Rate Mahoning County, Ohio

[Woody]

Clinton 16' - Trump 20' county.

J.D. Vance also surprisingly won here, even outperformed Trump.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did you mean to have two Lean R options?

[Vosem]

Likely R verging on Safe, given that Vance won here (against a favorite son who was doing pretty well statewide!) even though he ran behind both Trump '16 and Trump '20. DeWine and Yost both did better here than statewide. I think it's probably still part of the minimal Democratic victory map in Ohio, but I wouldn't be confident of that.

Mahoning is less populist than you think -- for instance Portman actually ran far ahead of Trump there, and it's long had a decently fiscon local GOP (much like West Virginia, actually, in a lot of respects); Mitt Romney won here pretty solidly in the 2012 Republican primary. I don't think DeSantis would really have any trouble here either.

[Spectator]

Obviously Safe R. Ryan couldn’t even win it despite representing it for decades.

[Woody]

Did you mean to have two Lean R options?

Nope.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Likely R

[Suburbia]

Safe R

[Roronoa D. Law]

Safe R, maybe Lorain can come back if things go Biden way but Mahoning is just out of the question.

[morgieb]

If Tim Ryan of all people couldn't win here, it probably says a lot about where it's going.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D with Brown, newsflash OH isn't staying red forever it's a swing state it's not indiana with 15 percent blk CVG, CMH and CLEV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R

No

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Still GOP. BUT Ohio will still swing and Trend D in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course it will there isn't a Gov race with DeWine on the ballot

[NewYorkExpress]

Everything except Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton are Safe GOP no matter who the nominees are.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everything except Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton are Safe GOP no matter who the nominees are.

We won't know until we get a poll but Presley is within 3 and Peltola is leading Sullivan Red states aren't safe R anymore

As long as Trump is on the ballot, user must realize this isn't s typical Eday since Nov 20 Trump has J7 and users still think it's a typical Eday that's why Gallup has Biden at 40 per ent and Rassy has Biden at 50

[Holmes]

Oh it's for sure staying Republican. It would be pretty symbolic to see Delaware county going for Democratic as well but I think that one needs a little more time in the oven.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oh it's for sure staying Republican. It would be pretty symbolic to see Delaware county going for Democratic as well but I think that one needs a little more time in the oven.

Lol we are giving our opinion your opinion is not favr Ryan would have won if DeWine wasn't on the ballot DeWine outpolled Vance by 20 and there was a DeSantis IAN bump do you know our maps are PRED not ratings maps the ratings had 53 Rs and 240 RH which was wrong and Presley isn't down 12 he's down by three three and Peltola and Beshesr and Laura Kelly won that proves we can win red states it's not a white man Eday it's 15 percent blk and 15 Arab Spectator, Sir Muhammad certainly understands that that's why Spectato says TX can flip, you are wron


Hate to say it to another red avatar but we aren't Ds we aren't officeholders we are Secularism and Blue avatars aren't Rs they are Conserv this was said on Sean Hannity the only thing he is correct

It's called wave insurance and Cook and Sabato don't add it until Oct of 24 just like they did Oct 2008 and Oct 2012 after Sandy and  Oct 2018
 
until then they are gonna rate it 303 the Nate Silver model

Tell that to Kay Hagen whom won an upset in 2008 it was a Great Recession just like 3/17/20

[Galeel]

Everything except Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton are Safe GOP no matter who the nominees are.

Lucas county voted for Biden by 17 points in 2020, among several others that are very likely to go to him again.

[DS0816]

It is a key example with explaining why Ohio has ended its bellwether streak—it voted for all presidential winners, over 14 consecutive cycles, from 1964–2016—and I think there is no question to how it will perform going forward.

In 2020, when Ohio broke its bellwether streak, it was the Democrats’s No. 29 best-performed state. (The party carried 25 states.) I suspect Ohio (along with likewise realigned-to-the-GOP Florida and Iowa) will move to slotting between Nos. 31 to 35 for future Democrats.

This is important to note because, since 1992, the average number of states carried by presidential winners have been 29. Winning Republicans have averaged 30 carried states. Winning Democrats have averaged 28 carried states.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I'm not quite ready to call it Safe R considering Clinton won it but I think it would be as close to safe R as it can while remaining in the likely R category.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Mahoning is less populist than you think -- for instance Portman actually ran far ahead of Trump there, and it's long had a decently fiscon local GOP (much like West Virginia, actually, in a lot of respects); Mitt Romney won here pretty solidly in the 2012 Republican primary. I don't think DeSantis would really have any trouble here either.

I can see it possibly being a few decades behind WV assuming that Youngstown continues to decline in population but most of the populists weren't involved in the GOP until the Trump years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mahoning is less populist than you think -- for instance Portman actually ran far ahead of Trump there, and it's long had a decently fiscon local GOP (much like West Virginia, actually, in a lot of respects); Mitt Romney won here pretty solidly in the 2012 Republican primary. I don't think DeSantis would really have any trouble here either.

I can see it possibly being a few decades behind WV assuming that Youngstown continues to decline in population but most of the populists weren't involved in the GOP until the Trump years.

Let's wait til an Emerson poll comes out your R nut predictions were wrong last time.
DeWine was on the ballot and Vance barely won lol you had Fetterman losing

Biden isn't gonna be ahead in red states until there is blue wave which happens at the end of an Eday cycle Rs got an IAN bump at the end of the Eday cycle Vance and Johnson were losing especially Johnson

Presley is narrowing the gap on Reeves it's not 11 but 3  and Brown has always over performed in OH


As I keep saying this we have a better chance at a Filibuster proof Trifecta with Trump and J6 than DeSantis it's not a 20 Eday cycle it's a J6 Eday cycle

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R. The only Ohio county that Biden might be able to flip will be Lorain, as others have said.