2023 New Zealand general election (14 October)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's behind the recent slump in Labour fortunes?

Multiple ministerial resignations due to scandal as the government was re-setting with a new PM can't have helped.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What's behind the recent slump in Labour fortunes?

Multiple ministerial resignations due to scandal as the government was re-setting with a new PM can't have helped.

National have also come out with a very middle of the road tax plan, which has lent credibility to their moderate image.
Meanwhile Labour’s policy announcements (free dental, ram-raiding) have seemed to generate a lot of cynicism, given they’ve had a majority for 3 years and didn’t do anything about them.

[Polkergeist]

It seems to me if National put ACT on the crossbench (even with a C&S arrangement), ACT could pick up disenchanted right-wing votes from National in a way that NZF could not given NZF history of being in Labour governments.

As NZF and Labour have ruled out a coalition together this time, National can afford to leave NZ First on the crossbench and govern with ACT.

Is this the case?

It will be interesting to see how Seymour adapts to being in government. Most minor parties have been smashed afterwards. He would need to make sure he can keep differentiating himself from National. One idea he put out was 'confidence without supply', so not guaranteeing his support for National's budgets. This is constitutional nonsense though because in a parliamentary system voting down a budget measure topples the government, so it must just be a weak bluff.

I understand the desire to distance from National, but the 'confidence without supply' idea sounds like importing US debt ceiling crises to the NZ parliamentary system.

If that's Seymour's idea of distancing it will do more harm than good. I agree though, its probably a bluff to get into cabinet.

[PSOL]

What's behind the recent slump in Labour fortunes?

Multiple ministerial resignations due to scandal as the government was re-setting with a new PM can't have helped.

National have also come out with a very middle of the road tax plan, which has lent credibility to their moderate image.
Meanwhile Labour’s policy announcements (free dental, ram-raiding) have seemed to generate a lot of cynicism, given they’ve had a majority for 3 years and didn’t do anything about them.

Labour hasn’t done anything, and not doing things may work in France as a popular course of action, but not in the Anglophone world.

[Pericles]

Poll shows tight three-way race for inner-city Wellington Central
Candidate vote:
Ibrahim Omer (Labour)-31%
Scott Sheeran (National)-28%
Tamatha Paul (Green)-26%

Party vote:
National-28%
Labour-28%
Green-27%

This seat is currently held by Finance Minister Grant Robertson who is standing list-only this time, another reason it would be a big coup for National or the Greens to win it. And these are huge swings from 2020, Robertson got 57% of the candidate vote and Labour got 43% of the party vote last time. National got just 14% of the party vote here in 2020 (30% to the Greens).

I expected the Greens to be competitive here this time, they have been making a big push for this electorate and neighbouring Rongotai. This looks pretty similar to the Green gain of Auckland Central in 2020, though I think Labour's candidate is stronger.

[Polkergeist]

Pericles,

Do you think Raf Manji has a chance to win Ilam for The Opportunities Party?

There was Curia poll a few weeks ago that had him a strong third (Nat 43 Lab 20 TOP 18)

[CumbrianLefty]

What's behind the recent slump in Labour fortunes?

Multiple ministerial resignations due to scandal as the government was re-setting with a new PM can't have helped.

National have also come out with a very middle of the road tax plan, which has lent credibility to their moderate image.
Meanwhile Labour’s policy announcements (free dental, ram-raiding) have seemed to generate a lot of cynicism, given they’ve had a majority for 3 years and didn’t do anything about them.

National's approach does seem to contrast a bit with the Australian right currently, yes.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What's behind the recent slump in Labour fortunes?

Multiple ministerial resignations due to scandal as the government was re-setting with a new PM can't have helped.

National have also come out with a very middle of the road tax plan, which has lent credibility to their moderate image.
Meanwhile Labour’s policy announcements (free dental, ram-raiding) have seemed to generate a lot of cynicism, given they’ve had a majority for 3 years and didn’t do anything about them.

National's approach does seem to contrast a bit with the Australian right currently, yes.

With the exception of NSW and Tasmanian Liberals, yes.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Pericles,

Do you think Raf Manji has a chance to win Ilam for The Opportunities Party?

There was Curia poll a few weeks ago that had him a strong third (Nat 43 Lab 20 TOP 18)

Not Pericles, but it’s hard to say imo. He is definitely a known figure there (he ran in 2017 and got second as an independent).

Personally, I expect him to get second, but electorate polls aren’t always the most accurate. Notably, looking at Wiki, there were two polls of Auckland Central in 2020, both of which had Swarbrick trailing when she would in fact win by 3%. I think that 2023 could be favorable for Manji though, given Labour’s weakness (2020 would’ve been a tilting at windmills). Another point in favor of Manji is that National isn’t doing as well as they were in 2017.

Basically, don’t bet large amounts of money on Ilam either way. I would not be absolutely shocked if Manji pulls it off and thus brings another TOP member or two with him though. For the record, I’d vote Manji, and just typing this all has actually made me more bullish on his chances. Still an uphill battle for him. I would vote for him if I lived in Ilam though (not being able to vote in NZ notwithstanding).

[Polkergeist]

Pericles,

Do you think Raf Manji has a chance to win Ilam for The Opportunities Party?

There was Curia poll a few weeks ago that had him a strong third (Nat 43 Lab 20 TOP 18)

Not Pericles, but it’s hard to say imo. He is definitely a known figure there (he ran in 2017 and got second as an independent).

Personally, I expect him to get second, but electorate polls aren’t always the most accurate. Notably, looking at Wiki, there were two polls of Auckland Central in 2020, both of which had Swarbrick trailing when she would in fact win by 3%. I think that 2023 could be favorable for Manji though, given Labour’s weakness (2020 would’ve been a tilting at windmills). Another point in favor of Manji is that National isn’t doing as well as they were in 2017.

Basically, don’t bet large amounts of money on Ilam either way. I would not be absolutely shocked if Manji pulls it off and thus brings another TOP member or two with him though. For the record, I’d vote Manji, and just typing this all has actually made me more bullish on his chances. Still an uphill battle for him. I would vote for him if I lived in Ilam though (not being able to vote in NZ notwithstanding).

You make a good point about seat polls not being the most accurate, but also campaign bandwagons can play a role especially minor party electorate challenges.

I can see left-of-centre voters voting tactically for Manji to get TOP into the parliament, slightly diluting a National-ACT bloc. However they would have to abandon the sitting Labour MP Sarah Pallet, which I'd assume would retain enough voters to stop Manji consolidating the left-of-centre segment.

That being said, Ilam and Fendalton before it was safe National territory, with Hamish Campbell polling at 43%, Manji will need to attract some National votes too if he was to win.

[Germany1994]

How would Labour doing if Jacinda Ardern would still be Prime Minister??

[S019]

How would Labour doing if Jacinda Ardern would still be Prime Minister??

Worse most likely, she was not doing well in the polls and many speculated that she stepped down in order to try and salvage Labour's position, which happened somewhat but now their polling numbers have just totally crashed.

[Germany1994]

How would Labour doing if Jacinda Ardern would still be Prime Minister??

Worse most likely, she was not doing well in the polls and many speculated that she stepped down in order to try and salvage Labour's position, which happened somewhat but now their polling numbers have just totally crashed.

What caused the crash in the polls anyway?? Was it the Corona bounce wearing off and then people noticing that the government didn´t deliver what it promised??

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, she would at least have avoided the issue of a reset under a New PM crashing immediately into a wall. Though she clearly really was burned out and exhausted at the time of her resignation and you don't want an election campaign headed by someone who would rather not be there.

[Pericles]

I don't think TOP has much of a chance. They don't have a natural voter base, their brand is being centrist policy wonks but that is only good for getting a few protest votes. Winning an electorate is difficult enough as is for a minor party, and they usually need to be a strong base of support and often rely on running the incumbent local MP. The Ilam polling mentioned shows National has a dominant lead in the seat.

It's really very difficult to tell how Jacinda would have done, especially since we haven't seen the full campaign and the results. I think it would be about the same-Hipkins isn't disliked personally but the government's record is. A few weeks ago, Labour had returned to where they were polling under Jacinda, Hipkins was still more personally popular than her. The continued slide is what usually happens to a losing party in an election campaign as the minor party vote increases, but again it's still early to try and conclude anything on this. It's possible her personal support was more entrenched, though she also could have trended downwards in her personal polling-especially since she likely would have taken a bigger hit from the cabinet scandals.

[Polkergeist]

I don't think TOP has much of a chance. They don't have a natural voter base, their brand is being centrist policy wonks but that is only good for getting a few protest votes. Winning an electorate is difficult enough as is for a minor party, and they usually need to be a strong base of support and often rely on running the incumbent local MP. The Ilam polling mentioned shows National has a dominant lead in the seat.

I get the impression that TOP has similarities to the Andrew Yang 2020 presidential platform?

[CumbrianLefty]

The point is surely that support for an incumbent party *tends* to increase in the run-up to a GE, not plummeting as is the case here?

[Pericles]

The point is surely that support for an incumbent party *tends* to increase in the run-up to a GE, not plummeting as is the case here?

My point is that it resembles what happened to the votes of opposition parties that were already losing like National in 2020 and Labour in 2011 and 2014. Clearly though it is not quite the same as an incumbent government, if it holds up it will be weird, but maybe a weak opposition is a useful parallel.

A lot of attention has been given to the low combined major party vote. This is more uncertain but the analysis could be different if National loses out on a lot of the swing that is coming from Labour.

[Pericles]

I don't think TOP has much of a chance. They don't have a natural voter base, their brand is being centrist policy wonks but that is only good for getting a few protest votes. Winning an electorate is difficult enough as is for a minor party, and they usually need to be a strong base of support and often rely on running the incumbent local MP. The Ilam polling mentioned shows National has a dominant lead in the seat.

I get the impression that TOP has similarities to the Andrew Yang 2020 presidential platform?

Oh yeah the UBI is still one of their policies.

[Pericles]

Luxon confirmed the obvious today by revealing that if Winston Peters holds the balance of power in the results, he will "pick up the phone".

Luxon saying this is needed to stop a 'Coalition of Chaos' looks dubious when these would be his coalition partners.

(tweets are from three years ago)

The latest Newshub poll suggested Luxon might need to 'pick up the phone'. National and ACT are on 47.9% (National 39.1%, ACT 8.8%), vs the combination of Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party on 42.9% (Labour-26.5% (!), Greens 14.2%, Maori 2.2%). NZ First was on 5.2%, just over the threshold. That means National and ACT are projected to get 60 seats, the left gets 54 (Labour's 33 seat caucus would mean it's virtually halved from 2020), and NZ First would take 6 seats. Another catastrophic finding for Labour is that Luxon now leads Hipkins 24%-19% as preferred Prime Minister.

This poll takes into account the first leader's debate, which looked like a draw. Early voting starts in a week and over half of the vote could be cast even before October 14. Labour's support may have finally flatlined (and at least the Greens are up), but the trend over this year-and the whole second term-has been absolutely brutal.



If there is interest, I can share my electorate ratings. The electorates only make a difference for the Maori Party's seat count because none of the other parties will rely on an electorate to get into Parliament, but it will affect the composition of their caucuses.

[Polkergeist]

If there is interest, I can share my electorate ratings. The electorates only make a difference for the Maori Party's seat count because none of the other parties will rely on an electorate to get into Parliament, but it will affect the composition of their caucuses.

Go for it Pericles. Always enjoy your tales of NZ politics.....

[Oryxslayer]

If there is interest, I can share my electorate ratings. The electorates only make a difference for the Maori Party's seat count because none of the other parties will rely on an electorate to get into Parliament, but it will affect the composition of their caucuses.

Go for it Pericles. Always enjoy your tales of NZ politics.....

I mean the electorate results overall should look something like the Key elections from a decade ago right? The gap between Labour and National seems individually comparable, same with when we add ideological allies together and compare those totals, since FPTP districts historically encourage relative top-two consolidation when everyone else is uncompetative.

Though yes, I will still add my voice in support of such an analysis. Cause local tendencies are not easily captured by national polls. Especially under a system where voting for the guy you like locally will be balanced out by the lists. 2020 is a good example of that actually, when it came to National constituencies.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Count me as a third vote for seeing your electorate ratings.

[Pericles]

I'll be using a three rating system of Safe, Lean and Tossup. These predictions are challenging because they are quite localised and there are only around 40,000 votes cast in each electorate.

Usually though people do vote the same way they do with the party vote, so we can get a good idea of the big picture from the nationwide swing. With National up by around 10% in the polling average, we can't expect Labour to win a majority of electorates again (and they have some very safe 70% Labour seats). With almost double the amount of incumbents to National, Labour should have some seats where they get saved on the candidate vote.

Firstly, for safe seats, all National electorate seats won in 2020 are safe except for Tamaki (I'll get to that one in a bit).
The safe Labour seats are Christchurch Central, Christchurch East, Dunedin, Kelston, Mana, Mangere, Manurewa, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, New Lynn, Palmerston North, Panmure Otahuhu, Remutaka, Taieri, Te Atatu, Wigram, Hauraki-Waikato, Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Tonga.

I would also rank 6 Labour-held seats as Safe National, due to them being narrowly won in traditionally National territory in 2020. Other than Jo Luxton in Rangitata, the Labour MPs also seem to be pretty generic. These are Ilam (as mentioned I don't see TOP winning this one), Northland, New Plymouth, Otaki, Rangitata, and Whangarei.

Epsom is Safe for ACT. I doubt Labour can gain Waiaraiki, I'll rate that as Safe for the Maori Party.

So far that's 1 ACT, 1 Maori, 19 Labour and 28 National.

The lean National seats tend to be in more competitive territory and some of the Labour MPs here (eg Kieran McAnulty) look like they are strong local candidates. These are East Coast (though a lot harder for Labour than it would have been with Kiri Allan here), Hamilton East, Northcote, Tukituki, Upper Harbour, and Wairarapa.

Hamilton West was Labour in 2020 but flipped National in a 2022 by-election, I'll rate it just short of Safe due to it being a bellwether seat.

The Lean Labour seats have huge majorities naturally, but I just want to flag them as possibilities in case it's a worst-case scenario for Labour. So these are Banks Peninsula, Nelson (despite being held by National for most recent elections that was due to Nick Smith's popularity in a Labour-leaning seat), Rongotai and Takanini (a seat only created in the last election).

Rongotai is an interesting one as a Labour vs Greens contest in Wellington. Labour's incumbent Paul Eagle is retiring (and moving to the Chatham Islands lol) after an embarassing mayoral campaign, though their new candidate Fleur Fitzsimons is a respected former councillor. The Greens are going hard at this one with their 4th ranked MP Julie Anne-Genter. This is more Labour-leaning than Wellington Central, Labour was on 52% to 23% Green in the party vote last time, and even in 2014 Labour got a higher vote than the Greens (but that was such a National landslide that National barely won the party vote).

I'd rate Auckland Central as Lean Green. Chloe Swarbrick is a high-profile and charismatic MP, and she should pick up a lot more Labour votes as the incumbent (and Labour isn't seriously contesting it imo). It is still a swingy seat despite fitting the profile of urban liberals, a poll yesterday had it as 26% Swarbrick to 24% for National, though the amount of undecideds was very high.

Te Tai Hauāuru is leaning towards being a Maori Party gain imo. It is being contested by their co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, who came close in 2020. This time, the Labour incumbent-Speaker Adrian Rurawhe-is running list only, so despite Labour's new candidate looking like a good pick that should boost Ngarewa-Packer too.

So that is still 1 ACT, 1 Green, 2 Maori, 23 Labour and 35 National.

So there are 10 tossup seats left.

Tamaki is a very interesting one. It is a National vs ACT contest. This is one of the richest seats in NZ in east Auckland, and is usually Safe National. However, the local MP Simon O'Connor is unpopular, mainly due to his vocally social conservative views. ACT is going after this by running their deputy leader Brooke Van Velden, who as a socially liberal young woman looks like a better fit for the seat. An electorate poll had O'Connor leading by only 2%. I could see this as an upset flip.

The Maori Party also have two other seats they can win. Ikaroa-Rawhiti is held by defecting Labour incumbent Meka Whaitiri, but the seat has been quite partisan for Labour in the past and a recent poll gave Labour's candidate a 33%-25% lead. So it will be interesting to see how popular Whaitiri is. There is also Tamaki Makaurau, taking in most of Auckland and held by Labour minister Peeni Henare. It has been competitive in the past and was close in 2020, but the Maori Party's candidate John Tamihere was strong that time.

As mentioned, Wellington Central is a three way race, though I'd say it's most likely going to be Labour or the Greens. The 30% party vote for the Greens in 2020 sets them up very well. Labour's Ibrahim Omer has a great backstory as an Eritrean refugee who started out as a cleaner in NZ, but the Green candidate Tamatha Paul is a popular 26-year old councillor. My guess is that Omer misses out due to his party and so the Greens get a second electorate.

That leaves six Labour vs National tossups. Hutt South is a very interesting one, since 2017 it has been very reflective of the nation demographically and politically, though with a slight Labour lean. It has Police Minister Ginny Andersen as Labour's incumbent vs National's third ranked MP Chris Bishop, so both are strong candidates who are active in their community. Ohariu has usually been a swing seat (held by Peter Dunne for 33 years), in Wellington's northern and well-off suburbs. It did have an even bigger Labour margin than the nation in 2020, and it has a lot of public servants who might be worried about National and ACT talking about firing thousands of 'bureaucrats'. National has a strong candidate with their Finance spokesperson Nicola Willis, while Labour's incumbent Greg O'Connor is just a backbencher.

Napier, Whanganui, and West Coast-Tasman are similar as more rural seats. West Coast has only gone for National in 2008 but oddly had a smaller swing to Labour in 2020 than most seats, it's held by Agriculture Minister Damien O'Connor. Maungakiekie is a swing seat in Auckland, it is very diverse and it's held by minister Priyanca Radhakrishnan. National's candidate seems to be unknown (all I've heard about him is that he was very opposed to civil unions 20 years ago).

So Labour are probably tracking for just under 30 electorates, and so on their current party vote that would mean around 10 list MPs. That means the most senior list MPs should be fine, but newer ministers like McAnulty and Andersen could in the worst-case be in trouble. Clearly though it would mean the party loses some talent and is left with a weaker caucus.

[Pericles]

Chris Hipkins tests positive for Covid

Bad luck for him, he'll be isolating for the next few days.