India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

Latest rumor.  The special session of Parliament will be to officially rename India to Bharat.  I assume the play is a de-colonization play (India is the name the British came up with) similar to renaming Madras to Chennai.  Of course, it breaks up the new INDIA alliance name game.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1698979799107240203

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1698979799107240203

Is there any real movement to rename the country at all?

[jaichind]

Is there any real movement to rename the country at all?

Not really.  This is never been an issue that I am aware of.  The Indian Constitution has both names in it anyway so this will not be a rename but a removal of the name "India" since Bharat is already there. 
 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there any real movement to rename the country at all?

Not really.  This is never been an issue that I am aware of.  The Indian Constitution has both names in it anyway so this will not be a rename but a removal of the name "India" since Bharat is already there. 
 

I struggle to see the Indian people connecting with this...it might even gift the anti-BJP forces room to paint them as desperate. But stranger things have happened.

[jaichind]

I know of no controversy over India's name other than during Partition in 1947 Pakistan objected to the name of India since that inferred that India was the sole inheritor of the British Raj.  Pakistan suggested Hindustan but that is really the Persian name for India and was turned down.  Eventually, Pakistan accepted the name of India after some back and forth.

Other than to brand Modi around the name Bharat as a better India to counter the INDIA alliance part of a name switch would be to cleanse the nation of what Modi called "1000 years of Slavery" by using a name that is indigenous to India versus the European imposed "India" and Persian imposed "Hindustan."  It is a very victimhood mentality way of looking at things but I leave it to Modi to figure out what works politically since he is the master.

From Modi's Independence Day speech

We all know that our country was invaded 1000-1200 years ago. A small kingdom and its king were defeated. However, we couldn’t have known that this event would lead India into a thousand years of subjugation. We got ensnared in slavery, and whoever came, looted us, and ruled over us. What an adverse period it must have been, that thousand-year span.

We are at the milestone between 1000 years of slavery and 1000 years of grand future that is about to come.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1698979799107240203

If this is the agenda I have to give credit to Modi for audacity.  In a normal year if an Indian PM gets one of those things done it would be viewed as quite consequential.  Now Modi seems to ram each of them through in one day.

It is clear why "One Nation One election", UCC, and renaming India to Bharat are very consequential.  But the Women's Reservation Bill is also massive.  It will basically set aside 1/3 of all political seats for women candidates.  This is on top of the set-asides for Dalits and Tribals. 

If this is the way India is going (quotas everywhere) I suggest they look into Singapore's Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs).  There, constituencies are merged into larger constituencies and each party has to submit a list of candidates with rules on the demographic makeup of said list.  India (or now maybe Bharat) can do the same with rules on having Dalits, Tribals, and OBCs but also add requirements on women in said list.

[jaichind]

If this renaming India to Bharat thing is real I think what will take place is Modi will unveil it at the G-20 where he as the host will ask the other G-20 states to call him "PM of Bharat" and then use that international acceptance as leverage to push it through in the special parliamentary session.

[eos]

Latest rumor.  The special session of Parliament will be to officially rename India to Bharat.  I assume the play is a de-colonization play (India is the name the British came up with) similar to renaming Madras to Chennai.  Of course, it breaks up the new INDIA alliance name game.

The thing is the name India predates British rule. It’s derived from Classical sources from the river Sindh>Sindhus>Hind>Hindus>Indus or Sindhi>Hindi>Indian through Achaemenid Old Persian. In a way India or Indostan shares the same origin as terms like Hindustan.

Bharat is very much North Indian Hindu mythology. Not surprised with this at all, I always suspected sooner or later BJP might try to pull something like this. They try to disseminate North Indian Hindu gods like Rama and Khrishna as pan-Indian figures, whereas these two don’t really have much importance outside the Hindi belt.

[eos]

https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1698979799107240203

If this is the agenda I have to give credit to Modi for audacity.  In a normal year if an Indian PM gets one of those things done it would be viewed as quite consequential.  Now Modi seems to ram each of them through in one day.

It is clear why "One Nation One election", UCC, and renaming India to Bharat are very consequential.  But the Women's Reservation Bill is also massive.  It will basically set aside 1/3 of all political seats for women candidates.  This is on top of the set-asides for Dalits and Tribals. 

If this is the way India is going (quotas everywhere) I suggest they look into Singapore's Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs).  There, constituencies are merged into larger constituencies and each party has to submit a list of candidates with rules on the demographic makeup of said list.  India (or now maybe Bharat) can do the same with rules on having Dalits, Tribals, and OBCs but also add requirements on women in said list.

Women reservation bill would be massive. The way politics  are currently structured, anyone can win from a BJP ticket in the Hindi belt as long as Modi is on the ballot. INC and regional parties can’t afford the same luxury in India’s patriarchal culture, especially in the Hindi belt. Women BJP candidates will have a massive advantage over women candidates from INC and regional parties.

[CumbrianLefty]

If true, this is just pettiness over the opposition alliance taking the name it did isn't it?

[jaichind]

The thing is the name India predates British rule. It’s derived from Classical sources from the river Sindh>Sindhus>Hind>Hindus>Indus or Sindhi>Hindi>Indian through Achaemenid Old Persian. In a way India or Indostan shares the same origin as terms like Hindustan.

Bharat is very much North Indian Hindu mythology. Not surprised with this at all, I always suspected sooner or later BJP might try to pull something like this. They try to disseminate North Indian Hindu gods like Rama and Khrishna as pan-Indian figures, whereas these two don’t really have much importance outside the Hindi belt.

Yes, but Bharat is a word for India as well in Kannada and Telegu.  So the BJP did a good job in salami tactics to isolate language objections to Bharat to the Dravida Nadu areas of TN and Kerala.  Very clever to use this to split the Dravidian areas.  BJP will not win in Kerala and TN anyway so isolated them.

[jaichind]

I did some research online and my conclusion is that the BJP does NOT need a 2/3 majority of LS/RS plus 50% of assemblies to pull off One Country One vote.  What Modi can do is pass a one-time Constitutional amendment that changes the duration of all the state assemblies to end exactly the same date as the LS election date.  Since this does not change the role and responsibilities of the Union government and the state government then a 2/3 majority of LS/RS and 50% of the state assemblies is not required.

Now in theory this will not play well in states that just had their assembly elections recently ("We just voted 2 years ago so why should we vote again now") but if this can be coupled with a rebranding of India as Bharat I can see this being a political winner.

If Modi pulls this off I would argue this plus the other things (UCC, Women's reservation etc, etc.) make this 1865 of India or the Second Republic of India(Bharat.)  I always argued that the USA before and after 1865 with the 14th Amendment is so different that after 1865 should be thought of as the USA's Second Republic.  I think something similar could be taking place in  India (now Bharat)

[jaichind]

Some interesting side-effects of India->Bharat name change and India truly gives up the India name and all its rights.

1) BJP can claim that INC's name is anti-national and based on a name that is "slavery to West" The Same thing could apply to parties like AITC AIADMK and AINRC although the latter two are BJP allies.
2) Pakistan can come in to claim the name India and rename itself "Islamic Republic of India"

[jaichind]

If true, this is just pettiness over the opposition alliance taking the name it did isn't it?

Yes although it can fit a bigger narrative of a rebranding of India into Bharat as a new superpower that is freed of the slavery of the mind from the last 1000 years of slavery (Modi's words)

[eos]

Some interesting side-effects of India->Bharat name change and India truly gives up the India name and all its rights.

1) BJP can claim that INC's name is anti-national and based on a name that is "slavery to West" The Same thing could apply to parties like AITC AIADMK and AINRC although the latter two are BJP allies.
2) Pakistan can come in to claim the name India and rename itself "Islamic Republic of India"

I think the Indian government will be mindful of 2. The constitution currently says something like “India that is Bharat”. They could reverse the order and keep India as an additional name to prevent claims by Pakistan and maintain the country’s claim to the cultural heritage of the Indian subcontinent etc.

[jaichind]

A INC leader suggest INDIA alliance campaign slogan should be "BHARAT—Bring Harmony, Amity, Reconciliation And Trust."

https://twitter.com/Jairam_Ramesh/status/1698948535625126006?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

A INC leader suggest INDIA alliance campaign slogan should be "BHARAT—Bring Harmony, Amity, Reconciliation And Trust."

https://twitter.com/Jairam_Ramesh/status/1698948535625126006?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

pretty smart, actually.

[jaichind]

Some interesting side-effects of India->Bharat name change and India truly gives up the India name and all its rights.

1) BJP can claim that INC's name is anti-national and based on a name that is "slavery to West" The Same thing could apply to parties like AITC AIADMK and AINRC although the latter two are BJP allies.
2) Pakistan can come in to claim the name India and rename itself "Islamic Republic of India"

I think the Indian government will be mindful of 2. The constitution currently says something like “India that is Bharat”. They could reverse the order and keep India as an additional name to prevent claims by Pakistan and maintain the country’s claim to the cultural heritage of the Indian subcontinent etc.

Looks like Pakistan is already on it

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2023/09/05/pakistan-may-lay-claim-on-name-india-if-modi-govt-derecognises-it-officially-at-un.html

"'Pakistan may lay claim on name 'India' if Modi govt derecognises it officially at UN'"

The Pakistan claim would also be based on the fact that most of the Indus Valley is inside Pakistan today.

[jaichind]

A bunch of by-elections today of which counting will take place Friday.


WB Dhupguri
2021
BJP       46.1%
AITC     44.1%
CPM       5.8% (backed by INC)

BJP incumbent passed away.  The 2021 AITC candidate and 2016 winner defected to the BJP after AITC nominated someone else to back the BJP candidate.  A BJP rebel is in the fray which means most likely AITC flip


UP Ghosi
2022
SP       42.4%
BJP      33.7%
BSP     21.2%
INC      0.8%

SP incumbent who was with BJP until he defected to SP in 2022 defected back to BJP and will run for re-election as BJP.  My guess is SP will pick up the BSP vote and win.


Uttarakhand Bageshwar
2022
BJP       43.6%
INC       27.2%
AAP      21.8%

BJP incumbent passed away.  BJP is running his widow.  INC will run the 2022 AAP candidate The sympathy factor plus BJP being the incumbent government in Uttarakhand most likely BJP wins but it will be close as INC could win based on the INC-AAP vote fusion.


Jharkhand Dumri
2020
JMM      37.8% (backed by INC)
AJSU     19.6%
BJP       19.8%
AIMIM   12.8%

JMM incumbent passed away.  JMM will nominate his widow who will win mostly on the sympathy factor and JMM being the incumbent party in Jharkhand.  This is despite BJP backing AJSU this time and AIMIM still running the same candidate in 2020.


Kerala Puthuppally
2021
INC        48.3% (UDF)
CPM       41.4% (LDF)
BJP         8.9%

The INC incumbent who was the INC CM and a titan of Kerala politics Oommen Chandy passed away. INC will run his son who is expected to win despite the fact the fact that CPM is the incumbent party in Kerala.


Tripura Dhanpur
2022
BJP        42.3%
CPM      34..5% (backed by INC)
TIPRA    19.1%

The BJP MLA was also MP in the LS that ran in 2022 for assembly.  She resigned after choosing to keep her LS seat and give up her assembly seat.  This was the seat of the former CPM CM of Tripura.
 This time TIPRA will not run.  Most likely BJP will win as the tribal vote TIPRA won in 2022 most likely lean BJP.


Tripura Boxanagar
2022
CPM       50.3% (backed by INC)
BJP        37.8%
TIPRA      7.8%

The CPM MLA passed away.  This is a heavy Muslim seat and even the BJP candidate is a Muslim.  TIPRA will not run.  Most likely CPM keeps the seat despite BJP being the incumbent party in Tripura.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I did some research online and my conclusion is that the BJP does NOT need a 2/3 majority of LS/RS plus 50% of assemblies to pull off One Country One vote.  What Modi can do is pass a one-time Constitutional amendment that changes the duration of all the state assemblies to end exactly the same date as the LS election date.  Since this does not change the role and responsibilities of the Union government and the state government then a 2/3 majority of LS/RS and 50% of the state assemblies is not required.

Now in theory this will not play well in states that just had their assembly elections recently ("We just voted 2 years ago so why should we vote again now") but if this can be coupled with a rebranding of India as Bharat I can see this being a political winner.

If Modi pulls this off I would argue this plus the other things (UCC, Women's reservation etc, etc.) make this 1865 of India or the Second Republic of India(Bharat.)  I always argued that the USA before and after 1865 with the 14th Amendment is so different that after 1865 should be thought of as the USA's Second Republic.  I think something similar could be taking place in  India (now Bharat)

What's the point of having all the state elections take place with the federal election. I thought this would be all the states holding the federal election on the same day

[jaichind]

What's the point of having all the state elections take place with the federal election. I thought this would be all the states holding the federal election on the same day

Theoretical reasons:
1) Lower the overall cost of elections by doing them together
2) Lower the time Model Code of Conduct is in effect.  Basically, during election time the government could NOT roll out any new policies.   By putting all elections within a short time period one makes the time when the government cannot operate as short as possible

Real reason:
1) BJP is all about Modi and making sure Modi is at the top of the ticket for all elections at once will help BJP

[jaichind]

This is getting confusing.  Modi's visit to Indonesia now calls Modi PM of Bharat but the meeting is still called the ASEAN-India Summit.  I guess Modi needs ASEAN's agreement to change the name of the summit but can call himself whatever title he wants.

[eos]

Nine Leaders, Including BJP MLA, Join Congress in Madhya Pradesh Ahead of Elections

Among them is Bhanwar Singh Shekhwat, who is a two-time MP and a very prominent name in the Madhya Pradesh BJP circle. Reports say he was upset with the BJP ever since he was denied the ticket to contest Badnawar assembly bypoll in 2020.

Defections from BJP to INC continue in MP.

[eos]

Lok Sabha polls with AP, Telangana elections in mid-January

HYDERABAD: The BJP central leadership is said to have hinted to the Chief Ministers of two Telugu states over the possibility of holdig semi-jamili polls — combining Assembly polls of at least 13 states with Lok Sabha polls —in January 2024.

The BJP in Telangana state is currently on a damage control mission. The party, it is learnt, has realised its folly and the backlash it received in Telangana vis-a-vis the removal of the state party chief, Bandi Sanjay. This raised suspicions that the BJP entered into a secret pact with the ruling BRS for future cooperation.

More one nation one election rumours. Also, seems BJP is in a bad position in Telangana.

BRS was facing ED pressure, but BJP had relaxed it recently. Maybe overtures/threats for a post-poll alliance in 2024 if needed.

Meanwhile, Central agencies probing sensitive cases including the Delhi liquor scam — in which Chandrashekar Rao’s daughter K. Kavitha is facing investigation — are expected to step up their investigation.

"Two developments in quick succession — replacing the aggressive Bandi Sanjay with a soft Kishan Reddy and the lull in Central agencies’ investigation in the Delhi liquor scam — badly hit the state BJP’s credibility.