2026 MI-SEN: Gary Peters vs. John James II (Biden midterm). Who wins?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who wins a match-up between Gary Peters and John James in Michigan?

[BigZuck08]

I'd say Peters, but by around 1-3 points. Michigan is trending left and by this time it would be a moderately blue state, similar to Minnesota.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

James has to win re-election first before he can be a senate candidate. If his opponent does just .5% better then 2022 he’s gone.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably James.

[Zedonathin2020]

James might actually  have a chance if Biden is unpopular enough, but given Michigan's leftward trend I would expect Peters at this moment

[kwabbit]

I'd say Peters, but by around 1-3 points. Michigan is trending left and by this time it would be a moderately blue state, similar to Minnesota.

Michigan is not trending left. It did in 2020, but Biden won it by 7 less than Obama. It has a below average education rate and not experiencing very much demographic change. There is no reason to expect Michigan to become as Democratic as Minnesota unless you think that 2022 is all that matters.

[DS0816]

…Michigan is trending [for the Democratic Party] …

It is not.

When Joe Biden won a Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2020, and flipped and carried Michigan, his U.S. Popular Vote margin was +4.45 while the state delivered +2.78.

For the first time since 1944, a Democrat won the presidency with Michigan in the party’s column and had a lower percentage-points margin in the state vs. national outcome.

Over the period of 1992 to 2012, when Michigan was a 1992 Democratic pickup for Democratic presidential pickup winner Bill Clinton, and then the state held for the Democrats even with Republican-affiliated George W. Bush, it averaged between +5 to +6 above the party’s national margins.

Michigan is not a state trending for the Democratic Party. Its trend is, as it is already established, being a bellwether state.

I come across some who think Michigan is performing like it did from 1992 to 2012. Some cite the 2022 United States midterm elections—and re-elected Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer’s margin—and they are not separating midterms from presidential cycles. Some of it is bias. We are in a different period. Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the path to winning elections to the presidency runs through Michigan.

[Alben Barkley]

…Michigan is trending [for the Democratic Party] …

It is not.

When Joe Biden won a Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2020, and flipped and carried Michigan, his U.S. Popular Vote margin was +4.45 while the state delivered +2.78.

For the first time since 1944, a Democrat won the presidency with Michigan in the party’s column and had a lower percentage-points margin in the state vs. national outcome.

Over the period of 1992 to 2012, when Michigan was a 1992 Democratic pickup for Democratic presidential pickup winner Bill Clinton, and then the state held for the Democrats even with Republican-affiliated George W. Bush, it averaged between +5 to +6 above the party’s national margins.

Michigan is not a state trending for the Democratic Party. Its trend is, as it is already established, being a bellwether state.

I come across some who think Michigan is performing like it did from 1992 to 2012. Some cite the 2022 United States midterm elections—and re-elected Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer’s margin—and they are not separating midterms from presidential cycles. Some of it is bias. We are in a different period. Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the path to winning elections to the presidency runs through Michigan.

Imagine I wrote this same kind of bulls—t about Florida, which voted almost exactly as far right as Michigan did left in 2020 and has actually if anything more of a recent history as a genuine swing state, and claimed that anyone questioning me based on the midterm results in 2022 was an idiot who can’t separate midterms from presidential cycles.

I’d be laughed off this forum, and rightfully so.

[Fancyarcher]

…Michigan is trending [for the Democratic Party] …

It is not.

When Joe Biden won a Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2020, and flipped and carried Michigan, his U.S. Popular Vote margin was +4.45 while the state delivered +2.78.

For the first time since 1944, a Democrat won the presidency with Michigan in the party’s column and had a lower percentage-points margin in the state vs. national outcome.

Over the period of 1992 to 2012, when Michigan was a 1992 Democratic pickup for Democratic presidential pickup winner Bill Clinton, and then the state held for the Democrats even with Republican-affiliated George W. Bush, it averaged between +5 to +6 above the party’s national margins.

Michigan is not a state trending for the Democratic Party. Its trend is, as it is already established, being a bellwether state.

I come across some who think Michigan is performing like it did from 1992 to 2012. Some cite the 2022 United States midterm elections—and re-elected Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer’s margin—and they are not separating midterms from presidential cycles. Some of it is bias. We are in a different period. Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the path to winning elections to the presidency runs through Michigan.

Imagine I wrote this same kind of bulls—t about Florida, which voted almost exactly as far right as Michigan did left in 2020 and has actually if anything more of a recent history as a genuine swing state, and claimed that anyone questioning me based on the midterm results in 2022 was an idiot who can’t separate midterms from presidential cycles.

I’d be laughed off this forum, and rightfully so.

Actually Michigan voted to the right in 2020. The trends there are not particularly great for Democrats.

[oldtimer]

James would have had a base formed in his district.
On the other hand, Democrats are favoured in lower turnout elections.

Those 2 might cancel out, so Peters by a very small margin if Biden wins Michigan.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

James would have had a base formed in his district.
On the other hand, Democrats are favoured in lower turnout elections.

Those 2 might cancel out, so Peters by a very small margin if Biden wins Michigan.

As I said above, James narrowly won in 2022. He could loose in 2024, but he is an incumbent now so that muddies the water. Either way he’s one of the top 5 most vulnerable republicans. Even if he wins he’ll be disadvantaged in funding and won’t have a solid base in his district.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls in MI and NV always underestimate Ds just like they have Slotkin down after they poll her ahead they are trying to make Trump be more competitive than he really is

Just remember this I said it's a 51/47 Eday with 303 map and Trump is up 51/47 not by 10 in OH but obviously Casey can win by 9 pts like he always do

[oldtimer]

James would have had a base formed in his district.
On the other hand, Democrats are favoured in lower turnout elections.

Those 2 might cancel out, so Peters by a very small margin if Biden wins Michigan.

As I said above, James narrowly won in 2022. He could loose in 2024, but he is an incumbent now so that muddies the water. Either way he’s one of the top 5 most vulnerable republicans. Even if he wins he’ll be disadvantaged in funding and won’t have a solid base in his district.

He's fine, he managed to win when Republicans practically didn't had a statewide candidate in a lower turnout election that favoured Democrats.

2024 would feature higher turnout in more favourable conditions for Republicans.

And in 2026, I expect Michigan Republicans to switch to a convention for governor nominees, to avoid the 2022 shenanigans.

[kwabbit]

James would have had a base formed in his district.
On the other hand, Democrats are favoured in lower turnout elections.

Those 2 might cancel out, so Peters by a very small margin if Biden wins Michigan.

As I said above, James narrowly won in 2022. He could loose in 2024, but he is an incumbent now so that muddies the water. Either way he’s one of the top 5 most vulnerable republicans. Even if he wins he’ll be disadvantaged in funding and won’t have a solid base in his district.

One important thing is that Michigan had the most favorable turnout patterns in the country for Democrats. Democrats didn't persuade voters any better in Michigan than Wisconsin or Texas or Virginia, they simply had the same persuasion gains combined with favorable turnout from the abortion referendum and the ballot access debacle. While basically all of the country would swing left if turnout normalizes, this is not the case for Michigan and James' district. Whitmer won by 10 points and he won, Biden isn't going to achieve the same result.

[DS0816]

Polls in MI … always underestimate D…

Like in 2016?

(And 2020?)

[DS0816]

Who wins a match-up between Gary Peters and John James in Michigan?

Part of it depends on the winning party, for U.S. President, in 2024.

If it will be a 2024 Republican pickup … Democrats will likely win overall net gains in 2026 midterm elections.

If it will be a 2024 Democratic hold … they will likely hold the U.S. Senate. (Historically, when one of both houses of Congress switch party control, in a leap/presidential year, it/they goes to the party which also prevails for U.S. President.) If this ends up happening, the Republicans would be in better position to flip the U.S. Senate in 2026. And, yes, this would include bellwether Michigan.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

James, easily. He only lost by 1.5% in 2020, outperforming Trump. Even in 2018, a blue wave, he managed to outrun the nationwide generic ballot popular vote 3% . He is also now a house representative, which will help him.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

James, easily. He only lost by 1.5% in 2020, outperforming Trump. Even in 2018, a blue wave, he managed to outrun the nationwide generic ballot popular vote 3% . He is also now a house representative, which will help him.

That isn’t a useful data point. American politics, especially Michigan politics, is radically different from what it was November of 2020. Republicans have spent the last two years telling Michigan voters their vote is illegitimate. So much so that band of terrorists tried to kidnap their governor. It’s a different landscape then what it was in 2020.

Example; there is an open senate seat up in Michigan and while democrats have an a lost candidate republicans are struggling to find *anyone*. A repeat of their gubernatorial primary two years ago.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

James, easily. He only lost by 1.5% in 2020, outperforming Trump. Even in 2018, a blue wave, he managed to outrun the nationwide generic ballot popular vote 3% . He is also now a house representative, which will help him.

That isn’t a useful data point. American politics, especially Michigan politics, is radically different from what it was November of 2020. Republicans have spent the last two years telling Michigan voters their vote is illegitimate. So much so that band of terrorists tried to kidnap their governor. It’s a different landscape then what it was in 2020.

Example; there is an open senate seat up in Michigan and while democrats have an a lost candidate republicans are struggling to find *anyone*. A repeat of their gubernatorial primary two years ago.

James is a strong candidate. He outran Dixon by more than 12 points.

Maybe the Republican party puts up someone much weaker. But James will win if it's a Biden midterm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

James, easily. He only lost by 1.5% in 2020, outperforming Trump. Even in 2018, a blue wave, he managed to outrun the nationwide generic ballot popular vote 3% . He is also now a house representative, which will help him.

That isn’t a useful data point. American politics, especially Michigan politics, is radically different from what it was November of 2020. Republicans have spent the last two years telling Michigan voters their vote is illegitimate. So much so that band of terrorists tried to kidnap their governor. It’s a different landscape then what it was in 2020.

Example; there is an open senate seat up in Michigan and while democrats have an a lost candidate republicans are struggling to find *anyone*. A repeat of their gubernatorial primary two years ago.

James is a strong candidate. He outran Dixon by more than 12 points.

Maybe the Republican party puts up someone much weaker. But James will win if it's a Biden midterm.

James couldn't beat Debbie Stabenow in 2018 it's still a 3o3 map regardless that's why Trump will LOSE

Guess whose running for Gov in 26 Gilchrist our Blk candidate for Gov that's why he passed on Senate race to run for Gov

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

The Michigan Democratic Party is the most competent of the Dem swing state parties now. Sure, Michigan's changing, but its trends aren't particularly different from other states'. I don't know the last time the Democrats had a trifecta there. Abortion probably put this state out of reach for Republicans for some time, but it can still fall in a really bad year for Democrats. Peters starts off as the early favorite in any scenario.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The Michigan Democratic Party is the most competent of the Dem swing state parties now. Sure, Michigan's changing, but its trends aren't particularly different from other states'. I don't know the last time the Democrats had a trifecta there. Abortion probably put this state out of reach for Republicans for some time, but it can still fall in a really bad year for Democrats. Peters starts off as the early favorite in any scenario.

The last time democrats had a trifecta in Michigan was in 1983, and only that year. The last time they had it for more then one year was 1937-1938. 1983 was also the year that Democrats held every state office, both senators, and the congressional delegation at the same time.

[OSR stands with Israel]

…Michigan is trending [for the Democratic Party] …

It is not.

When Joe Biden won a Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2020, and flipped and carried Michigan, his U.S. Popular Vote margin was +4.45 while the state delivered +2.78.

For the first time since 1944, a Democrat won the presidency with Michigan in the party’s column and had a lower percentage-points margin in the state vs. national outcome.

Over the period of 1992 to 2012, when Michigan was a 1992 Democratic pickup for Democratic presidential pickup winner Bill Clinton, and then the state held for the Democrats even with Republican-affiliated George W. Bush, it averaged between +5 to +6 above the party’s national margins.

Michigan is not a state trending for the Democratic Party. Its trend is, as it is already established, being a bellwether state.

I come across some who think Michigan is performing like it did from 1992 to 2012. Some cite the 2022 United States midterm elections—and re-elected Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer’s margin—and they are not separating midterms from presidential cycles. Some of it is bias. We are in a different period. Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the path to winning elections to the presidency runs through Michigan.

Imagine I wrote this same kind of bulls—t about Florida, which voted almost exactly as far right as Michigan did left in 2020 and has actually if anything more of a recent history as a genuine swing state, and claimed that anyone questioning me based on the midterm results in 2022 was an idiot who can’t separate midterms from presidential cycles.

I’d be laughed off this forum, and rightfully so.

While 2022 was a great year for MI Dems it was no where near as great for them as 2022 was for the FL GOP. Lets compare shall we:


Governor:

Michigan: Whitmer wins by 10.6 points against a Republican candidate who only got the nomination because the leading Republican in that race got disqualified due to the sig issue.

Florida: DeSantis wins by 19.4 points(which was a greater margin than Newsom won) against a Democratic candidate who yes was not a good candidate but one who was a former Governor and one who almost won in 2014.

Senate:

Ok no seat up in Michigan but the Florida Seante Race was the closest statewide race in Florida in 2022 and the GOP won that by a larger margin than the Democrats won any statewide race in Michigan

House:

Michigan: Democrats won the overall vote by 2.2 points

Florida: Republicans won the overall vote by 18.6 points

State Legislature:

Michigan: Democrats had a banner year by winning both houses and won the overall State House vote by 1.3 points, and State Senate vote by 1.7 points

Florida: Republicans also had a banner year by winning a Super Majority in both houses and won the overall State house vote by 20 points and State Senate vote by 21.5 points.


Michigan Republicans had a bad year for sure but Florida Democrats had a catastrophically bad year

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

…Michigan is trending [for the Democratic Party] …

It is not.

When Joe Biden won a Democratic pickup of the presidency in 2020, and flipped and carried Michigan, his U.S. Popular Vote margin was +4.45 while the state delivered +2.78.

For the first time since 1944, a Democrat won the presidency with Michigan in the party’s column and had a lower percentage-points margin in the state vs. national outcome.

Over the period of 1992 to 2012, when Michigan was a 1992 Democratic pickup for Democratic presidential pickup winner Bill Clinton, and then the state held for the Democrats even with Republican-affiliated George W. Bush, it averaged between +5 to +6 above the party’s national margins.

Michigan is not a state trending for the Democratic Party. Its trend is, as it is already established, being a bellwether state.

I come across some who think Michigan is performing like it did from 1992 to 2012. Some cite the 2022 United States midterm elections—and re-elected Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer’s margin—and they are not separating midterms from presidential cycles. Some of it is bias. We are in a different period. Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the path to winning elections to the presidency runs through Michigan.

Imagine I wrote this same kind of bulls—t about Florida, which voted almost exactly as far right as Michigan did left in 2020 and has actually if anything more of a recent history as a genuine swing state, and claimed that anyone questioning me based on the midterm results in 2022 was an idiot who can’t separate midterms from presidential cycles.

I’d be laughed off this forum, and rightfully so.

While 2022 was a great year for MI Dems it was no where near as great for them as 2022 was for the FL GOP. Lets compare shall we:


Governor:

Michigan: Whitmer wins by 10.6 points against a Republican candidate who only got the nomination because the leading Republican in that race got disqualified due to the sig issue.

Florida: DeSantis wins by 19.4 points(which was a greater margin than Newsom won) against a Democratic candidate who yes was not a good candidate but one who was a former Governor and one who almost won in 2014.

Senate:

Ok no seat up in Michigan but the Florida Seante Race was the closest statewide race in Florida in 2022 and the GOP won that by a larger margin than the Democrats won any statewide race in Michigan

House:

Michigan: Democrats won the overall vote by 2.2 points

Florida: Republicans won the overall vote by 18.6 points

State Legislature:

Michigan: Democrats had a banner year by winning both houses and won the overall State House vote by 1.3 points, and State Senate vote by 1.7 points

Florida: Republicans also had a banner year by winning a Super Majority in both houses and won the overall State house vote by 20 points and State Senate vote by 21.5 points.


Michigan Republicans had a bad year for sure but Florida Democrats had a catastrophically bad year

FL has a Cuban Embargo and 22 was the yr that Rubio was on the ballot FL is safe R when Rubio was on the ballot, Cruz is Cuban but Dallas is more D than Miami Scott is only 4 pts ahead against Ehr and so is Cruz in Allred

We will win MI