Does your family know Herschel Walker won ED runoff vote by less than he did a month ago?
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  Does your family know Herschel Walker won ED runoff vote by less than he did a month ago?
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Author Topic: Does your family know Herschel Walker won ED runoff vote by less than he did a month ago?  (Read 472 times)
Adam Griffin
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« on: December 07, 2022, 12:09:58 AM »
« edited: December 07, 2022, 12:16:15 AM by Adam Griffin »

The fact that Walker is losing with what will probably be 1.7m ED votes is way more embarrassing than some can yet fathom. I only considered this level of ED turnout if urban Ds saw the long lines and just waited to vote until ED as a result.

Walker is currently winning ED vote 57.2-42.8 (+14.4 points). How embarrassing. THAT IS LESS THAN HE WON THE ELECTION DAY VOTE BY IN NOVEMBER (15.4 points; 56.3-40.9).

Urban Democrats didn't want to wait in line - and they surged the polls on Election Day.

This doesn't even factor in that most of the [ED] vote outstanding comes from Fulton and Dekalb, which will be well in excess of 50% Warnock!

For reference, Warnock currently leads in the EV by 16.8 points (58.4-41.6).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2022, 12:32:48 AM »

I think analysts got way too high on projecting 2020 EV/ED turnout off into eternity.  People just didn't want to get sick.  Plenty of workplaces that are in-person during normal times have a policy of closing early or opening late on election day as well.   
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Reactionary Libertarian
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2022, 12:41:20 AM »

Kemp pumped up the numbers for him.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2022, 01:10:55 AM »

I voted in-person on election day in November, so did most Democrats I knew...

I always thought it was odd that people thought the 2020 trends would continue indefinitely. If Dems have an edge now in absentee/early vote, it's because Trump's insane conspiracy theories about your vote not counting unless you cast it in-person still have influence among rightists. Not because Democrats are still afraid of COVID or something.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2022, 01:17:48 AM »

My family is sane.

So no.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2022, 01:51:38 AM »

My dad definitely does, he's a massive political nerd like me.

Decent chance my sister does. Zero chance my mom does.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2022, 02:48:18 AM »

I voted in-person on election day in November, so did most Democrats I knew...

I always thought it was odd that people thought the 2020 trends would continue indefinitely. If Dems have an edge now in absentee/early vote, it's because Trump's insane conspiracy theories about your vote not counting unless you cast it in-person still have influence among rightists. Not because Democrats are still afraid of COVID or something.

The issue regarding Georgia is that - contrary to a lot of the "voter suppression" rhetoric (some of it is legitimate, but a good amount is not) - Georgia has had and continues to have fairly flexible and liberal voting laws compared to the country as a whole: a minimum of 17 days of EV in regular elections (up to 19 days for counties that choose to offer Sunday voting), no-excuse absentee in-person and mail voting, automatic ABMs for every election in a cycle once somebody who is 65+, disabled or a veteran applies for one that year, automatic voter registration via DMV, voter registration or change/update info processes via SoS website, seamless ABM application processes via the SoS, etc).

It might surprise you to know that in a regular election (or at least a high-turnout one, like the 2021 or 2022 runoffs), the last time a minority of Georgia's voters cast ballots early was 2014. We're over a decade into the bulk of voters casting their ballots before Election Day.

Quote
2022-GE   64.1%
2021-RO   70.4%
2020-GE   80.3%

2018-RO   31.1%
2018-GE   53.7%
2016-GE   58.6%

2014-GE   36.8%
2012-GE   50.8%

Voters in Georgia are conditioned to vote early, irrespective of 2020 trends (which weren't sustainable: 26% of GA's vote was cast by mail in that election, as an example). As far as the share of the electorate who voted on Election Day in the runoff, however, this was - by contemporary standards - rather large and unprecedented.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2022, 11:32:12 AM »

FWIW & in the final ED runoff tally, Walker won the runoff ED by 13.72 points (56.86-43.14), compared to 15.49 in the November GE (56.31-40.82).

Walker did almost 2 points worst in ED vote in the runoff when compared to the GE.
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