Mississippi Megathread 2023

[wbrocks67]

Re: "Anonymous Republican operatives"

Probably a tactic to get the RGA to spend some money.

RGA is already spending money

[Mr. Matt]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

Even sadder.

The previous method of a non-majority gubernatorial election in MS was still even sadder.

[Birdish]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

Even sadder.

The previous method of a non-majority gubernatorial election in MS was still even sadder.

Very much so. Post reconstruction deep south politics is incredibly depressing. My comment wasn't to make light of that, just a flippant response about me forgetting about the Mississippi run off law. In my defense, there hasn't ever been one.

[Rjjr77]

Democrat internals cant get Presley over 46%, its toast. If Presley wins its one of the biggest upsets ever, and this no where seems like the state, cycle, or the guy to do it

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrat internals cant get Presley over 46%, its toast. If Presley wins its one of the biggest upsets ever, and this no where seems like the state, cycle, or the guy to do it

I'm there with you. I just don't see Presley getting more than the typical 46% for a Democrat in the state.

[Spectator]

Much as I’d like to see Presley win for the sake of having a sane, conservative Democrat in the monolithically red south, I won’t believe it will happen until I see it.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

[wbrocks67]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

If there is somewhere they are not shifting, it is most definitely MS, especially with Reeves.

[Xing]

It's not clear if they're concerned because Reeves actually looks like he's in danger of losing or because he's not ahead by nearly as much as they'd like. I would lean toward the latter, but a public poll might be nice.

[Duke of York]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

there is zero evidence whatsoever of this.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

there is zero evidence whatsoever of this.

We saw this in Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana/Georgia/North Carolina 2022 and Louisiana 2023. The result in a single state doesn’t mean much, but when the same pattern occurs in multiple states and multiple candidates and shows up in 2024 polling something is probably up.

[wbrocks67]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

there is zero evidence whatsoever of this.

We saw this in Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana/Georgia/North Carolina 2022 and Louisiana 2023. The result in a single state doesn’t mean much, but when the same pattern occurs in multiple states and multiple candidates and shows up in 2024 polling something is probably up.

Black voters voted more strongly for Warnock than they did for Biden 2020. Also, black turnout in a midterm to a presidential election is not really comparable. Lastly, again, 2022 polling showed the same thing and it did not bear out in actual results.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

there is zero evidence whatsoever of this.

We saw this in Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana/Georgia/North Carolina 2022 and Louisiana 2023. The result in a single state doesn’t mean much, but when the same pattern occurs in multiple states and multiple candidates and shows up in 2024 polling something is probably up.

Black voters voted more strongly for Warnock than they did for Biden 2020. Also, black turnout in a midterm to a presidential election is not really comparable. Lastly, again, 2022 polling showed the same thing and it did not bear out in actual results.

It did though. The black belt shifted several points right across many different states as I showed earlier, including in Walker vs Warnock (where Baldwin and Washington flipped despite Warnock being a perfect fit). Sure, urban blacks in Philly didn’t move right, but that’s different from rural black voters. Oversell, Republicans did about 5% better with black voters in 2022 than 2020, and Landry specifically got 12% versus Trump’s 10% despite only being 3/4 of the Republican votes (so Republicans probably combined for 16%).

Warnock did gain in places like Clayton and DeKalb, but these are irrelevant in Mississippi.

[Duke of York]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

there is zero evidence whatsoever of this.

We saw this in Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana/Georgia/North Carolina 2022 and Louisiana 2023. The result in a single state doesn’t mean much, but when the same pattern occurs in multiple states and multiple candidates and shows up in 2024 polling something is probably up.

Black voters voted more strongly for Warnock than they did for Biden 2020. Also, black turnout in a midterm to a presidential election is not really comparable. Lastly, again, 2022 polling showed the same thing and it did not bear out in actual results.

It did though. The black belt shifted several points right across many different states as I showed earlier, including in Walker vs Warnock (where Baldwin and Washington flipped despite Warnock being a perfect fit). Sure, urban blacks in Philly didn’t move right, but that’s different from rural black voters. Oversell, Republicans did about 5% better with black voters in 2022 than 2020, and Landry specifically got 12% versus Trump’s 10% despite only being 3/4 of the Republican votes (so Republicans probably combined for 16%).

Warnock did gain in places like Clayton and DeKalb, but these are irrelevant in Mississippi.

Presidential elections are different from midterms

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

there is zero evidence whatsoever of this.

We saw this in Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana/Georgia/North Carolina 2022 and Louisiana 2023. The result in a single state doesn’t mean much, but when the same pattern occurs in multiple states and multiple candidates and shows up in 2024 polling something is probably up.

Black voters voted more strongly for Warnock than they did for Biden 2020. Also, black turnout in a midterm to a presidential election is not really comparable. Lastly, again, 2022 polling showed the same thing and it did not bear out in actual results.

It did though. The black belt shifted several points right across many different states as I showed earlier, including in Walker vs Warnock (where Baldwin and Washington flipped despite Warnock being a perfect fit). Sure, urban blacks in Philly didn’t move right, but that’s different from rural black voters. Oversell, Republicans did about 5% better with black voters in 2022 than 2020, and Landry specifically got 12% versus Trump’s 10% despite only being 3/4 of the Republican votes (so Republicans probably combined for 16%).

Warnock did gain in places like Clayton and DeKalb, but these are irrelevant in Mississippi.

Presidential elections are different from midterms

I agree. I think this because polling shows Trump up by 5 in both GA and NC and gaining with black voters.

[DaleCooper]

Much as I’d like to see Presley win for the sake of having a sane, conservative Democrat in the monolithically red south, I won’t believe it will happen until I see it.

To be fair, my understanding is that Mississippi is on its way towards becoming competitive. It may not be there yet but it will happen eventually.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can definitely see this map 26/24 D
T IN GOV Braun
P KY GOV BESHEAR
P MS GOV PRESLEY
T MO GOV Ashcroft
P MT GOV BUSSE
cc NH Gov Ayotte
P NC STEIN
cc VT Scott
S WA  GOV FERGUSON
T WV GOV Mooneu

[MT Treasurer]

To be fair, my understanding is that Mississippi is on its way towards becoming competitive. It may not be there yet but it will happen eventually.

I don’t think Reeves losing would be a sign of MS becoming competitive. The JBE/Pressley model (running a practising pro-life Christian who focuses exclusively on kitchen-table issues and contrasts himself with the out-of-touch incumbent and corrupt local administration) does not work at the national level.

It’s basically a Phil Scott/Charlie Baker-situation. The Deep South (except GA) is not getting any less Republican any time soon.

The KY and VA races have been far more nationalized.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

To be fair, my understanding is that Mississippi is on its way towards becoming competitive. It may not be there yet but it will happen eventually.

I don’t think Reeves losing would be a sign of MS becoming competitive. The JBE/Pressley model (running a practising pro-life Christian who focuses exclusively on kitchen-table issues and contrasts himself with the out-of-touch incumbent and corrupt local administration) does not work at the national level.

It’s basically a Phil Scott/Charlie Baker-situation. The Deep South (except GA) is not getting any less Republican any time soon.

The KY and VA races have been far more nationalized.

Hood lost by 5-6 points, in an environment that was bluer and also before the Deep South trended hard right post-Dobbs. This won’t be close in the end.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To be fair, my understanding is that Mississippi is on its way towards becoming competitive. It may not be there yet but it will happen eventually.

I don’t think Reeves losing would be a sign of MS becoming competitive. The JBE/Pressley model (running a practising pro-life Christian who focuses exclusively on kitchen-table issues and contrasts himself with the out-of-touch incumbent and corrupt local administration) does not work at the national level.

It’s basically a Phil Scott/Charlie Baker-situation. The Deep South (except GA) is not getting any less Republican any time soon.

The KY and VA races have been far more nationalized.

Hood lost by 5-6 points, in an environment that was bluer and also before the Deep South trended hard right post-Dobbs. This won’t be close in the end.

What is your prediction for the final margin?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

To be fair, my understanding is that Mississippi is on its way towards becoming competitive. It may not be there yet but it will happen eventually.

I don’t think Reeves losing would be a sign of MS becoming competitive. The JBE/Pressley model (running a practising pro-life Christian who focuses exclusively on kitchen-table issues and contrasts himself with the out-of-touch incumbent and corrupt local administration) does not work at the national level.

It’s basically a Phil Scott/Charlie Baker-situation. The Deep South (except GA) is not getting any less Republican any time soon.

The KY and VA races have been far more nationalized.

Hood lost by 5-6 points, in an environment that was bluer and also before the Deep South trended hard right post-Dobbs. This won’t be close in the end.

What is your prediction for the final margin?

15-20, same as Trump’s 2020 margin. It seems bold but plausible given Louisiana. Trump will probably win MS by 25-30 in 2024.

Beshear is still clearly favored though.

[wbrocks67]

To be fair, my understanding is that Mississippi is on its way towards becoming competitive. It may not be there yet but it will happen eventually.

I don’t think Reeves losing would be a sign of MS becoming competitive. The JBE/Pressley model (running a practising pro-life Christian who focuses exclusively on kitchen-table issues and contrasts himself with the out-of-touch incumbent and corrupt local administration) does not work at the national level.

It’s basically a Phil Scott/Charlie Baker-situation. The Deep South (except GA) is not getting any less Republican any time soon.

The KY and VA races have been far more nationalized.

Hood lost by 5-6 points, in an environment that was bluer and also before the Deep South trended hard right post-Dobbs. This won’t be close in the end.

What is your prediction for the final margin?

15-20, same as Trump’s 2020 margin. It seems bold but plausible given Louisiana. Trump will probably win MS by 25-30 in 2024.

Beshear is still clearly favored though.

There is quite literally no reason to compare it to LA other than its in the south. That's an incredibly lazy analysis that ignores pretty much every dyanmic of this race.

[Pollster]

The handwringing over Black voters here is a little misinformed - Shawn Wilson in Louisiana barely had a profile and spent very little with scant help from the DGA while Landry spent general election-levels of cash with real appeals to non-New Orleans Black voters. The Reeves/Presley spending and targeting dynamics are far more typical, though Presley is of course spending more than most MS Dems ever do.

[wbrocks67]

The handwringing over Black voters here is a little misinformed - Shawn Wilson in Louisiana barely had a profile and spent very little with scant help from the DGA while Landry spent general election-levels of cash with real appeals to non-New Orleans Black voters. The Reeves/Presley spending and targeting dynamics are far more typical, though Presley is of course spending more than most MS Dems ever do.

This. I mean, this was the literal disparity - Dems basically spent nothing:

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1712911917096841547

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Could Trump visit here last minute? He probably won’t help Cameron because Cameron will probably lose, but holding a rally with Reeves will give him a sure win under his belt.