Rate SC-01 in 2024
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Poll
Question: Rate SC-01 in 2024
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt D		  
#5
Toss-Up/Tilt R		  
#6
Lean R		  
#7
Likely R		  
#8
Safe R		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 31

Author Topic: Rate SC-01 in 2024  (Read 658 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: January 07, 2023, 05:41:00 PM »
Rate SC-01 in 2024.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2023, 07:11:45 PM »
SAFE R

Rep. Nancy Mace has this Seat as long as she wants it. Mace is highly likely a future Senator from the Palmetto State. If Graham retires in 2026 she is the odds-on favorite to succeed him.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2023, 08:05:27 PM »
Lean R on aggregate; Likely if the seat stays as is and Tossup/Tilt R if the map is ultimately redrawn.

It's worth noting that despite relatively poor black turnout across the South and Mace being considered a more "moderate" or palatable R, she really didn't do all that well in 2022.

It's also entirely possible she's knocked out in a primary; Arrington came pretty close in 2022, in which case you could have yourself another WA-03 situation
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2023, 08:14:01 PM »
A district that voted D in 2018 and just barely voted R in 2020 is not suddenly "safe R" LMFAO. Mace might be a strong incumbent and might be hard to beat, but "Safe" is way too strong for this district. Even if it got slightly more R in redistricting.
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GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2023, 12:31:35 AM »
Yeah this is a trending D district. Mace may be a good incumbent but the right candidate in the right year could definitely unseat her.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2023, 07:01:47 AM »
This is still a Trump +9 district that Mace won by 14. Even if it's trending leftward, it will not be competitive in 2024 sans redraw. Of course, if it's redrawn, all bets are off.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2023, 07:36:22 AM »
Safe R
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2023, 02:51:28 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2023, 02:59:46 PM by GM Team Member NewYorkExpress »
Lean R if Mace wins a primary.

Tossup if she loses the primary.

Other than Joe Cunningham, I'm not certain who Democrats could run here and be competitive.

Maybe Leon Stavrinakis or Spencer Wetmore, if they ran could make this a race, but otherwise, I think Democratic hopes probably depend on Mace losing the primary.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2023, 06:55:19 PM »
The current iteration or if by some miracle a redrawn one is allowed to come into existence?

If the former, likely R.

If the latter, maybe tossup.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2023, 07:06:06 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on January 07, 2023, 08:05:27 PM
Lean R on aggregate; Likely if the seat stays as is and Tossup/Tilt R if the map is ultimately redrawn.

It's worth noting that despite relatively poor black turnout across the South and Mace being considered a more "moderate" or palatable R, she really didn't do all that well in 2022.

It's also entirely possible she's knocked out in a primary; Arrington came pretty close in 2022, in which case you could have yourself another WA-03 situation
That is now off the table. Mace will not be knocked out in a Primary.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2023, 10:38:25 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 07, 2023, 08:14:01 PM
A district that voted D in 2018 and just barely voted R in 2020 is not suddenly "safe R" LMFAO. Mace might be a strong incumbent and might be hard to beat, but "Safe" is way too strong for this district. Even if it got slightly more R in redistricting.
It's been redistricted and shored up for the republicans
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2023, 11:16:19 PM »
Quote from: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 08, 2023, 10:38:25 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on January 07, 2023, 08:14:01 PM
A district that voted D in 2018 and just barely voted R in 2020 is not suddenly "safe R" LMFAO. Mace might be a strong incumbent and might be hard to beat, but "Safe" is way too strong for this district. Even if it got slightly more R in redistricting.
It's been redistricted and shored up for the republicans

By only three points.
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
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« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2023, 02:28:37 PM »
We don’t even know what it will look like come 2024 so this isn’t a question anyone can answer
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2023, 03:13:15 PM »
Lean or Likely Republican.

I could see Nancy Mace staying on for at least one more term and then successfuly launching a bid for the senate or governor.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2023, 10:14:12 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on January 09, 2023, 03:13:15 PM
Lean or Likely Republican.

I could see Nancy Mace staying on for at least one more term and then successfully launching a bid for the senate or governor.

100% this.
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