotely physically capable of continuing to run.

[WalterWhite]

Explain to me how Gavin Newsom could win in 2024. Gavin Newsom is too anti-union to have any appeal to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which is becoming an increasing more important faction of the party. Unless Gavin Newson dramatically shifts leftward on policy, there is no reality in which Gavin Newsom could win a Democratic primary.

[dw93]

Explain to me how Gavin Newsom could win in 2024. Gavin Newsom is too anti-union to have any appeal to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which is becoming an increasing more important faction of the party. Unless Gavin Newson dramatically shifts leftward on policy, there is no reality in which Gavin Newsom could win a Democratic primary.

I don't think he'd win a traditional primary. Based on his recent trips to Israel and China, as  well as meeting with donors, I think he's banking on Biden's health forcing him out of the race in the spring of next year and a majority of Biden delegates going his way at the convention.

[°Leprechaun]

heatcharger Atlas Icon ★★★★★ Posts: 4,444

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/biden-drops-out-2024.html Congratulations to President Biden on leaving the arena. It looks like Gavin Newsom will announce his campaign shortly.

The Mikado Moderators ★★★★★ Posts: 50,021

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » Um, guys, why is anyone still talking about Gavin Newsom as a potential candidate? How will he possibly get enough delegates to win the nomination?? This isn't 1968 anymore! This is now obviously a race between Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to face Donald Trump this November.

very interesting 

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Explain to me how Gavin Newsom could win in 2024. Gavin Newsom is too anti-union to have any appeal to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which is becoming an increasing more important faction of the party. Unless Gavin Newson dramatically shifts leftward on policy, there is no reality in which Gavin Newsom could win a Democratic primary.

I don't think he'd win a traditional primary. Based on his recent trips to Israel and China, as  well as meeting with donors, I think he's banking on Biden's health forcing him out of the race in the spring of next year and a majority of Biden delegates going his way at the convention.

He could also just be putting the pieces into place if Biden is forced to drop out. So rather than counting on Biden dropping out, he may just be positioning himself for the possibility of Biden dropping out. "Betting on it" rather than "banking on it", if I have my idioms right.

Personally, I would never vote for a party that would choose Gov. Newsom as a national candidate.

[TheTide]

I'm sure he's egotistical enough to think that his debate with DeSantis will go down alongside the Lincoln-Douglas debates.

[heatcharger]

A new hypothetical primary poll came out showing Biden polling his lowest against Newsom in a head-to-head:

https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1721618085579235329?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...
Team Biden is also starting to take aim at Newsom:

The Hill: Fetterman takes dig at Newsom over White House speculation

Fetterman told the crowd there are two Democrats “running for president right now” in addition to Biden.
“One is a congressman from Minnesota, the other is the governor of California, but only one has the guts to announce it,” Fetterman told the crowd, per NBC News.

The shadow primary is heating up.

[Comrade Funk]

So Fetterman has turned out to be a complete DNC hack

[Ferguson97]

A new hypothetical primary poll came out showing Biden polling his lowest against Newsom in a head-to-head:

https://x.com/usa_polling/status/1721618085579235329

Team Biden is also starting to take aim at Newsom:

The Hill: Fetterman takes dig at Newsom over White House speculation

Fetterman told the crowd there are two Democrats “running for president right now” in addition to Biden.
“One is a congressman from Minnesota, the other is the governor of California, but only one has the guts to announce it,” Fetterman told the crowd, per NBC News.

The shadow primary is heating up.

heatcharger Atlas Icon ★★★★★ Posts: 4,444

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/biden-drops-out-2024.html Congratulations to President Biden on leaving the arena. It looks like Gavin Newsom will announce his campaign shortly.

The Mikado Moderators ★★★★★ Posts: 50,021

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » Um, guys, why is anyone still talking about Gavin Newsom as a potential candidate? How will he possibly get enough delegates to win the nomination?? This isn't 1968 anymore! This is now obviously a race between Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to face Donald Trump this November.

Thinking Biden is a weak candidate is one thing, but you are completely delusional if you think Newsom is going to run against him. It's just wishful thinking on your part.

[heatcharger]

Newsom received lots of media attention from APEC last week. Lost in the discussions about San Francisco was Biden directly praising Newsom, recognizing his potential:

https://twitter.com/breaking911/status/1725282938709737526?s=46&t=J_equ31A3o...

Also, the Newsom-DeSantis debate is set for November 30th. Fox decided against a live audience to make sure DeSantis isn’t too embarrassed, but Newsom will still get plenty of media impressions. Expect plenty of 30-second clips designed for X and Facebook consumption.

MSNBC Democrats are gonna enjoy seeing him.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/brodiesmom68/status/1726676556607901777?s=46&t=J_equ31A3...

[The Mikado]

Gavin Newsom to Rob DeSantis:

"There's one thing we have in common. Neither of us is going to be our party's 2024 Presidential nominee."

Apparently some people here:

"Hm, he sure sounds like he's running."

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Newsom comes off as sly, evasive, and creepy. DeSantis is awkard, annoying, and just unlikeable. Biden and Trump are far better candidates than these clowns.

[Redban]

Newsom's hair and smile make him look like a used car salesman. They need to do something about that to have him look presidential

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Newsom's hair and smile make him look like a used car salesman. They need to do something about that to have him look presidential

It's a ploy to win over Republican voters.

[2016]

Newsom's hair and smile make him look like a used car salesman. They need to do something about that to have him look presidential

Let's be quite honest: Ron DeSantis destroyed that hair geel oiled salesman Newsom yesterday Night.

Hillary Clintons former Pollster Mark Penn said quote "DeSantis had the best Night of his entire Campaign".

[Redban]

DeSantis was very good in the debate. He had some hard shots. He seemed very prepared. Debates are much better with just 2 people

[2016]

DeSantis was very good in the debate. He had some hard shots. He seemed very prepared. Debates are much better with just 2 people

Yeah I agree with that. Would like to have 1 v 1 DeSantis/Haley Debate. Vivek and Christie are just sideshows.

I am pretty convincted DeSantis would smack down Nikki 1 v 1 as well.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is why I suggested that Biden should challenge each of the serious Republican candidates to a 1-on-1 debate before the primaries start.