Do any WWC counties that swung right in 2020 swing towards Biden in 2024?

[Radicalneo]

Thoughts

[Greedo punched first]

Probably at least one. Incumbency advantage helps.

[Radicalneo]

Probably at least one. Incumbency advantage helps.

Any guesses?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Several will in New England, WI, MI etc. Non college/wcw don't like being told what is "morally" right and that they are bad people if they don't believe X(i.e., that they are "murderers" because they don't oppose abortion at x number of weeks)

[Galeel]

There's a lot of those, so certainly some will swing left

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

College counties upset at Dobbs will swing left

[oldtimer]

If the polls are to be believed right now No.

I've restarted counting the demographic subsamples, and Biden is doing a bit worse vs Trump that when I stopped it at the midterms.

Compared with the polling average in 2020, Biden is down 11 and Trump up by 5 in than demo.

Even if I account for shy Biden voters, Trump's gain of 5 is now too large to be just polling error and it's been growing a bit over time.

[seskoog]

It’s possible, especially if the county had a large third party share in 2016

[Vosem]

Yes, even in a Republican landslide. There's too many of them for that not to be the case just through sheer random chance.

[DaleCooper]

Yes, and I am actually quite happy to see that many Republicans seem to be falling into a very similar trap that Democrats did in 2020. They're assuming that there isn't a single voter Trump won last time that he could lose in 2024. I remember threads similar to this like, "Will Trump win a single Hillary 2016 county?" I get that Atlas isn't falling for it quite so much this time but the Republican establishment and propaganda machine seems to be. Their attitude going into 2022 was that every single state that trended Republican in 2020 would be an easy win and every single swing state that trended Democratic in 2020 would also be an easy win because Republicans barely lost them. They're not even attempting to persuade anybody and that's going to be a big advantage for Democrats next year.