Brazil thread 2023-

[Red Velvet]

Current Brazilian Politics Starter-Pack:

[buritobr]

Is the mayor in Belem well liked?

No. The last approval rate poll I saw was conducted in March 2023. Edmílson has 27% approval, 69% disapproval.
He was much better rated when he was mayor of Belém in PT between 1997 and 2004

[buritobr]

Regular municipal elections take place on the same day in all municipalities. The next one will take place on October 2024. But today, there was an extra election for mayor of Brusque-SC, because the TSE cancelled the election of 2020, due to violation of law committed by the winning ticket.
Brusque-SC is a city founded by German immigrants. A large share of the population has German ancestry. This city is the home of Havan, a department store chain owned by Luciano Hang, the most famous pro-Bolsonaro businessman.



In the election today, the Christian Democrat André Vechi won. He had 27.183 votes (40,5%). He was endoresed by Bolsonaro's PL. The PT candidate was the 3rd place. He had 23.4%. There will be no runoff because Brusque-SC has fewer than 200,000 voters.
The PT candidate permormed slightly better than Lula in the presidential election of 2022. In Brusque-SC, Bolsonaro had 78.6%, Lula had 21.4%.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/actis_esteban/status/1699433117147185216
Brazil - Yellow
Mexico - Green
Venezuela- Purple
Argentina - Orange
Colombia - Pink
Ecuador - Red

It’s the real numbers that help explain Lula’s and Petro’s difference of approach in regards oil discussions. Though renewable sources are seen as the future, Brazil’s understanding is that it will take a looong time before they become the only or even major option and oil will stay being strategic for the next decades.

The non-stop growth in Brazil curve during three decades (as the tweet says, unimaginable decades ago that we would surpass both Mexico and Venezuela as the regional power on this) shows it’s a cohesive country project, regardless of leadership ideology.

Brazil has also surpassed the USA as the world’s top corn exporter in 2023 and projections say that will keep being the case for 2024 and in the future. The US had been the main global reference on Corn for over a century.

https://twitter.com/apocalypseos/status/1698055383187914826

[Pivaru]

New Ipec poll:

Opinion on Lula's government:
Good/Great - 40% (+3)
Regular - 32% (-)
Bad/Terrible - 25% (-3)

Approval of Lula's way of governing
Approve - 56% (+3)
Disapprove - 39% (-1)
Don't know - 6% (-1)

Do you trust Lula:
Yes - 50%
No - 47%

Is Lula's government better or worse than you expected:
Better - 35%
Worse - 31%
About what I expected - 31%

Do you think the economy has gotten better or worse in the last 6 months?
Better - 42%
Worse - 29%
It's about the same - 27%

Do you think the economy will do better or worse in the next 6 months?
Better - 51%
Worse - 27%
About the same - 18%


In other news, the government has just enacted a reform in Lula's cabinet. The Ministry of Ports and Airports, headed by former São Paulo governor Márcio França (PSB), will now be headed federal deputy Silvio Costa Filho (Republicanos). The Ministry of Industry and Commerce, headed by vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), will lose some of it's powers due to the creation of the Ministry of the Micro and Medium-Sized Business, which will be headed by França. Finally, former Olympic medalist Ana Moser (independent) has been fired as Minister of Sports, that spot will now be given to federal deputy André Fufuca (PP). The reform is meant to get the centrão parties to solidify their support to the government's initiatives in congress.

[Pivaru]

New Datafolha poll:

Opinion on Lula's government:
Good/Great - 38% (+1)
Bad/Terrible - 31% (+3)
Regular - 30% (-3)
Don't know - 2% (-1)

Expectations of Lula's government going forward:
43% think Lula's government will be good/great going forward
28% think it'll be bad/terrible going forward
26% think it'll be regular
2% have no opinion

Has Lula done more or less than you expected?
Less - 53%
About what I expected - 25%
More - 17%
Don't know - 3%
Answered something else - 2%

Lula's numbers are better than Bolsonaro's at this point in his presidency (29% good/great, 38% bad/terrible, 30% regular), but worse than basically everyone else (FHC only had 15% bad/terrible, Dilma had 11% and back in his first term, Lula had 10%).

[PSOL]

Mark my words, Lula not being on the ballot will make the next election somewhat competitive than if he was running. He’s the only thing preventing PT from dropping in the polls and being surpassed by PSB or PTB. PT governments won’t outlive Lula’s time on this earth for long.

[Red Velvet]

Mark my words, Lula not being on the ballot will make the next election somewhat competitive than if he was running. He’s the only thing preventing PT from dropping in the polls and being surpassed by PSB or PTB. PT governments won’t outlive Lula’s time on this earth for long.

Not really. These parties don’t have particularly strong names either (with PTB being a right-wing party these days btw) and PT has a strong partisan base regardless Lula.

Lula makes the party stronger because he has broader appeal but there’s at least 10% of people who will vote for PT no matter what as it’s the only party with actual loyal partisan following in Brazil.

Lula will most definitely run in 2026 for the last time ever and then in 2030 I expect Haddad to be his sucessor.

I think 2018 is good parameter, even with strong Anti-PT sentiment that time and Lula in jail, they still got 2nd place with 29% of the vote, which is quite impressive.

PT is a good party overall, which is different from saying it’s perfect. It has a built national structure that will give it a life after Lula, it’s much stronger than PSDB was in terms of base loyalty.

Like, people in the right kinda supported PSDB by default most of times, so much that they usually started very low on polling only to grow a lot during the campaign to reach 2nd place. It was like that in 2014 for instance, where it seemed a sure Marina vs Dilma runoff, until Aécio continuously grew on the polls, with the “undecideds” naturally falling in line.

I don’t really see that happening in the left in the near-future at all. Maybe in a distant future scenario years after Lula, if PT continuously puts out uncharismatic leaders to run and a better left-wing alternative appears, taking out their votes. But that wouldn’t happen before 2040 or so.

[Red Velvet]

New Datafolha poll:

Opinion on Lula's government:
Good/Great - 38% (+1)
Bad/Terrible - 31% (+3)
Regular - 30% (-3)
Don't know - 2% (-1)

Expectations of Lula's government going forward:
43% think Lula's government will be good/great going forward
28% think it'll be bad/terrible going forward
26% think it'll be regular
2% have no opinion

Has Lula done more or less than you expected?
Less - 53%
About what I expected - 25%
More - 17%
Don't know - 3%
Answered something else - 2%

Lula's numbers are better than Bolsonaro's at this point in his presidency (29% good/great, 38% bad/terrible, 30% regular), but worse than basically everyone else (FHC only had 15% bad/terrible, Dilma had 11% and back in his first term, Lula had 10%).

Expected results in the sense they’re better than Bolsonaro’s but still lower than what we were used to between 1994-2014. Impossible to depolarize society in months, IF it happens it would take a full successful term, maybe even two.

More from DATAFOLHA:

- 29% declare themselves as Petistas (“PT supporters”)
- 11% Neutral but leaning to Petistas
- 21% Neutral
- 7% Neutral but leaning to Bolsonarists
- 25% declare themselves as Bolsonarists

Basically the “left” is 40% of the electorate, the “right” a third of it and the rest is the weak center that has to fall in line with one of the two.

Clearly, even with all the setbacks they’ve suffered in this year, Bolsonarism will stay as the “right-wing” force for years to come. Important to say that because there are some people in power who believe that if we “destroy” Bolsonaro’s image and reputation, his support will die down.

I mean, that can even maybe work for Bolsonaro as a person but it’s obvious that this won’t change the new brand of “conservativism” that he represented. I would even say he was just randomly picked by the base that had already been radicalized during 2013-2018 period, with Dilma’s impeachment and Lula’s imprisonment all being elements that PROPELLED AND VALIDATED this shift.

It was only with Bolsonaro’s election and presence in power that major parts of the ~establishment~ woke up to how much the right had really radicalized and felt emboldened because of the establishment support they received, against the left. So now I’m under the interpretation there’s a hard “correction attempt” by said establishment in order to kill the new right that emerged and bring back a more establishment-friendly one, such as the one that was represented by PSDB neoliberals.

With a sane right back, they would be able to go back to harshly oppose the left without fear or guilt about the possibility of facilitating a Bolsonaro or one of his anti-democratic allies emergence. Which is why nowadays you see a complete shift in how domestic media treated PT in comparison to the 2010s.

That is something that will inevitably fail. The new right is clearly here to stay, under Bolsonaro as a representative or not. I do think you can definitely weaken Bolsonarism through repression but not kill it, it’s what they did with PT for example, weakening its support to 29% in 2018 1st round. But not weakening it enough for it not to be the main alternative to the winning person, putting it into a good position for future elections.

It will be the exact same thing with Bolsonarism what we saw happening with PT. By hitting Bolsonaro, you strengthen PT’s chances to win while not really being able to kill Bolsonarism’s core support after it has already been radicalized and validated into existence.

We have an extremely dumb and shallow media personalities who see themselves as intelectuals but are dumb as hell, incapable of thinking about anything on the macro spectrum as they have extremely short sighted eye. They feel like they can elevate the chances of who they WISHED could’ve win by attempting to destroy the others.

Ganging up on PT in 2010s didn’t bring the PSDB victory they hoped for and the same thing will be true in regards to Bolsonaro. Destroying him will not bring back PSDB as the right-wing representative as they want. It’s time they accept the country as it is in reality, outside their own heads.

[buritobr]

Everyone in the broad front who supported Lula in 2022, from the far-left to the center, had a positive view on Lula's speech today in the opening of the UN General Assembly. He told about topics nobody can be against: need for action against misery, unequality, climate change, reform of the IMF, free Assange

Bolsonaro in the UN in 2019 was different. His speech was full of Bannon topics, his audience was only the far-right who was endorsing him since the beggining of the 2018 campaign. His speech was further to the right than the voters who voted for him only in order to be against the PT.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bannonism in its raw form isn't that popular anywhere, that is why it needs to be disguised.

[Red Velvet]

Lula’s full UN speech:

[Red Velvet]

The Indigenous “Marco Temporal” from congress being rejected in the Supreme Court as it already reached a necessary majority of 6.

7 against; 2 in favor (the two ministers nominated by Bolsonaro), with 2 others still to vote.

Thank heavens for the Supreme Court because we would be in Stone Age if we depended on our congress for anything.

Legislative power (“Big Center” land) is easily the worst of the three powers. Always has been. 50% of the country problems would be eliminated with a more decent congress.

The “Marco Temporal” was a theory launched that interpreted the constitutional right of Indigenous lands to exist based on the date of the 1988 constitution. That basically means Indigenous people would only have the right to occupy land that they already did back in 1988 and before without being entitled to the demarcation of new Indigenous land. That has now been rejected by the Supreme Court.

Great result but expected. I am dead curious about the Abortion vote. It’s about freaking damn time. We’re lagging behind in comparison to freaking Latin America - where we should have been a leadership instead of mere followers.

[Red Velvet]

NEW ATLAS POLL asked people in many different government areas whether they though the Lula government was better or worse than the Bolsonaro one.

Best perceived area in comparison is Foreign Policy, with a +18 net difference for Better

Worst perceived area in comparison is Public Safety, with a +1 net difference for Better

That means, Lula government is currently being considered better by Brazilians in ALL areas, including the ones where the Right-Wing tends to have better appeal and approval, which is Public Safety, even if it’s only marginally.

Areas from Better approval in comparison to Bolsonaro to Worst:

1. Foreign Policy: +18 net
2. Human Rights and Racial Equality: +18 net
3. Tourism, Culture and Events: +17 net
4. Environmental Policy: +15 net
5. Poverty Reduction and Social Policy: +14 net
6. Agricultural Policy: +14 net
7. Education Policy: +13 net
8. Investments; Infrastructure and Public Constructions: +12 net
9. Health Policy: +11 net
10. Housing and Urbanization of Favelas: +10 net
11. Fiscal Responsibility and Spending Control: +8 net
12. Easiness for Business and Tax Burden: +7 net
13. Transports; Roads and Airports: +7 net
14. Justice and Fighting against Corruption: +6 net
15. Industrial and Energetic Policy: +6 net
16. Public Safety: +1 net

Very typical list on matters where the left is more popular going to where it’s least popular tbh. The big right-wing populist appeal from Bolsonaro came from their rhetoric on Public Safety and Corruption in government, demanding for left-wing politicians to be locked up. And even in those two matters, Lula is currently more popular than Bolsonaro.

Besides that, you also have other topics where the right sells itself more often, regarding Business easiness, Fiscal Responsibility in the 2nd half of the list as well, unsurprisingly.

On the top on the list otoh, you see topics where Bolsonaro was most criticized for (ex: His racism; his anti-environmental rhetoric; his isolationism regarding Foreign Policy) or matters where the Right is naturally more unpopular (ex: Poverty Reduction; Culture Policy; etc).

[buritobr]

The approval rate poll is very close to the result of the 2022 runoff


Brazilian politics became very americanized. Almost everyone who voted for the winner approves his administration, almost everyone who voted for the other one disapproves the administration.

[Red Velvet]

New MDA/CNT poll measured evaluation of the government, its approval and also the one of multiple public political figures.

Lula’s Government EVALUATION:

Great - 15,9%
Good - 24,7%
Regular (Means neither Good or Bad, just Average) - 30,1%
Bad - 8,3%
Awful - 18,9%

Lula’s Government APPROVAL:

Approve - 54,9%
Disapprove - 39,0%
Don’t Know - 6,1%

Multiple political figures OPINION from best to worst:

1. Lula (Current President of Brazil) - net of +18
Positive - 49%
Negative - 31%

2. Geraldo Alckmin (Current Vice-President and Minister of Industry, Commerce and Development) - net of -3
Positive - 25%
Negative - 28%

3. Fernando Haddad (Current Minister of Economy) - net of -5
Positive - 28%
Negative - 33%

4. Alexandre de Moraes (Supreme Court Minister who gets lots of media) - net of -11
Positive - 25%
Negative - 36%

5 & 6. Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco (Respectively, Current President of Congress and the Current President of the Senate) - net of -17
Positive - 7% for Lira and 6% for Pacheco
Negative - 24% for Lira and 23% for Pacheco

7. Dilma Rousseff (Former President of Brazil; Current President of the BRICS Bank) - net of -21
Positive - 27%
Negative - 48%

8. Sérgio Moro (Current Senator; Former “Car-Wash” Operation Judge) - net of -22
Positive - 23%
Negative- 45%

9. Jair Bolsonaro (Former President of Brazil) - net of -25
Positive - 26%
Negative- 51%

10. Aécio Neves (Current Congressman; Former PSDB candidate in the 2014 Election) - net of -37
Positive - 8%
Negative - 45%

11. Michel Temer (Former President of Brazil) - net of -43
Positive - 8%
Negative - 51%

Opinion about Lula is extremely impressive when you compare it to the one from other political figures. Considering global and national polarization, where people are extremely demanding and unsatisfied about anything, Lula achieving a personal net approval and being the only one able to do so evidences how he’s the best and only alternative to unite the country. Anyone else would have fared much worse, regardless of what political camp they’re a part of.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New MDA/CNT poll measured evaluation of the government, its approval and also the one of multiple public political figures.

Lula’s Government EVALUATION:

Great - 15,9%
Good - 24,7%
Regular (Means neither Good or Bad, just Average) - 30,1%
Bad - 8,3%
Awful - 18,9%

Over 40% of people saying Good or Great, less than 30% saying Bad or Awful.
Not bad for Lula at all.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its almost like many are relieved to see the back of Bolsonaro and a grown up in charge again.

<looks to the UK in 2025?>

[buritobr]

Meeting of 2 FFs



Roger Waters is doing a tour in Brazil. Today, he met Lula
I will attend his concert next Saturday

[Red Velvet]

Omg I am going to Roger’s concert in Rio too!

Nice to see that he was with Lula today, Lula always meets with these foreign left-wing singers. He also did it with Coldplay.

I love Roger because he’s one of the few western celebs that have the balls to speak the truth to his people and they hear him.

[Comrade Funk]

Omg I am going to Roger’s concert in Rio too!

Nice to see that he was with Lula today, Lula always meets with these foreign left-wing singers. He also did it with Coldplay.

I love Roger because he’s one of the few western celebs that have the balls to speak the truth to his people and they hear him.

Eye opening month as a left-winger with Jewish blood. Ambivalence at best from the far-left regarding antisemitism. Here's another example.

[KaiserDave]

Question out of sincere ignorance

Who are the powerful players aside from Lula in the current administration? Haddad? Alckmin? Are their rivalries?

[buritobr]

Question out of sincere ignorance

Who are the powerful players aside from Lula in the current administration? Haddad? Alckmin? Are their rivalries?

Fernando Haddad is the most powerful, probably he will be the candidate in 2026 if Lula doesn't run for reelection or in 2030 if he runs. Flavio Dino is also powerful, but probably he will be chosen to be judge of the Supreme Court. Geraldo Alckmin and Simone Tebet are powerful because they are necessary for the government to keep support from the center and from part of the business.

Lula's cabinet is very broad in the political spectrum. There are Silvio Almeida, Sonia Guajajara, Aniele Franco, Celso Amorin, Esther Dweck in the far-left, Fernando Haddad, Flavio Dino, Mauro Vieira, Camilo Santana, Marina Silva in the center-left, Geraldo Alckmin, Simone Tebet in the center, Mucio in the center-right, but we don't see open rivalries until now.

[Red Velvet]

Haddad, Alckmin and Dino are probably the bigger names.

Marina Silva feels more like a card to use to prove the government pro-environmental credentials but she never will feel like a real part of the government, more like someone who is also there as an “intruder” and who does their own thing.

Simone Tebet everyone knows is only there as a “thank you” from Lula for openly endorsing him in the runoff after losing.

Other names are either technical non-politician names OR occupy ministries that are small OR are bland establishment or less memorable politicians that don’t really register in people’s minds. Even Camilo Santana, occupying an important seat as Minister of Education.

Haddad and Alckmin are naturally “big” for having running for president before and coming in 2nd place both (2018 and 2006 respectively), being more present in the public imaginary. Minister of Economy is also extremely important position that gives a large presence to Haddad too. And Alckmin is now probably the most known/existent in the public imaginary Vice-President that we ever had considering usually very few people know who they even are, Alckmin is an exception to this because people already know him after years of political exposure in the media.

Flávio Dino is more about his perceived potential to lead the left after Lula but not only I don’t see it for him at all, he could be very well be the frontrunner to be Lula’s next pick for the Supreme Court seat that is vacant. He’s from a non-PT left party, so there are theories PT would love to send him to the Supreme Court in order to put him out as a future competitor for the left support but like I said, that’s bullsh**t because Dino doesn’t really have the same charisma exactly.

If I had to predict, Lula’s sucessor in the PT is very naturally Haddad indeed. His main issue is that leftist sectors aren’t fans of him and would prefer someone more exciting, which is how some specific groups see Dino for example.

I think Haddad would consolidate PT as a real centrist party in Brazilian politics, it would be interesting to see some liberals who always hated the left voting for him cuz they like him or are okay with him tho

[Jingizu]

Omg I am going to Roger’s concert in Rio too!

Nice to see that he was with Lula today, Lula always meets with these foreign left-wing singers. He also did it with Coldplay.

I love Roger because he’s one of the few western celebs that have the balls to speak the truth to his people and they hear him.

Eye opening month as a left-winger with Jewish blood. Ambivalence at best from the far-left regarding antisemitism. Here's another example.

Roger Waters, folks