Sadly, the 6-cycle arbiter of truth has been shattered:
Who knows: it may be "close" or even losable, but there's no way this poll is anywhere close to being accurate based on the three candidates' percentages.
Point and counterpoint: no OR DEM gubernatorial nominee has cleared 51% in the 21st century - but no nominee has fallen below 49%, either:
2002: 49.03
2006: 50.73
2010: 49.29
2014: 49.89
2016: 50.62
2018: 50.05
Avg: 49.94
And now the 21st century average drops (as of now, barring any meaningful number of remaining ballots) to 49.52% to boot.