Mississippi Megathread 2023

[warandwar]

https://twitter.com/rrhelections/status/1685725468928987136?s=46&t=ER5aNLhiF...

That's the image used by Fredy Perlman's printing coop from the 70s, which hasn't been around for 50 years..  What on earth...

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Welcome to Primary Night in Mississippi!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/08/us/elections/results-mississippi.html

Contested Races:

R Gov
R Lt. Gov
D Ag Commissioner
R Insurance Commissioner
R Northern Public Service Commissioner
R Southern Public Service Commissioner

Polls close at 8 ET. Races where no candidate receives a majority will proceed to a Runoff on August 29.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tate Reeves*incumbent
26   +66.7%66.7%
John Witcher
10   +25.6%25.6
David Hardigree
3   +7.7%7.7

Chris McDaniel
32   +80.0%80.0%
Delbert Hosemann*incumbent
8   +20.0%20.0
Tiffany Longino
0   +0.0%0.0

[7,052,770]

Doesn't look like McDaniel is running up the score enough in Desoto to have a shot

[Roll Roons]

Doesn't look like McDaniel is running up the score enough in Desoto to have a shot

Is that where he's from?

[Oryxslayer]

The random selection of early results from scattered counties across the state suggests a close race for Lt. Gov, and Reeves easily winning the Gov race albeit with noticeable drop-off that shouldn't normally be occurring when an incumbent faces nobodies.

[NewYorkExpress]

The random selection of early results from scattered counties across the state suggests a close race for Lt. Gov, and Reeve's easily winning the Gov race albeit with noticeable drop-off that shouldn't normally be occurring when an incumbent faces nobodies.

That could bode well for Presley's chances in November.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Projections:

R Gov
Tate Reeves*incumbent
17,147   +71.0%71.0%   
John Witcher
4,563   +18.9%18.9   
David Hardigree
2,425   +10.0%10.0   

R Insurance Commissioner
Rep.   
Chaney*incumbent 74%   
Young 26%   7%

[7,052,770]

Doesn't look like McDaniel is running up the score enough in Desoto to have a shot

Is that where he's from?

No, but it's Tea Party central, or whatever the 2023 equivalent of that would be.

McDaniel is (ironically?) from Jones County.

[Roll Roons]

Hosemann now hovering around 50.

[7,052,770]

Hosemann now barely over 50.

With most of Desoto in, but barely any of the tri-county area (Hinds, Madison, Rankin).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Jones county delivering big for McDaniel

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Projection:

Northern Rep.   
Brown 64%   
Newman 36%   25%

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I was counting up and (please correct me if I’m wrong) but only 20 state senators have any sort of competition, with the bulk of it being in the primary. So the majority of Mississippians will have no election for state senate this fall.

[Oryxslayer]

I was counting up and (please correct me if I’m wrong) but only 20 state senators have any sort of competition, with the bulk of it being in the primary. So the majority of Mississippians will have no election for state senate this fall.

The map is a fairly awful gerrymander. You know things are bad when there are more Section 2 claims in the state legislative lawsuit against the smaller State Senate than the larger State House.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looked like Hosemann was running away with it for a bit, but Jones county quickly dropping him back to earth. And not even half of Jones is in. Still could easily be a runoff.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I was counting up and (please correct me if I’m wrong) but only 20 state senators have any sort of competition, with the bulk of it being in the primary. So the majority of Mississippians will have no election for state senate this fall.

The map is a fairly awful gerrymander. You know things are bad when there are more Section 2 claims in the state legislative lawsuit against the smaller State Senate than the larger State House.

I’m not surprised, just making the point. South Carolina is the same way, even more so before 2020.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Projection:

Delbert Hosemann*incumbent
132,947   +52.5%52.5%   
Chris McDaniel
107,261   +42.3%42.3   
Tiffany Longino
13,176   +5.2%5.2   

[Roll Roons]

Hosemann holding steady as more vote comes in. Funny how McDaniel crushed it in the first county to report anything (Jasper) but that ended up being totally unrepresentative.

Also a great guy I know has won the Republican primary for a state House seat and will be uncontested in November!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Projections:

Ag Commissioner Dem.   
Bradford 52%   
Hill 26%   93%

Southern Rep.   
Carr 54%   
Maxwell*incumbent 46%   91%

That concludes the Mississippi primaries.

[Roll Roons]

AP calls it for Hosemann.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/senatormcdaniel/status/1689143489034940416

I've said it before and I'll say it again. It's literally only Trump and that disgusting creature in Arizona.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/1689986252513161216

MS should give JBE a friend.

[MT Treasurer]

This race has way more upset potential than many on here seem to think. I'm expecting a low-/mid-single-digit race at this point, and it is winnable for Pressley.

It's funny because I think Beshear is overrated in KY while Pressley is underrated in MS and a KY-R/MS-D split is not completely out of the question.

Pressley is much more palatable to Republican-leaning/culturally conservative voters than Beshear, and Cameron is less tainted than Reeves. Reeves is precisely the kind of politician people will throw out the moment they're actually given an alternative they can stomach.

[Skill and Chance]

This race has way more upset potential than many on here seem to think. I'm expecting a low-/mid-single-digit race at this point, and it is winnable for Pressley.

It's funny because I think Beshear is overrated in KY while Pressley is underrated in MS and a KY-R/MS-D split is not completely out of the question.

Pressley is much more palatable to Republican-leaning/culturally conservative voters than Beshear, and Cameron is less tainted than Reeves. Reeves is precisely the kind of politician people will throw out the moment they're actually given an alternative they can stomach.

I do get the sense that Beshear has been behaving too much like Generic D and may have gotten overconfident after the pro-life referendum failed.