Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Seems weird to run for Treasurer while talking about abortion and J6, but Garrity is indeed an extremist who was probably just using the office to leverage a run for higher office later, though she seems to have forgotten to run for Senate this year.

Either way, Bizzarro would be a vast improvement and he's a tough type of guy who won't try to play nice with the PAGOP. Running him on a slate with Malcolm Kenyatta and whomever ends up being the AG nominee (hopefully not DePasquale) would be pretty impressive for the PA Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

2019: 80.33-19.41
2015: 85.1-13.2
2011: 74.8-21.7
2007: 83.4-17.3

Yep, I think it will probably be close to 2019s, but not as high as 2007/2015 for Dems. David Oh is probably way weaker than even I expected him to be though. He's even more of a nonfactor than you'd expect.

[Not Me, Us]

Has anyone announced for treasurer? It seems like Malcolm Kenyatta has the Auditor General primary in the bag, the Attorney General race might be the only interesting one this time.

ask and you shall receive!

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1706641859076911476

Never heard of the guy, but Stacy Garrity is completely batsh** and he has really sick name, so endorsed!

[Duke of York]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

2019: 80.33-19.41
2015: 85.1-13.2
2011: 74.8-21.7
2007: 83.4-17.3

Yep, I think it will probably be close to 2019s, but not as high as 2007/2015 for Dems. David Oh is probably way weaker than even I expected him to be though. He's even more of a nonfactor than you'd expect.

2019 margin seems highly likely. What makes you say hes's a non factor? Its a shame most of the city council elections are uncontested. no one should run unopposed in general election.

[wbrocks67]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

2019: 80.33-19.41
2015: 85.1-13.2
2011: 74.8-21.7
2007: 83.4-17.3

Yep, I think it will probably be close to 2019s, but not as high as 2007/2015 for Dems. David Oh is probably way weaker than even I expected him to be though. He's even more of a nonfactor than you'd expect.

2019 margin seems highly likely. What makes you say hes's a non factor? Its a shame most of the city council elections are uncontested. no one should run unopposed in general election.

He just hasn't gained steam. It's not like a Krasner or Adams situation. Parker would be the first female mayor so she already has an extra boost, and she also is basically fine with both liberal and moderate voters at this point. Oh has no real constituency to get himself above the usual 15-18% the GOP gets imo.

[Duke of York]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

2019: 80.33-19.41
2015: 85.1-13.2
2011: 74.8-21.7
2007: 83.4-17.3

Yep, I think it will probably be close to 2019s, but not as high as 2007/2015 for Dems. David Oh is probably way weaker than even I expected him to be though. He's even more of a nonfactor than you'd expect.

2019 margin seems highly likely. What makes you say hes's a non factor? Its a shame most of the city council elections are uncontested. no one should run unopposed in general election.

He just hasn't gained steam. It's not like a Krasner or Adams situation. Parker would be the first female mayor so she already has an extra boost, and she also is basically fine with both liberal and moderate voters at this point. Oh has no real constituency to get himself above the usual 15-18% the GOP gets imo.

make sense. Why were most of the city council elections left uncontested though?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RyanDeto/status/1707420556260266092?t=E-gs-a3DM5qnfU3S6IvjnQ...

This poll includes a question on the Supreme Court election.

[windjammer]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

I feel confident their luck is going to change. Republicans’ recent luck in these races is all because of ancestral GOP support in the Philly suburban counties and I don’t see that holding up post-Dobbs. Also, mayoral race turnout should help them.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

Not really true last year. They did a hell of a job given the environment.

[Duke of York]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

Not really true last year. They did a hell of a job given the environment.

didn't they gain a seat on the superior court?

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

Not really true last year. They did a hell of a job given the environment.

didn't they gain a seat on the superior court?

Yep! And McLaughlin was <1% from winning the Supreme Court race too.

[Duke of York]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

Not really true last year. They did a hell of a job given the environment.

didn't they gain a seat on the superior court?

Yep! And McLaughlin was <1% from winning the Supreme Court race too.

It was actually the Commonwealth Court where they gained a seat.

[wbrocks67]

More Dem investment in PASC:

https://twitter.com/sophie_tatum/status/1709561379902894589

[Duke of York]

More Dem investment in PASC:

https://twitter.com/sophie_tatum/status/1709561379902894589

wonderful to see all elections being taken seriously especially elected courts.

[wbrocks67]

Will try and update this each day; not a whole lot returned yet and most of the big D areas (Allegheny, Philly, etc. have only reported a few ballots returned)

PA VBM update

Total requested: 890,919
Dem requested: 641,392 (72.0%)
Rep requested: 177,499 (19.9%)

Total returned: 17,515
Dem returned: 11,629 (66.4%)
Rep returned: 4,728 (27.0%)

--
2022:
1.44M requested (985K Dem, 303K Rep)

1.18M returned
Dems 819K (69.2%)
Reps 252K (21.3%)

[wbrocks67]

Ballots Requested: 900,402
Dems: 647,629 (71.9%)
Reps: 179,807 (20.0%)

Ballots Returned: 24,422
Dems: 16,575 (67.9%)
Reps: 6,308 (25.8%)

Dem return rate: 2.6%
Rep return rate: 3.5%

Officially hit 900K requested. Still not much reporting from most of the more Dem areas though (Philly, Montco, Bucks, Delaware, Allegheny, etc.)

[Mr.Phips]

More Dem investment in PASC:

https://twitter.com/sophie_tatum/status/1709561379902894589

This is important for Dems since holding this seat likely means they control the Supreme Court during the 2031 redistricting.  They should also be pushing to get independent redistricting on the ballot before 2031 just in case.

[Duke of York]

More Dem investment in PASC:

https://twitter.com/sophie_tatum/status/1709561379902894589

This is important for Dems since holding this seat likely means they control the Supreme Court during the 2031 redistricting.  They should also be pushing to get independent redistricting on the ballot before 2031 just in case.

Pennsylvania does not have citizen initiated referendums.

[Mr.Phips]

More Dem investment in PASC:

https://twitter.com/sophie_tatum/status/1709561379902894589

This is important for Dems since holding this seat likely means they control the Supreme Court during the 2031 redistricting.  They should also be pushing to get independent redistricting on the ballot before 2031 just in case.

Pennsylvania does not have citizen initiated referendums.

The legislature can pass it in two consecutive sessions and put it on the ballot. 

[wbrocks67]

Ballots requested: 904,801
Dems: 650,580 (71.9%)
Reps: 180,837 (20.0%)

Ballots returned: 28,347
Dems: 19,395 (68.4%)
Reps: 7,195 (25.4%)

Dem return rate: 3.0%
Rep return rate: 4.0%

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots requested: 916,280
Dem: 658,632 (71.9%)
Rep: 183,178 (20.0%)

Total ballots returned: 52,105
Dem: 36,671 (70.4%)
Rep: 12,074 (23.2%)

Dem return rate: 5.6%
Rep return rate: 6.6%

[Duke of York]

Total ballots requested: 916,280
Dem: 658,632 (71.9%)
Rep: 183,178 (20.0%)

Total ballots returned: 52,105
Dem: 36,671 (70.4%)
Rep: 12,074 (23.2%)

Dem return rate: 5.6%
Rep return rate: 6.6%

How can their be such a massive lead for Democrats and yet Republicans lead the return rate by about one percent

[cg41386]

Total ballots requested: 916,280
Dem: 658,632 (71.9%)
Rep: 183,178 (20.0%)

Total ballots returned: 52,105
Dem: 36,671 (70.4%)
Rep: 12,074 (23.2%)

Dem return rate: 5.6%
Rep return rate: 6.6%

How can their be such a massive lead for Democrats and yet Republicans lead the return rate by about one percent

Because fewer Republicans requested?