French Presidential Election; Results Thread (1st round)

[CARLHAYDEN]

I was comparing the final predictions of 12 posters, and found the following accuracy ranking (using BBC numbers).

Tied for first place, Democratic Hawk, Keystone Phil and yours truly.

Tied for fourth, Kireev and Tobias Beecher.

Sixth was Harry Haller.

Seventh was Sarkozy.

Eighth was Sam Spade.

Ninth was Gustaf

Tied for tenth were Gully Foyle and Lewis Trondheim

Twelveth was Verily.

Since his last prediction post actually contained two seperate predictions, the latter of which was a range, I omitted Umengus from the list.

Now, both Sarkozy and Keystone Phil were very close in predicting Sarkozy's percentage.

Democratic Hawk was extremely close in predicting Royal's percentage.

Harry Haller had the best prediction for Bayrou.

I had the closest prediction for Le Pen.

[afleitch]

http://www.geoclip.fr/an/p241_atlasfrance.php

Updated the demo of France with some 2007 stats, including down to muncipality level

[afleitch]

Segolene county by county

[afleitch]

And now Sarkozy

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting to see the sectarian voting patterns in and around the Cevannes.

[ThePrezMex]

afleitch, thanks for all the maps!!

It's definitely above average for Royal in Bretagne, isn't it? Do we know why could that be?

While I agree that Bayrou voters will be the most important to determine the winner of the run-off, I also think that we would need to analyze Le Pen's voters, i.e., given his collapse (and since we could argue that many of his 2002 voters already switched to Sarkozy), who are the ones who still voted for him (agewise, etc)? would they be easily ready to vote for Sarkozy or would they prefer to abstain?
Again, I think Sarkozy has the advantage as he would be in a better position to get the majority of Bayrou's voters (as some polls are suggesting already) - but in a scenario in which Royal gets them, the above mentioned analysis would be relevant.
Standard political theory would indicate that Royal needs to move rightwards and Sarkozy stay still, right?

[afleitch]

It's definitely above average for Royal in Bretagne, isn't it? Do we know why could that be?

Bayrou

[afleitch]

Bayrou

[2952-0-0]

Interesting to see Sarkozy's awful performance in the 93...guess we know why...

And what's with Corsica and its voting patterns? Does anyone know how the DOM-TOM voted, and how the expatriate population voted?

[kireev]

Excellent maps! Thanks a lot! Is Le Pen coming soon?

Bayrou

[PGSable]

Interesting to see Sarkozy's awful performance in the 93...guess we know why...

And what's with Corsica and its voting patterns? Does anyone know how the DOM-TOM voted, and how the expatriate population voted?

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/sections/a_votre_service/resultats-elections/PR2007/index.html

According to the Interior Ministry's website, Royal carried Martinique, Réunion, and Saint-Pierre-and-Miquelin, while Sarkozy won Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Mayotte, Wallis-and-Futuna, French Polynesia, and New Caledonia.


http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/sections/a_votre_service/resultats-elections/PR2007/000/099/99.html

The expatriate electorate gave Sarkozy 38.5%, Royal 29.9%, and Bayrou 21.5%. I think Sarkozy won 55% of the votes cast at the New York City consulate, against roughly 20% for Royal, 10% for Bayrou, and 10% for Le Pen.

[Sam Spade]

I said my prediction was going to be terrible, and it was.  I really didn't study the polling on this one more than a furtive glance.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I said my prediction was going to be terrible, and it was.  I really didn't study the polling on this one more than a furtive glance.

Even the polls were signifcantly wrong.

It appears that about a quarter of the vote the polls showed going to Le Pen actually went to Sarkozy.

Also, I don't know of anybody who predicted such a high turnout.

[Hash]

i'd like the Riyadh voting booth results.

[Hatman 🍁]

How did Montreal vote? They have the highest number of French citizens outside of France.

[cp]

Mostly for Royal. I saw the numbers on cyberpresse earlier but they've since been buried. I think it was something like 70% for Royal. Expat socialists. Go fig.

[minionofmidas]

I was comparing the final predictions of 12 posters, and found the following accuracy ranking (using BBC numbers).

Tied for first place, Democratic Hawk, Keystone Phil and yours truly.

Tied for fourth, Kireev and Tobias Beecher.

Sixth was Harry Haller.

Seventh was Sarkozy.

Eighth was Sam Spade.

Ninth was Gustaf

Tied for tenth were Gully Foyle and Lewis Trondheim

Twelveth was Verily.

Since his last prediction post actually contained two seperate predictions, the latter of which was a range, I omitted Umengus from the list.

Now, both Sarkozy and Keystone Phil were very close in predicting Sarkozy's percentage.

Democratic Hawk was extremely close in predicting Royal's percentage.

Harry Haller had the best prediction for Bayrou.

I had the closest prediction for Le Pen.

Eh... I was pretty good on Royal and Bayrou... and also on (Sarkozy+Le Pen combined)...

[minionofmidas]

Total Result
Turnout 83.8%
Sarkozy 31.2%
Royal 25.9%
Bayrou 18.6%
Le Pen 10.4%

French Abroad Result
Turnout 40.3%
Sarkozy 38.5%
Royal 29.9%
Bayrou 21.5%
Le Pen 3.3%

Result Excluding French Abroad
Turnout 84.6%
Sarkozy 31.1%
Royal 25.8%
Bayrou 18.6%
Le Pen 10.5%

Result DOMs, TOMs and CTs
Turnout 64.5%
Royal 39.7% (la Réunion is much the largest of these, and provides well over 100% of Royal's margin of victory here)
Sarkozy 33.7%
Bayrou 10.4%
Le Pen 3.7%

Result Metropolitan France (incl. Corse)
Turnout 85.3%
Sarkozy 31.0%
Royal 25.4%
Bayrou 18.8%
Le Pen 10.7%

And since Corsican turnout was lower than that of any mainland department...

Result Corse
Turnout 75.5%
Sarkozy 37.0%
Royal 21.8%
Le Pen 15.3% (he held his 2002 share here, btw.)
Bayrou 12.4%

Result Mainland France
Turnout 85.4%
(percentages as when including Corse - its' population is not very large)

[Hatman 🍁]

Mostly for Royal. I saw the numbers on cyberpresse earlier but they've since been buried. I think it was something like 70% for Royal. Expat socialists. Go fig.

Woo!

I know a guy who lives here in Ottawa South who is in the NDP, but he's from France and he's also a member of PS. I had a good discussion with him about Mme.  Royal, and he said she was from the left of the party (while he was from the right). We also talked about how her statements on Quebec sovereignty were taken out of context.

[Verily]

I was comparing the final predictions of 12 posters, and found the following accuracy ranking (using BBC numbers).

Tied for first place, Democratic Hawk, Keystone Phil and yours truly.

Tied for fourth, Kireev and Tobias Beecher.

Sixth was Harry Haller.

Seventh was Sarkozy.

Eighth was Sam Spade.

Ninth was Gustaf

Tied for tenth were Gully Foyle and Lewis Trondheim

Twelveth was Verily.

Since his last prediction post actually contained two seperate predictions, the latter of which was a range, I omitted Umengus from the list.

Now, both Sarkozy and Keystone Phil were very close in predicting Sarkozy's percentage.

Democratic Hawk was extremely close in predicting Royal's percentage.

Harry Haller had the best prediction for Bayrou.

I had the closest prediction for Le Pen.

Yay for last! As my prediction was less a prediction and more of a fit of optimism, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised.

[Gustaf]

Well, I thought Le Pen would over-perform compared to his polls when he in fact underperformed. Who could have guessed? (and, yes, some did, I know... )

[Bono]

Mostly for Royal. I saw the numbers on cyberpresse earlier but they've since been buried. I think it was something like 70% for Royal. Expat socialists. Go fig.

Well, they were in Montreal. Not that surprising.

[ThePrezMex]

Le Figaro is reporting this new poll by Sofres about the run-off:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-sondage/20070424.WWW000000442_sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html

This is somewhat good news for Royal
According to this, Sarkozy would get 51% and Royal 49%.
46% of Bayrou's voters said they would vote for Royal; only 25% for Sarkozy!!! and 29% didn't say.
62% of Le Pen voters would support Sarkozy and 16% Royal.
However, 72% of the people think Sarkozy is going to win at the end.

On another note, apparently Royal has offered Bayrou that she would name some UDF ministers if he supports her. Just as it was natural to predict, she's trying to move to the center now.

[Verily]

Le Figaro is reporting this new poll by Sofres about the run-off:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentielle-sondage/20070424.WWW000000442_sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html

This is somewhat good news for Royal
According to this, Sarkozy would get 51% and Royal 49%.
46% of Bayrou's voters said they would vote for Royal; only 25% for Sarkozy!!! and 29% didn't say.
62% of Le Pen voters would support Sarkozy and 16% Royal.
However, 72% of the people think Sarkozy is going to win at the end.

On another note, apparently Royal has offered Bayrou that she would name some UDF ministers if he supports her. Just as it was natural to predict, she's trying to move to the center now.

Interesting. The Left Radical Party (which, despite its name, is neither left nor radical) is very close politically to Bayrou's UDF and is a current member of the United Left, so it's certainly ideologically possible. Would Bayrou be willing to work with the Communists and the hopelessly hippy Verts, however?

[afleitch]

The results for Paris by 'conscription' (assembly seat)