Does RFK Jr. win the Arkansas Democratic Primary?

[WalterWhite]

Arkansas, in recent years, has not been too favorable for establishment Democrats. The last time Arkansas was competitive on the presidential level was 2004. Arkansas was Barack Obama's worst state in 2012.

RFK Jr. is certainly not winning the nomination, but with how high he is polling, he could certainly win a few states. Could Arkansas be one of these?

[WalterWhite]

I personally doubt it because Democratic voters will likely move away from RFK Jr. once they learn about his anti-vax viewpoints.

[Pres Mike]

No, Obama got 58% in the primary with super low turnout. The folks who voted John Wolfe Jr are no longer in the Democratic Party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is gonna vote in the primary the only ones that turn out are Boomers even the R primary is a done deal I won't even vote in the primary

There isn't a Senate race in the IL primary like CA so why waste time to vote
RFK time was 2016/20 before the antivaxx vote

[TDAS04]

No. Biden handily won the Arkansas primary last time.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

He'll likely win 3% of the vote

[Skill and Chance]

No.  They have an open primary and a large black population.  If RFK (or some other protest candidate) is going to win somewhere, it would be a less diverse ancestral Dem but now super R state with a closed primary.  WV, KY, and OK (the latter is open to independents, but OK independents are probably very anti-establishment types) all seem like better candidates.

[The Mikado]

No. There's way way fewer conservadems still registered than there once were. A lot of people changed their registration in the Trump years to reflect their current party affiliation.

Also I have to say, right now RFK Jr is just a name. Over the next eight months as people see and hear him I expect some opinions to change.

Emphasis on hear. I know many of you guys know about his speech impediment but it's way way worse if you listen to him for an extended period of time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRT8io6H0uo

Do yourself a favor and watch this interview. People hear that name and they expect this guy's uncle or dad, two of the greatest orators in American history. The reality's gonna hit like a wall of bricks when this guy really gets out there.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think so. RFK is bound to win a few states and AR has a lot of ancestral dems.

[Zedonathin2020]

Maybe he could’ve back in 2012 when the base he’s trying to target was still alive, but nowadays he doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell at winning West Virginia let alone somewhere like Arkansas

[Sir Mohamed]

I'd be surprised for him to win any primaries other than a few small counties in WV and KY. AR's black population is giving Biden solid numbers, even more so than in 2020.

I dunno why we're talking this anti-vaxxer weirdo up so much? Just because of his last time? Stop pretending he's a major candidate.

[NewYorkExpress]

No, but there's a decent chance he wins New Hampshire.

[Sir Mohamed]

No, but there's a decent chance he wins New Hampshire.

lol

[TheTide]

No. There's way way fewer conservadems still registered than there once were. A lot of people changed their registration in the Trump years to reflect their current party affiliation.

Also I have to say, right now RFK Jr is just a name. Over the next eight months as people see and hear him I expect some opinions to change.

Emphasis on hear. I know many of you guys know about his speech impediment but it's way way worse if you listen to him for an extended period of time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRT8io6H0uo

Do yourself a favor and watch this interview. People hear that name and they expect this guy's uncle or dad, two of the greatest orators in American history. The reality's gonna hit like a wall of bricks when this guy really gets out there.

It's spasmodic dysphonia, which is probably more than a mere 'impediment'. Susan Collins also has a (milder) form of it. Given how rare it is, it's quite something that two current nationally known political figures have it.

[West_Midlander]

Would be cool if he won at least one state, not for his own sake, but because it would be politically/electorally notable, but it would never ever happen.

[Zedonathin2020]

No, but there's a decent chance he wins New Hampshire.

Williamson wins New Hampshire before that wacko.

[AltWorlder]

I don’t know if he’ll win it, but I don’t think his anti-vax stances will offset his name brand or simply his presence as an alternative. He’s definitely going to get more votes than John Wolfe, Jr. did in 2012, for example.

[Skill and Chance]

This feels a bit too much like Clinton supporters in 2015 dismissing Bernie as a fringe candidate who might get 10%.

That having been said, the real risk isn't RFK but Newsom or someone similar seeing enough of these polls they decide it's now or never.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I realize you guys are bored, but please find something better to do than pretend the perennial, novelty and protest-vote candidates have an actual chance.

[AltWorlder]

perennial

This is the first time he's actually running