India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

AITC poster of INDIA alliance.   It does not try to project WB AITC CM Mamata Banerjee as the sole leader of the alliance but does place her at near the center of the pictures of alliance leaders.

[jaichind]

SP poster of new INDIA alliance.  It places SP leader and former UP CM Akhilesh Yadav at the center of the image of leaders.

[jaichind]

RJD poster of the INDIA alliance has Bihar RJD DCM Tejashwi Yadav at the center of the image of leaders.

[jaichind]

For the INDIA alliance assuming no seat-sharing in WB, Kerala, and Punjab the main seat-sharing problems will be between INC and AAP in Delhi and Gujarat.   INC will demand from AAP 2-3 out of the 7 Delhi seats and AAP will demand 1 seat in Haryana and 1-2 seats in Gujarat which the local INC will refuse to accept.   I can see some compromise where the Gujuart INC will give up 1 seat to AAP (for the good of the party) in return for 3 INC seats in Delhi but it will be difficult to get to this compromise.

On the NDA side clearly seat-sharing talks in Maharastra between BJP, SHS(Shinde) and NCP(Ajit Pawar) will be hard.  BJP can delay the evil day by asking for more LS seats in return for more seats for SHS(Shinde) and NCP(Ajit Pawar) in the assembly elections later in 2024.  But such a deal only just creates a bigger blowup when the assembly election comes.

[jaichind]

Another Tamil actor to enter politics; Vijay prepares the ground
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/south/another-tamil-actor-to-enter-politics-vijay-prepares-the-ground-1238009.html

So Tamil actor Vijay plans on entering politics once the 2026 elections gets closer. I expect his party to flop or it will be pretty successful.

It seems the power of TN cinema continues to be powerful.  All big regional parties in TN have their foundation linked to the movie industry in some way.

[jaichind]

In 2020 I made some predictions on how upcoming assembly elections will go.  Lets see how I did.

My guess for the significant assembly elections over the next few years

2020 Bihar - Narrow incumbent JD(U)-BJP victory over RJD-INC. 
2021 WB - Incumbent AITC defeats BJP with INC and Left Front totally marginalized.  WB would have gone from a Left Front-INC bipolar state in 1998 to a AITC-BJP bipolar state in 2021.
2021 TN - DMK-INC victory over incumbent AIADMK-BJP
2021 Assam - Narrow incumbent BJP-AGP-BPF victory over INC with tactical alliance with AIUDF.  Anti-CAA AASU-AJYCP is likely to form a new party and could throw the election to INC if they form a tactical alliance with INC
2021 Kerala - INC led UDF defeats Left Front led incumbent LDF
2021 J&K - JKN-INC defeats BJP with JKN sweeping Kashmir and INC with JKN support sweeping Muslim areas in Jammu while BJP sweep Hindu part of Jammu
2022 Punjab - SAD-BJP narrowly defeats incumbent INC. 
2022 Uttarakhand - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 UP - incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over a resurgent SP
2022 HP - INC defeats incumbent BJP
2022 Gujarat - INC narrowly defeats incumbent BJP
2023 Karnataka - INC defeats incumbent BJP.   
2023 MP - Incumbent BJP narrowly wins re-election over INC
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS wins re-election over both INC and BJP split the anti-TRS vote

2020 Bihar - hit it on the nail
2021 WB - hit it on the nail including Left Front-INC marginalization
2021 TN  - correct
2021 Assam - hit it on the nail.  vote share between the two blocs was very close
2021 Kerala - total flop.  Left front gained seats from INC+
2021 J&K - election deferred
2022 Punjab - total flop. The SAD-BJP alliance broke up due to farm laws allowing the anti-INC vote to consolidate around AAP who won a landslide win
2022 Uttarakhand - incorrect.  INC made gains but was not enough
2022 Gujarat - total flop.  Underestimated the role of Modi and the AAP surge that split the anti-BJP vote
2022 UP - mostly correct.  BJP won by a good margin and not a narrow margin
2022 HP - correct
2023 Karnataka - correct

For the rest of 2023, my guess is the same except for MP where I now expect INC to narrowly win

2023 MP - INC narrowly beats ruling BJP
2023 Rajasthan - BJP defeats incumbent INC
2023 Chhattisgarh - Incumbent INC wins re-election over BJP
2023 Telangana - TRS wins re-election over both INC and BJP split the anti-TRS vote

[jaichind]

In response to the opposition alliance calling itself INDIA, Assam BJP CM Himanta Biswa Sarma changes the reference to India in his Twitter handle from India to Bharat

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/deeply-disturbed-simply-unacceptable-chief-justice-of-india-dy-chandrachud-on-manipur-horror-4224454

"If Government Doesn't Act, We Will": Supreme Court On Manipur Horror"

Manipur violence continues with some shocking videos of Kuki women forced to march naked by a Meitei mob.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66161599

"Manipur violence: India condemns EU Parliament resolution on ethnic violence"

In the meantime, the EU parliament passes a result on Manipur blaming Hindu nationalism.  India reactions strongly which I support.  First, this is an internal matter of India so the EU should not be poking their nose into this affair.  Second, saying this is about Hindu nationalism is clearly simplifying things and one of a hammer looking for a nail.

One way or another the situation in Manipur does not get better with the state de facto splitting into Meitei, Kuki, and Naga regions.  I am not sure what the point of Manipur BJP CM N Biren Singh staying in office since his writ only extends to the Meitei-dominated Imphal valley.  His title should really be "mayor of Imphal" at this stage.

[jaichind]

Note that the video of the two Kuki women being forced to march naked by a Meitei mob was from two months ago.  But now the video is out in the public domain the Meitei-dominated police will now act to identify and arrest key leaders of the Meitei mob.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/bihar-cm-nitish-kumar-upset-as-he-was-not-made-convener-of-opposition-alliance-sushil-modi-527094

"Bihar CM Nitish Kumar upset, as he was not made convener of opposition alliance: Sushil Modi"

The next INDIA opposition alliance meeting will be in Mumbai where a convener will be selected.  It is clear that Nitish Kumar is hoping to get that job.  I do not think Nitish Kumar is looking to be PM but wanted to be a key kingmaker in the opposition bloc ergo he wants this role. 

RJD is also pushing for Nitish Kumar to get this role since that would mean that Nitish Kumar would shift to national politics opening the way for RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav to take over as the Bihar CM leading the RJD-JD(U)-INC-CPM(ML) government.  Many in Bihar JD(U) are fearful of this likely possibility as it means loss of influence for them and will lobby for Nitish Kumar to stay in Bihar politics.  In the long run, JD(U) will be eaten up by BJP and RJD as Nitish Kumar either moves to national politics or eventually retires from the political scene.

[jaichind]

Por-INC Lok poll has INC ahead in BJP in MP.  Once you take into account of house effects and incumbent over polling I would say the race right now is neck-to-neck

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/opinion-columns/story/sonia-gandhi-may-enter-rajya-sabha-via-karnataka-route-2409752-2023-07-21

"Sonia Gandhi may enter Rajya Sabha via Karnataka route"

It seems in the 2024 LS elections Sonia Gandhi most likely will hand Raebareli over to Priyanka Gandhi and she enter RS via Karnataka.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/east-and-northeast/meiteis-flee-mizoram-after-warning-by-ex-insurgents-in-the-wake-of-manipur-viral-video-1239668.html

"Meiteis flee Mizoram after 'warning' by ex-insurgents in the wake of Manipur viral video"

Manipur civil war spread to Mizoram.  Mizos are genetically and culturally very close to Kukis and clearly side with Kukis in the current Manipur conflict.  Former Mizo insurgents now threaten on social media Meiteis to leave Mizoram or else which has triggered a surge of Meiteis racing back to Manipur and in particular Meitei dominated Imphal valley.

This latest threat clearly is in response to the video that came out a few days ago of two Kuki women who were sexually assaulted and then force to march naked with a mob of Meiteis.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/tension-in-haryana-kaithal-mihir-bhoj-statue-mass-resignation-bjp-2409387-2023-07-20

"Tension in Haryana's Kaithal over Mihir Bhoj statue, mass resignation in BJP"

Haryana BJP is being split by a long-running controversy over the communal identity of King Mihir Bhoj of the Gurjara-Pratihara dynasty who ruled over Northern India in the 800s.  CW's history has as being a Rajput but the Gujjar also claim him as their own.  This dispute has been going on for a while, leading to tensions between Rajputs and Gujjars.  A few days ago the Haryana government put up a statue of King Mihir Bhoj and labeled him as a Gujjar ruler.  This has led to backlash with the Haryana Rajputs with many key Rajput BJP leaders quitting the BJP in protest.

[jaichind]

AITC poster attacking Modi and the recent violence in Manipur with linking Modi to Oppenheimer as the "destroyer of worlds"


In response, a BJP poster attacking WB AITC CM Mamata Banerjee (nickname Didi or Elder Sister) as the tyrant and dictator of WB and supported by the opposition INDIA alliance


I think this exchange is a victory for the INDIA opposition alliance as it forced the BJP poster to use the INDIA term to depict the opposition alliance.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is so frustrating that in India, so many view us as horrible for dropping the Nukes on Japan. Many associate Japan with how Japan is now and when I explain them the stuff Japan did in WW2, they usually cant believe it.

[jaichind]

It is so frustrating that in India, so many view us as horrible for dropping the Nukes on Japan. Many associate Japan with how Japan is now and when I explain them the stuff Japan did in WW2, they usually cant believe it.

I think it has to do with the fact that Japan backed Subhas Chandra Bose and his INA as part of their invasion of India in 1944.  Subhas Chandra Bose is considered a great Indian national hero across the political spectrum in India.   The fact that Japan was backing him during WWII must have the typical Indian positive on WWII Japan as well.

[jaichind]

Ground Zero poll for MP assembly also has INC slightly ahead.  Ground Zero also has an anti-BJP lean.  Given that this poll is consistent with the tossup narrative for MP.   

[jaichind]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

[eos]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

[eos]

Chhattisgarh Deputy CM TS Singdheo proclaims support for incumbent CM Bhupest Baghel if INC retains power in 2023. I suspect if INC narrowly retains power, there could be another power tussle Link

Chhattisgarh: If Congress wins, Bhupesh Baghel to be first in line for CM post, says Deputy CM TS Singhdeo

Chhattisgarh Deputy Chief Minister TS Singhdeo today (July 23) said the Congress would fight the assembly polls 2023 under a collective leadership helmed by Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and if the party wins, Baghel would be first in line to be considered for the post of CM
While speaking to the media, TS Singhdeo said if an incumbent chief minister has not been removed, it means the party maintains its belief in that person being able to lead the team to victory, and after the win why should the captain be changed.

He also predicted the Congress was likely to bag another resounding mandate in the 90-member assembly, saying some are projecting 75-plus seats for his party but his estimate is anywhere between 60 to 75-plus. The Congress had won 68 seats in the 2018 assembly polls.

Only partial article snippets are allowed for copyright reasons

[eos]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

BJP is being quite foolish on Manipur if you ask me. If it was Assam and Himanta's chief ministership on the line, I'd understand, but Manipur is too irrelevant to capture the hearts and minds of BJP voters in north India. I think there is a push from the BJP hard right because of the Hindu and Christian dynamics of Manipur.

[eos]

Given the endless violence and now the blowup of the video of two Kuki women being sexually assaulted and forced to mark naked by a Meitei mob there has been more and more pressure for Manipur CM N. Biren Singh to be removed.  But there seems to be no sign of this taking place.

The reason why is N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Back in 2002 during the Gujarat riots, there was pressure within the moderate wing of the BJP as well as NDA allies for BJP PM Vajpayee to sack Modi as CM of Gujarat.   Vajpayee was stopped from doing this due to the intervention of BJP DPM and BJP #2 Advani.   Advani's argument was that getting rid of Modi could create a split in the BJP as Modi has become the hero of the Hindu nationalist Right wing of the BJP.  Furthermore, Advani argued, the BJP must keep its core Hindu nationalist vote base.  Of course, in 2013 Modi repaid Advani's intervention in 2002 that saved his political career by overthrowing him as the leader of the BJP and taking over himself.

A very similar dynamic is taking place now.  N. Biren Singh has control of the Meitei vote in Manipur which is now the core BJP vote in Manipur.  Removing N. Biren Singh would merely mean a split in the Manipur BJP.  In other words, N. Biren Singh has become Modi's Modi.  Of course, the risk the BJP takes by leaving N. Biren Singh in place given the national attention on the Manipur violence would be the impact on the women and tribal vote.  The BJP has been gaining with the women and tribal vote last few years and not resolving the Manipur crisis is likely to erode BJP gains at the national level just in time for the 2024 LS elections.

Didn't Modi also call a Snap Election in 2002 and his landslide win made it impossible for Vajpayee to remove Modi

The snap election made it more difficult to remove Modi, yes, but Vajpayee and Advani combined had enough pull to remove him if they both agreed. Before Modi, Advani was the icon of Hindutva, and credited with the progress of the Ram Temple movement. It's funny in hindsight because centrist BJP leaders and sympathetic media have spent the last 10 years trying to rebrand Advani as a Hinduvta moderate who opposed Modi's more "hardline" approach. To be honest, it's less about Hinduvta, and more about the real or perceived decentralisation of BJP high command during the pre-Modi era. It will be interesting to see if, and when, Yogi becomes PM, whether they try to rebrand Modi as a moderate if they need an ideal past leader within the BJP to counter him.

My guess is the BJP post Modi will have many of the issues the GOP had post Reagan. When the charismatic leader who brought their parties to the promise land left , many of the divisions that were covered up in the years he was in charge started to come out.

Just like with the GOP under Reagan, there are many hardliners who think Modi has not gonna far enough and moderates who think hes gone to far and I think those divisions will cause major issues for the BJP post Modi. Imo taking advantage of that schism with a rebranded INC will be how the BJP gets booted from office too.

I have become quite cynical and think BJP is always a Pakistan incident away from a landslide in every LS election. Voter mindsets have changed drastically in recent years. Even the Kargil War in 1999 didn't really help BJP in the elections later that year. However, LS elections have become a de facto referendum on Indian nationalism, at least, in the North. How much of that is actually Modi's personal popularity remains to be seen. If it's just Modi, I'd agree that INC can come back into power. However, if the voters mainly like the nationalist brand projected by BJP, I wouldn't be surprised to see future BJP landslides under someone like Yogi. I think it's more likely a combination of the two factors, and if so, BJP will certainly be weakened without Modi. Then again, who knows if Yogi could or couldn't capture and project that kind of personal popularity. One thing that Modi had going for him was the public perception of being a successful civilian administrator and troubleshooter, in addition to Hinduvta credentials. I don't think Yogi can pull that off, but the pro-BJP media has been trying to brush up his administrative credentials.