Let’s talk about Gavin Newsom 2024.

[heatcharger]

This is a thread to watch the potential candidacy of Gavin Newsom (D-CA).

He’s running. It’s just a question of 2024 or 2028. A few points:

Veto of gender affirmation bill

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1705719244648755460?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC9D3XQGF...

This veto in a vacuum is not all that significant. But I know this is the work of someone who wants to win elections outside of California. He faces potential pushback from activists in the base, but a Democrat risking that is a Democrat trying to win independents in swing states.

Candid COVID talk

A few weeks ago he spoke the most candidly I’ve heard any Democrat in power talk about the COVID regime. Source

He still dodged accountability for his actions, but he voiced a mainstream viewpoint on how the pandemic went. While lockdown fans still defend the strictest restrictions, even many liberals acknowledge there were some things that went too far. Or went on too long. That’s how a lot of people feel, but they’d prefer to just move on entirely. By saying “we would’ve done things differently” he’s aligning himself with how most people feel about the pandemic.

Regular media appearances on Fox News

He’s relentlessly attacked DeSantis for months. So of course he’s at the GOP debate — while GOP politicians often criticize blue state governance, Democratic governors rarely respond. You don’t hear Josh Shapiro criticizing Mississippi’s performance. Newsom is different. He’s gone after DeSantis and Florida’s record on Covid, abortion and education among other things. He’s making the argument against putting Republicans in power — something California politicians don’t really need to do.

He was also just on Hannity after the GOP debate that oil production is actually up:

https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1707244116432568595?s=46&t=J_equ31A3oC9D3XQG...

That’s a signal to independents that he isn’t too far left on energy. Again, these are moves of someone trying to win Pennsylvania, not California.

Upcoming debate with Ron DeSantis

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1706382903083499560?s=46&t=J_equ31A3...

I have a feeling he’s gonna win that debate. He knows DeSantis has a wooden personality. More importantly, I have a feeling he knows what Democrats are itching for — and what Biden isn’t delivering on. Democrats want a leader. Biden’s age is a proxy issue for how really people feel about him. People think he’s weak. People think he’s not in charge. Leave the partisan online bubbles and you’ll hear plenty of Democrats question Biden’s presence.

In the same way Trump emotionally satisfies Republicans, Obama and Clinton still have a stranglehold on the Democratic Party. And Gavin Newsom is a political salesman in the mold of the three men I just mentioned. The logistics of getting him to be the 2024 Democratic nominee are a little hazy, but the shadow campaign is definitely underway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thanks for starting this thread.
I was not aware of these moves of Newsom's, but they are interesting to see and I wonder what will become of them.
Imo Newsom is positioning himself for 2028.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

He comes across as very sleazy but he is much smarter than Biden and surprisingly a bit more willing to concede on points where dems are not doing well.

[heatcharger]

He comes across as very sleazy but he is much smarter than Biden and surprisingly a bit more willing to concede on points where dems are not doing well.

True. Biden and Newsom are night and day in terms of oratory skills at this point.

We’ll see how loud the calls get for Biden to step aside. People like David Axelrod and James Carville are starting to get nervous about another 14 months of this.

[Lambsbread]

I've never understood his appeal or why he is considered the "candidate in waiting" if Biden steps aside. He is a very generic white guy from California who is very easy to write off as an out of touch coastal elite (especially with the French Laundry story)

Democrats have the most diverse bench of potential candidates they've ever had. There's no need to settle for a guy who looks like a President from a bad TV show.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I've never understood his appeal or why he is considered the "candidate in waiting" if Biden steps aside. He is a very generic white guy from California who is very easy to write off as an out of touch coastal elite (especially with the French Laundry story)

Democrats have the most diverse bench of potential candidates they've ever had. There's no need to settle for a guy who looks like a President from a bad TV show.

There's more to politics than picking someone based on race or gender. That's 5th-grade level analysis. As someone on a political forum, you should have a higher intelligence viewpoint.

He's been governor of the biggest state in America for the past 5 years and he's shown willingness to get outside of his comfort zone and on GOP media. He's intelligent and held his own (even "beat") Hannity in a few discussions. I'm tired of cowards who refuse to ever leave their bubble/basement.

Competence is severely lacking in this white house. We don't have a leader. I have a lot of issues with Gavin Newsom and especially his state, but he may be a big improvement over Biden and I may be less inclined to vote R if he was the D candidate.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Leftists don't wanna admit this, but he'd be a formidable candidate. I'd say he'd be favored in a general election against most candidates, he's sleazy but smart.

[Lambsbread]

I've never understood his appeal or why he is considered the "candidate in waiting" if Biden steps aside. He is a very generic white guy from California who is very easy to write off as an out of touch coastal elite (especially with the French Laundry story)

Democrats have the most diverse bench of potential candidates they've ever had. There's no need to settle for a guy who looks like a President from a bad TV show.

There's more to politics than picking someone based on race or gender. That's 5th-grade level analysis. As someone on a political forum, you should have a higher intelligence viewpoint.

He's been governor of the biggest state in America for the past 5 years and he's shown willingness to get outside of his comfort zone and on GOP media. He's intelligent and held his own (even "beat") Hannity in a few discussions. I'm tired of cowards who refuse to ever leave their bubble/basement.

Competence is severely lacking in this white house. We don't have a leader. I have a lot of issues with Gavin Newsom and especially his state, but he may be a big improvement over Biden and I may be less inclined to vote R if he was the D candidate.

I appreciate your perspective and I agree that Newsom's willingness to, as you said, step outside of the bubble and speak directly to Fox News in order to undercut the narratives they paint behind his back is a good thing. However, your insinuation about my intelligence was uncalled for and I don't appreciate being talked down to for merely stating that I think Democrats can do better. Especially considering that you freely admit that you may still vote Republican, which is not a great look when your entire argument hinges on competence and leadership, something the modern GOP has a very warped view of.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I've never understood his appeal or why he is considered the "candidate in waiting" if Biden steps aside. He is a very generic white guy from California who is very easy to write off as an out of touch coastal elite (especially with the French Laundry story)

Democrats have the most diverse bench of potential candidates they've ever had. There's no need to settle for a guy who looks like a President from a bad TV show.

There's more to politics than picking someone based on race or gender. That's 5th-grade level analysis. As someone on a political forum, you should have a higher intelligence viewpoint.

He's been governor of the biggest state in America for the past 5 years and he's shown willingness to get outside of his comfort zone and on GOP media. He's intelligent and held his own (even "beat") Hannity in a few discussions. I'm tired of cowards who refuse to ever leave their bubble/basement.

Competence is severely lacking in this white house. We don't have a leader. I have a lot of issues with Gavin Newsom and especially his state, but he may be a big improvement over Biden and I may be less inclined to vote R if he was the D candidate.

Gavin Newsom has spent his life as a lackey for the ultra-rich. To the best of my knowledge, he has basically competent governing skills, but I see no reason to believe he can, or would even be interested in, addressing global warming, wealth inequality, or our weakened justice system and social safety net. And he's certainly going to do nothing about the imminent threat posed by radical Republican terrorism. (Biden isn't doing as much on that front as I'd like, but his choice to leave Garland alone to make his decisions has a lot to recommend it.)

When it comes to a national race, the fact that he is a GOP parody of a Democrat is absolutely relevant. Like Bloomberg before him, I would need to do some real soul-searching to decide if voting for a theoretical Nominee Newsom (like a theoretical Nominee Bloomberg before him) would be something I could do. And I'm uncertain that trying to regain control of an increasingly illegitimate Supreme Court is worth empowering the ultra-rich even more. 

[SWE]

His stated rationale for vetoing the trans rights bill is that he doesn't believe it's the place of the legislator to write legislation and positioning yourself to the right of the median American for nonsensical reasons is not a move you make if you want to win a democratic primary. While he's certainly going to run in 2028, he's not going to be a major player in that election. This is just a repeat of this forum's delusion that George Allen was unbeatable in 2008

[wbrocks67]

He's clearly not running for 2024; if anything he's making sure to do what he can to build Biden up now so that the party respects him more as he probably looks to 2028. Not sure why 2024 is even a question.

I appreciate that someone like him is out there speaking so adamantly about Biden's accomplishments. Other Dems could learn from him. I could care less what his motives are; Dems need to start fighting fire with fire here and Gavin is one of the only Dems right now who is being super assertive like this.

[Sir Mohamed]

He keeps the door open for 2028. Biden is going to be the nominee in 2024 and Newsom will support his reelection.

I know GOPers want to make it happen to embarrass Biden and play the "slick, liberal coastal elitist" card against Newsom, but it's not happening.

[BlueSwan]

Agreed. He is mainly positioning for 2028, BUT he is also positioning himself to be the guy that steps in if Biden has a health scare or something else makes Biden withdraw over the next few months. It can't be ONLY about 2028 or he wouldn't be making all of these moves in 2023.

In other words, if Biden has a health scare next month and decides not to run for reelection, I'd be extremely surprised if Newsom did not throw his hat in the ring.

[The Mikado]

Agreed. He is mainly positioning for 2028, BUT he is also positioning himself to be the guy that steps in if Biden has a health scare or something else makes Biden withdraw over the next few months. It can't be ONLY about 2028 or he wouldn't be making all of these moves in 2023.

It absolutely can. See: Nixon going to the mat campaigning for Goldwater in 64 or Hillary Clinton for Kerry in 04. If you want to run but not THIS time building support with the current nominee is a really good play.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Biden is leading Rs he isn't losing Casey is up 18 pts with Biden

They have Trump at 297 they forgot Rs had control of redistricting in 2016 in all of the rust belt except IL and MN


Rs have lost 5 specials in PA because Ds control Redistricting PA, MI are being gerrymandering like IL except for WI but Johnson isn't on the ballot to overperformrned so Baldwin is gonna win

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Newsom is not running in 2024 and I don't know why Republican hacks on Twitter are so convinced otherwise. Time is running out quickly for ballot access in early primary states. On the other hand, he obviously wants to be president, something which has been clear since he was just the mayor of San Francisco. And I could see him trying to position himself as the backup plan if Biden is incapacitated, though realistically the party would just go with Harris.

But his electoral record is frankly not all that impressive? California voted D+23 in 2012 and D+30 in both 2016 and 2020, but Newsom only won by 24 in 2018 and 18 in 2022, with the latter performance probably dooming several House Democrats. Gretchen Whitmer's performance in Michigan, even against an extremist Republican candidate, was far more impressive--winning by double digits in a Trump 2016 state on a coalition that both cemented Democratic suburban gains and peeled back segments of the Obama-Trump white working class. If you want someone with a more centrist (even libertarian-leaning) record, Jared Polis won re-election by 19 points in a Biden +13 state despite being a literal Redditor who plays League of Legends.

Regardless of what happens in 2024, Gavin Newsom will run in 2028, to be sure, and I think he will flop badly.

[Roronoa D. Law]

He's been playing smart thus far. He's been increasing his profile and is arguably now one of the most recognized Democrat in office. Doing this all by not overshadowing or slighting Biden is a plus among rank and file Democrats. Absent Harris I believe he would be the frontrunner. I could see him doing well with black voters in the south and winning neighboring NV to get an early lead in a 2024 primary.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

His stated rationale for vetoing the trans rights bill is that he doesn't believe it's the place of the legislator to write legislation and positioning yourself to the right of the median American for nonsensical reasons is not a move you make if you want to win a democratic primary. While he's certainly going to run in 2028, he's not going to be a major player in that election. This is just a repeat of this forum's delusion that George Allen was unbeatable in 2008

I don't think the median American thinks that parents should lose custody of their children because they don't want to affirm gender confusion.

[Lief 🗽]

I would be open to supporting him. He’s clearly a very effective speaker, has made clear he’ll stand up to the lunatic left while still governing as a reasonable progressive, and I like how much of a team player he is. But his performance in 2022 was really bad and he’s literally a San Francisco liberal with all the national baggage that comes with. Whitmer or Shapiro or Warnock seem like much better choices.

[heatcharger]

His stated rationale for vetoing the trans rights bill is that he doesn't believe it's the place of the legislator to write legislation and positioning yourself to the right of the median American for nonsensical reasons is not a move you make if you want to win a democratic primary. While he's certainly going to run in 2028, he's not going to be a major player in that election. This is just a repeat of this forum's delusion that George Allen was unbeatable in 2008

I don't think the median American thinks that parents should lose custody of their children because they don't want to affirm gender confusion.

SWE is the type of person who thought “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” was a good thing to say out loud as a politician.

[SWE]

His stated rationale for vetoing the trans rights bill is that he doesn't believe it's the place of the legislator to write legislation and positioning yourself to the right of the median American for nonsensical reasons is not a move you make if you want to win a democratic primary. While he's certainly going to run in 2028, he's not going to be a major player in that election. This is just a repeat of this forum's delusion that George Allen was unbeatable in 2008

I don't think the median American thinks that parents should lose custody of their children because they don't want to affirm gender confusion.

SWE is the type of person who thought “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach” was a good thing to say out loud as a politician.

Source?

[heatcharger]

I know GOPers want to make it happen to embarrass Biden and play the "slick, liberal coastal elitist" card against Newsom, but it's not happening.

The president is a product. Ten years ago I would've definitely said Newsom was too slimy to become president, but he's become a seasoned media player. He was downright chummy with Hannity last night -- this is a guy who knows how to work the media. He's an upper class California man with charisma -- this is natural to him. Biden doesn't even rate in this regard, certainly not at his age.

When Democrats are complaining about the media they're losing. Obama understood this. Newsom lets liberals go back on offense.

And the SF baggage doesn't seem that bad to me. For various reasons, I think Newsom will win landslide numbers with suburban women. Trump vs Biden looks like a cakewalk compared to Trump vs Newsom.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's not. He isn't running and is clearly content with his role as a Biden surrogate.

[Hermit For Peace]

Newsom's predecessor Jerry Brown was someone I liked and respected. I didn't know how Newsom would work out when he became governor. But I like what I see and I'm glad he's the gov of our state. What I like about him is that he is young, full of fire and energy, outspoken, not afraid of anyone, and he's a family man...has 4 children. In my experience Newsom has compassion for the less fortunate members of society...he has a heart. This is my impression of him and I would be the first one in line to vote for him for president. I think he'd be a quick study in the job.

[AltWorlder]

the American Macron?