2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 30, 2024, 12:42:52 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 34
Author Topic: 2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th  (Read 31880 times)
xelas81
Rookie
**
Posts: 222
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: March 10, 2023, 10:00:00 AM »

In a dovish move, ROC announces the reopening of direct flights with Mainland China which were shut down at the beginning of COVID.  The PRC indicated earlier in 2022 that they were ready for the resumption of direct flights but were turned down by DPP due to their need to set the narrative in the 2022 local elections.  What is interesting is that ROC announced this on the same day Xi was re-elected as PRC Prez for his third term.  This is clearly not a coincidence and along with DPP Prez Tsai telling McCarthy not to visit ROC, it seems that DPP Prez Tsai is focused on her legacy.  It is also likely that in her assessment that rising tensions with PRC might not work to the DPP advantage in 2024 elections unlikely 2020.
From what I understand, although tourism from mainlanders helped Taiwanese economy, average Taiwanese didn't like interacting with mainlander tourists. Is this true?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: March 10, 2023, 03:51:42 PM »

In a dovish move, ROC announces the reopening of direct flights with Mainland China which were shut down at the beginning of COVID.  The PRC indicated earlier in 2022 that they were ready for the resumption of direct flights but were turned down by DPP due to their need to set the narrative in the 2022 local elections.  What is interesting is that ROC announced this on the same day Xi was re-elected as PRC Prez for his third term.  This is clearly not a coincidence and along with DPP Prez Tsai telling McCarthy not to visit ROC, it seems that DPP Prez Tsai is focused on her legacy.  It is also likely that in her assessment that rising tensions with PRC might not work to the DPP advantage in 2024 elections unlikely 2020.
From what I understand, although tourism from mainlanders helped Taiwanese economy, average Taiwanese didn't like interacting with mainlander tourists. Is this true?

Maybe a bit when the first large wave of tourists showed up in 2009.  I do not think this is much of a problem these days.  Understand that over 1 million people from ROC work and live (at least part-time) on the Mainland so the level of interactions was quite large, especially since 2009.  I think this is a problem for Mainland tourists in Japan where they are loved for their money but hated for how they behave.  My impression is this has gotten better this past decade but for sure a large number of people in Japan (not associated with the tourist or retail industry of course) would prefer if the Mailand Chinese tourist are not there.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: March 11, 2023, 03:25:17 PM »

Latest TVBS Prez election polls (change from Jan)

Lai gaining ground as KMT dithers on who their candidate is.

3-way
KMT Hou   32 (-2)
DPP Lai     28 (+3)
TPP Ko      21 (--)

KMT Guo   28 (-6)
DPP Lai     28 (+3)
TPP Ko      19 (-1)

2-way
KMT Hou   46 (-5)
DPP Lai     34 (+2)

KMT Guo   40 (-7)
DPP Lai     37 (+3)
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,334
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: March 11, 2023, 07:01:36 PM »

Fingers crossed for Lai.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: March 12, 2023, 05:27:47 AM »
« Edited: March 12, 2023, 05:56:33 AM by jaichind »

Some initial predictions on the legislative race.

First I am going with the most likely Prez scenario, a close 3-way race between KMT Hou vs DPP Lai vs TPP Ko with a narrow KMT Hou victory.    In such a case Ko and TPP will underperform.  My rule of thumb is that if it is a close race, then TPP Ko will be either below 10% or above 20%.  I think the former is much more likely will drag down the TPP PR vote.   Of course, the TPP PR vote is still much better off with TPP Ko running than not.

PR (34)                         KMT       DPP      TPP      NPP
                                     14          12         6          2

District(73)                   KMT+     DPP

Special municipalities
Taipei City (臺北市)           7            1 <- DPP only retains Taipei 2nd
New Taipei City (新北市)    8            4 <- KMT Hou will lead to KMT overperformance
Taoyuan City (桃園市)       6            0 <- a couple will be very close
Taichung City(臺中市)        6            2 <- most of them will be very close
Tainan City (臺南市)          0            6
Kaohsiung City (高雄市)     1            7 <- KMT should be able to flip back Kaohsiung 3rd

Taiwan Province
Keelung City (基隆市)        1            0
Hsinchu City(新竹市)         1            0 <- will be a fun 3-way or 4-way battle again
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)   2             0
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2            0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  3            1  <- all 4 might end up close
Nanto County(南投縣)        2            0  <- I assume KMT can flip back Nanto 2nd
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        1            1 <- KMT Chang faction will make their mark
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0            1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0            2
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0            2
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0            1 <- KMT could spring a surprise but fundamentals too strong
Penghu County(澎湖縣)       1           0  <- lot of local factors at play but for now KMT flip
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1            0
Taidong County(臺東縣)      1            0 <- local factors might allow DPP to hold this seat

Fujian Province
Kinmen County(金門縣)      1            0
Lianjiang County(連江縣)   1             0
 
Total District                   45           28

                                    KMT+        DPP
Aborigine seats(6)      
Plains                             2              1  <- DPP retains their seat
Mountains                       2              1  <- DPP retains their seat
  
Total Aborigine                4               2

                                 KMT+        DPP       TPP       NPP
Total                             63           42          6          2

I was hoping the KMT can flip back one of the Aborigine seats but I think the name recognition strength of the DPP incumbents will be too much to flip back.

On the PR side, DPP Lai being Deep Green will create a massive dilemma for the marginal Deep Green voter to choose between DPP NPP and TSP.  In 2016 and 2020 with DPP Tsai being clearly Light Green all Deep Green voters know they can safely vote for NPP since there will be many of them that will do so and avoid vote wastage. This time NPP's image is more anti-DPP and less Deep Green so there will be a shift of NPP PR vote back to DPP.   There will also be more TPP-NPP marginal vote voters.  In the end, I think NPP makes it.  TSP will do well but miss the 5% threshold which leads to a lot of Pan-Green vote wastage on the PR seat side.  But Pan-Green avoids the nightmare scenario where both TSP and NPP both come close to but miss the 5% threshold.  I think one of the two will make it and it is more likely to be NPP.  

Places to watch will be Taichung City(臺中市) and Changhua County(彰化縣).  Very small changes in vote share will shift a lot of seats one way or another.  

If the Prez election were to be a narrow Lai victory I figure you can shift around 10 seats from the KMT to the DPP.  All in all Lai's Southern background means DPP will sweep the South but underperform in the North.  This is a flip from 2016 and 2020 where DPP Tsai had a lot of Northern appeal which helped DPP down-ballot there.

The nature of the legislative race is fairly rigged against the DPP.  The only way DPP gets to a majority is a big DPP Prez-level blowout victory like in 2016 and 2020.

So my initial projection has
Narrow KMT Hou victory -> Narrow to significant KMT majority
Narrow DPP Lai victory -> Hung legislature with KMT and DPP neck-to-neck on which is the larger party.  This means Lai will face an opposition majority unless he wins a blowout victory at the Prez level.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: March 12, 2023, 06:09:35 AM »
« Edited: March 12, 2023, 06:23:26 AM by jaichind »

PFP party leader 宋楚瑜(James Soong), age 81,  gave a press conference that does not seem to rule out him running for Prez again (after running in 2000 2004 (as VP) 2012 2016, and 2020).  He came out attacking DPP and seem to shift more toward a Deep Blue position.  In 2000 and 2004 his image was clearly Deep Blue while in 2012 2016 and 2020, his image was more Light Blue.



To give him the credit he looks and acted in this press conference like someone in their 60s.  The contrast between him and Biden is pretty stark where he actually looked like he is a generation younger than Biden.  There seems no physical or mental health argument against Soong running if he wants to run.

Anyway, with PFP not crossing 5% in the 2020 PR vote Soong will need to organize a petition campaign to get himself on the ballot and I do not think PFP will have the organization to pull that off as opposed to 2012.  Still, Soong's appearance does make it clear that his endorsement might be up for grabs and worth having.  Soong is close to Ko and many expect him to endorse Ko if TPP Ko runs.  On the other hand, Soong's Deep Blue message today indicates he might endorse the KMT as a way to defeat DPP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: March 12, 2023, 10:44:02 AM »

https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/missing-26-year-old-taiwanese-soldier-rescued-by-chinese-authorities-while-attempting-to-swim-to-mainland-china/

"Missing 26-year-old Taiwanese soldier rescued by Chinese authorities while attempting to swim to Mainland China"

It seems this ROC armed forces soldier based in Kinmen County(金門縣) had relationship problems and was in debt and decided to "defect" to the PRC.  The whole thing is a farce.  If he really wanted to defect he could have easily gone on a vacation to the Mainland and then just stay there as over a million people from ROC have done.  This seems like a spur-of-the-moment thing.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: March 13, 2023, 11:21:48 AM »

TPP Ko has been in USA for a while..  It seems that he did not really get to meet anyone with consequence in the USA government.  It seems the USA government position is that they see Ko as at best a spoiler in 2024 and is not taking him seriously.  At this stage TPP Ko will run to help the TPP PR vote.  If so it would be sort like the 2012 PFP Soong campaign which was never to win but to help PFP PR vote which in that sense it worked.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: March 13, 2023, 11:27:55 AM »

KMT Vice chairperson 連勝文(Sean Lien) came out and said that the KMT was open to KMT-TPP alliance in some legislative district elections.  連勝文(Sean Lien) is the son of former KMT VP as well as 2000 and 2004 KMT candidate for Prez.  連勝文(Sean Lien) has an interesting relationship with TPP leader Ko  In 2010 elections 連勝文(Sean Lien) was shot the night before the election and then Deep Green doctor Ko saved 連勝文(Sean Lien)'s life and vouched that the shooting was for certain not staged.  連勝文(Sean Lien) then ran against DPP backed Ko in 2014 for Taipei mayor as the KMT candidate and lost in a landslide in a bitter election.

The fact the KMT had 連勝文(Sean Lien) come out with this proposal shows that the are fairly sincere about their proposal.  I think TPP will be fairly negative on this.  Any such tactical alliance will only reduce TPP's image as an independent party and hurt the TPP PR vote which must be TPP Ko's main goal. 
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,334
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: March 14, 2023, 03:25:05 AM »

Jaichind, if the current state of the race was a US-style 538 0/100 thing what would each party be at? Would it be something like 70% chance of a KMT win and 30% of a DPP win? Or something else?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: March 14, 2023, 03:28:51 AM »

Jaichind, if the current state of the race was a US-style 538 0/100 thing what would each party be at? Would it be something like 70% chance of a KMT win and 30% of a DPP win? Or something else?

I would say KMT 55 DPP 45.  DPP is being underestimated right now in my view.  There is a clear path for the DPP to become unified while the anti-DPP camp will likely see a KMT-TPP split plus the Guo factor and more some anti-Hou elements in the KMT.  On the other than if I would to rate largest party in legislature I would say it is KMT 75 DPP 25 since it is clear the anti-DPP base will be larger in this election and will that will give the KMT the edge in legislative elections.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: March 14, 2023, 06:31:38 PM »

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semiconductor-factories-avoid-china-trump-adviser-2023-3

"US would destroy Taiwan's semiconductor factories rather than letting them fall into China's hands, a former national security advisor says"

Great propaganda piece for the KMT narrative on DPP turning ROC over to the USA to become just like Ukraine and be destroyed as collateral damage.  The pro-PRC factions in the KMT have been using this as a talking for a while and this is the first confirmation that this might be USA's plan from a USA source.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: March 15, 2023, 06:37:58 AM »

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/honduras-president-says-govt-seek-official-relations-with-china-2023-03-14/

"Honduras to seek China relations, pressuring Taiwan ahead of US trip"

Honduras dumps ROC for PRC.  During 2008-2016 PRC and ROC had a de facto diplomatic truce where neither side went after any country that had relations with the other.  All that went way in 2016 when the DPP regime took over on ROC and the truce ended.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: March 15, 2023, 10:01:51 AM »

Lai registers to be a DPP candidate for Prez in 2024.  Most likely no one else will register.  The path is clear for Lai to unify the DPP.  There are some anti-South New Tide factions that Lai needs to buy off in terms of power-sharing.  There are some pro-Tsai factions that need to be bought off in terms of showing the right respect and deference for DPP Prez Tsai after she steps down.  But the narrative is clear.  The 2022 local elections results were so bad for DPP that there is no way around Lai being the leader and candidate of the DPP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: March 15, 2023, 10:12:27 AM »

The Guo-Ko dynamic seems to be changing.  A few months ago it was clear that Ko was looking to form an alliance with Guo.  The idea is that Ko needs to be on the Prez ticket in order to help push up the TPP PR vote.  Running by himself just means he will be the victim of tactical voting so the best thing for Ko was to be on a third-party Guo-Ko ticket to be part of a close 3-way race.

Now with polls showing Lai catching up, KMT's interest in taking a bet on Guo is going down and that is worrying Guo.  So Guo's way out is to pursue an alliance with Ko in order to say to the KMT, look, nominate me and I get Ko to step aside (and maybe even run as Guo's running mate.)  Well, a KMT Guo-Ko ticket will be unlikely since that will anger the KMT leadership base by running two KMT outsiders as the KMT ticket.  Guo is Deep Blue and ideologically close to the KMT but he is no longer a party member.  Also now Ko sees that Guo is going to use him as a way to get the KMT nomination he is cooling on the idea of a Guo-Ko alliance since Ko running on a Guo-Ko ticket would also defeat his going of pushing up the TPP PR vote.
Logged
Neptunium
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 300
Taiwan


Political Matrix
E: 5.16, S: -1.90

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: March 17, 2023, 10:16:17 PM »

In a dovish move, ROC announces the reopening of direct flights with Mainland China which were shut down at the beginning of COVID.  The PRC indicated earlier in 2022 that they were ready for the resumption of direct flights but were turned down by DPP due to their need to set the narrative in the 2022 local elections.  What is interesting is that ROC announced this on the same day Xi was re-elected as PRC Prez for his third term.  This is clearly not a coincidence and along with DPP Prez Tsai telling McCarthy not to visit ROC, it seems that DPP Prez Tsai is focused on her legacy.  It is also likely that in her assessment that rising tensions with PRC might not work to the DPP advantage in 2024 elections unlikely 2020.
From what I understand, although tourism from mainlanders helped Taiwanese economy, average Taiwanese didn't like interacting with mainlander tourists. Is this true?

Maybe a bit when the first large wave of tourists showed up in 2009.  I do not think this is much of a problem these days.  Understand that over 1 million people from ROC work and live (at least part-time) on the Mainland so the level of interactions was quite large, especially since 2009.  I think this is a problem for Mainland tourists in Japan where they are loved for their money but hated for how they behave.  My impression is this has gotten better this past decade but for sure a large number of people in Japan (not associated with the tourist or retail industry of course) would prefer if the Mailand Chinese tourist are not there.

1 million people? do you have the data? I don't think it is such many people work there.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: March 18, 2023, 01:55:14 AM »

In a dovish move, ROC announces the reopening of direct flights with Mainland China which were shut down at the beginning of COVID.  The PRC indicated earlier in 2022 that they were ready for the resumption of direct flights but were turned down by DPP due to their need to set the narrative in the 2022 local elections.  What is interesting is that ROC announced this on the same day Xi was re-elected as PRC Prez for his third term.  This is clearly not a coincidence and along with DPP Prez Tsai telling McCarthy not to visit ROC, it seems that DPP Prez Tsai is focused on her legacy.  It is also likely that in her assessment that rising tensions with PRC might not work to the DPP advantage in 2024 elections unlikely 2020.
From what I understand, although tourism from mainlanders helped Taiwanese economy, average Taiwanese didn't like interacting with mainlander tourists. Is this true?

Maybe a bit when the first large wave of tourists showed up in 2009.  I do not think this is much of a problem these days.  Understand that over 1 million people from ROC work and live (at least part-time) on the Mainland so the level of interactions was quite large, especially since 2009.  I think this is a problem for Mainland tourists in Japan where they are loved for their money but hated for how they behave.  My impression is this has gotten better this past decade but for sure a large number of people in Japan (not associated with the tourist or retail industry of course) would prefer if the Mailand Chinese tourist are not there.

1 million people? do you have the data? I don't think it is such many people work there.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/11/16/2003604555

"It is estimated that there are more than 1 million Taiwanese living in China. About 210,000 people returned to vote in the 2012 presidential election."
Logged
Neptunium
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 300
Taiwan


Political Matrix
E: 5.16, S: -1.90

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: March 18, 2023, 10:14:44 PM »
« Edited: March 18, 2023, 10:33:51 PM by Neptunium »

In a dovish move, ROC announces the reopening of direct flights with Mainland China which were shut down at the beginning of COVID.  The PRC indicated earlier in 2022 that they were ready for the resumption of direct flights but were turned down by DPP due to their need to set the narrative in the 2022 local elections.  What is interesting is that ROC announced this on the same day Xi was re-elected as PRC Prez for his third term.  This is clearly not a coincidence and along with DPP Prez Tsai telling McCarthy not to visit ROC, it seems that DPP Prez Tsai is focused on her legacy.  It is also likely that in her assessment that rising tensions with PRC might not work to the DPP advantage in 2024 elections unlikely 2020.
From what I understand, although tourism from mainlanders helped Taiwanese economy, average Taiwanese didn't like interacting with mainlander tourists. Is this true?

Maybe a bit when the first large wave of tourists showed up in 2009.  I do not think this is much of a problem these days.  Understand that over 1 million people from ROC work and live (at least part-time) on the Mainland so the level of interactions was quite large, especially since 2009.  I think this is a problem for Mainland tourists in Japan where they are loved for their money but hated for how they behave.  My impression is this has gotten better this past decade but for sure a large number of people in Japan (not associated with the tourist or retail industry of course) would prefer if the Mailand Chinese tourist are not there.

1 million people? do you have the data? I don't think it is such many people work there.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/11/16/2003604555

"It is estimated that there are more than 1 million Taiwanese living in China. About 210,000 people returned to vote in the 2012 presidential election."

https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20210511002936-260409?chdtv

According to census done by China on 2020, there are only about 158k Taiwanese living in China.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: March 19, 2023, 06:32:22 AM »



https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/11/16/2003604555

"It is estimated that there are more than 1 million Taiwanese living in China. About 210,000 people returned to vote in the 2012 presidential election."

https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20210511002936-260409?chdtv

According to census done by China on 2020, there are only about 158k Taiwanese living in China.

Well, first let me say that I do not know either way. 

I speculate the difference between various estimates is methodological differences in how to account for permanent or temporary ROC citizens living on the Mainland. Meaning at any point in time there might be a large number of people from ROC-controlled territories living on the Mainland but they are there only for a few months or a couple of years.  If this is the reason that further reinforces my original point "Mainland tourist in large numbers on ROC is not an issue since so many people from ROC has lived on the Mainland for some amount of time (be it  temporary or permanent.)
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,642
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: March 19, 2023, 11:15:24 AM »

In a dovish move, ROC announces the reopening of direct flights with Mainland China which were shut down at the beginning of COVID.  The PRC indicated earlier in 2022 that they were ready for the resumption of direct flights but were turned down by DPP due to their need to set the narrative in the 2022 local elections.  What is interesting is that ROC announced this on the same day Xi was re-elected as PRC Prez for his third term.  This is clearly not a coincidence and along with DPP Prez Tsai telling McCarthy not to visit ROC, it seems that DPP Prez Tsai is focused on her legacy.  It is also likely that in her assessment that rising tensions with PRC might not work to the DPP advantage in 2024 elections unlikely 2020.
From what I understand, although tourism from mainlanders helped Taiwanese economy, average Taiwanese didn't like interacting with mainlander tourists. Is this true?

Maybe a bit when the first large wave of tourists showed up in 2009.  I do not think this is much of a problem these days.  Understand that over 1 million people from ROC work and live (at least part-time) on the Mainland so the level of interactions was quite large, especially since 2009.  I think this is a problem for Mainland tourists in Japan where they are loved for their money but hated for how they behave.  My impression is this has gotten better this past decade but for sure a large number of people in Japan (not associated with the tourist or retail industry of course) would prefer if the Mailand Chinese tourist are not there.

1 million people? do you have the data? I don't think it is such many people work there.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/11/16/2003604555

"It is estimated that there are more than 1 million Taiwanese living in China. About 210,000 people returned to vote in the 2012 presidential election."

https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20210511002936-260409?chdtv

According to census done by China on 2020, there are only about 158k Taiwanese living in China.

And you believe any number the PRC makes up?
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: March 19, 2023, 12:26:31 PM »

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-taiwan-president-ma-visit-china-landmark-trip-2023-03-19/

"Former Taiwan president Ma to visit China in landmark trip"

Former ROC Prez Ma to visit Mainland China.  This will be the first time a former ROC Prez will set foot on the mainland since 1949.  To be fair the real breakthrough in my mind was the 2005 summit between KMT Chairperson Lien and CCP Chairperson Hu on the mainland.  There are ROC laws that forbid former ROC officials from visiting the mainland for a time period but they have expired for Ma.  The DPP even changed the laws on this to stop Ma from visiting the mainland a few years back.  I am not sure what they think they are stopping.  If Ma wanted to give ROC secrets to the CCP he does not need to visit the mainland to do so.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: March 20, 2023, 10:21:30 AM »

Looks like former KMT Prez Ma's trip to the Mainland will overlap with DPP Prez Tsai's trip the USA exactly.  I suspect news from both trips will overshadow the other on the media during that week.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: March 22, 2023, 04:36:12 PM »

Latest updates:
Lai gets DPP 2024 Prez nomination by default.
KMT announces that its Prez candidate will be decided in June via a drafting approach.  Namely, the KMT will do some private polls and then approach key candidates (namely Hou and Guo) with the results with the goal of getting one of them to automatically endorse the other, and then the KMT will just draft one of them.

In the meantime given Lai's winning the nomination and the chaos in the KMT, for now, Lai takes the lead in the DPP renegade TPOF poll

DPP Lai    36.2(+8.5)
KMT Hou  24.8(-7.6)
TPP Ko     19.0(-0.5)



Given the pan-Green bias of TPOF, I am sure Lai's lead is not that large but it would not surprise me at all given the media narrative that Lai would be ahead.

On the legislative election front, the KMT seems to be winning the battle of MP retirements.  Several sitting DPP MPs that are in lean Blue districts indicated that they are not running for re-election.  A key DPP maverick MLA decided to challenge a DPP incumbent in a safe DPP district instead of running in a marginal district.  The fact is that Lai has a decent shot at winning due to the ability of TPP Ko to win part of the anti-DPP vote.  Potential DPP legislative candidates know that the TPP has nothing down-ballot as strong as Ko and that in legislative races the anti-DPP vote is likely to consolidate and that the DPP position in legislative race is not rosy at at all.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: March 25, 2023, 11:47:19 AM »

Ettoday 2024 Prez election poll

3-way

DPP Lai    34.2
KMT Hou  27.6
TPP Ko     16.9


2-way

KMT Hou  39.3
DPP Lai    37.0


The main problem for Lai is that in a close race, TPP Ko will be below 10% or above 20%.  If TPP Ko is below 10%, the tactical vote will benefit KMT Hou.  And if TPP Ko is above 20% then he most likely got all the light Blue votes he is going to get and he might then attract anti-KMT DPP-TPP swing youth voters.

These numbers most likely underestimate Hou who will get a surge when he is actually nominated while DPP Lai already had his surge based on his de facto nomination.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: March 26, 2023, 04:23:58 AM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-honduras-taiwan-diplomatic-ties-us-tensions-rcna76697

"Honduras forms diplomatic ties with China after breaking relations with Taiwan"

Despite days of USA lobbying on behalf of ROC Honduras drops ROC for PRC.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 34  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 12 queries.