OH-9 megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up

Not if the redistricting amendment passes next year

[Rjjr77]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up

Not if the redistricting amendment passes next year

Yes especially if they do. A Redistriting amendment would benefit the East and hurt marcy, you couldnt create a district that is compact and pro dem for her, and a close race would include wood which brings latta into the mix, as much as folks talk about marcy the latta name is way stronger, she loses to bob. Easy

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up

Not if the redistricting amendment passes next year

Yes especially if they do. A Redistriting amendment would benefit the East and hurt marcy, you couldnt create a district that is compact and pro dem for her, and a close race would include wood which brings latta into the mix, as much as folks talk about marcy the latta name is way stronger, she loses to bob. Easy

Erie County stays and the more Republican rural western counties get chopped under a fair map.  This is Republican wish-casting.

[Oryxslayer]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up

Not if the redistricting amendment passes next year

Yes especially if they do. A Redistriting amendment would benefit the East and hurt marcy, you couldnt create a district that is compact and pro dem for her, and a close race would include wood which brings latta into the mix, as much as folks talk about marcy the latta name is way stronger, she loses to bob. Easy

I can't believe this guy is talking confidently but they haven't read the text of the amendment. If they did, they would realize the commission is seemingly a copy of Michigan and specifically has the desire for an equitable partisan distribution as a priority goal. There's basically no scenario where the commission passes with it's current language, as approved by the state boards, and doesn't put the Toledo/Wood pairing in a competitive or D-leaning seat. Cause they can't reach a equitable distribution sinking a huge D city. And that will require maintaining sending it east.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Brown wins like he is winning by 3 despite the Prez Eday she will survive

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1735390517322502560?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1737574474818437153?t=jYThOkHmRJoNQzmf58c...

Third candidate in to try and prevent Majewski.

[Schiff for Senate]

Kaptur's winning this whether it's against Majewski or Merrin. Calling it now.
Remind me about this post after Election Day if she doesn't.

[Schiff for Senate]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Disagree. Wood is far less Republican than the rurals - in fact, such a seat would probably be narrowly D even on the presidential level. And Idt Kaptur would underperform the top of the ticket, not even against Latta.

[Schiff for Senate]

Kind of proving my point right here about Kaptur being a strong enough candidate to win against Merrin or Majewski even if Trump wins the seat by more than 2020:

While the Republican candidates are desperately trying to prove their fealty to Donald Trump, what is Marcy Kaptur doing?

Congresswoman Kaptur is focused on bringing meaningful investment to Northern Ohio, renewing and rebuilding aging infrastructure, and bringing down costs for Americans paying too much for life-saving prescription drugs.”

Marcy Kaptur is loyal to the people. The Republicans in this race are more worried about Trump than for ordinary, hardworking Ohioans.

Now obviously that would need to be reworded, but that kind of messaging would be quite potent, imo. Rn it's implied and she isn't explicitly calling them out for seeking Trump's approval, but in the GE, this sort of explicit attack will likely be brought up, and I think with success.

[Pollster]

Really a testament to the strength of the GOP bench in this district that the last-minute, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency candidate is the failed State House Speaker nominee who got rolled by his own party.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Really a testament to the strength of the GOP bench in this district that the last-minute, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency candidate is the failed State House Speaker nominee who got rolled by his own party.

I mean, I don’t know that the GOP bench here can be that strong when they nominated Majewski last time, saw the establishment’s preferred candidate implode right before the filing deadline, and are currently - barring unforeseen drop outs - on track to nominate Majewski a second time in a row given that the anti-Majewski vote is on track to split three ways in the primary. 

Also, the fact that Merrin lost the Speaker race b/c of how many of his colleagues decided they’d rather team up with Democrats to elect someone else than tolerate him as Speaker doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in Merrin’s political chops nor in his ability to unite Republicans. 

[Pollster]

Really a testament to the strength of the GOP bench in this district that the last-minute, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency candidate is the failed State House Speaker nominee who got rolled by his own party.

I don’t think we can praise the strength of the GOP bench too much when they nominated Majewski last time, saw the establishment’s preferred candidate implode right before the filing deadline, and are currently - barring unforeseen drop outs - on track to nominate Majewski a second time in a row given that the anti-Majewski vote is on track to split three ways in the primary.

I hope my post isn't being misunderstood as praise for the GOP bench here!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Really a testament to the strength of the GOP bench in this district that the last-minute, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency candidate is the failed State House Speaker nominee who got rolled by his own party.

I don’t think we can praise the strength of the GOP bench too much when they nominated Majewski last time, saw the establishment’s preferred candidate implode right before the filing deadline, and are currently - barring unforeseen drop outs - on track to nominate Majewski a second time in a row given that the anti-Majewski vote is on track to split three ways in the primary.

I hope my post isn't being misunderstood as praise for the GOP bench here!

Oh, I thought you were praising their bench, my bad!

[Yoda]

Kaptur is 78 years old and bound to retire by 2026 or 2028. Ohio GOP is probably going to wait it out till then.

Very likely not going to retire anytime soon. She's put in a ton of time waiting in line to chair Appropriations.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kaptur is 78 years old and bound to retire by 2026 or 2028. Ohio GOP is probably going to wait it out till then.

Very likely not going to retire anytime soon. She's put in a ton of time waiting in line to chair Appropriations.

Also if a redistricting commission is passed she'll probably drop the western rurals in exchange for Wood County which would make her path towards re-election easier.

[Yoda]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

By the time she retires, Ohio voters will have passed real gerrymandering reform through the ballot amendment process. This very likely passes this November, and if not, definitely in '26.

Without republican politicians gerrymandering the district to give it a slight republican lean, it's extremely hard to see OH-09 becoming anything other than lean dem at worst. A fairly drawn 9th district by anyone remotely serious would at it's core include Toledo and it's suburbs, Sandusky (these currently are) but add Bowling Green (and all of Wood County) while the current map intentionally cuts Wood in two and adds far-flung western counties to the district to achieve the desired partisan republican result of a lean republican district.

[Yoda]

Kaptur is 78 years old and bound to retire by 2026 or 2028. Ohio GOP is probably going to wait it out till then.

Very likely not going to retire anytime soon. She's put in a ton of time waiting in line to chair Appropriations.

Also if a redistricting commission is passed she'll probably drop the western rurals in exchange for Wood County which would make her path towards re-election easier.

Ha! You beat me to it.

[Yoda]

Anyway, on to the reason I dug up this thread before I got derailed reading comments.

Kaptur's reelection was never really in doubt, considering I think she was the #2 House member in the country (only behind Peltola in Alaska I believe) as far as over performing the partisan lean of her district, but I think we can all hold a moment of silence for the death of the Majewski campaign:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ohio-jr-majewski-ableist-slur-democrats-special-olympics-2024-2

[Yoda]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Disagree. Wood is far less Republican than the rurals - in fact, such a seat would probably be narrowly D even on the presidential level. And Idt Kaptur would underperform the top of the ticket, not even against Latta.

I think some posters don't realize that the half of Wood County that it is NOT currently in the 9th is the half with Bowling Green, a large college town.

[kwabbit]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

By the time she retires, Ohio voters will have passed real gerrymandering reform through the ballot amendment process. This very likely passes this November, and if not, definitely in '26.

Without republican politicians gerrymandering the district to give it a slight republican lean, it's extremely hard to see OH-09 becoming anything other than lean dem at worst. A fairly drawn 9th district by anyone remotely serious would at it's core include Toledo and it's suburbs, Sandusky (these currently are) but add Bowling Green (and all of Wood County) while the current map intentionally cuts Wood in two and adds far-flung western counties to the district to achieve the desired partisan republican result of a lean republican district.

With Kaptur a fair OH-9 would never become that competitive but without her it would be Biden +0 and would definitely being a premier swing seat. That’s with all of Wood and the Lake Erie shoreline, not including Lorain County.

[Tekken_Guy]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

By the time she retires, Ohio voters will have passed real gerrymandering reform through the ballot amendment process. This very likely passes this November, and if not, definitely in '26.

Without republican politicians gerrymandering the district to give it a slight republican lean, it's extremely hard to see OH-09 becoming anything other than lean dem at worst. A fairly drawn 9th district by anyone remotely serious would at it's core include Toledo and it's suburbs, Sandusky (these currently are) but add Bowling Green (and all of Wood County) while the current map intentionally cuts Wood in two and adds far-flung western counties to the district to achieve the desired partisan republican result of a lean republican district.

With Kaptur a fair OH-9 would never become that competitive but without her it would be Biden +0 and would definitely being a premier swing seat. That’s with all of Wood and the Lake Erie shoreline, not including Lorain County.

Still, that's better for Dems post-Kaptur than the light-red seat it is today.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1762589968931692869

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1762875248452542551

[GALeftist]

Unreal. Likely D