Brazil thread 2023-

[rc18]

There are many people who earn money selling flags to demonstrators. And they produced a wrong Israel flag. This is a wicca pentagram. Nothing related to abrahamic religions.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seal_of_Solomon

[Vosem]

Why is Tarcisio so popular as Governor of Sao Paulo?

[Red Velvet]

Why is Tarcisio so popular as Governor of Sao Paulo?

He isn’t? At least from what I know in the city.

The State Interior may be a different story for being more conservative leaning, idk. Either way, I doubt it’s anything different than any approval that any average PSDB governor always had before.

[buritobr]

Why is Tarcisio so popular as Governor of Sao Paulo?

According to Atlas Intel, in December 2023, Tarcísio's approval rate was 57%. He had 56% in the runoff in 2022. This result is very expected. It is the beggining of the first term. Usually, presidents/governors/mayors in the first year of the first term have approval of almost 100% of the people who voted for him

[buritobr]

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel published in X a picture of the Bolsonaro's rally in São Paulo and expressed gratitude for the flags of Israel. So, a Minister of Foreign Affairs used his social network to promote a rally in a foreign country whose intent was opposiong to a trial of a former president who is suspicious of takink part of a plot against the democratic rules.

This is one more motive for Brazil to keep distance to Israel during Netanyahu's administration.

[Red Velvet]

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel published in X a picture of the Bolsonaro's rally in São Paulo and expressed gratitude for the flags of Israel. So, a Minister of Foreign Affairs used his social network to promote a rally in a foreign country whose intent was opposiong to a trial of a former president who is suspicious of takink part of a plot against the democratic rules.

This is one more motive for Brazil to keep distance to Israel during Netanyahu's administration.

Distance? We should end diplomatic relationship with that country ASAP

[Red Velvet]

NEW Quaest poll asked Brazilians about their positions on Israel and Palestine.

Main conclusion from the poll is that even though a majority thinks Lula exaggerated on comparing Israel actions with Hitler’s genocide, opinions about Israel plummeted in comparison to same poll results in October 2023.

Israel “disapproval” is now on par with the Palestine “disapproval” for the 1st time. Results:

Do you think Lula exaggerated in comparing what’s happening in Gaza with Hitler’s Holocaust?

He exaggerated - 60%
He didn’t exaggerate- 28%
Don’t Know - 11%

Do you agree that Israel is exaggerating in their reaction against Hamas?

Agree - 36%
Disagree - 50%
Don’t Know - 15%

PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON ISRAEL
Favorable - 39% (-13!!!)
Unfavorable - 41% (+14!!!)
Don’t Know - 20% (-1)

PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON PALESTINE
Favorable - 23% (-4)
Unfavorable - 45% (+2)
Don’t Know - 32% (+1)

The change is related to when Israel was attacked by Hamas, in October 2023. Showing that as long as the war is prolonged, more likely is for public opinion to turn against Israel.

Meanwhile, Brazilian diplomacy raises the tone again against Israel, saying that it doesn’t have “Ethical or Legal” limits in their military offensive in Gaza, demanding a response from the international community.

[buritobr]

NEW Quaest poll asked Brazilians about their positions on Israel and Palestine.

Main conclusion from the poll is that even though a majority thinks Lula exaggerated on comparing Israel actions with Hitler’s genocide, opinions about Israel plummeted in comparison to same poll results in October 2023.

Israel “disapproval” is now on par with the Palestine “disapproval” for the 1st time. Results:

Do you think Lula exaggerated in comparing what’s happening in Gaza with Hitler’s Holocaust?

He exaggerated - 60%
He didn’t exaggerate- 28%
Don’t Know - 11%

Do you agree that Israel is exaggerating in their reaction against Hamas?

Agree - 36%
Disagree - 50%
Don’t Know - 15%

PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON ISRAEL
Favorable - 39% (-13!!!)
Unfavorable - 41% (+14!!!)
Don’t Know - 20% (-1)

PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON PALESTINE
Favorable - 23% (-4)
Unfavorable - 45% (+2)
Don’t Know - 32% (+1)

The change is related to when Israel was attacked by Hamas, in October 2023. Showing that as long as the war is prolonged, more likely is for public opinion to turn against Israel.

Meanwhile, Brazilian diplomacy raises the tone again against Israel, saying that it doesn’t have “Ethical or Legal” limits in their military offensive in Gaza, demanding a response from the international community.

I think that the question about Lula's statement was biased. The use of the word "exaggerated" was an incentive to answer "yes". The question would be more neutral if it was "do you consider Lula comparing what’s happening in Gaza with Hitler’s Holocaust correct or incorrect?"

Low income Brazilians receive pro-Israel propaganda in the evangelic churches. Medium/high income Brazilians receive pro--Israel propaganda in the media. Even though, support for Israel is <50%. Considering what the IDF is doing in Gaza, no propaganda can make the majority support the country.

[buritobr]

Quaest poll March 2024
Lula's approval rate fell, but the net approval rate is still positive
51% approve, 46% disapprove


Lula's voters are divided concerning Lula's comparison between Israeli military operation in Gaza and Hitler. Almost all the Bolsonaro's voters disapprove


Atlas poll March 2024 showed an even closer result concerning Lula's administration
47% approve, 46% disapprove


Despite the low approval of Lula's statement on Israel, foreign relations is the area in which a higher % of voters think that Lula is doing better than Bolsonaro


According to Atlas, 87.1% of Lula's voters in 2022, 2.9% of Bolsonaro's voters, 67.2% of Tebet's voters, 58.6% of Gomes's voters, 27.9% of non-voters approve Lula's administration on March 2024


Approval rate of Lula's administratin in other demographics according to Atlas

Sex
Male 45.1%
Female 49.4%

Age
16-24: 48.4%
25-34: 44.8%
35-44: 48.0%
45-59: 48.4%
60-100: 47.3%

Monthly income (R$)
0-2000: 53.6%
2000-3000: 42.2%
3000-5000: 41.9%
5000-10000: 47.6%
10000-: 48.6%

Instruction
Elementary: 45.5%
High School: 45;9%
College: 52.1%

Region
Southeast: 43.4%
Center-West: 50.3%
South: 37%
North: 49.7%
Northeast: 56.3%

Religion
Catholic: 52.6%
Evangelic: 29.2%
Other: 52.4%
Believer without religion: 54.6%
Atheist: 63.1%

Sexual Orientation
Heterosexual: 43.3%
Homosexual: 63%
Pansexual: 47.5%
Bisexual: 83.6%
Other: 59.4%

Receive Bolsa Família benefit
Yes: 55.4%
No: 45.4%

[buritobr]

Madonna will perform a free concert at Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro on May 4th 2024. She has the intent to have the biggest audience of her 40 year career.

[Pivaru]

New Ipec poll:

Opinion Lula's government:
Good/Great - 33% (-5)
Regular - 33% (+3)
Bad/Awful - 32% (+2)

According to the poll, the government's approval among fell the most among the following groups:
People who voted for Lula in 2022 - 61% (-8)
People who live in the northeast - 43% (-9)
People who live in the southeast - 30% (-7)
People who earn up to 1 minimum wage per month - 39% (-12)
Blacks and pardos - 35% (-8)
Women - 33% (-7)
Those who only completed high school - 26% (-7)

Approval of Lula's way of governing:
Approve - 49% (-2)
Disapprove - 45% (+2)
Don't know/didn't answer - 6% (-)

Do you trust Lula?
I don't trust Lula - 51% (+1)
I trust Lula - 45% (-3)
Don't know/didn't answer - 4% (+1)

Is the government going in the right direction?
No - 50%
Yes - 43%
Don't know/didn't answer - 7%

Has Lula's government been better, worse or about the same you expected?
Worse - 38% (+3)
About the same - 30% (-)
Better - 30% (-2)
Don't know/didn't answer - 3% (+1)

In regards to Lula's relation with congress this year:
I think the government will have a harder time dealing with congress this year - 59%
I think the government will have an easier time dealing with congress this year - 31%
Don't know/didn't answer - 9%

This is Lula's worst poll since the start of his third term.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is this poll dip related to Lula's recent comments on the Middle East?

[buritobr]

Is this poll dip related to Lula's recent comments on the Middle East?

Probably one of the causes, but not the biggest one. There was a rise in the price of food in January and February 2024, and the dengue epidemics. The biggest decline of Lula's approval rate came from low income people (a group in which he had the highest approval rate).

[Pivaru]

New Datafolha poll on the São Paulo mayoral election:

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) - 30%
Rodrigo Nunes (MDB) - 29%
Tabata Amaral (PSB) - 8%
Marina Helena (Novo) - 7%
Kim Kataguiri (União) - 4%
Altino (PSTU) - 2%
None/Blank/Null - 14%
Don't know - 6%

Without Kataguiri:
Rodrigo Nunes (MDB) - 30%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) - 29%
Tabata Amaral (PSB) - 9%
Marina Helena (Novo) - 7%
Altino (PSTU) - 1%
None/Blank/Null - 16%
Don't know - 7%

Without Kataguiri and Tabata:
Rodrigo Nunes (MDB) - 33%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) - 33%
Marina Helena (Novo) - 8%
Altino (PSTU) - 2%
None/Blank/Null - 17%
Don't know - 7%

34% would never vote for Boulos, 32% would never vote for Kataguiri, 27% would never vote for Altino, 19% would never vote for Tabata and 18% would never vote for Helena.

Nunes is the incumbent mayor, he is approved by 29% of voters, disapproved by 24% and 43% think his government has been just regular. 64% of people say he has done less than they expected as mayor.

Boulos is Lula's candidate and left wingers on Twitter have been hyping him up since his solid performance back in the 2020 mayoral election. He has been leading most polls, but his lead has progressively got smaller and smaller and now Nunes seems to finally be in striking distance. I think most people who actually know anything about politics are not surprised by this, Nunes is the incumbent, he has the public machine on his side, the centrão parties support him, Boulos himself is not any kind of flawless candidate, you get the point.

That's not to say that Nunes is in a perfectly comfortable situation, he has to walk a fine line between appeasing the bolsonaristas so they coalesce behind him during the second round (or maybe even the first) to defeat Boulos while also not turning away more moderate voters who are repulsed by Bolsonaro and his more ideological allies. Over the past few months, different bolsonaristas have thrown their hats into the ring, most notably Ricardo Salles, Bolsonaro's former Minister of the Environment. He did eventually get talked down from going forward with this plan of his, but it does serve to show that there is a segment of right wingers who would rather have a more ideological option. A big concern of the Nunes campaign has been trying to prevent this, there is a fear that if a formidable bolsonarista campaign gets off the ground, it could end up leading to a Boulos x bolsonarista second round. Ultimately, I don't think such bolsonarista option will arise, but still.

As for the other candidates, Tabata is a federal deputy who is running as a left wing alternative to Boulos. She always presented herself as a leftist who's pragmatic, willing to vote for right wing economic policy if necessary. Needless to say, that isn't very popular with a lot of left wingers, but I imagine this brand must appeal to some people giving she is still polling at 8%, probably the kind of people who want a sensible™ technocratic ™ reasonable™ government. She has no chance though, even if she was more dogmatically left wing, she still would have no chance, the left in this country is too subservient to Lula, they'd never not vote for his candidate in a situation like this.

Kataguiri is another federal deputy who's known for being one of the founders of MBL, a right wing political group that was prominent back when Dilma was in power. I'm not convinced he'll actually run though, I have no doubt in my mind that he wants to do it, but his party, União Brasil, is a centrão party and they're pretty set on supporting Nunes as of now. MBL has been trying to create their own party as of recently, but if Bolsonaro failed to create his own party, I doubt MBL can do it (and even if they can, I doubt it gets off the ground before the election), so if Kataguiri really wants to run, he probably needs to find another party.

Marina Helena is surprising to me. There's someone I know who's very deep into Novo circles and they told me "hey, Helena is doing well in the SP mayoral election", I thought they were coping but jokes on me, 7% is a quite respectable showing given that Helena is a complete random who no one has ever heard of in a party that doesn't get free electoral as time on TV anymore. What I find interesting is that in the past elections where Novo candidates did well (with the exception of MG gubernatorial 2022, since Zema was the incumbent), they always started out polling poorly, only growing during the final few weeks of campaign. This is the first time I see a Novo candidate polling this well this early into the election cycle. Still, 7% is not enough and I doubt Helena ends up winning, I suspect a lot of her support comes from right wingers who are not satisfied with supporting someone like Nunes in the first turn, they probably intended to vote for Salles, but since that campaign went nowhere, they flocked to Helena since Novo is one of the most unambiguously right wing parties.

As for Altino, idk, he's some random guy.

All in all, good poll for Nunes, in spite of his mediocre approval rating.

[buritobr]

New Datafolha poll on the São Paulo mayoral election:

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) - 30%
Rodrigo Nunes (MDB) - 29%
Tabata Amaral (PSB) - 8%
Marina Helena (Novo) - 7%
Kim Kataguiri (União) - 4%
Altino (PSTU) - 2%
None/Blank/Null - 14%
Don't know - 6%

Without Kataguiri:
Rodrigo Nunes (MDB) - 30%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) - 29%
Tabata Amaral (PSB) - 9%
Marina Helena (Novo) - 7%
Altino (PSTU) - 1%
None/Blank/Null - 16%
Don't know - 7%

Without Kataguiri and Tabata:
Rodrigo Nunes (MDB) - 33%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) - 33%
Marina Helena (Novo) - 8%
Altino (PSTU) - 2%
None/Blank/Null - 17%
Don't know - 7%

34% would never vote for Boulos, 32% would never vote for Kataguiri, 27% would never vote for Altino, 19% would never vote for Tabata and 18% would never vote for Helena.

Nunes is the incumbent mayor, he is approved by 29% of voters, disapproved by 24% and 43% think his government has been just regular. 64% of people say he has done less than they expected as mayor.

Boulos is Lula's candidate and left wingers on Twitter have been hyping him up since his solid performance back in the 2020 mayoral election. He has been leading most polls, but his lead has progressively got smaller and smaller and now Nunes seems to finally be in striking distance. I think most people who actually know anything about politics are not surprised by this, Nunes is the incumbent, he has the public machine on his side, the centrão parties support him, Boulos himself is not any kind of flawless candidate, you get the point.

That's not to say that Nunes is in a perfectly comfortable situation, he has to walk a fine line between appeasing the bolsonaristas so they coalesce behind him during the second round (or maybe even the first) to defeat Boulos while also not turning away more moderate voters who are repulsed by Bolsonaro and his more ideological allies. Over the past few months, different bolsonaristas have thrown their hats into the ring, most notably Ricardo Salles, Bolsonaro's former Minister of the Environment. He did eventually get talked down from going forward with this plan of his, but it does serve to show that there is a segment of right wingers who would rather have a more ideological option. A big concern of the Nunes campaign has been trying to prevent this, there is a fear that if a formidable bolsonarista campaign gets off the ground, it could end up leading to a Boulos x bolsonarista second round. Ultimately, I don't think such bolsonarista option will arise, but still.

As for the other candidates, Tabata is a federal deputy who is running as a left wing alternative to Boulos. She always presented herself as a leftist who's pragmatic, willing to vote for right wing economic policy if necessary. Needless to say, that isn't very popular with a lot of left wingers, but I imagine this brand must appeal to some people giving she is still polling at 8%, probably the kind of people who want a sensible™ technocratic ™ reasonable™ government. She has no chance though, even if she was more dogmatically left wing, she still would have no chance, the left in this country is too subservient to Lula, they'd never not vote for his candidate in a situation like this.

Kataguiri is another federal deputy who's known for being one of the founders of MBL, a right wing political group that was prominent back when Dilma was in power. I'm not convinced he'll actually run though, I have no doubt in my mind that he wants to do it, but his party, União Brasil, is a centrão party and they're pretty set on supporting Nunes as of now. MBL has been trying to create their own party as of recently, but if Bolsonaro failed to create his own party, I doubt MBL can do it (and even if they can, I doubt it gets off the ground before the election), so if Kataguiri really wants to run, he probably needs to find another party.

Marina Helena is surprising to me. There's someone I know who's very deep into Novo circles and they told me "hey, Helena is doing well in the SP mayoral election", I thought they were coping but jokes on me, 7% is a quite respectable showing given that Helena is a complete random who no one has ever heard of in a party that doesn't get free electoral as time on TV anymore. What I find interesting is that in the past elections where Novo candidates did well (with the exception of MG gubernatorial 2022, since Zema was the incumbent), they always started out polling poorly, only growing during the final few weeks of campaign. This is the first time I see a Novo candidate polling this well this early into the election cycle. Still, 7% is not enough and I doubt Helena ends up winning, I suspect a lot of her support comes from right wingers who are not satisfied with supporting someone like Nunes in the first turn, they probably intended to vote for Salles, but since that campaign went nowhere, they flocked to Helena since Novo is one of the most unambiguously right wing parties.

As for Altino, idk, he's some random guy.

All in all, good poll for Nunes, in spite of his mediocre approval rating.

I have already opened the thread about the Brazil 2024 Municipal Elections in "International Elections"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=580397.0

[Red Velvet]

Is this poll dip related to Lula's recent comments on the Middle East?

Absolutely not because polls show the decrease happened within his core base - Northeast voters; Lower-income voters; etc. People who ignore the most foreign policy matters.

It’s about economic expectations not materializing after a year of Lula. Things didn’t get worse but they didn’t get better either and people romanticize 00s boom era a lot. Which is what creates disappointment with the meh results so far.

If the economy keeps growing around same 2% to 3% levels but without reflecting in clear gains on the bottom of society, it will be a Joe Biden situation for Lula because people give zero sh**ts about GDP growth if they don’t feel it reflects on their purchasing power. And everything still feels expensive; there isn’t the same formal job boom of opportunities from the later half of Lula government in the 00s.

After a year of government, people are beginning to demand their original high expectations to be met, honeymoon period is over.

Good news is that there is time to deliver good news but if the same muted scenario of “mediocre stability” with things staying the same then the Anti-incumbent bias will kick in like it’s happening everywhere in the world because societies are both more polarized while still way more demanding of great results like they’ve only been before in times of global crisis such as the 1929 crash.

Idk to expect tbh, I think things tend to get better but in a much slower pace than people demand nowadays.

[Red Velvet]

More news from Car-Wash operation, which in 2010s was glorified as a serious anti-corruption operation:

https://twitter.com/UOLNoticias/status/1768296124111057216

TRANSLATION: Car-Wash prosecutors discussed (Supreme Court Minister) Cármen Lúcia's hygiene and HIV without SUS: "50% ironic, 50% homophobic"

➡️ Even Lula's late wife, Marisa Letícia, was targeted. She was called the "tribufu of Stalinist hell”. @revistapiaui had access to the content of these conversations.

https://twitter.com/delucca/status/1768330129028137041

TRANSLATION: The level of absurdity in the messages exchanged between Car-Wash prosecutors was something so underground (Brazilian Slang for “Low”) that there were people defending and being applauded by others in the group for proposing the over-taxation of “those who get HIV”.

The entire matter reported by @revistapiaui is one disaster after another.

We had the extreme right in the judiciary bubble executing whatever they wanted for the sake of political gains while the Supreme Court acted passive/submissive to it before it realized whow the process and the people involved were a joke.

The current “Supreme Court high-activity” the far-right complains so much about NOW is a direct result and response to this type of sh*t that has been discovered, of the political weaponization of the judiciary that they started themselves lmao. Karma is a bitch.

[buritobr]

Lula's administration won't organize any official event in order to remember the 60th anniversary of the military coup of March 31st 1964. Lula wants to improve the long term relation with the armed forces.
In this issue, Lula is on the right of Gabriel Boric, who organized a big event to remember the 50th anniversary of the military coup of September 11th 1973.

[buritobr]

The brothers Domingos Brazão and Chiquinho Brazão were arrested today because the Federal Police finally found out that these two politicians were the masterminds of the murder of Rio de Janeiro councilor Marielle Franco (PSOL) in 2018. This crime shocked the world. Even Paris and Berlin have public squares named after the councilor. In 2019, the Civilian Police of the State of Rio de Janeiro found out that former policeman Ronnie Lessa was the responsible for the shoots. In exchange for the reduction of prison time, Lessa denounced Brazão brothers.
Brazão brothers are close to the paramilitary groups (milícias) composed by active and former policemen who control many favelas in Rio de Janeiro. Marielle Franco was close to human right activists and her main agenda was opposing this paramilitary groups.
Former head of Civilian Police of the State of Rio de Janeiro Rinaldo Barbosa was also arrested for harming the investigation.

Some people of the left though that some members of Bolsonaro family might be participating in the crime, since this family is also close to the paramilitary groups. But they were not.
Brazão brothers supported Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022. But Domingos Brazão supported Dilma Rousseff in 2010. They are right-wing but they are a kind of politician who always like to be close to the power.

See the Guardian article here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/24/marielle-franco-two-powerful-politicians-arrested-over-brazil

[Red Velvet]

The brothers Domingos Brazão and Chiquinho Brazão were arrested today because the Federal Police finally found out that these two politicians were the masterminds of the murder of Rio de Janeiro councilor Marielle Franco (PSOL) in 2018. This crime shocked the world. Even Paris and Berlin have public squares named after the councilor. In 2019, the Civilian Police of the State of Rio de Janeiro found out that former policeman Ronnie Lessa was the responsible for the shoots. In exchange for the reduction of prison time, Lessa denounced Brazão brothers.
Brazão brothers are close to the paramilitary groups (milícias) composed by active and former policemen who control many favelas in Rio de Janeiro. Marielle Franco was close to human right activists and her main agenda was opposing this paramilitary groups.
Former head of Civilian Police of the State of Rio de Janeiro Rinaldo Barbosa was also arrested for harming the investigation.

Some people of the left though that some members of Bolsonaro family might be participating in the crime, since this family is also close to the paramilitary groups. But they were not.
Brazão brothers supported Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022. But Domingos Brazão supported Dilma Rousseff in 2010. They are right-wing but they are a kind of politician who always like to be close to the power.

See the Guardian article here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/24/marielle-franco-two-powerful-politicians-arrested-over-brazil

Just say they’re from “Centrão” (“Big Center”) that most people will get it at this point.

Anyway the Chief of Police of Rio at the time of the murder being arrested for protecting the ones who ordered the crime just shows what everyone already knew: Rio de Janeiro Police = Militia Gangs.

These two are way too intertwined at this point to make a distinction. The murder resolution was kinda obvious and it was only solved because they took it away from the Rio state sphere and put the investigation into the hands of the Federal Police instead.

Rio state is ruled by crime these days and only Centrão governors can get elected. Motivation for Marielle’s murder is related to the expansion of militia-controlled areas.

My solution would be to get rid of all of Rio’s police and get fully new people inside. They would eventually get corrupted into crime as well because of the influence of politicians being structural at this point but a restart to get out the current rotten apples would at least mitigate the current critical scenario.

[buritobr]

Domingos Brazão was already mentioned as a hyphothesis by the media in 2019. Now, we have the confirmation.
The biggest surprise today is the police officer who was working to harm the investigation. Even though, many people always though that since the "milícias" were created by policemen, a large share of the polices would not be so willing to find the guilty. (But we should remember, there are still many serious people working in the police. The Civilian Police of Rio de Janeiro, under the command of other chief, found out that Ronnie Lessa was the man who shot).
The police officer who was trying to harm the investigation was named by General Braga Netto, who was in charge of law enforcement in the state of Rio de Janeiro in 2018, after the federal intervention of president Michel Temer. General Braga Netto became minister of Bolsonaro's administration and his running mate in the ticket for reelection in 2022.

[buritobr]

The New York Times found out that Jair Bolsonaro stayed in the Embassy of Hungary in Brasília between February 12th and February 14th. This newspaper found images of the security cameras of the Embassy.

Some experts in Law consider that this is a motive for preventive detention of the former president. The visit in the Embassy can be considered an attempt to escape Brazil and find asylum in a country which has an allied prime minister.

[buritobr]

Macron looks like happy

[Red Velvet]

The memes have gone viral more than the actual pics:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Macron looks like happy

[pictures]

Did Macron visit Brazil lol?