French Presidential Election; Results Thread (1st round)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it unusual that Sarkozy did so well in Seine-Saint-Denis?

Royal 34.1%
Sarkozy 26.7%
Bayrou 16.7
Le Pen: 9%

That's not Sarkozy doing well at all... it's his worst department in the Paris metropolitan area and by some distance...

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...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[useful idiot]

Is it unusual that Sarkozy did so well in Seine-Saint-Denis?

Royal 34.1%
Sarkozy 26.7%
Bayrou 16.7
Le Pen: 9%

That's not Sarkozy doing well at all... it's his worst department in the Paris metropolitan area and by some distance...

34 to 26 is certainly not bad considering the large margins in other departments around the country. Saint Denis is, correct me if I'm wrong, historically far-left and it's full of muslim immigrants.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok so reports are that there will be a debate this week and next. Anyone know exactly when they will be?

[Harry Hayfield]

Ok so reports are that there will be a debate this week and next. Anyone know exactly when they will be?

May 2nd 2007 (not sure what time though)

[Hash]

De Villiers lost his own region/stronghold in Vendee (he had won Vendee in 1995). He got only 11.8% this time around in Vendee. Wow. that stings.

Oh, and the polls OVERESTIMATED Le Pen? Can you believe that? The 20-4-07 IPSOS poll gave him 13.50%, he got around 11%.

I ask- how do you explain the drastic fall for Le Pen, but also for people like laguiller, nihous, and voynet, all candidates whose parties got around 4-5% in 2002?

[minionofmidas]

Is this accurate?:

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I thought there's a runoff no matter how close the top 2 candidates are.

So if Candidate A was at 45% and runner-up B is at 25%, they would still have a runoff, right? It has to be over 50% to win.

"Close" being a misnomer here. 49-1 would be "close" under this definition while 51-49 wouldn't be.

(tries to imagine a scenario where the second place candidate advances to a runoff on less than 1.5% of the vote. Fails)

[minionofmidas]

Is it unusual that Sarkozy did so well in Seine-Saint-Denis?

Royal 34.1%
Sarkozy 26.7%
Bayrou 16.7
Le Pen: 9%

That's not Sarkozy doing well at all... it's his worst department in the Paris metropolitan area and by some distance...

34 to 26 is certainly not bad considering the large margins in other departments around the country. Saint Denis is, correct me if I'm wrong, historically far-left and it's full of muslim immigrants.

It was Chirac's only third-place showing in 2002, with Jospin first and Le Pen second. He has really collapsed there.

[minionofmidas]

Oh, and the polls OVERESTIMATED Le Pen? Can you believe that? The 20-4-07 IPSOS poll gave him 13.50%, he got around 11%.

They may have been doing a lot of completetly unnecessary correcting...

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I don't. Not yet anyways.

Obviously that FN Lite Sarkozy held a lot of appeal to Le Pen's voters, especially to Le Pen's more affluent voters, so they went back to their original political home in droves.
Now, what we should be asking is... is this appeal an indicator of what Le Pen's remaining voters will be doing in the runoff? Or has Sarkozy run off with, as it were, the FN's right wing (in economic terms), leaving the remaining FN vote less likely to split heavily to him?
Answers in two weeks...

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That's easy - the 2002 runoff. More interesting is why Besancenot held up, actually. (Also, the remnant Green vote got split, along what seem, roughly, to be north-south lines, by Bové.)

[minionofmidas]

Overview of which minor candidates cracked 2 percent where (region names should be read as "all départements in..."):

Top three: everywhere

Le Pen (10.5): everywhere except Wallis & Futunua and Polýnesie

Besancenot (4.1): everywhere except Wallis & Futuna, Nouvelle Calédonie and Polynésie

de Villiers (2.2): Picardie, Haute Normandie, Basse Normandie, Ille et Vilaine, Morbihan, Pays de la Loire, Poitou-Charente, Dordogne, Lot et Garonne, Tarn, Tarn et Garonne, Aveyron, Gard, Vaucluse, Var, Alpes de Haute Provence, Hautes Alpes, Rhone-Alpes except Isère and Rhone, Franche Comté, Alsace, Lorraine except Meurthe et Moselle, Champagne-Ardennes, Bourgogne, Auvergne except Puy de Dôme, Limousin, Centre, Seine et Marne

Buffet (1.9): Nord, Pas de Calais, Aisne, Somme, Seine Maritime, Cotes d'Armor, Dordogne, Landes, Hautes Pyrennées, Ariège, Lot, Languedoc-Roussillon except Lozère, Bouches du Rhone, Alpes de Haute Provence, Ardèche, Meurthe et Moselle, Nièvre, Allier, Puy de Dôme, Limousin, Cher, Indre, Seine-St Denis, Val de Marne, Corse, la Réunion

Voynet (1.6): Ille et Vilaine, Hautes Alpes, Savoie, Haute Savoie, Jura, Alsace, St Pierre & Miquelon

Laguiller (1.3) : Nord, Pas de Calais, Aisne, Somme, Seine Maritime, Ardennes

Bové (1.3): Ariège, Lot, Aveyron, Lozère, Alpes de Haute Provence, Hautes Alpes, Ardèche, St Pierre & Miquelon, Nouvelle Calédonie

Nihous (1.2): Aisne, Oise, Calvados, Manche, Charente Maritime, Landes, Gers, Tarn et Garonne, Lot, Lozère, Alpes de Haute Provence, Ardèche, Cantal, Creuse

Schivardi (0.3): Aude

[Hash]

Schivardi won his hometown of Mailhac with 54%

[Harry Hayfield]

It was working perfectly when I posted it!

[Harry Hayfield]

Which means we can compare 2007 with 2002:

Left Wing Candidates: 26% + 4% + 2% + 1% + 0% = 33% (divided by candidates) = 6.6%

Right Wing Candidates: 31% + 2% = 33% (divided by candidates) = 16.5%

Far Right Wing Candidates: 11%

Other Candidates: 19% + 2% + 1% + 1% = 23% (divided by candidates) = 5.75%

Based on those numbers, this is my assessment of the Second Round:

Right Wing: 31 + 2 = 33% (minimum)
Left Wing: 26 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 0 = 33% (minimum)

Far Right Wing: likely to vote for Royal but could just as easily abstain
Others: Bayrou (19%) for Royal, 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 (5%) unknown

Sarkozy 33%, Royal 52%, 16% (unknown)

Royal wins by 3%

[Verily]

Oh, and the polls OVERESTIMATED Le Pen? Can you believe that? The 20-4-07 IPSOS poll gave him 13.50%, he got around 11%.

I'm guessing that the high turnout consisted entirely of people voting against Le Pen (no matter who they actually voted for), thus his low numbers.

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Because the left was more satisfied with Royal than Jospin (and generally afraid of another 2002), and the right was more satisfied with Sarkozy than Chirac.

[Gustaf]

Which means we can compare 2007 with 2002:

Left Wing Candidates: 26% + 4% + 2% + 1% + 0% = 33% (divided by candidates) = 6.6%

Right Wing Candidates: 31% + 2% = 33% (divided by candidates) = 16.5%

Far Right Wing Candidates: 11%

Other Candidates: 19% + 2% + 1% + 1% = 23% (divided by candidates) = 5.75%

Based on those numbers, this is my assessment of the Second Round:

Right Wing: 31 + 2 = 33% (minimum)
Left Wing: 26 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 0 = 33% (minimum)

Far Right Wing: likely to vote for Royal but could just as easily abstain
Others: Bayrou (19%) for Royal, 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 (5%) unknown

Sarkozy 33%, Royal 52%, 16% (unknown)

Royal wins by 3%

Um. Where do you get this idea? And what is this classification based on exactly?

By my count it's:

Right: 34.4%
Left: 36.5%
Far Right: 10.5%
Centre/Centre-Right: 19%

Now, giving the Far right votes to Sarcozy, which I actually think is the most realistic scenario (some may abstain, but then again so may some of the far leftists. And I think the Le Peners prefer Sarko over Sego about as much as the far leftists prefer Sego over Sarko) makes it:

Right: 44.9%
Left: 36.5%
Centre/Centre-Right: 19%

Royal thus must win two thirds of the mostly right-wing Bayrou voters. I don't see that happening.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is this accurate?:

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I thought there's a runoff no matter how close the top 2 candidates are.

So if Candidate A was at 45% and runner-up B is at 25%, they would still have a runoff, right? It has to be over 50% to win.

"Close" being a misnomer here. 49-1 would be "close" under this definition while 51-49 wouldn't be.

(tries to imagine a scenario where the second place candidate advances to a runoff on less than 1.5% of the vote. Fails)

It's possible if you have 100 candidates!

[ag]

Is this accurate?:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I thought there's a runoff no matter how close the top 2 candidates are.

So if Candidate A was at 45% and runner-up B is at 25%, they would still have a runoff, right? It has to be over 50% to win.

Are there 50,000 officials eligible to sign nomination papers?

"Close" being a misnomer here. 49-1 would be "close" under this definition while 51-49 wouldn't be.

(tries to imagine a scenario where the second place candidate advances to a runoff on less than 1.5% of the vote. Fails)

It's possible if you have 100 candidates!

[afleitch]

For the sake of completion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results for the 20 largest communes:

Paris: Sarkozy 35.05%, Royal 31.75%, Bayrou 20.73%, Le Pen 4.58%
Marseille: Sarkozy 34.25%, Royal 27.11%, Bayrou 14.1%, Le Pen 13.43%
Lyon: Sarkozy 34.46%, Royal 27.29%, Bayrou 22.09%, Le Pen 6.47%
Toulouse: Royal 36.15%, Sarkozy 26.75%, Bayrou 19.21%, Le Pen 6.35%
Nice: Sarkozy 41.83%, Royal 20.42%, Bayrou 14.57%, Le Pen 13.74%
Nantes: Royal 34.8%, Sarkozy 27.69%, Bayrou 20.88%, Le Pen 4.77%
Strasbourg: Sarkozy 31.26%, Royal 29.03%, Bayrou 22.36%, Le Pen 8.09%
Montpellier: Royal 34.58%, Sarkozy 27.65%, Bayrou 17.47%, Le Pen 8.77%
Bordeaux: Royal 31.37%, Sarkozy 30.84%, Bayrou 22.01%, Le Pen 5.42%
Lille: Royal 32.98%, Sarkozy 26.4%, Bayrou 18.53%, Le Pen 9.13%
Rennes: Royal 38.02%, Sarkozy 23.24%, Bayrou 22.26%, Besancenot 4.45%, Le Pen 4.01%
Le Havre: Sarkozy 28.96%, Royal 26.77%, Bayrou 16.07%, Le Pen 11.05%, Besancenot 6.28%
Reims: Sarkozy 30.94%, Royal 26.41%, Bayrou 18.61%, Le Pen 10.88%
Saint-Etienne: Royal 29.34%, Sarkozy 27.87%, Bayrou 19.39%, Le Pen 10.37%
Toulon: Sarkozy 38.24%, Royal 20.88%, Bayrou 15.63%, Le Pen 13.53%
Grenoble: Royal 36.31%, Sarkozy 26.78%, Bayrou 19.66%, Le Pen 5.59%
Angers: Royal 29.31%, Sarkozy 29.17%, Bayrou 23.49%, Le Pen 5.21%
Dijon: Sarkozy 32.5%, Royal 28.29%, Bayrou 19.69%, Le Pen 8.1%
Brest: Royal 33.2%, Sarkozy 26.88%, Bayrou 20.98%, Le Pen 6.0%, Besancenot: 5.09%
Le Mans: Royal 31.67%, Sarkozy 26.63%, Bayrou 19.76%, Le Pen 6.94%, Besancenot: 5.27%

And the result for the Paris suburb of Clichy-sous-Bois for just the two leading candidates... Royal 41.63%, Sarkozy 24.51%.

[Keystone Phil]

Is it weird that a right wing candidate, who is actually seen as being an extremist, won Paris? Actually, isn't it weird that he came out on top in all the major cities?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it weird that a right wing candidate, who is actually seen as being an extremist, won Paris?

Not at all. Paris is traditionally a right-wing city.

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Toulouse, Nantes, Bordeaux and Lille aren't major cities now?

[Keystone Phil]

Toulouse, Nantes, Bordeaux and Lille aren't major cities now?

Uh, well, excuse me. I was referring to Marseille, Lyon and Nice as I believe that they are the biggest cities (along with Paris). I don't know enough about the population of the others. My sincerest apologies.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because the left was more satisfied with Royal than Jospin (and generally afraid of another 2002), and the right was more satisfied with Sarkozy than Chirac.

I also wonder how many people voted for Royal on looks.

[Gabu]

Is it weird that a right wing candidate, who is actually seen as being an extremist, won Paris?

If I recall correctly, wasn't Chirac mayor of Paris before being elected president?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Toulouse, Nantes, Bordeaux and Lille aren't major cities now?

Uh, well, excuse me. I was referring to Marseille, Lyon and Nice as I believe that they are the biggest cities (along with Paris). I don't know enough about the population of the others. My sincerest apologies.

No need to act slighted when no slight was intended.

The list was in order of population (I think), btw.