Canadian by-elections 2023

[DL]

By elections this week in Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia. What do people expect

Preston - no idea. Probably a riding where local campaigns matter a great deal.
In Saskatchewan, I fully expect the NDP to pick up both Regina ridings. Will be interesting to see how well the new right wing parties will do in Lumsden-Morse, but should be a safe Sask Party hold.

Sounds about right. The only thing of interest in Lumsden-Morse will be the popular vote. Even when the NDP did well in rural Saskatchewan - they were not winning that area, but I'd be curious to see if they can boost their popular vote at all.

Yeah, the NDP last won the riding (well, the Lumsden half) in 1960 as the CCF. And that's only because the right wing vote was split 3 ways.

Actually Morse also went NDP in 1978. in the 50s and 60s it was Ross Thatcher's seat.

[mileslunn]

For Saskatchewan by-elections later this week my thoughts are:

Regina-Coronation Park: One of the most marginal seats in province so would be very surprised if it doesn't flip NDP and if they cannot gain it bad news for them.

Regina-Walsh Acres:  I expect NDP to also win this but possible Saskatchewan Party holds.  This is type of riding NDP needs to be winning by a sizeable margin if any chance at winning and just winning to even form a more decent opposition.

Lumsden-Morse: Like rest of rural Saskatchewan, solid Saskatchewan party but what will be interesting is how well further right parties like Buffalo Party do here.  If they get in double digits, expect Moe to sharpen fight with feds and move to right.

[adma]

Preston, 4 polls in (out of 29)

PC 1042, NDP 529, Lib 457, NSU 51, Green 45

[adma]

18 polls: 1499, 806, 680, 80, 72.  PC landslide, seems to be.

[adma]

26 polls: 1861, 1011, 902, 93, 92.

[adma]

Final for Preston:

PC 1950 (45.22)
NDP 1145 (26.55)
Lib 1021 (23.68)
GP 101 (2.34)
NSU 95 (2.20)

[DistingFlyer]

Last poll from Preston in now.

Grosse (PC) - 1950 (45.2%) (+16.5%)
Simmonds (NDP) - 1145 (26.6%) (-1.4%)
Simmons (Lib) - 1021 (23.7%) (-19.7%)
Edmonds (GP) - 101 (2.3%)
Taylor (NSU) - 95 (2.2%)

Quite the result.

[DL]

Last poll from Preston in now.

Grosse (PC) - 1950 (45.2%) (+16.5%)
Simmonds (NDP) - 1145 (26.6%) (-1.4%)
Simmons (Lib) - 1021 (23.7%) (-19.7%)
Edmonds (GP) - 101 (2.3%)
Taylor (NSU) - 95 (2.2%)

Quite the result.

Obviously good news for the Nova Scotia PCs. There is a bit of a pattern in Atlantic Canada of incumbent parties doing well in byelections. It’s an old clientelist attitude of “I better elect an MLA from the government side or else my roads will never be paved”. A total catastrophe for the Liberals. NDP is probably quietly pleased to come in second and see the Liberals lose a seat. Sets them up to maybe overtake the Libs in 2025

[mileslunn]

Very good results for PCs although I think those interpreting it with respect to federal is stretching it.  I think you could say Tim Houston is fairly popular and is doing well now.  But federally, I don't think it says much.  Houston is very much a Red Tory and has little in common with current federal Tories so maybe they do well in Atlantic Canada, but maybe they don't; this says little

[DL]

Regina-Walsh Acres:  I expect NDP to also win this but possible Saskatchewan Party holds.  This is type of riding NDP needs to be winning by a sizeable margin if any chance at winning and just winning to even form a more decent opposition.

In the last election the Sask Party won Walsh Acres 46% to 37% - but 12% went to former NDP MLA Sandra Morin who ran as an independent after the NDP barred her from being nominated - most of not all of her votes were likely NDP votes. She is not running in the byelection so that should also favour the NDP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously good news for the Nova Scotia PCs. There is a bit of a pattern in Atlantic Canada of incumbent parties doing well in byelections. It’s an old clientelist attitude of “I better elect an MLA from the government side or else my roads will never be paved”. A total catastrophe for the Liberals. NDP is probably quietly pleased to come in second and see the Liberals lose a seat. Sets them up to maybe overtake the Libs in 2025

[Hatman 🍁]

Some recent polls show the Sask Party tanking (still ahead though, lol), so it would be a huge surprise if the NDP didn't win both Regina seats IMO.

By elections this week in Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia. What do people expect

Preston - no idea. Probably a riding where local campaigns matter a great deal.
In Saskatchewan, I fully expect the NDP to pick up both Regina ridings. Will be interesting to see how well the new right wing parties will do in Lumsden-Morse, but should be a safe Sask Party hold.

Sounds about right. The only thing of interest in Lumsden-Morse will be the popular vote. Even when the NDP did well in rural Saskatchewan - they were not winning that area, but I'd be curious to see if they can boost their popular vote at all.

Yeah, the NDP last won the riding (well, the Lumsden half) in 1960 as the CCF. And that's only because the right wing vote was split 3 ways.

Actually Morse also went NDP in 1978.

True, but most of the riding was in Thunder Creek at the time.

[adma]

Preparing for the Sask byelections, I notice that it looks like they've gone the megapoll route as well--according to Elections Saskatchewan, Lumsden-Morse has 22 regular polls, the Reginas 5 apiece.  ***CRINGE***

[mileslunn]

Regina-Walsh Acres all in for preliminary count and final count usually benefits NDP so NDP pickup.  Probably not a big enough swing to win provincewide but seems to jive with polls.  Although does seem NDP tends to do better in by-elections than general in Saskatchewan so hard to say if trend or means nothing like other ones.

Jared Clarke
New Democratic Party (N.D.P.)
2395   54.0%

Nevin Markwart
Saskatchewan Party
1783   40.2%

Rose Buscholl
Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan
215   4.8%

Joseph Reynolds
Saskatchewan Green Party
38   0.9%

[mileslunn]

Regina-Coronation Park flips and this is a much bigger swing

Noor Burki
New Democratic Party (N.D.P.)
2039   56.6%

Riaz Ahmad
Saskatchewan Party
1131   31.4%

Olasehinde Ben Adebayo
Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan
222   6.2%

Kendra Anderson
Saskatchewan Green Party
122   3.4%

Reid Hill
Saskatchewan Progress Party
85   2.4%

[mileslunn]

So far not looking like a good night for Saskatchewan Party.  PCs also doing better than expected so maybe some confusion but also perhaps some on right tired of Moe and looking for an alternative.  While a long shot anyone think NDP has a chance next year in Saskatchewan?

[adma]

So far not looking like a good night for Saskatchewan Party.  PCs also doing better than expected so maybe some confusion but also perhaps some on right tired of Moe and looking for an alternative.  While a long shot anyone think NDP has a chance next year in Saskatchewan?

*Much* more evident of whatever you're seeing in the PC results is the 20-25% that Sask United's getting in Lumsden-Morse (which has also decimated the Buffalo Party, even though they're running the same candidate as in '20--and even the NDP vote's so far up to mid-20s from the 18% it was at in '20),  So the PC vote might be an "alternative right" (as opposed to "alt-right") proxy in seats where Sask United isn't running--but it's still too low to read too much into.

[adma]

Lumsden-Morse final:

Les Guillemin Buffalo Party 56 1.1%  (-4.9)
Kaitlyn Stadnyk New Democratic Party 1064 21.6% (+3.6)
Isaiah Hunter Saskatchewan Green Party  38 0.8% (-1.
Blaine McLeod Saskatchewan Party 2648 53.7% (-19.7)
Jon Hromek Saskatchewan United Party 1121 22.7%

Until things flipped at the very end, the NDP led Sask United.  (And they could still do so once the mail-ins are tabulated)

[lilTommy]

I think there's an under-valuing of the Regina Walsh Acres result.
The NDP grew their vote by 17%; of the 6 Regina seats the NDP did not win in 2020, Walsh Acres had the second lowest NDP vote at 37%(only Gardiner Park was lower at 35%). Walsh Acres, while being next door to Coronation Park, was not the NDPs "low hanging fruit" in Regina. That would be Pasqua and Coronation Park were they lost by 3% and 4% respectively.
In Coronation Park the NDP vote grew by 12%, less then in Walsh Acres but still a very strong showing in a seat that is typically an NDP one. The NDP does need bigger swings to win Gardiner Park and Rochdale, those being the two strongest SP seats in the city, where they led the NDP by 25% and 18%. So a clean sweep of the city is still a long road for the NDP, but they could easily pick up the other two, Pasqua and Northeast with a 10% swing.

Lumsden-Morse is the big worry for the SP; a 20% decrease in vote and mostly going to a third-party right-wing alternative has to scare them. In Lumsden-Morse they had vote to spare, having won over 70% in 2020 but those most competitive rural seats are now looking less certain. Are there any? I'd look anywhere the NDP won over 25% in 2020, Meadow Lake, Sask Rivers, Batoche, The Battlefords, Regina Wascana Plains, Last Mountain-Touchwood, Indian Head-Milestone (AND that's excluding the Two seats in both Moose Jaw and Prince Albert which are already NDP targets), If the NDP can get their act together on rural issues, and if the United Party can continue to pull in a large chunk of vote, a couple of these seats might just go NDP. Some of them have a history of being held by the NDP. 

[Hatman 🍁]

The bigger swing in Walsh Acres is only because Sandra Morin split the vote in 2020. If you factor in her vote, then it's really only a 4 point swing. Much more muted, especially compared to Coronation Park. I think the SP running a "star" candidate helped them a bit, only dropping 6 points.

[DL]

There are still "mail in votes" to be added to all three results in Saskatchewan. Any idea of when those get tallied and whether we are talking about any significant number of additional votes?

[DL]

IMHO Saskatchewan is going the way of Alberta politically with Regina and Saskatoon increasingly headed towards Edmonton-like voting patterns. The difference is that Alberta is much more urban than Saskatchewan. The Alberta NDP can win a majority by sweeping Edmonton and winning two-thirds of Calgary since a majority of seats are in those two cities - they don't even need to win every seat in Calgary, just most of them.

Saskatchewan is much less urban, even if the NDP were to win every single solitary seat in Regina and Saskatoon, they would not win the province. They would need to also take the two northern seats and both Moose Jaw and both Prince Albert seats and then they would get a 1 seat majority.

Of course over time Regina and Saskatoon are growing and the rural areas are losing people and so I expect the next redistribution in Saskatchewan may tip the balance a bit more by adding a couple more urban seats and ditching a rural seat or two. (addendum - there is a new map out and it basically turns a couple of mixed urban rural seats in the cities into purely urban seats. Saskatchewan will have 59 seats - 12 in Regina, 14 in Saskatoon, 2 in each of PA and MJ and 2 in the north. So theoretically if the NDP won all of them they would have 32 seats and the SP would have 27...but there are some very suburban seats that could be tough for the NDP to win - at least based on past results

[Benjamin Frank]

There are still "mail in votes" to be added to all three results in Saskatchewan. Any idea of when those get tallied and whether we are talking about any significant number of additional votes?

The number of mail in votes are on the Elections Saskatchewan website. There are around 200 in all three ridings.

[adma]

I'd look anywhere the NDP won over 25% in 2020, Meadow Lake, Sask Rivers, Batoche, The Battlefords, Regina Wascana Plains, Last Mountain-Touchwood, Indian Head-Milestone (AND that's excluding the Two seats in both Moose Jaw and Prince Albert which are already NDP targets), If the NDP can get their act together on rural issues, and if the United Party can continue to pull in a large chunk of vote, a couple of these seats might just go NDP. Some of them have a history of being held by the NDP. 

While they were short at 23% there (a point less than in neighbouring Canora-Pelly!), I'd look to Yorkton as well, simply for "urbanity" reasons.

IMHO Saskatchewan is going the way of Alberta politically with Regina and Saskatoon increasingly headed towards Edmonton-like voting patterns. The difference is that Alberta is much more urban than Saskatchewan. The Alberta NDP can win a majority by sweeping Edmonton and winning two-thirds of Calgary since a majority of seats are in those two cities - they don't even need to win every seat in Calgary, just most of them.

Saskatchewan is much less urban, even if the NDP were to win every single solitary seat in Regina and Saskatoon, they would not win the province. They would need to also take the two northern seats and both Moose Jaw and both Prince Albert seats and then they would get a 1 seat majority.

Of course over time Regina and Saskatoon are growing and the rural areas are losing people and so I expect the next redistribution in Saskatchewan may tip the balance a bit more by adding a couple more urban seats and ditching a rural seat or two. (addendum - there is a new map out and it basically turns a couple of mixed urban rural seats in the cities into purely urban seats. Saskatchewan will have 59 seats - 12 in Regina, 14 in Saskatoon, 2 in each of PA and MJ and 2 in the north. So theoretically if the NDP won all of them they would have 32 seats and the SP would have 27...but there are some very suburban seats that could be tough for the NDP to win - at least based on past results

Actually, I'd consider that kind of "going the way of Alberta federally" to be more a reversion to form--basically, that's how the first Sask Party elections of 1999 and 2003 and, to a vestigial degree, 2007  turned out.  Sask was Alberta-like before Alberta in the NDP being reduced to a largely urban-and-northern rump.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

IMHO Saskatchewan is going the way of Alberta politically with Regina and Saskatoon increasingly headed towards Edmonton-like voting patterns. The difference is that Alberta is much more urban than Saskatchewan. The Alberta NDP can win a majority by sweeping Edmonton and winning two-thirds of Calgary since a majority of seats are in those two cities - they don't even need to win every seat in Calgary, just most of them.

Saskatchewan is much less urban, even if the NDP were to win every single solitary seat in Regina and Saskatoon, they would not win the province. They would need to also take the two northern seats and both Moose Jaw and both Prince Albert seats and then they would get a 1 seat majority.

Of course over time Regina and Saskatoon are growing and the rural areas are losing people and so I expect the next redistribution in Saskatchewan may tip the balance a bit more by adding a couple more urban seats and ditching a rural seat or two. (addendum - there is a new map out and it basically turns a couple of mixed urban rural seats in the cities into purely urban seats. Saskatchewan will have 59 seats - 12 in Regina, 14 in Saskatoon, 2 in each of PA and MJ and 2 in the north. So theoretically if the NDP won all of them they would have 32 seats and the SP would have 27...but there are some very suburban seats that could be tough for the NDP to win - at least based on past results

I think what these byelections might suggest that an NDP government in SK is most likely to happen in a "Notley 2015" kinda way. Which is to say, a split in the right-wing vote leading to the NDP winning some pretty far-fetched seats that they simply couldn't against a united right. This would include some of the more right-wing suburban seats in Regina and Stoon, but also places like Moose Jaw, The Battlefords, etc.