West African Crisis

[PSOL]

ECOWAS didn’t intervene in Mali, Guinea, or Burkina Faso when they experienced their coups. Like Gambia, they prefer to go for brief interventions with little possible pushback. I will say though, compared to the small country of 2.5 million, invading Niger with only the backing of 55% of the population will be the most consuming intervention yet, more intensive than the fight against the various northern insurgents in Mali.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

This is a MASSIVE failure on both France and Biden’s fault. Truly despicable, this actually is a big deal.

This is the real takeaway (granted, I'd replace "Biden" with "the American foreign policy establishment") and basically all the coverage is missing the real story. The chain of events here is:

1. The GWOT from 2001 to 2003 creates chaos in the Islamic world and ironically leads to the creation of several Salafist groups in places where Islamic extremism was previously unheard of, though at first the impact west of Egypt is minimal.

2. NATO (but primarily the US and France) overthrows Gaddafi in 2011. The chaos in Libya soon pushes previously pro-Gaddafi armed Tuaregs south and west across the Sahara, where they use their recent war experience to try carving out a Tuareg state from Mali. Not far behind them are previously anti-Gaddafi Islamists armed and trained by the Western powers and happy to spread their Jihad to the militarily weak nations of the Sahel. At one point previously hostile forces even worked together to dislodge the local governments from vast swathes of territory before their excessive gains led to infighting. The fighting combined with the promise of escape through Libya to Europe creates a flood of refugees moving north and creates even more chaos.

3. To counteract the Western armed Islamists pouring out of Libya and Algeria the French and Americans decided to throw their support behind the local governments in the form of money, equipment and milltary training. But it turns out when you combine nonexistent local institutions with a disproportionately huge, well trained and equipped military you get a perfect environment for coups. After all, if you're a general that's about to be fired you have little to lose and everything to gain and if you secure the army's backing there's no institution that can stop you.

The Americans and French literally created a crisis out of whole cloth and an incredible opportunity for Russia to swoop in with zero effort. It's like that time the German airforce beat the German navy but on a geopolitical level.

ECOWAS didn’t intervene in Mali, Guinea, or Burkina Faso when they experienced their coups. Like Gambia, they prefer to go for brief interventions with little possible pushback. I will say though, compared to the small country of 2.5 million, invading Niger with only the backing of 55% of the population will be the most consuming intervention yet, more intensive than the fight against the various northern insurgents in Mali.

Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso aren't nearly as strategically important. Niger is the single largest exporter of Uranium to the European Union and has plenty of valuable untapped minerals available for whichever government or heavily armed mercenary group wins over the local authorities. It's also at the heart of the Franco-American intervention in the Sahel and has an enormous amount of resources pumped into it compared with its neighbours. Just one drone base, Niger Air Base 201, has cost the American taxpayer upwards of $100,000,000 (yes, 100 million dollars, I didn't misplace a decimal point). Regardless of the platitudes it's clear that the French and Americans aren't going to just sit back and let a coup hand the jewel of AFRICOM over to Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Everyone is talking about an ECOWAS military intervention but that would go very badly. While the Nigerian army (the only serious offensive-capable fighting force in ECOWAS) definitely has the Nigeriens outgunned, the latter would still be capable of putting up a serious fight if they wanted thanks to their Western arms and training. If the military government didn't fold immediately the situation could very quickly get out of hand: Mali and Burkina Faso could intervene against Nigeria and the putschists could even appeal to Wagner for direct support. Nigeria is already dealing with a half dozen low level insurgencies ranging from Islamists in the north to Biafran revivalists in the south; an extended conflict on their northern border could cause these issues to flare up even more. Also, if Niger didn't fold immediately there's basically no better way to consolidate public support behind the coup than to launch a bloody inconclusive invasion at the behest of Niger's former colonial occupier. Also also, the war would be a catastrophe for human eyeballs, forced into a perpetual squint trying to distinguish a "Nigerian victory" from a "Nigerien victory". Nations with such similar names were never meant to fight.

More likely is that they'll try applying the heaviest diplomatic and economic pressure possible to bring back the old regime with minimal friction. If that fails I expect the French to create some excuse to step in directly, possibly in concert with the Nigerians.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If the military government didn't fold immediately the situation could very quickly get out of hand: Mali and Burkina Faso could intervene against Nigeria and the putschists could even appeal to Wagner for direct support.

and just a day later the situation is indeed getting out of hand:

https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1686118478367903744

https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1686133170364661761

[PSOL]

The regime in Burkina Faso pardoned the killers of Sankara. Another front of an inter-imperialist war, just like in Ethiopia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The US and other Western countries should declare the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland to be a terrorist organization.

[Red Velvet]

Hasn’t Mali dumped French as their Official language just these days or so?

Not a good week to be France or Western. Their grip on Africa seems to be diminishing much faster than anticipated, bumped by a mix of a wide variety of factors coming from all over the place.

- Decentralization of hardline Islamic terrorists having disastrous consequences for them after being something propelled by their fun Western Adventures in the Middle East. Do people really think terrorism is over because Islamic State doesn’t control large swathes of Syria or Iraq?? Many just moved to other countries, from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Northern Africa (which includes Sahel region with Mali/Burkina Faso/Niger) or Somalia. Which stimulates more chaos in more places and adds more fuel to anti-establishment sentiment in them.

Like, stuff like stimulating revolutions on Libya only gave these groups more access to resources and weapons they didn’t have access to. Not that they needed chaos in Libya for that, but it certainly helped them.

- Massive Chinese investments basically swallowing up Africa in its entirety for the last decade and creating a new geopolitical reality, something beyond ideological preferences, where China just has more influence in the African continent than the West has.

- Anti-Colonial sentiment getting a revival following the rich countries vaccine nationalism. Westerners who somehow think they can push Global South, especially Africa, into supporting Ukraine out of a narrative of sympathy for anti-imperialism really don’t get that for the average person in those places, it’s their countries that have done this (still do, some places in Africa still pay colonial taxes to France because if their independence!!!), so by bringing up “anti-imperialism” to the center of discussions, you’re only reminding these places more why they should resent you! Lmaaaaao

- Russia seeing all this chaos and using the opportunity to get a new African government on its side, one that is a main source of Uranium for Europe, sticking it up to France in the meantime.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

- Massive Chinese investments basic swallowing up Africa in its entirety for the last decade and creating a new geopolitical reality, something beyond ideological preferences, where China just has more influence in the African continent than the West has.

By the way about this. Is FOCAC going to work out any solution for Niger?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It's a little funny that half the outrage in this thread is over France losing its neocolonial grip on west Africa in favor of Russian neocolonialism. Whether the uranium is being exploited by the west or by Russia doesn't do much to help the people of Niger.

but it weakens the West and strengthens our enemies.

I think you missed the point.

Atlas is one of the most hypocritical places on the internet, fr.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Like, stuff like stimulating revolutions on Libya only gave these groups more access to resources and weapons they didn’t have access to. Not that they needed chaos in Libya for that, but it certainly helped them.

Not just Libya, but we all know how well it went for Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

And as you say it makes a lot of sense that all of Africa and Middle East would hate Europe.

[Lord Halifax]

It's a little funny that half the outrage in this thread is over France losing its neocolonial grip on west Africa in favor of Russian neocolonialism. Whether the uranium is being exploited by the west or by Russia doesn't do much to help the people of Niger.

but it weakens the West and strengthens our enemies.

I think you missed the point.

Atlas is one of the most hypocritical places on the internet, fr.

no I didn't miss anything, I simply disagreed with his perspective and pointed out that the interests of the local population aren't the only relevant ones when the West has such vital economic and security interests in a place. French neocolonialism is objectively much better for the West than Russian or Chinese neocolonialism.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Colonialism is an inefficient model. Spain and Portugal poured all their power into the hole of the colonies. Now the PRC is pumping almost all African countries with from hundreds of millions to billions USD and forgiving them the same huge debts in the hope of political profit, because Africa has little to give the PRC economically.

[Red Velvet]

Like, stuff like stimulating revolutions on Libya only gave these groups more access to resources and weapons they didn’t have access to. Not that they needed chaos in Libya for that, but it certainly helped them.

Not just Libya, but we all know how well it went for Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

And as you say it makes a lot of sense that all of Africa and Middle East would hate Europe.

Libya is more significant as a Western Failure of policy because it borders Niger. For the weapon trafficking to reach there is just a quick go to the shop.

Did you know that half of terrorist attacks today happen in Africa? Not Europe or the Middle East, it’s in Africa, mainly the islamic parts. You basically had the Islamic extremist cells the westerners were “fighting” just dissipate all throughout the muslim world where they can hide better in undercover.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/burkina-faso-and-mali-warn-against-foreign-intervention-after-niger-coup

Burkina Faso, Mali warn against military intervention in Niger

"Niger’s neighbours say any intervention to restore deposed President Mohamed Bazoum will be considered a ‘declaration of war’ against them."

This seems mostly directed at France.  I believe Guinea made similar statements. 

[Zinneke]

Then France should recognize breakaway states of these countries' regimes, based on the principle of self-determination. It should be open bar for any Putin-loving dictator now to have this as a problem, since they implicitly endorse Putin's justification for recognising LPR and DPR.

Their states are artificial, and their sovereignty is too so long as foreign powers of all stripes sponsor the greedy "big men" and their political enablers.

[lfromnj]

Hasn’t Mali dumped French as their Official language just these days or so?

Mostly symbolic. If you have "13" official languages there isn't really an official one.

[AAPSO]

The reactions here perfectly encapsulate why this can be expected to continue happening across the African continent.

[It’s so Joever]

We should threaten to cut foreign aid, inlucidng any “humanitarian aid” we provide (but not actually do it of course, the aid is still a tool)

[Sir Mohamed]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/burkina-faso-and-mali-warn-against-foreign-intervention-after-niger-coup

Burkina Faso, Mali warn against military intervention in Niger

"Niger’s neighbours say any intervention to restore deposed President Mohamed Bazoum will be considered a ‘declaration of war’ against them."

This seems mostly directed at France.  I believe Guinea made similar statements. 

I'd be surprised if Macron was actually spending any political capital on an intervention. Not happening.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1686376864166957058

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/DailyInsighter/status/1686375185115496448

Mauritania joins Guinea, Mali & Burkina Faso in opposing military intervention and saying intervention would be seen as a DOW.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1686376864166957058

Aren't all the realistic paths to export going through ECOWAS countries?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1686135019071553542

Algeria also seems to support Niger in case it would be invaded.

https://twitter.com/SpriterTeam/status/1686382854157254658

Senegal has their own business

Central African Republic, Chad and Libya seem to be supportive of Niger as well, though i can't verify any of those.

Perhaps we will get a "Great West African War" if people don't back down.

[Red Velvet]

The reactions here perfectly encapsulate why this can be expected to continue happening across the African continent.

Pretty much. Westerners always get shook when they realize most people in the South don’t see them as saviors or heroes of democracy like their propaganda tells them they are and tend to resort to self-victimization or reinforcing the behaviors that push Southerners away from them.

It’s not even like the coup in Niger is a great thing for people there to be excited about, they will just keep being explored but more by a different group, but Western reputation - especially French legacy more specifically - is so rotten there that it’s common to see any break with Western alliances like fresh air or something. Like, it’s absurd some African countries still pay colonial taxes to France.

If the Western powers cared about Africa, they would put the same investments and high technology that China is putting in order to assert their influence. So I don’t really understand why people pretend to care about some coup in Africa to put a leadership that is an ally to Russia + China and hostile to the West. In every other single day, the West ignores Africa or takes it for granted.

[Zinneke]

Ah yes the West's governments famously doesn't invest in infrastructure and technology in Africa, that old trope. God forbid it actually wants to improve the lives of ordinary citizens there, even if by a slither compared to the PRC and Russia, who mainly are concerned about the dictator in place and stabilising such a regime, to a higher degree than the West.

What the PRC is doing there is more toxic than anything the West has done in the last 30 years there, and I don't think the West has clean hands either. But all these human rights programs that went with the ACP-EU trade deal weren't always just fluff, they helped a lot of people. The PRC won't care because it has no interest in the ordinary livelihood of Africans, as opposed to the slither of interest we show.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1686327756487852032?s=20

https://twitter.com/casusbellii/status/1686352095690055680?s=20