leading 2012 GOP presidential candidates as of early 2009?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, for the purpose of this poll, assume the Democrats win the 2008 presidential election.  Whichever scenario for a Democratic victory in '08 that you think is most likely, assume that that happens.  Now here's the question: In March 2009 (just two years from now), who do you think will be regarded as the early leading contenders for the 2012 GOP nomination?  Pick two choices: the "famous frontrunner" and the "unknown frontrunner".

The "famous frontrunner" is whoever you think will be regarded as the early favorite among the potential candidates who are already well known nationally by March '09.  This will probably be whoever is leading in the really early 2012 polls taken in early 2009.  (In early 2005, this would have been Hillary Clinton for the Dems, and either Giuliani or McCain for the GOP.)  This doesn't have to be someone who's already well known as of 2007!  It could be someone you think will become famous within the next two years.  Maybe as the 2008 VP candidate or one of the unsuccessful '08 presidential candidates.  (For example, Huckabee isn't that well known now, but he'll likely become famous if he does OK in the '08 primaries, so you could pick him.)

The "unknown frontrunner" is someone who you think will still be relatively unknown by March 2009, but will be regarded by political insiders as a leading candidate for the nomination (for whatever reason).  Throughout much of 2005 and into early 2006, George Allen and Mark Warner were arguably the "unknown frontrunners" for the GOP and Democratic nominations for '08 respectively.  They had very little national name recognition and didn't do well in national polls, but political insiders were predicting that they would be leading candidates for their nominations.  (Obviously, it didn't work out that way in this case.)

I know I should maybe have split this into two separate polls, but I prefer combining the discussion in one place.  Just click two boxes in the poll, one for the "famous frontrunner" and one for the "unknown frontrunner".  (Apologies if your favorite candidate is not included.  I obviously couldn't cover everybody.)

My picks:
famous frontrunner: Jeb Bush
unknown frontrunner: ?? (not sure; that's why I'm eager to see what other people's answers are)

[Reaganfan]

Well, if the democrats win in 2008, Jeb Bush becomes a quick favorite. He can and probably would win, especially if the democratic president is weak on national security, which I'd guess would be true.

Haley Barbour and Tim Pawlenty recieved my vote though, especially Barbour. He would be a top contender.

[SPC]

Famous frontrunner: Congressman Mike Pence (R-IN)
Unknown frontrunner: Senator and RSCC Chairman John Ensign (R-NV)

[TomC]

Jeb Bush, but he won't poll well in general election polls.

[nclib]

Well, if the democrats win in 2008, Jeb Bush becomes a quick favorite.

I'm not sure if the GOP would want to take a chance on Jeb, given that, if the Dems win in '08 it will at least partially be because of Bush fatigue.

[Reaganfan]

Well, if the democrats win in 2008, Jeb Bush becomes a quick favorite.

I'm not sure if the GOP would want to take a chance on Jeb, given that, if the Dems win in '08 it will at least partially be because of Bush fatigue.

Who would have thought the son of "terrible George Bush" would be elected just eight years later?

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not sure if the GOP would want to take a chance on Jeb, given that, if the Dems win in '08 it will at least partially be because of Bush fatigue.

Who would have thought the son of "terrible George Bush" would be elected just eight years later?

Yeah, and by the same token, three years ago, many were saying that Giuliani would never be a leading contender for the GOP nomination because of his social liberalism, McCain would never run in '08 because the base didn't like him and he was too old, and Obama wouldn't run in '08 because Senators never run for president in the middle of their first term.  It's the power of celebrity in today's political culture.  Just about anyone famous can become a contender.

There are only so many Republicans with high national name recognition.  Two years from now (if the Democrats win the election next year), there will be early polls for the 2012 GOP nomination.  Someone with high national name recognition will be leading those polls, and pundits will most likely be calling that person "the frontrunner", even if it's too early at that point to be talking about such things.  If it's not Jeb Bush, then who will it be?

[Kevin]

Favored Frontrunner-Governor Bobby Jindal(R-LA)
Underdog who could pull an upset-Former Governor and current Senator Arnold Schwarzenegger(R-CA)

[Saxwsylvania]

Favored Frontrunner-Governor Bobby Jindal(R-LA)
Underdog who could pull an upset-Former Governor and current Senator Arnold Schwarzenegger(R-CA)

You are aware that Schwarzenegger is constitutionally ineligible, correct?

[Kevin]

Favored Frontrunner-Governor Bobby Jindal(R-LA)
Underdog who could pull an upset-Former Governor and current Senator Arnold Schwarzenegger(R-CA)

You are aware that Schwarzenegger is constitutionally ineligible, correct?

Yes but I'm assuming they change the constituntion first.

[SPC]

Now let's see the history of GOP candidates six years prior to their nomination:
1994- TX Governor-elect and son of former president
1990- KS Senator and Senate Minority Leader
1982- incumbent VP
1974- Two-term CA Governor
1970- MI Rep and House Minority Leader
1962- Former VP

So going by history, some potentials should be Rick Perry, Mitch McConnell, Dick Cheney, Arnold Schwarzennegger, John Boehner, and Dan Quayle. Realistically, though, none of them will be running in 2012.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, if the democrats win in 2008, Jeb Bush becomes a quick favorite. He can and probably would win, especially if the democratic president is weak on national security, which I'd guess would be true.

A Democrat would not ignore a memo titled "Bin Laden determined to strike in US". Only a Republican would. Don't forget how Bush ignored the Katrina warnings. It is the Republican party that is weak on national security. The main weakness of the Democrats are not standing up to the Republican's American destroying policies.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Pence and Fred Thompson

[Reaganfan]

Well, if the democrats win in 2008, Jeb Bush becomes a quick favorite. He can and probably would win, especially if the democratic president is weak on national security, which I'd guess would be true.

A Democrat would not ignore a memo titled "Bin Laden determined to strike in US". Only a Republican would. Don't forget how Bush ignored the Katrina warnings. It is the Republican party that is weak on national security. The main weakness of the Democrats are not standing up to the Republican's American destroying policies.

What a hypocrite you are. Bill Clinton ignored it for eight years. Between 1993 and 2001 there were many attacks, including one already on the World Trade Center...and nothing was done. Who was President from 1993-2001? You are a very disinformed poster, JFern.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, if the democrats win in 2008, Jeb Bush becomes a quick favorite. He can and probably would win, especially if the democratic president is weak on national security, which I'd guess would be true.

A Democrat would not ignore a memo titled "Bin Laden determined to strike in US". Only a Republican would. Don't forget how Bush ignored the Katrina warnings. It is the Republican party that is weak on national security. The main weakness of the Democrats are not standing up to the Republican's American destroying policies.

What a hypocrite you are. Bill Clinton ignored it for eight years. Between 1993 and 2001 there were many attacks, including one already on the World Trade Center...and nothing was done. Who was President from 1993-2001? You are a very disinformed poster, JFern.

You are a total joke. The Republicans only passed a watered down version of the anti-terrorism bill Clinton wanted in 1996.

[Boris]

Well, if the democrats win in 2008, Jeb Bush becomes a quick favorite. He can and probably would win, especially if the democratic president is weak on national security, which I'd guess would be true.

A Democrat would not ignore a memo titled "Bin Laden determined to strike in US". Only a Republican would. Don't forget how Bush ignored the Katrina warnings. It is the Republican party that is weak on national security. The main weakness of the Democrats are not standing up to the Republican's American destroying policies.

What a hypocrite you are. Bill Clinton ignored it for eight years. Between 1993 and 2001 there were many attacks, including one already on the World Trade Center...and nothing was done. Who was President from 1993-2001? You are a very disinformed poster, JFern.

That's not entirely true.

1993 World Trade Center bombing - most of the perpetrators caught and imprisoned from 1993-1995. They really did a pretty bad job of covering their tracks. Notable exception being Khalid Shaikh Mohammed.

1998 East African Bombings - sh**tty response by a President weakened by the Lewinsky Scandal and a group of people within the CIA and the military not having the stomach for the cure.

2000 USS Cole Bombing - This one's more complex and confusing. You have Clinton claiming that FBI/CIA refused to validate that Bin Laden was behind the attack combined with sketchy reports of US government officials in Yemen halting the subsequent FBI Investigation. Plus, you have the CIA/military in a 1998 state of mind and the fact that Clinton was leaving office in three months. Then you have the upcoming national election in two weeks. Regardless, someone ed up.

[Mr. Morden]

So it looks like several people agree with me that Jeb Bush could well be an early frontrunner for the 2012 GOP nomination if the Dems win in '08.  Here's a related question: Would Jeb's prospects be significantly different if it's Hillary Clinton who wins next year, as opposed to Obama or Edwards?  Because I'm wondering if even Republicans might be resistant to going with another Bush after just having had presidents Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton.  OTOH, if it's President Obama or President Edwards or President Richardson, maybe Jeb might have a better chance.

[12th Doctor]

Mark my words, if the Republicans lose in '08, Norm Coleman will be the leading GOP candidate.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Sununu or Paulenty.

Unless either of them is on the '08 ticket.

Thompson will be 70 in 2012 so I wouldn't bet on him.

[SPC]

I'm going to say that these people will be the more notable in the 2012 GOP field:

John Ensign
Mike Pence
Tim Pawlenty
Bobby Jindal
Bob Riley
Charlie Crist

[True Democrat]

I voted Crist and Barbour.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think Palin, Jindal, Owens, and Pence will be the frontrunners with Tom Clancy as the dark-horse candidate

[Kevin]

So it looks like several people agree with me that Jeb Bush could well be an early frontrunner for the 2012 GOP nomination if the Dems win in '08.  Here's a related question: Would Jeb's prospects be significantly different if it's Hillary Clinton who wins next year, as opposed to Obama or Edwards?  Because I'm wondering if even Republicans might be resistant to going with another Bush after just having had presidents Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton.  OTOH, if it's President Obama or President Edwards or President Richardson, maybe Jeb might have a better chance.

I'm assuming if Hillary wins in 08, and is a poor President by the time 2012 rolls around I think the Republican Party will be looking to someone outside the Bush family and maybe someone outside the box of Red State tradtional conservatives.

[Kevin]

I think Palin, Jindal, Owens, and Pence will be the frontrunners with Tom Clancy as the dark-horse candidate

I've always wondered why Tom Clancy never ran for public office I would think he would make a great Senator.

[jokerman]

Charlie Crist
Bobby Jindal
Lindsay Graham
Condolezza Rice
Norm Coleman