Canadian by-elections 2023

[Hatman 🍁]

I was interested in their partisanship, so I looked up the top candidates past contribution records (prov+fed), and to my surprise, six of the top seven candidates had made contributions:

Kandavel - Lib
Rupasinghe - none
Sidiropoulos - Cons
Ghous - Lib
Roy - Lib
Hussain - Cons
Shome - Cons

So, turns out Kandavel was the Liberal proxy candidate. What a relief it wasn't Ghous!

Its not quite that simple. Apparently Kandavel's Liberal ties were quite tenuous and from a long time ago. He was also endorsed by several NDP school trustees, including former ONDP President and perennial candidate Neethan Shan. There were some issues with the fact that there is a very large Tamil population in the ward - and Rupasingh is one of a very tiny number of Sinhalese Sri Lankans in Toronto! To add further complication, while Rupasingh was the quasi-NDP candidate, he was endorsed by Shelley Caroll the city councillor and budget chief - who is a Liberal! the Apparently the Bailao supporting Liberal "establishment" types like Jennifer McKelvie all backed Suman Roy - who came in a dismal 5th!

At the end of the day, the main take away is that a hard right conservative, Crawford, who would have voted against Olivia Chow's agenda 100% of the time is gone - and replaced by a progressive who wants to work with Chow and will likely support her 95% of the time

Well, everyone knows municipal elections are non partisan, but it's interesting to see where the candidates partisan roots are. Rupasinghe would've been the preferred outcome, but agreed that Kandavel is definitely an improvement over Crawford. And he was still touted as a progressive.

Kandavel seemed to be last involved in partisan politics in 2018 when he ran for the Scarborough Centre provincial nomination, but lost. Apparently Tamil ethnic politics played a role in the race: https://www.toronto.com/news/scarborough-centre-liberal-nomination-battle-won-by-mazhar-shafiq/article_4e1f311f-8740-5a55-86d6-d30eb5e42a2d.html?

[Hatman 🍁]

At one time they wanted to eliminate the Catholic school system, but apparently they have abandoned that plank. 

Odd plank to drop. Polls suggest that this is pretty popular among voters.

[lilTommy]

At one time they wanted to eliminate the Catholic school system, but apparently they have abandoned that plank.  

Odd plank to drop. Polls suggest that this is pretty popular among voters.

This is still heavily supported by most ONDPers too, even if it's not an overt policy (which is still debated ) the big reason it's not an active policy are the Catholic Teachers Unions

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the swings from the provincial by-election

Grn: +35.2%
NDP: -13.9%
PC: -13.5%
LIB: -7.0%
NBP: -2.9%

Green GAIN from NDP (avg swing: 24.5%)

Turnout was down 19.1% (to 27.1%) from the already paltry 46.2% in 2022. Looks like a lot of Tories stayed home, not being able to choose between two progressives.

[King of Kensington]

From their vantage point (we have no chance and it's going NDP or Green), there was nothing at stake so why bother?

[adma]

I was interested in their partisanship, so I looked up the top candidates past contribution records (prov+fed), and to my surprise, six of the top seven candidates had made contributions:

Kandavel - Lib
Rupasinghe - none
Sidiropoulos - Cons
Ghous - Lib
Roy - Lib
Hussain - Cons
Shome - Cons

So, turns out Kandavel was the Liberal proxy candidate. What a relief it wasn't Ghous!

Fun fact: Alamgir Hussain was the federal NDP candidate in SSW in '08.

[adma]

When did KW become so progressive? Even in Kitchener South and Cambridge the PCs won with less then 40%.

One benchmark in that light might have been Catherine Fife's provincial byelection in Waterloo in '11.

Kitchener Centre was always going to be the #2 target seat for the Greens in the province. Even before Morrice won the seat federally, the conditions were ripe for the GPO there. Parry Sound- which some people thought would be their #2 target is fool's gold for them, though it will be their #3 target.

The Greens found a star candidate, and dumped all of their resources there. Sure, the NDP found an equally star candidate, but they couldn't stop the Green inertia. Kitchener Centre isn't really an "NDP seat", it's a progressive seat, so not surprise it would go Green under the right circumstances.

"Always" is only as long as Mike Morrice has had his foot in the door (that is, his '19 2nd place as well as his '21 victory)--prior to that, it wouldn't have been on anyone's list.  But until now, Lindo rendered the Greens redundant provincially.

A different past "fool's gold" target: Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in the Shane Jolley '00's.

[adma]

If the Greens had won KC very narrowly by 100 votes over the NDP then you could argue that the Sarah Jama controversy might have made the difference as there might actually be 50-dd people in that seat that care enough about it to want to cast a protest vote. But when the margin is this big it was likely baked in no matter what.

Not sure about "baked in"--though one might argue that if it weren't for the well-oiled Mike Morrice machine in place, a seat like this could have flipped Liberal instead.

And as far as the Jama controversy goes: in the end, it might be less about the "protest vote" than it might be about ground team demoralization.

[King of Kensington]

Not just demoralization among the base, but a sense among the electorate that "the NDP doesn't have their act together."

Should say the outgoing MPP, Laura Mae Lindo, strongly supported Sarah Jama.

[adma]

Not just demoralization among the base, but a sense among the electorate that "the NDP doesn't have their act together."

Should say the outgoing MPP, Laura Mae Lindo, strongly supported Sarah Jama.

Yeah, and all three of those (including Lindo's Jama support) are symbiotic with one another.

[Hatman 🍁]

When did KW become so progressive? Even in Kitchener South and Cambridge the PCs won with less then 40%.

One benchmark in that light might have been Catherine Fife's provincial byelection in Waterloo in '11.

Kitchener Centre was always going to be the #2 target seat for the Greens in the province. Even before Morrice won the seat federally, the conditions were ripe for the GPO there. Parry Sound- which some people thought would be their #2 target is fool's gold for them, though it will be their #3 target.

The Greens found a star candidate, and dumped all of their resources there. Sure, the NDP found an equally star candidate, but they couldn't stop the Green inertia. Kitchener Centre isn't really an "NDP seat", it's a progressive seat, so not surprise it would go Green under the right circumstances.

"Always" is only as long as Mike Morrice has had his foot in the door (that is, his '19 2nd place as well as his '21 victory)--prior to that, it wouldn't have been on anyone's list.  But until now, Lindo rendered the Greens redundant provincially.

A different past "fool's gold" target: Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in the Shane Jolley '00's.

Yeah, though Owen Sound was fairly candidate specific too. The Greens have had perennial strength in PSM since 1990. I suppose if cottage country keeps "gentrifying" it may one day flip.

[adma]

When did KW become so progressive? Even in Kitchener South and Cambridge the PCs won with less then 40%.

One benchmark in that light might have been Catherine Fife's provincial byelection in Waterloo in '11.

Kitchener Centre was always going to be the #2 target seat for the Greens in the province. Even before Morrice won the seat federally, the conditions were ripe for the GPO there. Parry Sound- which some people thought would be their #2 target is fool's gold for them, though it will be their #3 target.

The Greens found a star candidate, and dumped all of their resources there. Sure, the NDP found an equally star candidate, but they couldn't stop the Green inertia. Kitchener Centre isn't really an "NDP seat", it's a progressive seat, so not surprise it would go Green under the right circumstances.

"Always" is only as long as Mike Morrice has had his foot in the door (that is, his '19 2nd place as well as his '21 victory)--prior to that, it wouldn't have been on anyone's list.  But until now, Lindo rendered the Greens redundant provincially.

A different past "fool's gold" target: Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in the Shane Jolley '00's.

Yeah, though Owen Sound was fairly candidate specific too. The Greens have had perennial strength in PSM since 1990. I suppose if cottage country keeps "gentrifying" it may one day flip.

Though up to 2000/2001, PSM was *itself* very much candidate-specific--it was all about Richard Thomas, who nearly upset "Landslide Ernie" as a Liberal in '81 and ran for the OLP leadership in '82 before switching allegiances (and was a bit of a "king of Almaguin" figure).

Since then, while there may be an element of Richard Thomas coattails, it's been a higher-octane version of Green's elevated "designer enviro-party" status in affluent commuter-Conservative places like Dufferin-Caledon (or, for that matter, BGOS even outside its Shane Jolley interlude).  And not entirely unlike Saanich-Gulf Islands or other BC strongholds...

[Hatman 🍁]

When did KW become so progressive? Even in Kitchener South and Cambridge the PCs won with less then 40%.

One benchmark in that light might have been Catherine Fife's provincial byelection in Waterloo in '11.

Kitchener Centre was always going to be the #2 target seat for the Greens in the province. Even before Morrice won the seat federally, the conditions were ripe for the GPO there. Parry Sound- which some people thought would be their #2 target is fool's gold for them, though it will be their #3 target.

The Greens found a star candidate, and dumped all of their resources there. Sure, the NDP found an equally star candidate, but they couldn't stop the Green inertia. Kitchener Centre isn't really an "NDP seat", it's a progressive seat, so not surprise it would go Green under the right circumstances.

"Always" is only as long as Mike Morrice has had his foot in the door (that is, his '19 2nd place as well as his '21 victory)--prior to that, it wouldn't have been on anyone's list.  But until now, Lindo rendered the Greens redundant provincially.

A different past "fool's gold" target: Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in the Shane Jolley '00's.

Yeah, though Owen Sound was fairly candidate specific too. The Greens have had perennial strength in PSM since 1990. I suppose if cottage country keeps "gentrifying" it may one day flip.

Though up to 2000/2001, PSM was *itself* very much candidate-specific--it was all about Richard Thomas, who nearly upset "Landslide Ernie" as a Liberal in '81 and ran for the OLP leadership in '82 before switching allegiances (and was a bit of a "king of Almaguin" figure).

Since then, while there may be an element of Richard Thomas coattails, it's been a higher-octane version of Green's elevated "designer enviro-party" status in affluent commuter-Conservative places like Dufferin-Caledon (or, for that matter, BGOS even outside its Shane Jolley interlude).  And not entirely unlike Saanich-Gulf Islands or other BC strongholds...

True, it did start with Richard Thomas, but what other riding is going to have a good base of the rural granola eating Birkenstock types who are most attracted to the Greens?

[adma]

Though up to 2000/2001, PSM was *itself* very much candidate-specific--it was all about Richard Thomas, who nearly upset "Landslide Ernie" as a Liberal in '81 and ran for the OLP leadership in '82 before switching allegiances (and was a bit of a "king of Almaguin" figure).

Since then, while there may be an element of Richard Thomas coattails, it's been a higher-octane version of Green's elevated "designer enviro-party" status in affluent commuter-Conservative places like Dufferin-Caledon (or, for that matter, BGOS even outside its Shane Jolley interlude).  And not entirely unlike Saanich-Gulf Islands or other BC strongholds...

True, it did start with Richard Thomas, but what other riding is going to have a good base of the rural granola eating Birkenstock types who are most attracted to the Greens?

Though the Green centre of gravity did shift--it was more Parry Sound-centric in the Thomas era,  (naturally, given his political home base), but it's been more Muskoka-centric since, as well as more "Greenservative".

As far as "that" kind of rural Birkenstock/Greenservative demo goes, all the northern Niagara Escarpment ridings latently have it (BGOS, where they had their '00's boomlet; Dufferin-Caledon, where their mean showing's been consistently double digits; Simcoe-Grey, where Schreiner ran in '04; Wellington-Halton Hills, which also happens to be the donut around the Schreiner hole), as does Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock (where Rae-era "Dennis Drainville populism" was of the sort that might as well have morphed Green in more recent times).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

At one time they wanted to eliminate the Catholic school system, but apparently they have abandoned that plank.  

Odd plank to drop. Polls suggest that this is pretty popular among voters.

This is still heavily supported by most ONDPers too, even if it's not an overt policy (which is still debated ) the big reason it's not an active policy are the Catholic Teachers Unions

It's a stance that can only lose votes. Catholic teachers unions, Catholic voters at large, and even non-Catholic parents who send their kids to Catholic school. You'd need to balance it out with an equal or greater number of voters who want Catholic schools abolished/merged and would switch their vote on that issue. I don't see how any of the big three parties could benefit from that dynamic

[MaxQue]

Also, Francophone Catholic school boards are quite important for Francophones (and many of them vote NDP in Northern Ontario), especially given the dismal state of some non-religious French school boards.

[toaster]

Also, Francophone Catholic school boards are quite important for Francophones (and many of them vote NDP in Northern Ontario), especially given the dismal state of some non-religious French school boards.

It's worse on the Francophone side.  Gay Francophone teachers (or families) often have to travel hours to get to a French public school if they want to stay in the French system.  They have access to only about 10-15% of schools, and there are only 4 Public school boards - it's awful.  Imagine being Jewish, Muslim, LGBT, and French in Ontario and trying to get a job in your native tongue, and it's perfectly ok for a branch of the government to deny your chances at a job by 90%.  It's insane.  And you have schools that are Public and Catholic combined (See L'Alliance in Iroquois Falls) - they share the same teachers - the kids are in the same class - it doesn't make any sense. 

[MaxQue]

Also, Francophone Catholic school boards are quite important for Francophones (and many of them vote NDP in Northern Ontario), especially given the dismal state of some non-religious French school boards.

It's worse on the Francophone side.  Gay Francophone teachers (or families) often have to travel hours to get to a French public school if they want to stay in the French system.  They have access to only about 10-15% of schools, and there are only 4 Public school boards - it's awful.  Imagine being Jewish, Muslim, LGBT, and French in Ontario and trying to get a job in your native tongue, and it's perfectly ok for a branch of the government to deny your chances at a job by 90%.  It's insane.  And you have schools that are Public and Catholic combined (See L'Alliance in Iroquois Falls) - they share the same teachers - the kids are in the same class - it doesn't make any sense. 

The solution is very easy there, Quebec found it in the 70's. Ban Catholic school boards to discrimate according to religion or sexual orientation.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec also banned Catholic school boards.

[MaxQue]

Quebec also banned Catholic school boards.

Well, it was much later on, in the 90's and it was more rebranding (from "Catholic" to "Francophone" and from "Protestant" to "Anglophone") than anything else.

I was a kid in one then and the only thing that changed was the logo on the letterheads and the name of the board.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Carolyn Bennett resigned as M.P for Toronto-St Paul's on December 12.

[King of Kensington]

I wonder if Councillor Josh Matlow or former MPP Dr. Eric Hoskins will be running.

[Continential]

Could the Tories win or is too Liberal for that to happen?

[MaxQue]

Could the Tories win or is too Liberal for that to happen?

The Liberals won by 8 points in 2011, of all years.

[adma]

Could the Tories win or is too Liberal for that to happen?

The Liberals won by 8 points in 2011, of all years.

And if anything, in a Jill Andrew era, things have been swinging away from the Cons and t/w the NDP, relatively speaking--the Dippers in '21 even outpolled '19 despite a candidate that withdrew at the last minute.  (Or, it'd take a real 3-way circumstance for *either* CPC *or* NDP to push through)