West African Crisis

[Dr. MB]

It's a little funny that half the outrage in this thread is over France losing its neocolonial grip on west Africa in favor of Russian neocolonialism. Whether the uranium is being exploited by the west or by Russia doesn't do much to help the people of Niger.

the difference is that France got it via a democratic government and not a coup-installed military junta.

Yeah which is the real issue there. The coup is bad because it overthrew a democratically elected government and not because France can no longer mine uranium.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The United States needs to cease its foreign officer training programs. These forces have been a hotbed of anti-democratic forces that have either overthrown democratically elected leaders and cause massive genocidal oppression for right wing leaders to keep power.

No wonder when the wind blows another direction these officers jump ship to another foreign master.

The military industrial complex needs to train tomorrow's enemies to justify its existence.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Without wishing to downplay the record of things like the School of the Americas, I suspect that foreign officer training courses attract a demographic that is more likely to try to organise a coup than an average officer anyway.

[All Along The Watchtower]

It's a little funny that half the outrage in this thread is over France losing its neocolonial grip on west Africa in favor of Russian neocolonialism. Whether the uranium is being exploited by the west or by Russia doesn't do much to help the people of Niger.

And who says they’ll stop exporting uranium to France?  

[All Along The Watchtower]

Without wishing to downplay the record of things like the School of the Americas, I suspect that foreign officer training courses attract a demographic that is more likely to try to organise a coup than an average officer anyway.

A coup or a brazen assassination, yes.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The discourse in here is somehow worse despite many of the usual suspects being absent, so I've made the mistake of trying to address some of the worst bits.

Niger is neither a fully-fledged democracy nor a permanent colony to be directly transferred from French to Russian control by virtue of a military coup which seemed to involve neither French nor Russian personnel. The greatest loss as a result of this coup will be to Niger and its people, but the good news is that they are far more capable of changing their destiny than tenuously connected foreign powers which are likely to underestimate a small, landlocked country half a world away.

Until the coup, Niger was - at best - an emerging democracy with serious repression problems, in part on account of the Islamist insurgency but also because of various historical issues, widespread poverty and the rising regional instability/cost of living issues (partly a result of climate change, which poses a greater risk in the long term). Despite this, it was in a better position than most other countries in the Sahel, and Niger's first peaceful transfer of power (from one elected leader to another) two years earlier meant there was much room for optimism.

The French had outsized influence there (originally secured through colonialism, and still featuring economic exploitation by a number of large French companies), but they were not the only partner and Nigerien trade went well beyond a single natural resource you might find on a Catan hex tile. China made a number of oil investments there in the last 10-15 years, IIRC, and uranium mining has been experiencing significant decline for a similar period (whether this will change is TBD).

The speed of this coup would suggest even French influence is rather limited - and the idea that the FSB would do this principally for the uranium (not exactly in short supply in Russia) is a little bit out there (again, the Catan mindset - I wouldn't put it past Russian officials to think this way, but it's too far to speculate in this context).

I would like to point out that, at this time, the new regime has not yet stated they wish to expel the French, and the French government has worked (and continues to work) with plenty of African dictatorships. They have condemned this particular coup, but the wording was quite weak and Macron isn't known for his consistency.

Coups have been horribly common in the Sahel since decolonisation and may well become more so because of difficult and worsening living conditions, respectively. The War on Terror did not help matters, but it wasn't as if foreign countries weren't grooming soldiers prior to that - for instance, Libya's Haftar is a former CIA asset from the Cold War.

If successful, this would be Niger's fifth coup - on the face of it, not an exception to their historical norm. Fortunately, it's too early to declare the coup a success, and the deposed government might retain more grassroots support than previously couped regimes, on account of it not being another dictatorship. There has only been one successful coup against a democratic government in Niger, and the coupists' rule ended three years later with their assassination in another coup, followed by elections.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The discourse in here is somehow worse despite many of the usual suspects being absent, so I've made the mistake of trying to address some of the worst bits.

Niger is neither a fully-fledged democracy nor a permanent colony to be directly transferred from French to Russian control by virtue of a military coup which seemed to involve neither French nor Russian personnel. The greatest loss as a result of this coup will be to Niger and its people, but the good news is that they are far more capable of changing their destiny than tenuously connected foreign powers which are likely to underestimate a small, landlocked country half a world away.

Until the coup, Niger was - at best - an emerging democracy with serious repression problems, in part on account of the Islamist insurgency but also because of various historical issues, widespread poverty and the rising regional instability/cost of living issues (partly a result of climate change, which poses a greater risk in the long term). Despite this, it was in a better position than most other countries in the Sahel, and Niger's first peaceful transfer of power (from one elected leader to another) two years earlier meant there was much room for optimism.

The French had outsized influence there (originally secured through colonialism, and still featuring economic exploitation by a number of large French companies), but they were not the only partner and Nigerien trade went well beyond a single natural resource you might find on a Catan hex tile. China made a number of oil investments there in the last 10-15 years, IIRC, and uranium mining has been experiencing significant decline for a similar period (whether this will change is TBD).

The speed of this coup would suggest even French influence is rather limited - and the idea that the FSB would do this principally for the uranium (not exactly in short supply in Russia) is a little bit out there (again, the Catan mindset - I wouldn't put it past Russian officials to think this way, but it's too far to speculate in this context).

I would like to point out that, at this time, the new regime has not yet stated they wish to expel the French, and the French government has worked (and continues to work) with plenty of African dictatorships. They have condemned this particular coup, but the wording was quite weak and Macron isn't known for his consistency.

Coups have been horribly common in the Sahel since decolonisation and may well become more so because of difficult and worsening living conditions, respectively. The War on Terror did not help matters, but it wasn't as if foreign countries weren't grooming soldiers prior to that - for instance, Libya's Haftar is a former CIA asset from the Cold War.

If successful, this would be Niger's fifth coup - on the face of it, not an exception to their historical norm. Fortunately, it's too early to declare the coup a success, and the deposed government might retain more grassroots support than previously couped regimes, on account of it not being another dictatorship. There has only been one successful coup against a democratic government in Niger, and the coupists' rule ended three years later with their assassination in another coup, followed by elections.

Thank you. Well said.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

It's a little funny that half the outrage in this thread is over France losing its neocolonial grip on west Africa in favor of Russian neocolonialism. Whether the uranium is being exploited by the west or by Russia doesn't do much to help the people of Niger.

The Chinese grip is worse for Niger than the French, because French colonialism has become obsolete at the beginning of the last century, and Chinese colonialism is only gaining momentum, and with modern technology, this classic colonialism will be more terrible than the one we know from the Victorian era.

It makes no sense to talk separately about Russia here, since it is not sovereign.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The discourse in here is somehow worse despite many of the usual suspects being absent, so I've made the mistake of trying to address some of the worst bits.

Niger is neither a fully-fledged democracy nor a permanent colony to be directly transferred from French to Russian control by virtue of a military coup which seemed to involve neither French nor Russian personnel. The greatest loss as a result of this coup will be to Niger and its people, but the good news is that they are far more capable of changing their destiny than tenuously connected foreign powers which are likely to underestimate a small, landlocked country half a world away.

Until the coup, Niger was - at best - an emerging democracy with serious repression problems, in part on account of the Islamist insurgency but also because of various historical issues, widespread poverty and the rising regional instability/cost of living issues (partly a result of climate change, which poses a greater risk in the long term). Despite this, it was in a better position than most other countries in the Sahel, and Niger's first peaceful transfer of power (from one elected leader to another) two years earlier meant there was much room for optimism.

The French had outsized influence there (originally secured through colonialism, and still featuring economic exploitation by a number of large French companies), but they were not the only partner and Nigerien trade went well beyond a single natural resource you might find on a Catan hex tile. China made a number of oil investments there in the last 10-15 years, IIRC, and uranium mining has been experiencing significant decline for a similar period (whether this will change is TBD).

The speed of this coup would suggest even French influence is rather limited - and the idea that the FSB would do this principally for the uranium (not exactly in short supply in Russia) is a little bit out there (again, the Catan mindset - I wouldn't put it past Russian officials to think this way, but it's too far to speculate in this context).

I would like to point out that, at this time, the new regime has not yet stated they wish to expel the French, and the French government has worked (and continues to work) with plenty of African dictatorships. They have condemned this particular coup, but the wording was quite weak and Macron isn't known for his consistency.

Coups have been horribly common in the Sahel since decolonisation and may well become more so because of difficult and worsening living conditions, respectively. The War on Terror did not help matters, but it wasn't as if foreign countries weren't grooming soldiers prior to that - for instance, Libya's Haftar is a former CIA asset from the Cold War.

If successful, this would be Niger's fifth coup - on the face of it, not an exception to their historical norm. Fortunately, it's too early to declare the coup a success, and the deposed government might retain more grassroots support than previously couped regimes, on account of it not being another dictatorship. There has only been one successful coup against a democratic government in Niger, and the coupists' rule ended three years later with their assassination in another coup, followed by elections.

All in all a great post and I agree with your conclusions and it is very important that you noted the significant role of the PRC in Africa, which the rest of the participants in the discussion stubbornly ignore, but there are some smaaaaaall contradictions with that the Russians allegedly has nothing to do for this coup:

[lfromnj]

If successful, this would be Niger's fifth coup - on the face of it, not an exception to their historical norm. Fortunately, it's too early to declare the coup a success, and the deposed government might retain more grassroots support than previously couped regimes, on account of it not being another dictatorship. There has only been one successful coup against a democratic government in Niger, and the coupists' rule ended three years later with their assassination in another coup, followed by elections.

One of Niger's coups in 2010 actually was to enforce term limits and the junta did willingly give up power as soon as realistically possible.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If successful, this would be Niger's fifth coup - on the face of it, not an exception to their historical norm. Fortunately, it's too early to declare the coup a success, and the deposed government might retain more grassroots support than previously couped regimes, on account of it not being another dictatorship. There has only been one successful coup against a democratic government in Niger, and the coupists' rule ended three years later with their assassination in another coup, followed by elections.

One of Niger's coups in 2010 actually was to enforce term limits and the junta did willingly give up power as soon as realistically possible.

It was a bit more than that - the President who’d decided to abandon them had also declared he’d rule by decree.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

*snip*

All in all a great post and I agree with your conclusions and it is very important that you noted the significant role of the PRC in Africa, which the rest of the participants in the discussion stubbornly ignore, but there are some smaaaaaall contradictions with that the Russians allegedly has nothing to do for this coup:

I also see an Indian flag there, but we both agree that the Indian government probably wasn’t behind the coup. Supporters of Russia have hopes that the coup works in their favour, and supporters of the coup hope Russia will support what looks to be a rather isolated new regime; people on the ground may also be socially signalling in a way they hope will earn them credit from their new government. It is true that Russia has pursued warmer relations a lot of the newer dictatorships - once these dictatorships have actually gotten started, that is - and some Nigeriens may be expecting this to happen here.

However, none of this means the Russian government bears much responsibility for the coup itself. There were probably some propaganda/disinformation operations in French put out by sources loosely aligned or directed by the Russian government, but the effects of such campaigns are often exaggerated and this coup seems to have been driven by the actions of a few elites rather than a popular revolt.

Edit: see Oleg’s post below w.r.t. the “Indian” flag: it is Niger’s.

[CumbrianLefty]

The discourse in here is somehow worse despite many of the usual suspects being absent, so I've made the mistake of trying to address some of the worst bits.

Niger is neither a fully-fledged democracy nor a permanent colony to be directly transferred from French to Russian control by virtue of a military coup which seemed to involve neither French nor Russian personnel. The greatest loss as a result of this coup will be to Niger and its people, but the good news is that they are far more capable of changing their destiny than tenuously connected foreign powers which are likely to underestimate a small, landlocked country half a world away.

Until the coup, Niger was - at best - an emerging democracy with serious repression problems, in part on account of the Islamist insurgency but also because of various historical issues, widespread poverty and the rising regional instability/cost of living issues (partly a result of climate change, which poses a greater risk in the long term). Despite this, it was in a better position than most other countries in the Sahel, and Niger's first peaceful transfer of power (from one elected leader to another) two years earlier meant there was much room for optimism.

The French had outsized influence there (originally secured through colonialism, and still featuring economic exploitation by a number of large French companies), but they were not the only partner and Nigerien trade went well beyond a single natural resource you might find on a Catan hex tile. China made a number of oil investments there in the last 10-15 years, IIRC, and uranium mining has been experiencing significant decline for a similar period (whether this will change is TBD).

The speed of this coup would suggest even French influence is rather limited - and the idea that the FSB would do this principally for the uranium (not exactly in short supply in Russia) is a little bit out there (again, the Catan mindset - I wouldn't put it past Russian officials to think this way, but it's too far to speculate in this context).

I would like to point out that, at this time, the new regime has not yet stated they wish to expel the French, and the French government has worked (and continues to work) with plenty of African dictatorships. They have condemned this particular coup, but the wording was quite weak and Macron isn't known for his consistency.

Coups have been horribly common in the Sahel since decolonisation and may well become more so because of difficult and worsening living conditions, respectively. The War on Terror did not help matters, but it wasn't as if foreign countries weren't grooming soldiers prior to that - for instance, Libya's Haftar is a former CIA asset from the Cold War.

If successful, this would be Niger's fifth coup - on the face of it, not an exception to their historical norm. Fortunately, it's too early to declare the coup a success, and the deposed government might retain more grassroots support than previously couped regimes, on account of it not being another dictatorship. There has only been one successful coup against a democratic government in Niger, and the coupists' rule ended three years later with their assassination in another coup, followed by elections.

An excellent overview, as one might expect from you.

Can't resist addressing the bolded bit, though - its getting on for half a million square miles in area!

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I also see an Indian flag there, but we both agree that the Indian government probably wasn’t behind the coup.

Maybe I'm not looking well, but I only see the Niger flag, which is really very similar to the Indian flag. I think it's safe to say that Nigeriens are involved in this coup.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I wonder what will happen to Bazoum? While he’s alive he will be a symbol of resistance against the coup but on the other if they kill him that risks some form of Western intervention as he is viewed as the legitimate head of government by the West

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The discourse in here is somehow worse despite many of the usual suspects being absent, so I've made the mistake of trying to address some of the worst bits.

Niger is neither a fully-fledged democracy nor a permanent colony to be directly transferred from French to Russian control by virtue of a military coup which seemed to involve neither French nor Russian personnel. The greatest loss as a result of this coup will be to Niger and its people, but the good news is that they are far more capable of changing their destiny than tenuously connected foreign powers which are likely to underestimate a small, landlocked country half a world away.

Can't resist addressing the bolded bit, though - its getting on for half a million square miles in area!

In absolute terms, you are correct - I was, perhaps, comparing it too closely to its neighbours. Its economy is small and its population, at 30 million, is mid-sized. It has a large landmass but so do many of its neighbours.

Even in regional rather than global politics, I would consider Algeria, Morocco and Nigeria to be far more relevant (and to a lesser extent, Ghana and the Ivory Coast).

[DavidB.]

Niger had 11 million inhabitants in 2000, has 25 million now; it is expected to have a whopping 66 million in 2050 and 166 million in 2100. Any ruler of Niger can weaponize this against Europe. For this reason alone we cannot allow Russia to take over here.

[Storr]

ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African States. Only in the junta's fantasies would this be actually happening.

https://twitter.com/GIntelWatch/status/1685391995026407425?s=20

[PSOL]

Niger had 11 million inhabitants in 2000, has 25 million now; it is expected to have a whopping 66 million in 2050 and 166 million in 2100. Any ruler of Niger can weaponize this against Europe. For this reason alone we cannot allow Russia to take over here.

Get over yourself. The “migrant crisis” is over.

ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African States. Only in the junta's fantasies would this be actually happening.

https://twitter.com/GIntelWatch/status/1685391995026407425?s=20

The Gambian campaign went pretty successfully in restoring democracy. I wouldn’t be opposed to this

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I was just thinking that it had been a while since we'd had a coup in Africa. /s

Anyway, hopefully this regime is short-lived and semi-democratic governance at the very least is restored.

[Hindsight was 2020]

ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African States. Only in the junta's fantasies would this be actually happening.

https://twitter.com/GIntelWatch/status/1685391995026407425?s=20

Don’t be too sure of that
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1685632390855532544?s=20

[Mopsus]

Niger had 11 million inhabitants in 2000, has 25 million now; it is expected to have a whopping 66 million in 2050 and 166 million in 2100. Any ruler of Niger can weaponize this against Europe. For this reason alone we cannot allow Russia to take over here.

Get over yourself. The “migrant crisis” is over.

How are these countries going to be able to support hundreds of millions of more people while having their governments overthrown every other year?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Also, I doubt that Russia will allow Africa to feed these hundreds of millions, when by promising free grain in words Putin actually deprives Africa of grain in deed.

[Cashew]

What is Nigeria's position though? It's hard to imagine ECOWAS would try to intervene if their biggest member sat it out.

[Storr]

ECOWAS is the Economic Community of West African States. Only in the junta's fantasies would this be actually happening.

https://twitter.com/GIntelWatch/status/1685391995026407425?s=20

I was wrong. Blinken has now spoken about Niger:

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1685787484309917696?s=20