New polling shows declining acceptance of transgenderism

[7,052,770]

Finally, I'd like to point out the irony of OSR saying I just don't know what's going on because I live in Mississippi by reminding him of this post where somehow in May 2023 he didn't know that puberty blockers were being banned across the red states.

Given that gender affirming care such as blockers aren’t banned for anyone under the age of 16/18 then this point does not make sense . If there was a strict age limit on gender affirming care , then this point makes sense otherwise it doesn’t . Like it’s pretty obvious social transition in many cases is setting the stage for gender affirming care so yes parents absolutely should know .

It's great that you live in a state that doesn't make gender-affirming care illegal, but that's not the reality for half of the country anymore.

[It’s so Joever]

Since OSR loves the UK so much maybe we should create an NHS!

[jojoju1998]

Since OSR loves the UK so much maybe we should create an NHS!

Ironically, having a NHS would be a boon to culture warriors, since they could directly control healthcare policy, and restrict services.

[kaoras]

"Transgenderism" then is not analogous to the Gay rights movement of the 2000s. It is closer to the Christian Right or the anti-Video game, anti-Drug left of the 1990s. They represent the reason your favorite TV shows, whether old(the Simpsons) or new are all awful. They represent why movies are poorly written. Why RPGS have party members who exist to give you long monologues about trauma that can only be solved by you screwing them. It is identified with the culture war.

As a huge RPG nerd, this part is so breathtakingly stupid that I just can't even...

Sure buddy, trans people are the reason you literally went to Cloud mind to put together the pieces of his trauma in 1997 or that western RPGs are full of dialogue or that you can screw party members.

RPGs are literally the worst genre to try to make your stupid point. Maybe by the time Persona lets you be gay Western RPGs are going to start forcing you in a relationship with a trans character lol.

[It’s so Joever]

"Transgenderism" then is not analogous to the Gay rights movement of the 2000s. It is closer to the Christian Right or the anti-Video game, anti-Drug left of the 1990s. They represent the reason your favorite TV shows, whether old(the Simpsons) or new are all awful. They represent why movies are poorly written. Why RPGS have party members who exist to give you long monologues about trauma that can only be solved by you screwing them. It is identified with the culture war.

As a huge RPG nerd, this part is so breathtakingly stupid that I just can't even...

Sure buddy, trans people are the reason you literally went to Cloud mind to put together the pieces of his trauma in 1997 or that western RPGs are full of dialogue or that you can screw party members.

RPGs are literally the worst genre to try to make your stupid point. Maybe by the time Persona lets you be gay Western RPGs are going to start forcing you in a relationship with a trans character lol.

The existence of the trans rights movement is the reason I have to pay Robux for a mega neon ultra rare pet!

[OSR stands with Israel]

We were once told that the GOP is moderating on social issues

They absolutely have , just look at what they supported when it came to social issues during the Bush years

[Ferguson97]

We were once told that the GOP is moderating on social issues

They absolutely have , just look at what they supported when it came to social issues during the Bush years

The way in which conservatives talk about trans people today is identical to how they talked about gay people in the 2000s. Trading one punching bag for another is not moderation.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

B. Places Atlas, by prohibiting the expression of support for views held by the majority of Americans, outside the political mainstream not only in terms of what views Atlas members do hold but in terms of what views Atlas members are permitted to express. This seems like an undesirable position for a elections and political discussion forum to hold.

How far does that logic stretch? If society begins supporting something unethical, should Atlas bend with the public? Let's take it to an extreme for the purposes of testing that logic. What if support for removing women's rights to vote skyrockets to 65%? What if support for removing illegal immigrants' legal rights not to be physically assaulted or raped rises to 70%? Should Atlas bend it's policies to accomodate that? Where are you drawing the line here?

Atlas should allow discussion of all political beliefs. But yes, if those beliefs became more popular, it would be particularly valuable to allow those to be debated.

[DaleCooper]

1. There is a difference between gender identity and sexual orientation and trying to conflate the two is ridiculous . I don’t think schools should reveal a kid’s sexual orientation to parents because that’s not a potential medical issue while gender identity is . So these issues are very very different  and comparing them is ridiculous

they really aren't

I think they are fairly different issues but he doesn't understand either of them.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I have substantively pro-trans positions on most of the issues under discussion here. I also think those positions were advocated pretty poorly in the second half of the 2010s and the trans community, speaking as someone trans-adjacent but not really Involved myself, hasn't really recovered from that. I'm not sure why people in this thread who agree with me on the substance of this issue area seem to be treating it as imperative to insist that 1. current messaging and strategy is fine and 2. polls showing that it might not be working can and should be assumed to be factually wrong, but I don't think it's a very good idea. I think it's a very bad idea, actually. I think it's the equivalent of police reformers two or three years ago insisting that we absolutely had to keep saying "Defund the Police" and then explain that it doesn't mean what it might sound like it means, rather than just changing the slogan. Police budgets ended up going up in many big cities after that issue was had out, even though police reformers had started from a position of strength in terms of public opinion.

Since the forum's own speech policy on this has been brought up, I'll link to my explanation of the decision-making that went into it:

The policy is the way it is because it required unanimity among the mods. Those of us who thought that we needed an explicit policy didn't agree on how normative it should be about polite left-of-center opinion, and we also had to convince the mods who didn't think there had to be an explicit policy at all.

[Ferguson97]

Atlas should allow discussion of all political beliefs. But yes, if those beliefs became more popular, it would be particularly valuable to allow those to be debated.

Does that include, for example, whether or not the white race is superior?

[T'Chenka]

Atlas should allow discussion of all political beliefs. But yes, if those beliefs became more popular, it would be particularly valuable to allow those to be debated.

Does that include, for example, whether or not the white race is superior?

I directly asked him about taking things to their logical extent and drawing a line somewhere, and that is how he responded. So, yes, it would include that. It would also include things like whether or not the holocaust was moral, whether racial segregation should be re-introduced, and whether rape of women should be legal if the woman was "asking for it". Oh, I almost forgot... it would include discussions about legalizing the lynching trans people and drag queens.

[Dan the Roman]

"Transgenderism" then is not analogous to the Gay rights movement of the 2000s. It is closer to the Christian Right or the anti-Video game, anti-Drug left of the 1990s. They represent the reason your favorite TV shows, whether old(the Simpsons) or new are all awful. They represent why movies are poorly written. Why RPGS have party members who exist to give you long monologues about trauma that can only be solved by you screwing them. It is identified with the culture war.

As a huge RPG nerd, this part is so breathtakingly stupid that I just can't even...

Sure buddy, trans people are the reason you literally went to Cloud mind to put together the pieces of his trauma in 1997 or that western RPGs are full of dialogue or that you can screw party members.

RPGs are literally the worst genre to try to make your stupid point. Maybe by the time Persona lets you be gay Western RPGs are going to start forcing you in a relationship with a trans character lol.

That line was intended as sarcasm.

But it is also my point. If the next Persona adds a Trans romance, it will produce a general backlash where the left will claim it is tokenistic and the right will insist it is woke, being ruined, and Persona 3-5 were much better.

The nature of this culture war is different from the gay rights movement and in many ways closer to the one the Jews had at dangerous times in their past. The perception of Trans issues among those who have become more hostile since 2017 is overwhelmingly one not of a vulnerable minority but rather of an astroturf being pushed by institutions.

There is a reason the backlash is showing up on the conspiratorial left as well as the right. It is also why Dylan Mulvaney triggered the backlash. There is no more pure, capitalist product imaginable.

Does this describe most voters? No. But it does describe the 15% or so who have changed their positions negatively.

Trans advocacy has to become about trans people again. It has to cease being about how many medical associations, experts, corporations, celebrities, etc support it.

[Comrade Funk]

"Transgenderism" then is not analogous to the Gay rights movement of the 2000s. It is closer to the Christian Right or the anti-Video game, anti-Drug left of the 1990s. They represent the reason your favorite TV shows, whether old(the Simpsons) or new are all awful. They represent why movies are poorly written. Why RPGS have party members who exist to give you long monologues about trauma that can only be solved by you screwing them. It is identified with the culture war.

As a huge RPG nerd, this part is so breathtakingly stupid that I just can't even...

Sure buddy, trans people are the reason you literally went to Cloud mind to put together the pieces of his trauma in 1997 or that western RPGs are full of dialogue or that you can screw party members.

RPGs are literally the worst genre to try to make your stupid point. Maybe by the time Persona lets you be gay Western RPGs are going to start forcing you in a relationship with a trans character lol.

That line was intended as sarcasm.

But it is also my point. If the next Persona adds a Trans romance, it will produce a general backlash where the left will claim it is tokenistic and the right will insist it is woke, being ruined, and Persona 3-5 were much better.

The nature of this culture war is different from the gay rights movement and in many ways closer to the one the Jews had at dangerous times in their past. The perception of Trans issues among those who have become more hostile since 2017 is overwhelmingly one not of a vulnerable minority but rather of an astroturf being pushed by institutions.

There is a reason the backlash is showing up on the conspiratorial left as well as the right. It is also why Dylan Mulvaney triggered the backlash. There is no more pure, capitalist product imaginable.

Does this describe most voters? No. But it does describe the 15% or so who have changed their positions negatively.

Trans advocacy has to become about trans people again. It has to cease being about how many medical associations, experts, corporations, celebrities, etc support it.

If people are triggered by a beer ad, they never cared about freedom to begin with. What an insane reason to become a bigot.

[afleitch]

I'm not sure why people in this thread who agree with me on the substance of this issue area seem to be treating it as imperative to insist that 1. current messaging and strategy is fine and 2. polls showing that it might not be working can and should be assumed to be factually wrong.

Trans 'messaging' has effectively been silenced. There's no recourse at the moment to revisit it because it's not platformed. 'Trans person drinks beer' was enough to cost a company hundreds of millions of dollars in backlash.

Daily existence, however mundane, is perceived as some sort of pernicious activism.

What's worse is that with the gays, the worst 'populist' position was 'I don't want to see it'. With trans people, it's very close to being 'you shouldn't be one.'

I do think it is a short term regression. But of course it worries me.

I think when the next electoral cycles in the USA and the UK tick over and it's had no impact on the outcome of either, and platforms are vacated, trans folk can take some control back of the messaging. I think given how diverse younger generations are, the continued moral panic is unsustainable.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I am not going to comment on the correctness of the views shown in this poll. I will, however, note that under Atlas rules, to state "that transgenderism is an illness, mental condition, or deviant behavior" is prohibited. To my interpretation, this

A. Prohibits any forum posters from expressing agreement with the views shown in this poll

B. Places Atlas, by prohibiting the expression of support for views held by the majority of Americans, outside the political mainstream not only in terms of what views Atlas members do hold but in terms of what views Atlas members are permitted to express. This seems like an undesirable position for a elections and political discussion forum to hold.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=286404.525

Atlas should immediately retract this policy to allow for genuine debate and discussion.

I agree that it should not be a rule. As a trans girl myself, I think its stupid to assume that we'll break down crying or whatever because someone posted an opinion online that is held by the majority of the public, even if I totally disagree with the opinion.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

To elaborate on Dan the Roman's point, I think it's worth noting that as a general tendency people don't like to be told what to do, and thus social movements based on restricting peoples' access to things almost always fail in the end. They might develop some steam and success for a bit, but it's always temporary. Look at Prohibition for possibly the original example. He cites the Religious Right and some more puritanical Democrats in the 90s, both good examples. Second-wave feminists are another example, they were successful in many ways in many things, but trying to restrict access to pornography was definitely not one of them even pre-Internet, they also initially protested restaurants like Hooters too, that obviously went nowhere. The PMRC completely bombed with evidence being that now the biggest pop star on the planet who's considered the type of wholesome woman that moms and their 13-year old daughters would go see together if they could afford tickets has those very Parental Advisory notices on the physical media of her most recent albums (yes, Taylor Swift's random f bombs in her lyrics on those are pretty tame in comparison to most of the stuff they railed against, but regardless the scenario would've been unthinkable in the PMRC's day.) For a rather brief but also recent example, the extreme Covid hawks who insisted on mask wearing of even fully vaccinated people also failed, and while such mask mandates and social distancing measures were always going to be temporary policies, the fact that mask wearing cratered a year before the Covid emergency officially ended is notable.

So one can conclude that if the main issue of this culture war was just the right getting upset about trans characters in media and trying to censor trans-friendly media, they'd lose just as they lost in the same regards with gay and lesbian representation in media. And before you say "they are", well that's not wrong but more on that later.

The trans movement though has kind of tied itself in with a restrictive side. For an example I know you'll all think I love, take the Family Guy episode "Quagmire's Dad", which is actually a pretty sympathetic portrayal of a trans character and kind of follows the format of the given example of Mel Brooks mocking anti-Semitism. It still got ravaged and attacked by trans activists. Another recent and local example would be Dave Chappelle. When he announced a surprise show in Minneapolis that sold out almost instantly, massive pressure on the venue forced it to be moved, and then protesters showed up at the new location. A photo of a woman flipping off the protesters went viral briefly. And in local discussion...most people thought the protesters were losers. Again, this is Minneapolis, so definitely not a conservative or trans-unfriendly location. Even trans people were saying it's a bad look and if you look at any photos from the protest, they do come across as whiny killjoys while the people in line are just wanting to have a good time and being hassled, it's not much different than when religious right protesters do something like that. Lindsay Ellis who is actually an extremely trans-friendly individual is another unfortunate example.

Another example of course is the language policing and trying to insist on always gender-neutral terms, resulting in things like "birthing people" instead of saying "women" in regards to pregnancy but this also shows that such restrictions always lose. You don't really hear this that much anymore. The Supreme Court decision was kind of a turning point on it because it made it look like a trivial concern no doubt, but the sheer mockery of such things even in a center-left context made it difficult to continue unironically pushing. The fact is there was never going to be a situation where someone saying "women" when talking about pregnancy would be universally demonized and reviled outside of conservative persecution fantasies and you can argue that was never even really the goal of people promoting the gender-neutral language anyway, but it's all regarded as a quaint joke now. Even on Twitter of all places if you search for "birthing people" now it's almost all mocking the term in the results. This push failed.

Now in regards to the aforementioned point that the conservatives are trying to be censoring and restrictive as well. This is a pretty rare culture war issue where both sides are actually pushing for restrictions. I've noted before that Ron DeSantis' agenda kind of completely killed the potential GOP electoral advantage on these issues, and that the equivalent of some of the stuff he put in place would be like a Democratic governor actually mandating that 3rd graders view drag shows or firing teachers for wearing crosses or mentioning that they're a Christian, stuff that's so outlandish and out there it's impossible to actually imagine it realistically happening. Yes they complaining about trans representation in media also completely fails, (in fact we probably should just accept that attacking media works and organizing boycotts will almost always be counterproductive due to the Streisand Effect.) But I think the difference is that for a lot of people (and presumably the people whose opinion shifted here) they never really expected any better from them. Social conservatives have long been regarded as killjoys and never particularly popular, even if they hold outsized (although heavily declined in recent years) political influence due to various factors and their organization. If the gay rights movement ever took the same sort of equivalent position here and sort of a "religious right in reverse" in regards to protesting media, you might see drops in acceptance of this as well. Look at how Cynthia Nixon's campaign used some of the worst language ever in arguing for marijuana legalization. She was never going to win anyway even against the despised Cuomo, but she managed to alienate white males by supporting marijuana legalization which is like a political failure that's almost an impressive accomplishment in itself like The Room is to filmmaking. If marijuana legalization advocates used her wording widespread, would there be anywhere near as much success to it as there has been? I think the answer is an obvious.

All that being said, there are still two key and very relevant points, one is that the vast majority of trans people are not like this and really just want to be left alone like the average person. The other is that the right-wing counter push is also doomed to fail eventually as well like I covered above. So based on those points, yes in time acceptance of trans people will probably grow and this will be a blip on a long term trend. This form of the trans rights movement is going to fail, but the greater trans rights movement probably will win in the end long term. But when that happens, it will probably look nothing like it does now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Atlas should allow discussion of all political beliefs. But yes, if those beliefs became more popular, it would be particularly valuable to allow those to be debated.

Does that include, for example, whether or not the white race is superior?

A 1950s and 1960s version of Atlas would probably have segregationists on there and given how big of an issue it was , those posters shouldn’t be banned either . At the end of the day this is a political forum and the biggest issues of the day should be allowed to be debated similarly to how it IRL even if yes the other side of the debate is holding terrible positions.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As a bit of an addendum to the above, I think the trans rights movement has effectively wedded itself to some pretty extreme out there movements that at best are only tangentially related to trans rights but have become almost just as much as part of their core activism as things like opposing a DeSantis-like agenda. To piggyback on above comment, there was a huge overlap between trans activists and the hardcore Covid hawks, Arthur Chu, probably the single most deranged one of them all (to be fair he was considered extreme and deranged by even most other Covid hawk people) wasn't trans but he was known to be quite a hardliner railing against people for buying any Harry Potter merchandise and the like before he became known for that. And there were plenty of trans activists screeching about how you have to wear a mask or you're literally killing trans people even if fully vaccinated. That sort of stuff has mostly faded completely, but it was at the forefront of politics for awhile.

Or take police. Trans activists are rarely anything other the most extreme raging "ACAB" types and imply that you can't be an ally unless you are too. This isn't even talking about holding police accountable for misconduct or mainstream reform measures, nothing less than at least "Defund the Police'-like rhetoric will do. It's very very obvious just how offputting this is and how much of a colossal failure this campaign has been due to its rhetoric but it remains. The gay rights movement may have never been on particularly friendly grounds with cops for most of its history, but its prominent activists never sounded like a teenage "anarchist" edgelord in loud anti-police rhetoric. This is despite the fact that at this point police are far more likely to investigate anti-trans violence and hold perpetrators accountable than be instigators of it. There's no nuance on this, when asked for it there's just a doubling down, "ACAB includes queer cops too!" or even "ACAB includes EMTs and 911 operators!" Can you support trans rights and also (a year ago) support promoting the Covid vaccine while also encouraging a return to normalcy and dropping of masks and social distancing, and (years ago and still today) support police reform measures and efforts to increase police accountability while not being outright pugilistic and condemning of police as a whole? Of course (and this is even ignoring that even more conservative positions on these issues don't necessarily contradict trans rights), and in fact this is probably the viewpoint of the vast majority of trans rights supporters. But if the loudest ones are not even implying so much as loudly screaming "NO" to these questions, then it shouldn't be a shocker that some people will turn on the movement altogether.

On a side note these type of activists effectively completely killed any potential for serious police reform in Minneapolis (not referring to trans ones in particular, probably a majority are cis, but as noted these are definitely heavily intertwined movements.) The only real proposal they pushed forward was a mess full of vague and unclear language that would've amounted to effectively renaming the police department and adding an extra level of bureaucracy on it while also keeping the language of it somewhat abolitionist-friendly and making it easier to demonize than it would've been. Unsurprisingly this failed. A much more viable plan of setting up a new elected city board to handle police accountability was basically scuttled by activists who didn't like it because it would "legitimize" police in general similar to how alcohol regulatory boards or cannabis ones in legal states also legitimize those products and the markets for them, they saw it as a step away from actual abolition, something that would obviously never happen, but that led the collapse of the campaign to even get it on the ballot.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Who is saying ACAB includes EMTs? And how is that impacting the trans rights movement outside of Minneapolis, if even that?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who is saying ACAB includes EMTs?

To be fair basically just Twitter randos, but also ones who make a fuss about being trans activists as well. Perhaps "activists" is a better way to put it granted, but it's hard to deny that even mainstream trans activists' rhetoric on police is off-putting to the general public even if they haven't adopted "ACAB includes EMTs"...yet.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Re: Trans Activists, Covid Hawks over lap.

The trans community is very disproportionately disabled. The numbers are fuzzy but it’s over 25%. These obviously vary widely but it makes sense for trans activists to be the most hesitant and resistant to covid restrictions being relaxed as they are some of the most at risk.

[Хahar 🤔]

Who is saying ACAB includes EMTs?

To be fair basically just Twitter randos

Delete your account.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who is saying ACAB includes EMTs?

To be fair basically just Twitter randos

Delete your account.

If you mean my Twitter account I actually do pretty much just use it for the MacFarlane Chat and to follow one guy who posts good Minnesota maps nowadays, but I still have too many memories of content before I did so.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm not sure why people in this thread who agree with me on the substance of this issue area seem to be treating it as imperative to insist that 1. current messaging and strategy is fine and 2. polls showing that it might not be working can and should be assumed to be factually wrong.

Trans 'messaging' has effectively been silenced. There's no recourse at the moment to revisit it because it's not platformed. 'Trans person drinks beer' was enough to cost a company hundreds of millions of dollars in backlash.

Daily existence, however mundane, is perceived as some sort of pernicious activism.

What's worse is that with the gays, the worst 'populist' position was 'I don't want to see it'. With trans people, it's very close to being 'you shouldn't be one.'

I do think it is a short term regression. But of course it worries me.

I think when the next electoral cycles in the USA and the UK tick over and it's had no impact on the outcome of either, and platforms are vacated, trans folk can take some control back of the messaging. I think given how diverse younger generations are, the continued moral panic is unsustainable.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying here, but that's kind of an additional reason why the complacency I'm seeing concerns me.