Realigning States
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Realigning States
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DS0816
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« on: May 06, 2021, 04:57:15 PM »





Since 1968, every United States presidential election which resulted in a party switch in the White House saw at least one state flip for a pickup winning Republican or Democrat. The party which lost a given state, to a Republican or Democratic pickup winner, has since not won that state again.

In the first map—using red for Republican and blue for Democratic—are a timeline:

• 1968 Republican (Richard Nixon): *Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska [statewide and the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts], North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming [Note: *Alaska, with the vote since 1960, carried Democratic only with Lyndon Johnson’s 44-state landslide in 1964]
• 1976 Democratic (Jimmy Carter): Minnesota
• 1980 Republican (Ronald Reagan): Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas
• 1992 Democratic (Bill Clinton): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine [statewide and the 1st Congressional District], Maryland, New Jersey, and Vermont
• 2000 Republican (George W. Bush): Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
• 2008 Democratic (Barack Obama): Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia.


The last two party switches, with the pickups, were as follows:

• 2016 Republican (Donald Trump): Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well as Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
• 2020 Democratic (Joe Biden): Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as well as Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.


The first map does not count any of the 2016 Republican and the 2020 Democratic pickups.

The second map is my estimation of Realigning States for the ones which were applicable with the Republican and Democratic presidential pickup years of 2016 and 2020. I suspect Florida, Iowa, Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and Ohio may have realigned Republican. I also suspect Arizona, Georgia, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District may have realigned Democratic.

The Rust Belt trio of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the only states which carried with all the last four election cycles—three of them won by the Democrats (2008, 2012, and 2020); one by the Republicans (2016)—and I suspect they are nowadays the nation’s most reliable bellwether states. This is why they are highlighted, in the second map, in purple.


(Worth consideration: With the next United States presidential election which switches the White House to the Republicans, what may be their newly realigned states?)
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2021, 12:40:08 AM »

Only one I can think of is maybe North Carolina, which has gone blue only once (2008) since Jimmy Carter's victory.

Maaaaybe Nevada for the Republicans.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2023, 04:34:20 AM »

It seems inconsistent to treat Nevada as trending Dem but not Washington, when the former is always a squeaker apart from Obama's runs.

A simple regression shows a consistent Dem margin increase of 1.7 points per cycle in Washington since 1988.

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DS0816
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2023, 10:23:36 AM »

It seems inconsistent to treat Nevada as trending Dem but not Washington, when the former is always a squeaker apart from Obama's runs.

A simple regression shows a consistent Dem margin increase of 1.7 points per cycle in Washington since 1988.


This topic addresses the eight U.S. presidential election cycles in which there were party switches for the White House—they occurred in 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016, and 2020—and the states which flipped for the pickup-winning party but have since not flipped back to the party which lost that applicable, given state.

The United States presidential election of 1988 was a Republican hold for the presidency specifically to George Bush.

The United States presidential election of 2008 was a Democratic pickup for the presidency specifically to Barack Obama. One of his pickup states, Nevada, has since not flipped back to the party [the Republican Party] which lost it.
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