When will Virginia...

[WalterWhite]

1) Elect a Republican to the Presidency?
2) Elect a Republican to the Senate?
3) Elect a majority-Republican delegation to the House?

Since 2006, Virginia has been trending left. This started in 2006, with Democrat Jim Webb defeating the incumbent Republican George Allen in the Senate race. This continued in 2008, when both Democrats Mark Warner and Barack Obama won the states. Ever since, Virginia has elected exclusively Democrats to both the Presidency and the Senate.

However, during this time period (with the exception of 2008), Republicans still retained control of Virginia's House delegation. This changed in 2018, when Democrats won 7 House seats in Virginia, compared to the 4 Republican victories in that state that same year. This result was replicated in 2020; in 2022 (a year that benefitted Republicans in House elections), the Republicans gained a seat, but the Virginia House delegation still remained Democratic.

All of these signs point to Virginia becoming a blue state. At the federal level (POTUS and Congress), Democrats have dominated Virginia politics—even in Republican-favoring years. With this in mind, when will Republicans be able to achieve any victory in Virginia on the federal level? When will Republicans will a Presidential or Senate race in Virginia? When will Republicans win the majority of Virginia congressional districts?

[DS0816]

1) Elect a Republican to the Presidency?
…

In other words: When will [be the next year on record that] the state of Virginia carries Republican [for a candidate who also wins that given U.S. presidential election]?

I would guess the 2040s.

At the same time…so, too, would the state of Colorado.

With exception in 1992, Virginia and Colorado have carried the same in all U.S. presidential elections since 1948. (My related topic: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566.)

I think, since 2008, when the two states realigned to the Democrats (on the level of U.S. President), it put the Republicans into a position of being not viable to carry either for a few decades. That a winning Republican—example, so far, with 2016—ends up with a map in which Virginia and Colorado will still carry in the Democratic column.

[Agonized-Statism]

When the rest of the old Confederacy goes Democrat and they have to be contrarians as usual.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Rs can absolutely win a senate race in Virginia if the 3 things happen:
1) Red wave midterm
2) No Dem incumbent
3) Good/credible R candidate

[Frodo]

When the rest of the old Confederacy goes Democrat and they have to be contrarians as usual.

So never, as I don't see another Solid South arising ever again for either major party.  

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think Rs can absolutely win a senate race in Virginia if the 3 things happen:
1) Red wave midterm
2) No Dem incumbent
3) Good/credible R candidate

Yeah, and that's pretty much what led to Youngkin. Republicans can still put up a respectable showing due to the large rural base, so while flipping enough suburbanites to actually flip the state is difficult, it's not impossible. Whereas somewhere like Colorado, their rural base is much smaller, and the GOP needs to flip basically an impossible number of suburbanites to win outright.

[Skill and Chance]

I think Rs can absolutely win a senate race in Virginia if the 3 things happen:
1) Red wave midterm
2) No Dem incumbent
3) Good/credible R candidate

Yeah, and that's pretty much what led to Youngkin. Republicans can still put up a respectable showing due to the large rural base, so while flipping enough suburbanites to actually flip the state is difficult, it's not impossible. Whereas somewhere like Colorado, their rural base is much smaller, and the GOP needs to flip basically an impossible number of suburbanites to win outright.

There's also interesting redistricting effects.  Even though they were both drawn by an independent process, CO ended up with both legislative chambers having >70% of the districts won by Biden, but through a separate process,  a CD map where Dems only barely won the 5th district of 8 in 2022.  VA ended up with a state senate map that is almost Safe D (where R's have to break through in nearly Biden +20 areas to get the last 1-2 seats for a majority), but a state house map where the seat Dems would need to take control leans significantly R relative to the state.  The chamber is currently held by R's, and is no sure thing to flip Dem this fall.  The 2 special masters, 1 of each party, basically admitted that they agreed to this as a compromise!  The congressional map is very mildly R-leaning.  The median district is like 1% more R relative to the state, but was easily held by Spanberger last year.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I could see a Republican winning in a red wave year if it's a good candidate. Warner almost lost a few cycles ago IIRC. Republicans have good chances at winning the governorship because VA has weird year elections.

As for presidential level victories, it may be a long time. Northern VA votes almost 70% for Democrats now, and there is not a large enough rural base to overcome those margins. As long as the GOP continues to nominate Trump or MAGA like candidates for president, VA is going to be very much out of reach.

[Person Man]

I could see a Republican winning in a red wave year if it's a good candidate. Warner almost lost a few cycles ago IIRC. Republicans have good chances at winning the governorship because VA has weird year elections.

As for presidential level victories, it may be a long time. Northern VA votes almost 70% for Democrats now, and there is not a large enough rural base to overcome those margins. As long as the GOP continues to nominate Trump or MAGA like candidates for president, VA is going to be very much out of reach.

Basically they are staying relevant by losing the same way that Democrats used to between the Vietnam years and the 90s. They were able to hold on to some power despite being unpopular because 1) they were never actually the incumbent so they could always campaign against the incumbent and 2) they still have strong enough roots in the local community to turn out and win important local elections.