Is Dom, Is Good: NSW State Election (March 25)

[GoTfan]

The year is 2023, the People’s Republic of Australia under the guidance of Chairman Albanese has chased the Liberal Party out of mainland Australia, fleeing to the national redoubt of Tasmania. This signalled the start of a decades long border dispute and skirmishes over the Bass Strait.

With good fortune, Chairman Albanese will be able to further pursue the enemies of Australia with a ROBUST federal ICAC.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dom is resigning as Liberal leader.
Really liking his speech.
I loved the remark about his kids "who should be asleep". lol.

[TheTide]

As is often the case, the first few percent of the vote counted gave a good indication of the overall result.

[VPH]

The pro-marijuana legalization party got around 10% of first preferences in a few seats lol

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The pro-marijuana legalization party got around 10% of first preferences in a few seats lol

And they look pretty set to win an upper house seat. Don’t get your hopes up though, if you think *NSW Labor* would legalise weed… lmao.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The pro-marijuana legalization party got around 10% of first preferences in a few seats lol

Shows what most Australian's think of politics.

[VPH]

The pro-marijuana legalization party got around 10% of first preferences in a few seats lol

And they look pretty set to win an upper house seat. Don’t get your hopes up though, if you think *NSW Labor* would legalise weed… lmao.

Not too aware of the nuances here--is NSW Labor more right-leaning as far as Labor goes?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

only thing I had heard about NSW politics recently is the entire friendlyjordies case lol

[Хahar 🤔]

There’s a couple of winnable regional seats where Labor aren’t getting much of a swing, but there’s others where they’ve gotten a massive one, and Sydney is across the board good for Labor (except some of Labour’s safe Western Sydney seats, where a big swing would have been wasted anyways).

Looks like we have really strong anti-government swings in Sydney (and this seems to be the case all across the city, meaning that you can't have the narrative of effete coastal elites contrasted to real Aussie battlers) but much less in non-metropolitan seats. In particular, no National seat other than Monaro had a significant swing to Labor. I'm not sure if there was anything in particular during the campaign that pointed to this result.

[morgieb]

There’s a couple of winnable regional seats where Labor aren’t getting much of a swing, but there’s others where they’ve gotten a massive one, and Sydney is across the board good for Labor (except some of Labour’s safe Western Sydney seats, where a big swing would have been wasted anyways).

Looks like we have really strong anti-government swings in Sydney (and this seems to be the case all across the city, meaning that you can't have the narrative of effete coastal elites contrasted to real Aussie battlers) but much less in non-metropolitan seats. In particular, no National seat other than Monaro had a significant swing to Labor. I'm not sure if there was anything in particular during the campaign that pointed to this result.

I think it's just a case of small town Australia sticking to party loyalty. I've heard talk that the Coalition message is still playing well in small towns, but metropolitan areas are increasing young and alienated by the Coalition. What's more interesting is that the medium-sized cities did swing heavily Labor too (despite the fact that in most of them they didn't have all that many votes to gain)....

[morgieb]

The pro-marijuana legalization party got around 10% of first preferences in a few seats lol

And they look pretty set to win an upper house seat. Don’t get your hopes up though, if you think *NSW Labor* would legalise weed… lmao.

Not too aware of the nuances here--is NSW Labor more right-leaning as far as Labor goes?

I think it's the only state where the Right still has control, yeah. I'm not actually sure they are the most conservative Labor branch (I reckon that's South Australia), but it's probably the most capital C centrist branch, so to speak.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There’s a couple of winnable regional seats where Labor aren’t getting much of a swing, but there’s others where they’ve gotten a massive one, and Sydney is across the board good for Labor (except some of Labour’s safe Western Sydney seats, where a big swing would have been wasted anyways).

Looks like we have really strong anti-government swings in Sydney (and this seems to be the case all across the city, meaning that you can't have the narrative of effete coastal elites contrasted to real Aussie battlers) but much less in non-metropolitan seats. In particular, no National seat other than Monaro had a significant swing to Labor. I'm not sure if there was anything in particular during the campaign that pointed to this result.

I think it's just a case of small town Australia sticking to party loyalty. I've heard talk that the Coalition message is still playing well in small towns, but metropolitan areas are increasing young and alienated by the Coalition. What's more interesting is that the medium-sized cities did swing heavily Labor too (despite the fact that in most of them they didn't have all that many votes to gain)....

What medium-sized cities are you speaking of here?

[morgieb]

There’s a couple of winnable regional seats where Labor aren’t getting much of a swing, but there’s others where they’ve gotten a massive one, and Sydney is across the board good for Labor (except some of Labour’s safe Western Sydney seats, where a big swing would have been wasted anyways).

Looks like we have really strong anti-government swings in Sydney (and this seems to be the case all across the city, meaning that you can't have the narrative of effete coastal elites contrasted to real Aussie battlers) but much less in non-metropolitan seats. In particular, no National seat other than Monaro had a significant swing to Labor. I'm not sure if there was anything in particular during the campaign that pointed to this result.

I think it's just a case of small town Australia sticking to party loyalty. I've heard talk that the Coalition message is still playing well in small towns, but metropolitan areas are increasing young and alienated by the Coalition. What's more interesting is that the medium-sized cities did swing heavily Labor too (despite the fact that in most of them they didn't have all that many votes to gain)....

What medium-sized cities are you speaking of here?

Newcastle, Central Coast (if it counts as a city) and Wollongong.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There’s a couple of winnable regional seats where Labor aren’t getting much of a swing, but there’s others where they’ve gotten a massive one, and Sydney is across the board good for Labor (except some of Labour’s safe Western Sydney seats, where a big swing would have been wasted anyways).

Looks like we have really strong anti-government swings in Sydney (and this seems to be the case all across the city, meaning that you can't have the narrative of effete coastal elites contrasted to real Aussie battlers) but much less in non-metropolitan seats. In particular, no National seat other than Monaro had a significant swing to Labor. I'm not sure if there was anything in particular during the campaign that pointed to this result.

I think it's just a case of small town Australia sticking to party loyalty. I've heard talk that the Coalition message is still playing well in small towns, but metropolitan areas are increasing young and alienated by the Coalition. What's more interesting is that the medium-sized cities did swing heavily Labor too (despite the fact that in most of them they didn't have all that many votes to gain)....

What medium-sized cities are you speaking of here?

Newcastle, Central Coast (if it counts as a city) and Wollongong.

Ah. I see, Thanks.

[morgieb]

In doubt seats as things stand:

Drummoyne (Lib v ALP)
Goulburn (ALP v Lib)
Kiama (ALP v Ind/Lib)
Holsworthy (ALP v Lib)
Miranda (Lib v ALP)
Oatley (ALP v Lib)
Ryde (ALP v Lib)
Terrigal (ALP v Lib)
Pittwater (Ind v Lib)
Willoughby (Ind v Lib)
Wollondilly (Ind v Lib)

Balmain, Upper Hunter and Winston Hills are in "academic" doubt but the leading party should win all three.

Out of the ALP/Lib seats:

Drummoyne - Liberals up by 692 votes, but less than 50% counted and a number of booths lack 2PP data. It seems like Labor probably won the booths that lack 2PP data, but we don't know until it's counted. Regardless, I think Labor are too far back to win though I can see this tightening.

Goulburn - Liberals up by 149 votes with 51.2% counted. Again Labor did well in some of the booths that lack 2PP data so I think Labor might be ahead once those booths are counted. Already a number of postals in too. What could hurt Labor is that the Goulburn prepolls haven't been counted and Labor underperformed in Goulburn this time, so booth matching might not give the desired result. I think out of all the Labor "projected" aheads, this one is the most dubious.

Holsworthy - Liberals up by 366 votes with 52.7% counted. What booths lack 2PP data seems a wash. However Labor did well in prepolls last time and the current booth swing suggest that Labor win by the end. Whether that holds, we'll wait and see. Will be close.

Kiama - Labor up by 622 votes but with only 41.3% counted, and there are a number of booths that Ward did well in that lack 2PP data. So right now he might be ahead. However, it seems like what's left in the postcount is probably Labor-friendly and the lead seems significant. Again, this looks close but Labor might have a slight advantage.

Miranda - Labor up by 150 votes with 52.2% counted. The problem for Labor is that the booths that lack 2PP data was quite Liberal favourable, and unlike a lot of other seats there's no postals in that vote count. I don't think this will pan out in Labor's favour.

Oatley - Liberals up by 254 votes with 61.7% counted. This is a pretty advanced count with a number of postals and prepolls already added. The big advantage Labor have is that they performed really well on absents here last time. Still, because of the redistribution this is probably too close to call.

Ryde - Labor up by 412 votes with 57.9% counted. Another fairly advanced count, and one where I think the Liberals are gonna struggle to catch up unless prepolls are far more Liberal leaning than I expect. I have heard online that this seat might've been the victim of a late swing due to some Chinese-specific circumstances, but until further prepolls come through we don't know.

Terrigal - Labor up by 736 votes with 57.2% counted. There are a couple of booths that lack 2PP data that might help the Liberals, but it won't be by a lot. One thing that could cause worry is that the margin lacks postals, and especially in a seat that wasn't seen as much of a chance for most of the campaign it could swing aggressively Liberal, but that margin is pretty large and I think it'll be hard to dislodge.

Pittwater - Scruby (the Teal Independent) up by 27 votes with 57.6% counted. That lead will probably increase too as the booths that don't have a 2PP calculated seem pro-Scruby, and there are a number of postals already counted. Usually Independents struggle in the late count but I think her position actually is pretty good.

Willoughby - Liberals up by 396 votes with 53.7% counted. That is a reasonably big lead especially against an Independent, but it does seem like Penn is holding up OK on the post-count so far. Still, I'm not sure there's enough oddities to get her over the line in the prepolls.

Wollondilly - Hannan (the Independent) up by 702 votes with 50.6% counted. There are some biggish booths that don't have a 2PP count yet, but I think these are a wash. It is a bit of an issue for Hannan that there's not much of a post-count done yet, but she seems far enough ahead that it'll take some weird trends on the post-count to hurt her.

So:

Likely Labor - Terrigal, Ryde
Lean Labor - Kiama
Toss-up - Goulburn, Holsworthy, Oatley
Likely Liberal - Drummoyne, Miranda, Willoughby
Lean Independent - Pittwater, Wollondilly

From that I guess Labor get to 49 seats. I think it's pretty unlikely they miss a majority even if it's theoretically plausible.

[morgieb]

In doubt seats as things stand:

Drummoyne (Lib v ALP)
Goulburn (ALP v Lib)
Kiama (ALP v Ind/Lib)
Holsworthy (ALP v Lib)
Miranda (Lib v ALP)
Oatley (ALP v Lib)
Ryde (ALP v Lib)
Terrigal (ALP v Lib)
Pittwater (Ind v Lib)
Willoughby (Ind v Lib)
Wollondilly (Ind v Lib)

Balmain, Upper Hunter and Winston Hills are in "academic" doubt but the leading party should win all three.

Out of the ALP/Lib seats:

Drummoyne - Liberals up by 692 votes, but less than 50% counted and a number of booths lack 2PP data. It seems like Labor probably won the booths that lack 2PP data, but we don't know until it's counted. Regardless, I think Labor are too far back to win though I can see this tightening.

Goulburn - Liberals up by 149 votes with 51.2% counted. Again Labor did well in some of the booths that lack 2PP data so I think Labor might be ahead once those booths are counted. Already a number of postals in too. What could hurt Labor is that the Goulburn prepolls haven't been counted and Labor underperformed in Goulburn this time, so booth matching might not give the desired result. I think out of all the Labor "projected" aheads, this one is the most dubious.

Holsworthy - Liberals up by 366 votes with 52.7% counted. What booths lack 2PP data seems a wash. However Labor did well in prepolls last time and the current booth swing suggest that Labor win by the end. Whether that holds, we'll wait and see. Will be close.

Kiama - Labor up by 622 votes but with only 41.3% counted, and there are a number of booths that Ward did well in that lack 2PP data. So right now he might be ahead. However, it seems like what's left in the postcount is probably Labor-friendly and the lead seems significant. Again, this looks close but Labor might have a slight advantage.

Miranda - Labor up by 150 votes with 52.2% counted. The problem for Labor is that the booths that lack 2PP data was quite Liberal favourable, and unlike a lot of other seats there's no postals in that vote count. I don't think this will pan out in Labor's favour.

Oatley - Liberals up by 254 votes with 61.7% counted. This is a pretty advanced count with a number of postals and prepolls already added. The big advantage Labor have is that they performed really well on absents here last time. Still, because of the redistribution this is probably too close to call.

Ryde - Labor up by 412 votes with 57.9% counted. Another fairly advanced count, and one where I think the Liberals are gonna struggle to catch up unless prepolls are far more Liberal leaning than I expect. I have heard online that this seat might've been the victim of a late swing due to some Chinese-specific circumstances, but until further prepolls come through we don't know.

Terrigal - Labor up by 736 votes with 57.2% counted. There are a couple of booths that lack 2PP data that might help the Liberals, but it won't be by a lot. One thing that could cause worry is that the margin lacks postals, and especially in a seat that wasn't seen as much of a chance for most of the campaign it could swing aggressively Liberal, but that margin is pretty large and I think it'll be hard to dislodge.

Pittwater - Scruby (the Teal Independent) up by 27 votes with 57.6% counted. That lead will probably increase too as the booths that don't have a 2PP calculated seem pro-Scruby, and there are a number of postals already counted. Usually Independents struggle in the late count but I think her position actually is pretty good.

Willoughby - Liberals up by 396 votes with 53.7% counted. That is a reasonably big lead especially against an Independent, but it does seem like Penn is holding up OK on the post-count so far. Still, I'm not sure there's enough oddities to get her over the line in the prepolls.

Wollondilly - Hannan (the Independent) up by 702 votes with 50.6% counted. There are some biggish booths that don't have a 2PP count yet, but I think these are a wash. It is a bit of an issue for Hannan that there's not much of a post-count done yet, but she seems far enough ahead that it'll take some weird trends on the post-count to hurt her.

So:

Likely Labor - Terrigal, Ryde
Lean Labor - Kiama
Toss-up - Goulburn, Holsworthy, Oatley
Likely Liberal - Drummoyne, Miranda, Willoughby
Lean Independent - Pittwater, Wollondilly

From that I guess Labor get to 49 seats. I think it's pretty unlikely they miss a majority even if it's theoretically plausible.

Well, a lot of that went wrong!

I honestly can't remember a day where the postcount was so pro one party. Even in the 2016 federal and the 2018 Victorian election where it seemed the Liberals made decent post-election gains wasn't like this. Now I'll say:

Lean Labor - Ryde
Toss-up - Terrigal, Kiama, Holsworthy, Pittwater
Likely Liberal - Goulburn, Oatley, Drummoyne, Miranda

(Willoughby and Wollondilly have both been called for the Liberals and Judy Hannan respectively).

So Labor averages out to 47 seats, but that number looks pretty fragile. Have to say, 45 seats on a 54/46 2PP feels rough! If all seats had to vote for one of the two majors it would've ended up with a 50-45 result if Labor lose all the in doubt seats, which doesn't really fit the election result at all. Compare to Victoria, for example.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The prepolls having been shockingly good for the Coalition. And there's still masses of postals to come!

[DL]

I have a somewhat "constitutional" question that relates to the NSW election. I understand that NSW has fixed elections every five years and I also read that the only way the government can fall is if there is a "constructive vote of non-confidence" in which case a new government is formed for the rest of the term. So what would happen if hypothetically you had a Labor minority that put out a Throne Speech or a Budget and it was voted down over and over again? Would you then have a government last until the end of its term that was unable to pass a budget or any other major legislation? What would happen next?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I have a somewhat "constitutional" question that relates to the NSW election. I understand that NSW has fixed elections every five years and I also read that the only way the government can fall is if there is a "constructive vote of non-confidence" in which case a new government is formed for the rest of the term. So what would happen if hypothetically you had a Labor minority that put out a Throne Speech or a Budget and it was voted down over and over again? Would you then have a government last until the end of its term that was unable to pass a budget or any other major legislation? What would happen next?

24B Dissolution of Legislative Assembly during 4 year term
(1) The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved by the Governor by proclamation, but only in the circumstances authorised by this section.
(2) The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved if--
(a) a motion of no confidence in the Government is passed by the Legislative Assembly (being a motion of which not less than 3 clear days' notice has been given in the Legislative Assembly), and
(b) during the period commencing on the passage of the motion of no confidence and ending 8 clear days thereafter, the Legislative Assembly has not passed a motion of confidence in the then Government.
After the motion of no confidence is passed, the Legislative Assembly may not be prorogued before the end of that 8-day period and may not be adjourned for a period extending beyond that 8-day period, unless the motion of confidence has been passed.
(3) The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved if it--
(a) rejects a Bill which appropriates revenue or moneys for the ordinary annual services of the Government, or
(b) fails to pass such a Bill before the time that the Governor considers that the appropriation is required.
This subsection does not apply to a Bill which appropriates revenue or moneys for the Legislature only.
(4) The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved within 2 months before the Assembly is due to expire if the general election would otherwise be required to be held during the same period as a Commonwealth election, during a holiday period or at any other inconvenient time.
(5) This section does not prevent the Governor from dissolving the Legislative Assembly in circumstances other than those specified in subsections (2)-(4), despite any advice of the Premier or Executive Council, if the Governor could do so in accordance with established constitutional conventions.
(6) When deciding whether the Legislative Assembly should be dissolved in accordance with this section, the Governor is to consider whether a viable alternative Government can be formed without a dissolution and, in so doing, is to have regard to any motion passed by the Legislative Assembly expressing confidence in an alternative Government in which a named person would be Premier.


tl;dr we don't have constructive confidence votes, that would go against westminster conventions.

[Epaminondas]

Isn't Ryde still on track to be won by Labour? That would bring them to 46.

Is the shocking turnaround turnaround due to voting pattern among certain demographics? (e.g. old people voting early for the Coalition)

Almost all the nail-biters seem to have been won by the losing party, just like in the 2022 federal election. Dreadful luck.

[JimJamUK]

Is the shocking turnaround turnaround due to voting pattern among certain demographics? (e.g. old people voting early for the Coalition)

Almost all the nail-biters seem to have been won by the losing party, just like in the 2022 federal election. Dreadful luck.

Hard to say. Labor are getting an above average swing on election day, about average on postals, but below average on pre-polls. Postals will have the oldest demographics and like pre-polls are largely a form of early voting so you would think they’d move in tandem, but tbf postals swung more at the federal election so maybe not. A big issue seems to be that the models outlets are producing seem to not have fully accounted for the increase in pre-polls and postals, which is a problem when they remain Liberal leaning. For example, if there was a 10% swing among all 3 voting methods, there would in total be a less than 10% swing due to the Labor leaning election day votes being a smaller proportion and the Liberal leaning pre-polls and postals being a larger proportion of the vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Almost all the nail-biters seem to have been won by the losing party, just like in the 2022 federal election. Dreadful luck.

So often the case when governments flip. Australian incumbent govts usually get a more favourable vote/swing distribution at the polls for various reasons.

[DL]

What happens in Australia when a party forms government based on having a majority in the lower house - but another party controls the upper legislative council and it refuses to pass any legislation?

[Хahar 🤔]

What happens in Australia when a party forms government based on having a majority in the lower house - but another party controls the upper legislative council and it refuses to pass any legislation?

Realistically this is not an issue. The last Australian elected government to face an opposition majority in the upper house was the Labor government elected in Victoria in 1999, but at the time Victoria elected its upper house in single-member constituencies, which is no longer the case. Outside Victoria, in 1989 the Labor government of Western Australia was reelected with a Coalition majority in the upper house, but that was under a system with significant rural malapportionment that is no longer in effect.

The last time that the main opposition party in an Australian lower house held at least 50% of the seats in the upper house under a system similar to one used today was in South Australia in 1982, when the Liberal Party formed the opposition but held exactly 50% of seats in the upper house. In that election, 89% of votes cast for the upper house were cast for one of the two major parties. That is difficult to imagine now. In general this scenario is not really worth considering.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What happens in Australia when a party forms government based on having a majority in the lower house - but another party controls the upper legislative council and it refuses to pass any legislation?

Realistically this is not an issue. The last Australian elected government to face an opposition majority in the upper house was the Labor government elected in Victoria in 1999, but at the time Victoria elected its upper house in single-member constituencies, which is no longer the case. Outside Victoria, in 1989 the Labor government of Western Australia was reelected with a Coalition majority in the upper house, but that was under a system with significant rural malapportionment that is no longer in effect.

The last time that the main opposition party in an Australian lower house held at least 50% of the seats in the upper house under a system similar to one used today was in South Australia in 1982, when the Liberal Party formed the opposition but held exactly 50% of seats in the upper house. In that election, 89% of votes cast for the upper house were cast for one of the two major parties. That is difficult to imagine now. In general this scenario is not really worth considering.

And if such an unlikely hypothetical did eventuate - both parties informally agreed to never block supply after the tumultuous events of '75.