Mississippi Megathread 2023

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think Presley will cut Reeves margin from 35.000 on election night to around 18.000 after the certified statewide results.

Net gain of 17.000 votes, with the late ballots and provisionals.

This will shrink Reeves margin from 51.6-47.0 to around 50.8-48.0

[smoltchanov]

I think Presley will cut Reeves margin from 35.000 on election night to around 18.000 after the certified statewide results.

Net gain of 17.000 votes, with the late ballots and provisionals.

This will shrink Reeves margin from 51.6-47.0 to around 50.8-48.0

Very good result given all circumstances. But we all know - it's almost impossible for Democrat to get remaining 2% (or 1,5% if we exclude third party vote). Mississippi isn't Massachusetts, Vermont or even Maryland.....

[Tartarus Sauce]

It’s still wild to me that Reeves won Lafayette County given how strong a performance Presley put up.

[MT Treasurer]

Given the closeness of this race (my Toss-up rating looking less and less ridiculous as the margin narrows), it’s highly likely that Pressley would have won if Trump had been President. He ran a near-perfect campaign, but sharing a party label with Biden and national Ds being this toxic was too big a drag on him.

It does make Andy Beshear's performance look all the more impressive, but I strongly suspect turnout patterns favored Ds much more in KY than in MS.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I think Presley will cut Reeves margin from 35.000 on election night to around 18.000 after the certified statewide results.

Net gain of 17.000 votes, with the late ballots and provisionals.

This will shrink Reeves margin from 51.6-47.0 to around 50.8-48.0

Hinds and Rankin counties have not released their official results yet, with late and provision ballots.

Without these two, it will not be possible to make a statewide prediction for me - but there are at least thousands of votes in Hinds alone that Presley will net.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What is the final margin expected to be?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

What is the final margin expected to be?

Hi Arizona Ice Tea,

good that you ask:

I posted above that I expect Reeves' margin to fall by about half from what it was on election night, see New York Times reporting for more. It was about Reeves +35.000 votes on election night. But based on trends from 3 larger counties, Presley is on track to NET an additional 10.000 to 20.000 votes. But this may not be entirely possible to predict right now, because only 70 of the 82 counties have released final results so far. And the large counties Hinds and Rankin are still missing.

If Reeves' 51.6-47.0 margin from election night, or +4.6, is cut in half, it would result in a final margin of around +2.3 for him, but it will probably slightly larger, at around 50.8-48.0 - give or take 0.3% in either direction. I think the remaining 12 counties should post their results next week.

[Roll Roons]

How is it taking this long to count the last few ballots? Mississippi is not a big VBM state at all.

Also the craziest thing about Presley winning Forrest County is that this county is literally named for the founder of the KKK.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

How is it taking this long to count the last few ballots? Mississippi is not a big VBM state at all.

Also the craziest thing about Presley winning Forrest County is that this county is literally named for the founder of the KKK.

2 weeks to count the remaining votes is actually not so long.

Other states take much longer, for example California or Arizona, or Ohio or New York, who need 4 to 8 weeks after election day to publish final results.

[Roll Roons]

How is it taking this long to count the last few ballots? Mississippi is not a big VBM state at all.

Also the craziest thing about Presley winning Forrest County is that this county is literally named for the founder of the KKK.

2 weeks to count the remaining votes is actually not so long.

Other states take much longer, for example California or Arizona, or Ohio or New York, who need 4 to 8 weeks after election day to publish final results.

The problem is that Mississippi now mandates statewide runoffs if no one gets over 50%, and the runoff would have happened on November 28.

[Spectator]

I think if Trump were a second-term President that Presley very well may have won.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Looks like the margin might well end up thinning out on this one a bit more, then. Thought Presley posted up a respectable enough performance already but it might well just become a little more so (even though Reeves' overall victory is not in doubt). Anyone rate his chances for an open seat rerun in 2027 (especially if Trump wins next year) or would that just be a Stacey Abrams-style redux?

Also, is there likely to be any further revision of the Kentucky results like this or are they unlikely to move much?

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone rate his chances for an open seat rerun in 2027 (especially if Trump wins next year) or would that just be a Stacey Abrams-style redux?

Nobody should be speculating about this, beyond the fact that he is probably to be the candidate with his age and the limited state bench. Four years is a generation in the political scene. That is especially the case when we are talking about a race that will only be competitive because of local factors, scandals, and personalities - not trends or shifts in voter behavior like Georgia. Those factors are impossible to discern this far out.

[wbrocks67]

Reeves' margin is now down to +3.5% per CNN, 51.1% to 47.6%.

[jvmh2009]

Reeves' margin is now down to +3.5% per CNN, 51.1% to 47.6%.

So close but yet so far.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

[7,052,770]

I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

It is? I've never noticed that.

[Oryxslayer]

I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

Jones didn't really win by converting Republicans to his tent, outside of the handful of places you would expect it like the Birmingham suburbs. He mainly won cause the GOP coalition refused to turn out and vote for a pedo. Knowing the seat would return to them in a few years helped in that regard. That would suggest a larger lead cause the Dem base is larger.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

Yet that was the poll that caused so much hysteria for the presidential race.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

Yes, Presley probably had momentum after August as around then we regularly had 20% of the voters have no idea who Presley was (in favorability polls). The difference is that both Trump and Biden are well-known at this point. This was the state of the race in August:



Keep trying to unskew polls though. They underestimated Walker by 2 points and had an average bias of 0 in off-years.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

Yet that was the poll that caused so much hysteria for the presidential race.

Yes and they were 100% accurate in 2022. Surely this didn't have anything to do with it:

[smoltchanov]

I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

It is? I've never noticed that.

IMHO - BOTH are extremely polarized. Number of white legislators in Democratic caucus is a good metric of that. Alabama: 1 state Senator plus 2 state representatives, Mississippi (new): 2 state Senators plus 1 state representative, Louisiana (new): 1 state Senator plus 5 state representatives (including 2 from New Orleans, which is much more liberal then typical southern area). Essentially in all 3 states Democratic party is a "Black party".. That numbers are the lowest since Blacks began to vote in Civil Rights era... Obviously some "shrinkage" was expected when Blacks began to get elected from majority Black (usually) districts instead of whites, but such almost complete wipeout - ..... In addition - of 4 white Democratic state senators 3 represent majority Black districts now: only Hob Bryan from 40% Black district in Mississippi manages to combine solid support from Blacks with enough from whites to win. But when he retires (possibly in 2027, when he will be 75) - district will go Republican too.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

Yes, Presley probably had momentum after August as around then we regularly had 20% of the voters have no idea who Presley was (in favorability polls). The difference is that both Trump and Biden are well-known at this point. This was the state of the race in August:



Keep trying to unskew polls though. They underestimated Walker by 2 points and had an average bias of 0 in off-years.

Are you an AI chat bot or something? Literally no one is unskewing anything. The bottom line is Siena's poll was way off. That's not unskewing; maybe you should take a look at the dictionary.

Even high quality pollsters can be wrong sometimes, it's kind of wild that you are living and dying by this.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

Yes, Presley probably had momentum after August as around then we regularly had 20% of the voters have no idea who Presley was (in favorability polls). The difference is that both Trump and Biden are well-known at this point. This was the state of the race in August:



Keep trying to unskew polls though. They underestimated Walker by 2 points and had an average bias of 0 in off-years.

Are you an AI chat bot or something? Literally no one is unskewing anything. The bottom line is Siena's poll was way off. That's not unskewing; maybe you should take a look at the dictionary.

Even high quality pollsters can be wrong sometimes, it's kind of wild that you are living and dying by this.

35% of voters didn't know about Presley in August. That clearly changed in September/October.

On the other hand, nearly 100% of voters know about Trump or Biden.