Texas will be the tipping point state in 2024 POTUS election.

[°Leprechaun]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state

[Roll Roons]

Unlikely. I suspect it'll be one of AZ, PA or WI.

[°Leprechaun]

Unlikely. I suspect it'll be one of AZ, PA or WI.

I agree

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Not a chance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol people are so anxious wait for Emerson polls they will poll next year they are still doing primary polls

We know it's a 303 map Trump has low approvals in IL, CA, NY and NJ so how in the world is he gonna win WI, MI and PA, VA, AZ, GA, CO and NV we all know he wants to pardon the insurrection but anything is possible with Maga R on the ballot the tsunami won't happen until Oct 24 like it always does 19 days out before the Eday

[dw93]

Unlikely. I suspect it'll be one of AZ, PA or WI.

I think it'll be AZ or WI. If Biden is losing PA he's already lost the election IMHO.

[Gracile]

Definitely not. Even if it is closer, TX is decidedly to the right of the nation.

[DS0816]

Election 2024 scenarios, for U.S. President, with the tipping-point state (in bold):

• DEMOCRATIC [Hold] •
20/21 Michigan/Nevada — Cumulative 246 electoral votes
22 Pennsylvania — 266
23 Wisconsin — 276
24 Arizona — 287
25 Georgia — 303
26 North Carolina (Pickup) — 319

• REPUBLICAN [Pickup] •
25 North Carolina — Cumulative 235 electoral votes
26 Wisconsin (Pickup) — 245
27 Pennsylvania (Pickup) — 264
28 Michigan (Pickup) — 279
29 New Hampshire (Pickup) — 283
30 Minnesota (Pickup) — 293

[Thank you for being a friend...]

I had this as a "hot take" (I said it would be the closest state), but that was just throwing something harder to believe out there.  I don't think TX is close to really being a reliable swing state, maybe one day but not today.  I'd say its closer to Safe R than Tossup (Likely R sounds right).

[SnowLabrador]

No, but it could be in the Senate races.

[Skill and Chance]

This would shock me.  Texas is more likely to be Trump +8 or DeSantis +12 while they are still losing the EC than it is to be the deciding state.

[Mr. Smith]

Very unlikely.

[S019]

This requires TX to vote to the left of at least some of GA/AZ/PA, and possibly all three. I could see this happening in a later election, maybe 2032, but almost certainly not in 2024. (I would say definitely but stranger things have happened) I suspect AZ or PA will end up the tipping point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Try next yr when we get polls we aren't gonna get anywhere when people keep assuming that certain states are Lean R

All we get is GE polls one has Biden leading by 2 and another day he is leading by 5/10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This requires TX to vote to the left of at least some of GA/AZ/PA, and possibly all three. I could see this happening in a later election, maybe 2032, but almost certainly not in 2024. (I would say definitely but stranger things have happened) I suspect AZ or PA will end up the tipping point.

The only poll that came out was a CW  that had Biden close to 3 pts down in TX

Carter won TX in 1976 and it was very close in 1976 stop being a Doomer you had Fetterman losing last time it was wrong

[S019]

This requires TX to vote to the left of at least some of GA/AZ/PA, and possibly all three. I could see this happening in a later election, maybe 2032, but almost certainly not in 2024. (I would say definitely but stranger things have happened) I suspect AZ or PA will end up the tipping point.

The only poll that came out was a CW  that had Biden close to 3 pts down in TX

Carter won TX in 1976 and it was very close in 1976 stop being a Doomer you had Fetterman losing last time it was wrong

Biden can win TX, though I'd say it's Lean R. Him winning TX while he loses AZ or PA is very hard to see, I suppose it's possible if another WWC realignment happens at the same time as massive inroads into suburban areas, but again I think it's a cycle or two too early for this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well the ABC poll came out showing Biden back underwater and Gas prices have spikes and TX is an oil and gas state and so is FL, TX, LA and AK so it's hard to imagine TX flipping without FL anyways

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very unlikely.

[TwinGeeks99]

No way, although for what it's worth it has been moving closer and closer in that direction. Assuming a universal swing, in 2016 Texas would have brought Clinton to 406 electoral votes, while in 2020 it would have brought Biden to 388 electoral votes. In 2024 it is largely considered to be the second most likely Democratic flip from 2020 behind North Carolina, and would bring Biden to 359 electoral votes if won.