Why was Colorado still looked at as a swing state/competitive in 2016?

[Cyrusman]

Both Trump and Clinton visited the state multiple times, both invested money in it, and for being a very educated state, Trump was still viewed as being competitive in CO in 2016. I remember a few polls even had him up around September of 2016, and all other polls only showed Clinton with a small lead.

Why was it still competitiveish and still hadn't been fully "gone" for the GOP?

[Vosem]

As late as 2016 the Republicans won the popular vote for the Colorado legislature, and they did so pretty comfortably in 2014, along with multiple statewide offices. (Only Governor and Senator were actually particularly closely contested that year). Under the 2012/2014-era trends, if anything it seemed to be trending back to the right.

Colorado, which is really rapidly becoming a more-educated state, has some kind of weird and unique dynamics; its state constitution, which includes TABOR, forces it to be significantly more 'fiscally conservative' than most state governments, and it has a pretty moderate set of leading Democrats for such a Democratic state. It's also very vulnerable to trends among college-educated voters, and has persistently high third-party totals.

[WalterWhite]

Both Trump and Clinton visited the state multiple times, both invested money in it, and for being a very educated state, Trump was still viewed as being competitive in CO in 2016. I remember a few polls even had him up around September of 2016, and all other polls only showed Clinton with a small lead.

Why was it still competitiveish and still hadn't been fully "gone" for the GOP?

- By Election Day 2016, Clinton was only up 3% in Colorado. (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov08.html)

- A Republican won a Senate seat in Colorado two years prior.

- Obama only won Colorado by single digits in each of his bids for the presidency (5.4% in 2012, 9.0% in 2008), as did Bush (4.7% in 2004, 8.4% in 2000).

- Colorado was a single-digit state in every single election from 1988 to 2012. As of the 2016 election, Colorado had the longest streak of voting within single digits out of any state.

- Colorado voted for both Republican and Democratic POTUS candidates from 1988 to 2012.

- Gary Johnson was expected to (and did) take a large portion of socially liberal voters.

As to why Colorado shifted sharply leftward after 2016, a few reasons can explain that:

- Denver has seen massive growth throughout the 2010s, and people in urban areas tend to vote Democratic.

- Colorado is a very white college-educated state, and the shift for white college-educated voters to vote Democratic only started after 2016.

- The increasing polarization on ideological lines (as opposed to racial lines) meant that Colorado, a very socially liberal state, would invariably vote solidly Democratic.

- The anti-masking and anti-vaccinating attitudes of some Republican politicians alienated college educated voters in Colorado.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There was actually a huge forum meme in 2015/early 2016 about Colorado being Likely R in 2016 due to Hillary being a terrible fit for the state.

I'd also add that suburban trends were much more ambiguous and not treated in the way they are now before 2016.  In fact, most suburbs had trended pretty significantly to the right in the early 2010s (the 2010, 2012, and 2014 elections).

[TwinGeeks99]

The GOP had just won a Senate race in 2014 and the state had voted more or less in line with the popular vote in the last two elections.

[DS0816]

Both Trump and Clinton visited the state multiple times, both invested money in it, and for being a very educated state, Trump was still viewed as being competitive in CO in 2016. I remember a few polls even had him up around September of 2016, and all other polls only showed Clinton with a small lead.

Why was [Colorado] still competitiveish and still hadn't been fully "gone" for the GOP?

Election 2008 was a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Barack Obama. One of his pickup states was Colorado. It was the Tipping-Point State in both 2008 and 2012, when Obama was re-elected in a Democratic hold, and gave the party their 278 and 272 electoral votes before factoring other carried states.

Election 2016 was a Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump. He did not flip Colorado. His and his party’s path to winning the presidency became re-routed.

Colorado, in 2008 and 2012, was the Democrats’s No. 23 best state. That is usually where the Democrats, in an election in which they are the prevailing party, win. Colorado, in 2016 and 2020, became the party’s No. 16 and No. 14 best state.

What should also be considered in this is Virginia. That state and Colorado have voted the same in every presidential election, with exception in 1992, since 1948—so, 18 of the last 19 election cycles—to the most recent in 2020.

When it comes to the ranks of best-performed states, Colorado and Virginia are, by my estimation, the Nos. 15 and 16 for the Democrats. This means it puts the Republicans in a position in which they need to win the presidency with 36 states to carry both Virginia and Colorado. And, since 1992, no presidential winner has carried more than 32 states.

In the early period of the presidency of Obama, there were not enough people who correctly concluded that, effective 2008, Colorado flipping Democrat was it—and Virginia (and New Mexico and Nevada)—realigning to the Democratic Party for U.S. President. I touch on this here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566.

[Mr. Smith]

Gardner just won the Senate in the previous midterms and it was literally the tipping point the last two elections.

Honestly, if it weren't for the WI/MI/PA trio being so evidently close even as it was called, that Hillary won the state surprisingly fast would've been a positive sign for her, even with Florida and Ohio.

[Del Tachi]

Colorado was the tipping point in 2008 and 2012; so it was seen as more essential to each party's 270 calculus than WI, PA, AZ, etc.

[It’s so Joever]

As late as 2016 the Republicans won the popular vote for the Colorado legislature, and they did so pretty comfortably in 2014, along with multiple statewide offices. (Only Governor and Senator were actually particularly closely contested that year). Under the 2012/2014-era trends, if anything it seemed to be trending back to the right.

Colorado, which is really rapidly becoming a more-educated state, has some kind of weird and unique dynamics; its state constitution, which includes TABOR, forces it to be significantly more 'fiscally conservative' than most state governments, and it has a pretty moderate set of leading Democrats for such a Democratic state. It's also very vulnerable to trends among college-educated voters, and has persistently high third-party totals.

TABOR and the Gallagher amendment was the bane of our existence when I was in a youth policy group back in high school. They seriously screw up basic funding. One down, hopefully the monstrosity that is TABOR falls soon.