OH-9 megathread

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/jr-majewski-gop-candidate-comeback-00099345

Majewski has withdrawn. While I wish his family good health, I think this does increase the chance the GOP picks up the seat.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/jr-majewski-gop-candidate-comeback-00099345

Majewski has withdrawn. While I wish his family good health, I think this does increase the chance the GOP picks up the seat.

Eh, Majewski was clearly terrible but he did not cost the GOP 13 whole points in that seat.

[DaleCooper]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/jr-majewski-gop-candidate-comeback-00099345

Majewski has withdrawn. While I wish his family good health, I think this does increase the chance the GOP picks up the seat.

Eh, Majewski was clearly terrible but he did not cost the GOP 13 whole points in that seat.

I don't know about that. Maybe not 13, but I'd say at least 10. He was horrible.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/jr-majewski-gop-candidate-comeback-00099345

Majewski has withdrawn. While I wish his family good health, I think this does increase the chance the GOP picks up the seat.

Eh, Majewski was clearly terrible but he did not cost the GOP 13 whole points in that seat.

I don't know about that. Maybe not 13, but I'd say at least 10. He was horrible.

The media lies about his military record which damaged him a lot, and then incompetent NRCC chair Tom Emmer cut off his funding which dealt the final blow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/jr-majewski-gop-candidate-comeback-00099345

Majewski has withdrawn. While I wish his family good health, I think this does increase the chance the GOP picks up the seat.

Eh, Majewski was clearly terrible but he did not cost the GOP 13 whole points in that seat.

I don't know about that. Maybe not 13, but I'd say at least 10. He was horrible.

The media lies about his military record which damaged him a lot, and then incompetent NRCC chair Tom Emmer cut off his funding which dealt the final blow.

Citation (or retraction) needed.  The only lies about his military record I'm aware of are the ones Majewski told himself.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's still unclear if OH-GOP will redraw and if so if they make Kaptur's seat redder. I think even against a more "normal" R, she still had a decent chance of holding this seat after seeing what she accomplished in 2022; yes a lot of that was because Majewski was bad, but basically nowhere else in the Country did we see a Dem have that kind of overperformance of pres partisanship because of a crazy R.

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/jr-majewski-gop-candidate-comeback-00099345

Majewski has withdrawn. While I wish his family good health, I think this does increase the chance the GOP picks up the seat.

Eh, Majewski was clearly terrible but he did not cost the GOP 13 whole points in that seat.

I don't know about that. Maybe not 13, but I'd say at least 10. He was horrible.

The media lies about his military record which damaged him a lot, and then incompetent NRCC chair Tom Emmer cut off his funding which dealt the final blow.

Citation (or retraction) needed.  The only lies about his military record I'm aware of are the ones Majewski told himself.

Trumpists don't retract, ever. They boldly and recklessly lie then double down when caught red-handed in the act of it, trapped into a corner. That's what makes them so hard for those of us who value the truth to even comprehend on a basic level, let alone deal with them. Every single other political opponent we've ever had, there was a predictable response when they were exposed as liars. Depending on the severity of the offense, there would be apologies, retractions, resignations even (see: Watergate, Nixon). But in this brave new world, such things are signs of "weakness" and so you're more likely to find a Republican today tripling down on his claim the sky is green than to walk it back, let alone apologize for it. It's maybe the thing they truly do have MOST in common with the "fascists" of old, a worldview where "might makes right" and the actual truth is utterly irrelevant and disposable in service of political ends and in concocting a story which fuels the grievances of the fascists. A world where "Big Lies" BECOME "the truth" in the eyes of millions if they are repeated often enough, the actual facts and evidence be damned. You've just caught our Aussie friend here merely following that spirit in an attempt to manufacture a "Big Lie" of his own. It is of course false that Majewski was ever falsely accused, and two seconds of basic research can confirm that. He's banking on people not doing that, however, on instead just taking his word for it when he lies, on muddying the waters so that the mere appearance of some kind of controversy or dispute gives false credence to the idea that there IS any such legitimate dispute. It's disgusting and insidious, but about as standard as it gets for the Trumpist right nowadays.

Basically, the Trumpist GOP's strategy when caught lying seems to be to simply copy R. Kelly's "Shaggy defense:"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She isn't losing with Sherrod Brown in the ballot the reason why Rs overperformrned in OH in 22 including Vance was due to DeWine whom is TL

Rs don't realize how strong Brown is he is not stronger than Ryan because Ryan ran with DeWine on the ballot but Brown is no Blanch Lincoln either he isn't that concerned about Dolan Brown is confident he will win

[Pollster]

Kaptur quietly ran one of the best and most in-touch Congressional campaigns of the cycle - the only reason I don't call it the best is because key members of her team were ancient and much of her media and online presence looked straight out of 1998. To their great credit, they found a way to make Jan 6 and QAnon (two relatively insulated, beltway-centric topics that a lot of less intuitive politicians could easily get lost in) feel like direct dangers to normal people in a way that no other Democrat really did (or needed to in a Trump-won district). They essentially wrote the playbook that the party now recommends to candidates running against QAnon-aligned candidates. And bear in mind they did it all while successfully avoiding nationalizing the race, without a massive war chest (Kaptur has never been a prolific fundraiser even back when fundraising was not what it is today), and with Ryan barely squeaking by and DeWine romping in the district up the ballot.

Her cartoonish opponent certainly contributed to the margin - it won't be that big against a Republican who actually knows their right hand from their left. And it helps that she is who she is and has been doing and saying what she does consistently for 40 years - that type of brand is rock-solid especially in a region that isn't attracting many new residents and where longtime residents tend to stick around. But underestimate her at your own peril - just because she's been sitting comfortably in a safe seat for decades doesn't mean she's forgotten how to do it.

[coloradocowboi]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/30/jr-majewski-gop-candidate-comeback-00099345

Majewski has withdrawn. While I wish his family good health, I think this does increase the chance the GOP picks up the seat.

Eh, Majewski was clearly terrible but he did not cost the GOP 13 whole points in that seat.

I don't know about that. Maybe not 13, but I'd say at least 10. He was horrible.

The media lies about his military record which damaged him a lot, and then incompetent NRCC chair Tom Emmer cut off his funding which dealt the final blow.

Citation (or retraction) needed.  The only lies about his military record I'm aware of are the ones Majewski told himself.

What you’re misunderstanding is that “lie” in MAGA speak means telling truths they don’t like, e.g. JR never did much in the military besides loiter around a Doha hangar bay while drinking smuggled liquor

[Pollster]

Majewski has re-entered the race.

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1708093360664137952?s=20

[Pollster]

Multiple key Ohio Republicans have withdrawn their endorsements of Craig Riedel - the McCarthy/NRCC-endorsed candidate here - in recent hours after the surfacing of this audio, Max Miller and Bernie Moreno (both of whom are known to have Trump's ear) among them.

https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1733234376362914277?s=20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think so if Brown overperforms like he always do we can hold onto seat

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Kaptur is 78 years old and bound to retire by 2026 or 2028. Ohio GOP is probably going to wait it out till then.

[Minnesota Mike]

Kaptur is 78 years old and bound to retire by 2026 or 2028. Ohio GOP is probably going to wait it out till then.

Why? She very well might but it's not exactly rare that an 80 year old  runs for re-election.

[Schiff for Senate]

It's still unclear if OH-GOP will redraw and if so if they make Kaptur's seat redder. I think even against a more "normal" R, she still had a decent chance of holding this seat after seeing what she accomplished in 2022; yes a lot of that was because Majewski was bad, but basically nowhere else in the Country did we see a Dem have that kind of overperformance of pres partisanship because of a crazy R.

Agreed. I called the race Safe D well before the election, but even I was pleasantly surprised by just how much Kaptur was able to win by.

[MarkD]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

[Tekken_Guy]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

[Rjjr77]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

[Tekken_Guy]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

[Rjjr77]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

[Tekken_Guy]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/franklarose/status/1734263417278509508?s=46&t=1L1DjzVkQV...

Safe D if nominated

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1734268378187997234

[Rjjr77]

Eh. She's not in danger. Her party is in danger when she retires, but she's a well-entrenched incumbent.

And even when she retires it’s not an auto-flip. Tim Ryan carried the seat last year. And if a commission is passed next year Democrats probably get a boost in a 2027 redraw by replacing western rurals with Wood.

IF they replace western rurals with wood Bob Latta walks through that seat

Latta probably just retires rather than run in a seat that's not Safe R.

Seat would lean R, and Latta would overperform at a high rate, in addition probably scares off what few Dem Challengers would be there (Mayor of Toledo maybe?)

Kaptur may honestly be convinced to run one final time to get rid of Latta.

She'd lose, erie would be out and most of the west would stay. Latta would beat her straight up