West African Crisis

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Those cheering on the coup because of reflexive anti-Americanism would do well to note that the US still hasn't condemned the coup, whereas the Russian government has, at least, criticised it as anti-constitutional.

The US and France are not a united front, and neither are Wagner/social media grifters and the Russian government.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The difference between the Russian government and the non-governmental extremists loyal to it is like the difference between a Sicilian mafia boss posing as a quiet honest businessman, and his soldatos.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Those cheering on the coup because of reflexive anti-Americanism would do well to note that the US still hasn't condemned the coup, whereas the Russian government has, at least, criticised it as anti-constitutional.

The US and France are not a united front, and neither are Wagner/social media grifters and the Russian government.

This past year and half has really changed my worldview on key issues and figures. I really didn’t realize how intellectually shallow in relation to foreign policy issues a disturbingly large number of leftists are

[Antonio the Sixth]

In retrospect, we should have nipped this in the bud in Mali and Burkina Faso, long before getting to that point. I'd be the first to cheer West African countries throwing off French influence, but replacing it with Russian influence is just not going to be to anyone's benefit (least of all the local population).

[Red Velvet]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed. Not only are African state institutions weak compared to other parts of the world (military or otherwise), but there's a long track record of Africans getting failed by all sorts of governments.

I think sometimes people focus too much on trying to put something in a box of “good” or “bad” that they miss the point on how history isn’t as linear and simplistic like they act. Not everything is a Marvel movie.

You can make the point for example, that the coup prejudices situation of democracy and regional stability while recognizing situation already wasn’t good in the first place and many people will naturally demand for any change that presents itself as an alternative.

Whether the new government will be better or worse than the previous one, is something no one knows in advance.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed. Not only are African state institutions weak compared to other parts of the world (military or otherwise), but there's a long track record of Africans getting failed by all sorts of governments.

I think sometimes people focus too much on trying to put something in a box of “good” or “bad” that they miss the point on how history isn’t as linear and simplistic like they act. Not everything is a Marvel movie.

You can make the point for example, that the coup prejudices situation of democracy and regional stability while recognizing situation already wasn’t good in the first place and many people will naturally demand for any change that presents itself as an alternative.

Whether the new government will be better or worse than the previous one, is something no one knows in advance.

Well said.

[Agafin]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed. Not only are African state institutions weak compared to other parts of the world (military or otherwise), but there's a long track record of Africans getting failed by all sorts of governments.

I think sometimes people focus too much on trying to put something in a box of “good” or “bad” that they miss the point on how history isn’t as linear and simplistic like they act. Not everything is a Marvel movie.

You can make the point for example, that the coup prejudices situation of democracy and regional stability while recognizing situation already wasn’t good in the first place and many people will naturally demand for any change that presents itself as an alternative.

Whether the new government will be better or worse than the previous one, is something no one knows in advance.

There are probably some coups which have ultimately been beneficial to the country in question (though Rawlings in Ghana is literally the only one that I can think of as far as West Africa is concerned). But it is pretty clear than every single one of the coups that have occured in the Sahel region since over the past couple of years have been done for selfish reasons and haven't materially improved the lives of the citizens there (in fact, they have worsened it).

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

In retrospect, we should have nipped this in the bud in Mali and Burkina Faso, long before getting to that point. I'd be the first to cheer West African countries throwing off French influence, but replacing it with Russian influence is just not going to be to anyone's benefit (least of all the local population).

Right. Unlike the French, modern Russians, for lack of their own African experience, just cosplay Forsyth's "The Dogs of War", where mercenaries drink beer, shoot at everyone, seize deposits and overthrow presidents.

[oldtimer]

In retrospect, we should have nipped this in the bud in Mali and Burkina Faso, long before getting to that point. I'd be the first to cheer West African countries throwing off French influence, but replacing it with Russian influence is just not going to be to anyone's benefit (least of all the local population).

Right. Unlike the French, modern Russians, for lack of their own African experience, just cosplay Forsyth's "The Dogs of War", where mercenaries drink beer, shoot at everyone, seize deposits and overthrow presidents.

That's how the British Empire was practically built really.

Just a bunch of drunk lads on a holiday with guns, seizing prospective retirement real estate and looting the locals, while in search for exotic food.

Jockingly you could give the Faliraki drunkards machine guns, and they would proclaim Rhodes an english colony in their drunken stupor to get tax free drinks.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed. Not only are African state institutions weak compared to other parts of the world (military or otherwise), but there's a long track record of Africans getting failed by all sorts of governments.

I think sometimes people focus too much on trying to put something in a box of “good” or “bad” that they miss the point on how history isn’t as linear and simplistic like they act. Not everything is a Marvel movie.

You can make the point for example, that the coup prejudices situation of democracy and regional stability while recognizing situation already wasn’t good in the first place and many people will naturally demand for any change that presents itself as an alternative.

Whether the new government will be better or worse than the previous one, is something no one knows in advance.

There are probably some coups which have ultimately been beneficial to the country in question (though Rawlings in Ghana is literally the only one that I can think of as far as West Africa is concerned). But it is pretty clear than every single one of the coups that have occured in the Sahel region since over the past couple of years have been done for selfish reasons and haven't materially improved the lives of the citizens there (in fact, they have worsened it).

There is/was also a fair amount of protest against this one within Niger, so it seems demonstrably wrong to surmise that the country was just chomping at the bit for it.

[Silent Hunter]

That's how the British Empire was practically built really.
Just a bunch of drunk lads on a holiday with guns, seizing prospective retirement real estate and looting the locals, while in search for exotic food.

Maybe in the early days, but by the time we'd gotten to Africa, things were a good deal more professional.

[Agafin]

So it seems like the Nigerian senate has ruled out military intervention. Pretty humiliating for Tinubu. A diplomatic solution obviously won't work (we literally have three recent examples in the same region to know that it won't) which means that ECOWAS will now have four suspended member-states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger). Four members is probably enough to create a "coup d'état" union between themselves lol. Poor ECOWAS, that organization is pretty much useless at this point.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So it seems like the Nigerian senate has ruled out military intervention. Pretty humiliating for Tinubu. A diplomatic solution obviously won't work (we literally have three recent examples in the same region to know that it won't) which means that ECOWAS will now have four suspended member-states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger). Four members is probably enough to create a "coup d'état" union between themselves lol. Poor ECOWAS, that organization is pretty much useless at this point.

This is over unless France decides to intervene.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So it seems like the Nigerian senate has ruled out military intervention. Pretty humiliating for Tinubu. A diplomatic solution obviously won't work (we literally have three recent examples in the same region to know that it won't) which means that ECOWAS will now have four suspended member-states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger). Four members is probably enough to create a "coup d'état" union between themselves lol. Poor ECOWAS, that organization is pretty much useless at this point.

This is over unless France decides to intervene.

Hopefully it won't come to that. My housemate, an IR person, suggested the generals may be willing to talk concessions or power-sharing at some point given that they haven't killed or exiled Bazoum.

[Alcibiades]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed. Not only are African state institutions weak compared to other parts of the world (military or otherwise), but there's a long track record of Africans getting failed by all sorts of governments.

I think sometimes people focus too much on trying to put something in a box of “good” or “bad” that they miss the point on how history isn’t as linear and simplistic like they act. Not everything is a Marvel movie.

You can make the point for example, that the coup prejudices situation of democracy and regional stability while recognizing situation already wasn’t good in the first place and many people will naturally demand for any change that presents itself as an alternative.

Whether the new government will be better or worse than the previous one, is something no one knows in advance.

love to be a “leftist” and support coups against democratically-elected socialist leaders

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it seems like the Nigerian senate has ruled out military intervention. Pretty humiliating for Tinubu. A diplomatic solution obviously won't work (we literally have three recent examples in the same region to know that it won't) which means that ECOWAS will now have four suspended member-states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger). Four members is probably enough to create a "coup d'état" union between themselves lol. Poor ECOWAS, that organization is pretty much useless at this point.

This is over unless France decides to intervene.

Under Hollande or even Sarkozy I could have seen that happening, but Macron's whole foreign policy seems to consist in impotently whining every time France suffers a diplomatic setback, so I doubt this will be different. There's certainly much to criticize about France's history of intervention in the region, but we did keep the region from descending into civil war in 2013 (something I'm sure Syria and Iraq would have appreciated from the US at that time). Now it seems we're happy to wash our hands of it. There's definitely some pros and cons involved, but I don't trust Macron to weigh them adequately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[All Along The Watchtower]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed. Not only are African state institutions weak compared to other parts of the world (military or otherwise), but there's a long track record of Africans getting failed by all sorts of governments.

I think sometimes people focus too much on trying to put something in a box of “good” or “bad” that they miss the point on how history isn’t as linear and simplistic like they act. Not everything is a Marvel movie.

You can make the point for example, that the coup prejudices situation of democracy and regional stability while recognizing situation already wasn’t good in the first place and many people will naturally demand for any change that presents itself as an alternative.

Whether the new government will be better or worse than the previous one, is something no one knows in advance.

The content of this post is offensively stupid.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed. Not only are African state institutions weak compared to other parts of the world (military or otherwise), but there's a long track record of Africans getting failed by all sorts of governments.

I think sometimes people focus too much on trying to put something in a box of “good” or “bad” that they miss the point on how history isn’t as linear and simplistic like they act. Not everything is a Marvel movie.

You can make the point for example, that the coup prejudices situation of democracy and regional stability while recognizing situation already wasn’t good in the first place and many people will naturally demand for any change that presents itself as an alternative.

Whether the new government will be better or worse than the previous one, is something no one knows in advance.

The content of this post is offensively stupid.

There's nothing like the freezing cold takes of the "foreign policy left" to drive home just how bad at distinguishing between moral principles and deductive applications of those principles many people are. Powers like the US and France have generally been malign actors in West Africa because of things that they have done that are bad; "being a malign actor in West Africa" is not "that which powers like the US and France do," since actors in West Africa that are not those powers might, and do, also do bad things. Somehow the difference escapes countless people.

[Devout Centrist]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed.

Yes we can and should call it bad specifically *for* the process it followed!

Not only are African state institutions weak compared to other parts of the world (military or otherwise), but there's a long track record of Africans getting failed by all sorts of governments.

This does not, under any circumstances, justify a military coup d’etat of a democratically elected leader.

[Red Velvet]

Not sure if the meme makes sense though.

I wish more average people in the west agreed with those non-interventionist views of mine, like you suggest with the frequency distribution! If anything it feels the exact opposite with everyone buying interventionism as a solution sold by propaganda.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Not sure if the meme makes sense though.

I wish more average people in the west agreed with those non-interventionist views of mine, like you suggest with the frequency distribution! If anything it feels the exact opposite with everyone buying interventionism as a solution sold by propaganda.

“Military coups overthrowing democratic governments is bad”
Red Velvet: not sure if that makes sense

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not sure if the meme makes sense though.

I wish more average people in the west agreed with those non-interventionist views of mine, like you suggest with the frequency distribution! If anything it feels the exact opposite with everyone buying interventionism as a solution sold by propaganda.

Anti-interventionism doesn’t require you to pretend awful situations aren’t awful, just accept there are limitations re: what should be done about them.

Niger’s government has certainly gotten worse because of its new dictatorship (the protest shootings have already begun). This is true regardless of whether or not an ECOWAS intervention would be a good idea.

[Хahar 🤔]

Africa's problems are deep-rooted and multi-faceted, I don't think we can necessarily call this coup clearly good or bad simply from the process it followed.

[Coldstream]

Evidently Ed Miliband is who the Nigerian senate take inspiration from.