India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

Part of the reason why pro-BJP filmmakers choose to make the "Love Jihad" story about Kerala is due to the fact that due to higher incomes and secularization the Kerala Hindu birth rates have fallen a lot last 20 years while the Muslim birth rates have fallen in but not by as much.



This is not the trend in the Hindi heartland where Hindu birth rates are similar to Muslim birth rates. This is the warning from the pro-BJP camp: If you become like Kerala you will be swamped by Muslims who will outbreed you and convert your women to be Muslim under "Love Jihad".

Note that the Christian birth rate is also falling in relative terms.  In Kerala, the BJP has been trying to appeal to the Christian vote trying to make an argument that their existence is at stake too.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/ncp-succession-saga-sharad-pawar-seeks-time-to-rethink-as-party-panel-rejects-his-resignation/articleshow/100009600.cms?from=mdr

"NCP 'succession' saga ends with Sharad Pawar back in the top post"

The NCP committee that is looking into the successor for Sharad Pawar rejected his resignation and  Sharad Pawar has decided to take their decision and revoked his resignation

I am not sure what Sharad Pawar is up to.  It could be this is an act of what we Chinese call 引蛇出洞 (lure the snake out of the hole).  By resigning  Sharad Pawar can then observe the actions of various NCP leaders and how they interact with Ajit Pawar to get a sense of where Ajit Pawar and other loyalties lie.  Once he collected the data Sharad Pawar then revokes his resignation. 

[jaichind]

The opposition is saying that BJP Home Minister Amit Shah is spending all this time campaigning in Karnataka and as a result let the Manipur situation get out of control.   It seems the local Manipur security force has completely broken down and only the army can restore law and order at this stage.

[jaichind]

Hindu nationalism is much stronger in the Hindi North but there are more Hindu temples in the South.  This mostly is about relative income since it will cost money to build and maintain a temple.

[jaichind]

Modi does a big roadshow in Karnataka.  The level of support for BJP might be in trouble in Karnataka but Modi still seems very popular.  The real question is how much of Modi's support can be transferred to BJP election day.

[jaichind]

Final pro-INC Lok Poll survey for Karnataka.

INC      132      43.5%
BJP        62       31.2%
JD(S)     25        16%

[jaichind]

Final C-Voter poll for Karnataka

JD(S) loses some ground to INC compared to their previous poll but mostly same as their previous poll

[jaichind]

Karnataka voting is Wed.  Most betting shops have odds something like INC 126 BJP 66 with a clear majority for INC.

[jaichind]

Pro-BJP film "The Kerala Story" is officially released today.

The film is about a bunch of Kerala Hindu women that were converted to Islam under "Love Jihad" (married to a Muslim man who then converted their new wife to Islam) and then shipped off to Syria to be a part of ISIS.  In theory, this is based on a real story but many on the Center-Left in India seem to dispute this.  One thing is for sure, even if this is true clearly this is something that is very rare.

Note that the movie "Kerala Story" is banned in AITC-ruled WB but will be shown tax-free in BJP-ruled UP and MP.

[jaichind]

Unlike the Gujarat and HP assembly elections in late 2022, the Gandhi clan is spending a lot of time campaigning in Karnataka.  They must feel INC's chances are pretty good so they want to make sure they get some credit for the likely INC win.

[jaichind]

Voting is in progress in Karnataka.  Exit polls will be out soon after voting ends.

I still hold to my back-of-the-envelope seat by seat guess of

INC   110
BJP     87
JD(S)  27

We will see what the exit poll say

[jaichind]

Karnataka exit polls so far.  Mixed bag just like pre-election polls


 

[CumbrianLefty]

There are usually some exit polls that go against the trend, aren't there?

[jaichind]

South First - Peoples Pulse exit poll.  I think this firm has a pro-INC bias

[jaichind]

There are usually some exit polls that go against the trend, aren't there?

Exactly. 

My algorithm on exit polls -> projection

Again my algorithm (adjusted somewhat) of converting exit polls to seat projection

Again the algorithm is
1) First un-skew Todays Chanakya's exit polls to adjust for its pro-BJP house affect
2) Look at pollsters which did pre-election surveys and exit polls to see if all/most of them point to a particular party is doing better in the exit polls relative to pre-poll survey.  Then
  a) If Yes, then the most optimistic of the exit polls for said party and use that as the projection
  b) If No, then just use the average of exit polls as the projection
3) Is the ruling party/front being defeated using the projection from 2)
 a) If Yes, add some extra seats to the winning opposition party/front
 b) If No, leave result from 2) alone
4) If the winning party is BJP then repeat starting at step 2) WITHOUT un-skewing Todays Chanakya's exit polls
 

The basic idea is that we have to look at exit poll momentum vs pre-election polls plus that exit polls as well as pre-election polls tend to have a pro-incumbency factor.

[jaichind]

The only big exit poll left - is Axis My India.  They are dragging it out by region.  So far INC seems to be ahead although they are not done yet.

[jaichind]

The outstanding region left for Axis-My India to cover is Old Mysore which is an INC-JD(S) battleground.  If so then the Axis-My India exit poll will clearly have a INC majority by itself when everything is announced.

[jaichind]

Axis-My India says that for Old Mysore there is a swing from JD(S) to BJP which actually helps INC win a bunch of seats.  INC wins 36 seats out of 63 and drives JD(S) to 18.

This means the Axis-My India exit poll is

INC     128
BJP       70
JD(S)    22

Solid INC majority

[jaichind]

Axis My India exit poll

          Seat    Vote share
INC      129         43%
BJP        70         35%
JD(S)     22         16%
Others     3           6%

[jaichind]

Today's Chanakya exit poll (pro-BJP bias)

INC      120    42%
BJP        92    39%
JD(S)     12    13%

They have JD(S) collapse and polarization between BJP and INC to produce an INC majority.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Spick Media exit poll actually has a more muted victory for INC

[jaichind]

Axis My India official exit poll table

[jaichind]

All things equal the exit polls are better for INC vis-a-vis pre-election polls by pollsters.   If so the INC surge is most likely being underestimated.  It is very likely that we will get an INC majority and likely a large INC majority.

[jaichind]

In 2018 the anti-incumbent vote went from INC to JD(S) leading to INC's defeat but no majority for BJP.  In 2023 the anti-incumbent vote went from JD(S) back to INC leading to an INC majority.

[jaichind]

There is a bloc of pro-JD(S) anti-INC vote in Karnataka that tend to vote JD(S) in assembly election and votes BJP in LS elections.  The BJP growth in Old Mysore indicates that this vote is voting in greater numbers for BJP in assembly elections.  On top of that INC getting a swing from both JD(S) and BJP which means BJP does not lose that much overall vote share but is swamped by a surging INC as JD(S) plummets.