When will the next Democrat be able to win all Southern states?

[WalterWhite]

The South, as defined by the US Census Bureau, is Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Washington DC, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The last Democrat who could win all these states was Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Will ANY Democrat be able to win all of these states in the future? If so, how far into the future must we look?

[progressive85]

Maybe the 22nd century.  The 2150s.  Probably after a really good re-election campaign.

[Vosem]

If you insist on the inclusion of DC, then no campaign has ever carried every polity in this region. (And even if you don't insist on the inclusion of DC, adding the Mid-Atlantic states -- MD, DE, and VA, which have often differed substantially from the rest of the South* -- makes this essentially ask the question "what's the next campaign that will win basically everywhere". IDK, man, not for a while; interestingly, the fact that we haven't had a national double-digit victory since 1984 means we're in the longest streak without these in American history).

*And TN, which differed substantially from the rest of the South in the old Democrat/Whig days.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It wouldn't be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

[WalterWhite]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

Yeah but I'm saying Republicans will get over 60% of the vote in the state, which hasn't happened in the past several presidential elections

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

Yeah but I'm saying Republicans will get over 60% of the vote in the state, which hasn't happened in the past several presidential elections

Republicans did very well in the South in 2022.  My theory is that the focus on abortion didn't help Democrats as much in the South as in other parts of the country due to the increased religiosity of the region (including many black Democrats who are at least personally uncomfortable with abortion).

[Alben Barkley]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

Yeah but I'm saying Republicans will get over 60% of the vote in the state, which hasn't happened in the past several presidential elections

Republicans did very well in the South in 2022.  My theory is that the focus on abortion didn't help Democrats as much in the South as in other parts of the country due to the increased religiosity of the region (including many black Democrats who are at least personally uncomfortable with abortion).

But abortion restrictions went down in Kentucky even as Rand Paul easily won, and I'm sure such restrictions would have gone down in flames in Florida too even as Ron DeSantis easily won. So I think it's more complicated than that.

Also Republicans didn't do so hot in the Georgia senate race at least. Yes they had an atrocious candidate, but there was a LOT of ticket-splitting, which in recent history had been very unusual for Georgia and other Deep South states.

Also a majority of black evangelical protestants say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. It's wrong to just assume they would be "uncomfortable" with it simply because white evangelical protestants are.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

Yeah but I'm saying Republicans will get over 60% of the vote in the state, which hasn't happened in the past several presidential elections

Republicans did very well in the South in 2022.  My theory is that the focus on abortion didn't help Democrats as much in the South as in other parts of the country due to the increased religiosity of the region (including many black Democrats who are at least personally uncomfortable with abortion).

But abortion restrictions went down in Kentucky even as Rand Paul easily won, and I'm sure such restrictions would have gone down in flames in Florida too even as Ron DeSantis easily won. So I think it's more complicated than that.

Also Republicans didn't do so hot in the Georgia senate race at least. Yes they had an atrocious candidate, but there was a LOT of ticket-splitting, which in recent history had been very unusual for Georgia and other Deep South states.

Also a majority of black evangelical protestants say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. It's wrong to just assume they would be "uncomfortable" with it simply because white evangelical protestants are.

If you think black EVANGELICAL protestants actually believe abortion should be legal in most cases(let alone all), I don't know what to tell you

[WalterWhite]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

Yeah but I'm saying Republicans will get over 60% of the vote in the state, which hasn't happened in the past several presidential elections

Republicans did very well in the South in 2022.  My theory is that the focus on abortion didn't help Democrats as much in the South as in other parts of the country due to the increased religiosity of the region (including many black Democrats who are at least personally uncomfortable with abortion).

But abortion restrictions went down in Kentucky even as Rand Paul easily won, and I'm sure such restrictions would have gone down in flames in Florida too even as Ron DeSantis easily won. So I think it's more complicated than that.

Also Republicans didn't do so hot in the Georgia senate race at least. Yes they had an atrocious candidate, but there was a LOT of ticket-splitting, which in recent history had been very unusual for Georgia and other Deep South states.

Also a majority of black evangelical protestants say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. It's wrong to just assume they would be "uncomfortable" with it simply because white evangelical protestants are.

If you think black EVANGELICAL protestants actually believe abortion should be legal in most cases(let alone all), I don't know what to tell you

I do not have data for African-American Evangelicals, but I can tell you that African-Americas as a whole are vehemently pro-choice. This trend holds across every single state in the country.

Source: https://civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&race=Black%20or%20African-American&map=true

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

Yeah but I'm saying Republicans will get over 60% of the vote in the state, which hasn't happened in the past several presidential elections

Republicans did very well in the South in 2022.  My theory is that the focus on abortion didn't help Democrats as much in the South as in other parts of the country due to the increased religiosity of the region (including many black Democrats who are at least personally uncomfortable with abortion).

But abortion restrictions went down in Kentucky even as Rand Paul easily won, and I'm sure such restrictions would have gone down in flames in Florida too even as Ron DeSantis easily won. So I think it's more complicated than that.

Also Republicans didn't do so hot in the Georgia senate race at least. Yes they had an atrocious candidate, but there was a LOT of ticket-splitting, which in recent history had been very unusual for Georgia and other Deep South states.

Also a majority of black evangelical protestants say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. It's wrong to just assume they would be "uncomfortable" with it simply because white evangelical protestants are.

If you think black EVANGELICAL protestants actually believe abortion should be legal in most cases(let alone all), I don't know what to tell you

I do not have data for African-American Evangelicals, but I can tell you that African-Americas as a whole are vehemently pro-choice. This trend holds across every single state in the country.

Source: https://civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&race=Black%20or%20African-American&map=true

But 59 %(Adding all and most together) is a whole lot less than the amount that vote democratic currently.

[RINO Tom]

It is SO much more likely that we have another major realignment (or a situation like Carter 1976) before every single Southern state experiences the types of current demographic trends that happen to benefit Democrats in 2023 for several decades in a row.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Of course. When that happens is far more uncertain, though.

[Alben Barkley]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

Yeah but I'm saying Republicans will get over 60% of the vote in the state, which hasn't happened in the past several presidential elections

Republicans did very well in the South in 2022.  My theory is that the focus on abortion didn't help Democrats as much in the South as in other parts of the country due to the increased religiosity of the region (including many black Democrats who are at least personally uncomfortable with abortion).

But abortion restrictions went down in Kentucky even as Rand Paul easily won, and I'm sure such restrictions would have gone down in flames in Florida too even as Ron DeSantis easily won. So I think it's more complicated than that.

Also Republicans didn't do so hot in the Georgia senate race at least. Yes they had an atrocious candidate, but there was a LOT of ticket-splitting, which in recent history had been very unusual for Georgia and other Deep South states.

Also a majority of black evangelical protestants say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. It's wrong to just assume they would be "uncomfortable" with it simply because white evangelical protestants are.

If you think black EVANGELICAL protestants actually believe abortion should be legal in most cases(let alone all), I don't know what to tell you

And I don't know what to tell YOU if you don't. I'm going off hard data from Pew Research Center here. I'm sorry but facts don't care about your feelings.

[Alben Barkley]

Not in 2024. The south will be the most republican trending region in the country. It would be surprising to me if Rs crossed 60 in LA, MS

A Democrat is not winning Mississippi in 2024? What a shocker!

Yeah but I'm saying Republicans will get over 60% of the vote in the state, which hasn't happened in the past several presidential elections

Republicans did very well in the South in 2022.  My theory is that the focus on abortion didn't help Democrats as much in the South as in other parts of the country due to the increased religiosity of the region (including many black Democrats who are at least personally uncomfortable with abortion).

But abortion restrictions went down in Kentucky even as Rand Paul easily won, and I'm sure such restrictions would have gone down in flames in Florida too even as Ron DeSantis easily won. So I think it's more complicated than that.

Also Republicans didn't do so hot in the Georgia senate race at least. Yes they had an atrocious candidate, but there was a LOT of ticket-splitting, which in recent history had been very unusual for Georgia and other Deep South states.

Also a majority of black evangelical protestants say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. It's wrong to just assume they would be "uncomfortable" with it simply because white evangelical protestants are.

If you think black EVANGELICAL protestants actually believe abortion should be legal in most cases(let alone all), I don't know what to tell you

I do not have data for African-American Evangelicals, but I can tell you that African-Americas as a whole are vehemently pro-choice. This trend holds across every single state in the country.

Source: https://civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&race=Black%20or%20African-American&map=true

But 59 %(Adding all and most together) is a whole lot less than the amount that vote democratic currently.

But note that African-Americans in many of the Deep South states (the subject of this thread) such as Georgia are far more pro-choice than Americans are as a whole -- all or most in GA, for example, adds up to 85%.

I think you need to concede that you were wrong here and cut your losses. It's honestly pathetic and cringeworthy to see someone who has clearly been bested in a debate cling to his falsehoods and defend them with his life when it would be far more dignified and respectable to simply admit you were mistaken.

Oh also, it appears the topline number is for Americans as a whole, as it's only filtered by race BELOW that. That explains why OVERWHELMINGLY African-Americans support abortion rights in every single state, far above what an average of 59% would suggest. Again that's ALL Americans; the number is clearly much higher for African-Americans.

Once again, facts do NOT care about your feelings. I frankly am tired of this frankly racist assumption that black Christians feel or should feel the same way about abortion as other Christians. They simply do NOT and the evidence for that is OVERWHELMING, in the South and everywhere else.

Indeed, unfiltering the number on Civiqs leads to a total of 84% thinking abortion should be legal in all or most cases. That's pretty close to how many African-Americans vote Democratic. Your theory that the number is much lower is clearly completely and totally wrong.

[Alben Barkley]

Perhaps some of this misunderstanding comes from a misunderstanding of what "evangelical protestant" means. Hopefully everyone here knows the basics of what a "protestant" is at least. "Evangelical" literally means to "evangelize" or spread the word/Gospel with others, and most Christians do value this, hence why you have the mainline (NOT "evangelical") Evangelical Lutheran Church in America and even some Catholics "evangelizing."

But in the political/religious context, "evangelical" means you come from a particular Protestant tradition going back to the Puritans and the Quakers and the like. This tradition is usually focused more on the inerrancy of the Bible and "low church" services as opposed to the "high church" with the incense and robes and the like you see in Catholic churches. It's also historically been focused more on "revivals" and "spreading the word," hence why it's called "evangelical;" that "evangelizing" is arguably more of an emphasis in this tradition than others.

In any case, both historically black protestant churches AND historically white protestant churches like the Southern Baptists share this "evangelical" lineage and background. That does NOT mean, however, they agree on much of anything theologically, let alone politically, today.

So, it is totally possible and indeed is the factual case that most black "evangelicals" are pro-choice even as the opposite is true for most white "evangelicals." It really is not rocket science here, folks. All it takes is a little bit of knowledge of what the word "evangelical" really means and where it comes from, rather than a painfully smug and incorrect kneejerk reaction to the word assuming incorrectly it is synonymous with "conservative." It is totally possible to be a liberal evangelical Christian, black or white, just as it is possible to be a conservative non-evangelical Christian of any color. It is completely wrong to tie all these disparate concepts together!

[DS0816]

I do not think this will happen during the remainder of the life of every forum member who is on this site…and this, of course, includes the original poster, WalterWhite.

[Ragnaroni]

Not for a LOOOOOOONG time.

[Xing]

All of them? Not anytime soon, that’s for sure.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And I really struggle to see how you can argue Georgia is not extremely viable for the GOP in the next election. It's very apparent that while Republicans are losing the culture wars in the Midwest, they aren't in the South, including Georgia. While Brian Kemp and Brad Raffersperger were certainly stronger than generic R and effectively cultivated a bipartisan image, the fact remains that the only statewide republican that lost was one of the worst candidates running not just out of the people running for senate, but arguably out of anyone running for office period in 2022. Trump is clearly the only republican that is a likely nominee at this point who is capable of losing Georgia at this point and despite how he is polling now against DeSantis(who I might add has not announced yet), I'd argue that with all his legal scandals and a challenger who I think will run a really aggressive campaign,  there is a good chance the nominee will not be Trump. So I think k it's safe to say Georgia is a very potential flip for the GOP in 2024

[RINO Tom]

And I really struggle to see how you can argue Georgia is not extremely viable for the GOP in the next election. It's very apparent that while Republicans are losing the culture wars in the Midwest, they aren't in the South, including Georgia. While Brian Kemp and Brad Raffersperger were certainly stronger than generic R and effectively cultivated a bipartisan image, the fact remains that the only statewide republican that lost was one of the worst candidates running not just out of the people running for senate, but arguably out of anyone running for office period in 2022. Trump is clearly the only republican that is a likely nominee at this point who is capable of losing Georgia at this point and despite how he is polling now against DeSantis(who I might add has not announced yet), I'd argue that with all his legal scandals and a challenger who I think will run a really aggressive campaign,  there is a good chance the nominee will not be Trump. So I think k it's safe to say Georgia is a very potential flip for the GOP in 2024

It's also worth noting that the following groups who would deliver Georgia to the Democrats (and, TBF, did in these examples) sort of "stagnated" their support for them ... I think it at least points to the state being competitive for a while, not really like the Virginia shift but more like the North Carolina shift:

ACTUAL RESULTS
Georgia Overall
2020: 49.5% DEM, 49.2% GOP
2022 GOV: 53.4% GOP, 45.9% DEM
2022 SEN: 49.4% DEM, 48.6% GOP (Used first round, as that is what matched the exit polls)

EXIT POLLS
Suburbs
2020: 53% DEM, 46% GOP (Only gave Atlanta suburbs)

2022 GOV: 53% GOP, 46% DEM
2022 SEN: 49% GOP, 48% DEM

Age 30-44
2020: 54% DEM, 44% GOP

2022 GOV: 53% DEM, 45% GOP
2022 SEN: 56% DEM, 41% GOP

White College Graduates
2020: 55% GOP, 44% DEM

2022 GOV: 63% GOP, 36% DEM
2022 SEN: 58% GOP, 40% DEM

White FEMALE College Graduates
2020: 55% GOP, 43% DEM

2022 GOV: 60% GOP, 39% DEM
2022 SEN: 54% GOP, 44% DEM

I lack the knowledge of Georgia's geography and its local politics to start looking into more specific results than this, and I definitely lack the time today to start looking at trends and whatnot.  However, it definitely appears clear that Georgia's "rapid change" might not be progressing past a certain point, at least not yet.  Long-term demographic trends seem to favor Democrats, especially if younger, presumably left-leaning transplants keep moving to the Atlanta area (in addition to the obviously helpful GOP decline in suburban areas).  However, with a state like Virginia, you seemed to have this "no going back" moment, with quite a few voters becoming reliable Democrats at all levels in NOVA (for the most part, anyway).  I am not getting that vibe from Georgia, but obviously 2024 will be telling.

[WalterWhite]

And I really struggle to see how you can argue Georgia is not extremely viable for the GOP in the next election. It's very apparent that while Republicans are losing the culture wars in the Midwest, they aren't in the South, including Georgia. While Brian Kemp and Brad Raffersperger were certainly stronger than generic R and effectively cultivated a bipartisan image, the fact remains that the only statewide republican that lost was one of the worst candidates running not just out of the people running for senate, but arguably out of anyone running for office period in 2022. Trump is clearly the only republican that is a likely nominee at this point who is capable of losing Georgia at this point and despite how he is polling now against DeSantis(who I might add has not announced yet), I'd argue that with all his legal scandals and a challenger who I think will run a really aggressive campaign,  there is a good chance the nominee will not be Trump. So I think k it's safe to say Georgia is a very potential flip for the GOP in 2024

Republicans are losing on culture war issues nationally. According to Civiqs polling, Georgia is a pro-choice state. With abortion being the biggest culture war issue currently, culture war issues are HELPING Democrats even in Deep Southern states, such as Georgia.

Going back to the topic of this thread, though, culture war issues are helping Republicans in the most conservative states, such as Alabama and Mississippi; many of these states are Southern states. A Democrat who can win every Southern states would most likely have to be a conservative Democrat with strong Southern appeal.

[DS0816]

And I really struggle to see how you can argue Georgia is not extremely viable for the GOP in the next election. It's very apparent that while Republicans are losing the culture wars in the Midwest, they aren't in the South, including Georgia. While Brian Kemp and Brad Raffersperger were certainly stronger than generic R and effectively cultivated a bipartisan image, the fact remains that the only statewide republican that lost was one of the worst candidates running not just out of the people running for senate, but arguably out of anyone running for office period in 2022. Trump is clearly the only republican that is a likely nominee at this point who is capable of losing Georgia at this point and despite how he is polling now against DeSantis(who I might add has not announced yet), I'd argue that with all his legal scandals and a challenger who I think will run a really aggressive campaign,  there is a good chance the nominee will not be Trump. So I think k it's safe to say Georgia is a very potential flip for the GOP in 2024

I address this here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566

[100% pro-life no matter what]

And I really struggle to see how you can argue Georgia is not extremely viable for the GOP in the next election. It's very apparent that while Republicans are losing the culture wars in the Midwest, they aren't in the South, including Georgia. While Brian Kemp and Brad Raffersperger were certainly stronger than generic R and effectively cultivated a bipartisan image, the fact remains that the only statewide republican that lost was one of the worst candidates running not just out of the people running for senate, but arguably out of anyone running for office period in 2022. Trump is clearly the only republican that is a likely nominee at this point who is capable of losing Georgia at this point and despite how he is polling now against DeSantis(who I might add has not announced yet), I'd argue that with all his legal scandals and a challenger who I think will run a really aggressive campaign,  there is a good chance the nominee will not be Trump. So I think k it's safe to say Georgia is a very potential flip for the GOP in 2024

Republicans are losing on culture war issues nationally. According to Civiqs polling, Georgia is a pro-choice state. With abortion being the biggest culture war issue currently, culture war issues are HELPING Democrats even in Deep Southern states, such as Georgia.

Going back to the topic of this thread, though, culture war issues are helping Republicans in the most conservative states, such as Alabama and Mississippi; many of these states are Southern states. A Democrat who can win every Southern states would most likely have to be a conservative Democrat with strong Southern appeal.

Regardless of what would happen in an up-or-down abortion referendum in a state like Georgia, abortion isn't the liability for Republicans there that it is in Michigan, for example.  There is a group of voters who are apathetic on abortion.  Pro-choice activists did a good job convincing those voters to vote for their side on referendums, but that doesn't make them passionately opposed to pro-life policies enough to vote for a Democrat.  Those voters exist everywhere, but I also think that an abortion referendum would be closer to Trump-Biden numbers in Georgia than it was in Michigan or Kansas (which have way more secular WWC voters).

*Pro-life groups actually used to have success in getting some of those votes in referendums.  The pro-life side outran Kay Ivey in 2018 in Alabama and outran Donald Trump in 2020 in Louisiana in referendums.  With better messaging, it's possible that the referendum results could shift a bit.  But, abortion referendums don't tell the whole story of how abortion impacts a race.

[RINO Tom]

^ I actually think A LOT of voters are "usually" apathetic on abortion ... the overturning of Roe v. Wade put a huge spotlight on it, and it likely pushed a lot of moderates toward the pro-choice camp.  I suspect a nationally covered push by liberals to ensure protection for a right to a late-term abortion under any circumstances would reframe the issue in a more pro-life POV for many moderates, as well.  I think the evidence for this is that (1) you get significantly different results for an abortion opinion poll depending on the wording and (2) a very significant percent of voters vote for the opposite party of their stance on abortion.  In 2020, 24% of pro-choice voters went for Trump, and 23% of pro-life voters went for Biden.   Even in 2022, there were very significant numbers of self-described pro-choice voters that supported Republicans in governor races just months after Roe v. Wade was overturned and turned into a statewide issue:

PRO-CHOICE VOTERS ONLY
Arizona: 74% DEM, 24% GOP
Florida: 67% DEM, 33% GOP
Georgia: 71% DEM, 28% GOP
Michigan: 81% DEM, 17% GOP
Nevada: 67% DEM, 31% GOP
New Hampshire: 57% DEM, 42% GOP
Ohio: 56% DEM, 43% GOP
Pennsylvania: 81% DEM, 18% GOP
Texas: 75% DEM, 23% GOP
Wisconsin: 73% DEM, 26% GOP

While Sununu in New Hampshire was a relatively pro-choice Republican (explaining some of the decreased margin), DeWine in Ohio is pretty damn pro-life.  It's also worth noting, though, that pro-life voters shifted WAY to the right, which indicates either increased turnout from more rabid pro-life voters or significant numbers of pro-life Democrats voting GOP in an election that they thought might determine their states' abortion laws (this seems suspect, though, as no GOP candidate won huge portions of Democrats?).