OREGON 2022 ELECTION RESULTS
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NOVA Green
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« on: November 18, 2022, 10:23:29 PM »

Placeholder to begin discussion regarding the OR-2022  Election Results.

I recognize that there are also Statewide Races (eg OR-GOV and OR-HD and OR-SD districts, and Citizen Initiatives which perhaps might belong in the other thread).

Still, time to start now that we are seeing the overwhelming majority of ballots received and counted in Oregon, with even the largest County in Oregon (Multnomah County) having only received and counted (17) Total Ballots on 11/15/22.

There might be some counties straggling and floating around with yet ballots to be counted prior to their official SoS mandated reporting deadlines, so I don't want to be premature in running total numbers yet, but pretty sure we have some pretty decent baselines in certain races, even without having to delve into precinct numbers (Most Counties not currently reporting).

One main problem I have is that we still do not have updated voter turnout numbers by county in Oregon by Party registration, making it much more difficult to include this as a variable when it comes to TO differentials, not to mention the additional confusion caused by OR's AVR law when it comes to compare and contrast prior to the law being passed, where voters are automatically registered to vote every time they have a transaction with the Department of Motor Vehicles, unless they opt out.

Since NAV's are a huge % of the OR electorate, makes it much more difficult to track numbers w/o updated info from Salem, since many counties don't track this on their individual election websites.

Taking a sip of Canadian and a smoke, and then maybe post a few initial thoughts later tonight at a "high level", considering we don't really have the level of data necessary for more detailed analysis.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2022, 10:25:11 PM »

I don't have anything to contribute other than disappointment at the OR-GOV race, but I do love me a good NOVA thread Smiley
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2022, 10:28:59 PM »

Sadly, the 6-cycle arbiter of truth has been shattered:

Who knows: it may be "close" or even losable, but there's no way this poll is anywhere close to being accurate based on the three candidates' percentages.

Point and counterpoint: no OR DEM gubernatorial nominee has cleared 51% in the 21st century - but no nominee has fallen below 49%, either:

Quote
2002: 49.03
2006: 50.73
2010: 49.29
2014: 49.89
2016: 50.62
2018: 50.05

Avg: 49.94

And now the 21st century average drops (as of now, barring any meaningful number of remaining ballots) to 49.52% to boot. Cry
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2022, 05:47:54 PM »

As promised...

For all the complaints on this Forum regarding how VBM states take forever to count their ballots, I do take a bit of pride in Oregon (First State ever to go 100% VBM) to be able to count and report something like 98-99% of ballots a week and some change after the election.

There are still a handful of stray ballots out there, which might slightly impact the Total Vote (TV) numbers, Turnout % (TO), but most likely won't change the overall County Vote Share % / Total State Ballot Counted numbers.

I plan on following up in a subsequent post looking at a few compare & contrast data points using the '20 GE and '18 GE numbers for overall TV, TO, and Vote Share numbers.

I am also particularly interested in overall OR TO numbers by County within the context of shifting to an Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) system, especially within the context of a midterm election.

Enough explaining--- Let's roll the map...

Apologies it's a bit ugly, but thought it might be easier to try to pack the (3) key variables into one map.



A few brief initial comments:

1.) Shading is based upon total turnout numbers with the darker the blue the highest % of Total Voter Turnout and Pink representing the lowest County TO numbers.

2.) I do not have a comprehensive understanding of outstanding ballots, and this data is not available on the OR-SoS website, so lifted the estimated 97-99% of total ballots counted by county numbers from a WaPo article.

A few brief comments regarding the 2022 Map Posted:

1.) Metro PDX met or exceeded overall Statewide Turnout %

     A.) Multnomah County hit 64.4%, which is effectively the Statewide TO  average.
     B.) Washington County hit 65.4%, which exceeded the Statewide TO average.
     C.) Clackamas County hit 65.6%, which exceeded the Statewide TO average.

2.) Overall voter turnout in the two main College Counties (Benton & Lane) well exceeded overall State Turnout numbers.

     A.) Benton County hit 74.7% TO, the 2nd highest % in the State, next to overwhelmingly Senior and rural Wheeler County OR.

     B.) Lane County hit 66.9% TO, although the overall % of voters under the age of 35 is much lower, and plus without precinct numbers available yet, more difficult to interpret younger voter Turnout.

3.) Turnout in the Mid-Valley counties of Marion and Linn was clearly significantly lower than statewide averages.

     A.) This may or may not have played a significant role in the CD-05 and CD-06 elections, depending upon which precincts and which voters were lagging.

4.) Lower Turnout in the Southern Oregon strongholds of Douglas and Josephine Counties stands out a bit, and if we consider Klamath County part of Southern Oregon (Personally am of mixed opinion there), looks even worse for TO numbers in overwhelmingly PUB Counties.

5.) Central Oregon

    A.) Deschutes County naturally stands out with a TO level of 68.5%, plus additionally holds a 5.6% of total Oregon Vote Share.

    B.) Jefferson County--- not totally sure what's going on there, but pretty sure COVID hit Native Lands hard, so possibly decreased voter turnout from Warm Springs and the Rez?

6.) Eastern Oregon

    A.) Voter Turnout % are generally going to more closely align to age and ethnicity.

         AVR and VBM means that there are quite a few Latino Oregonians who have lived and work in places such as Malheur and Umatilla County to get their driving permits, but are not especially engaged in the political process, and many of whom are frequently more migras, who move from farm / ranch / food processing facilities, and are not as concerned about elections as they are about working the next job down the road as seasonal workers.


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2022, 02:57:49 AM »

Next stop...

Time to take a look at total raw votes by county in Oregon from 2018-2022.

Colors are shaded and numbers based upon total change of votes between '18 and '22.



1.) Multnomah County stands out with 20k less TVs between the '18 and '22 GE.

2.) Other counties which initially appear to have experienced lower total votes between '18 and '22 included heavily DEM counties such as Washington, Benton, and Hood River.

3.) Overall Total vote numbers increased significantly in heavily Republican Douglas County in Southern Oregon.

4.) Similar patterns were observed in Republican leaning counties in the Upper Willamette Valley (Polk, Yamhill, and Marion).

5.) Democratic stronghold of Lane County appears to have held their own compared to '18, but obviously 2:1 increase in TV from Douglas vs Lane again demonstrates a more significant PUB and PUB leaning TO in the heart of CD-04.

6.) Deschutes County totally stands out, but considering POP growth numbers and educational attainment levels, perhaps not surprising.

7.) Linn County obviously stands out for a significant midterm underperformance.

Considering what we have seen not totally implausible of lower propensity voters sitting out the midterms.

8.) Significant decrease between '18 and '22 in Malheur and Umatilla, quite plausibly explained by decreased Latino Turnout, which might also be a factor in Wasco and Hood River counties.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2022, 03:19:57 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2022, 10:27:39 PM by khuzifenq »

Next stop...

Time to take a look at total raw votes by county in Oregon from 2018-2022.

Colors are shaded and numbers based upon total change of votes between '18 and '22.



1.) Multnomah County stands out with 20k less TVs between the '18 and '22 GE.

2.) Other counties which initially appear to have experienced lower total votes between '18 and '22 included heavily DEM counties such as Washington, Benton, and Hood River.

I noticed Bonamici won the Washington County portion of OR-1 by ~5% less than Biden did in 2020 per the NYT. This makes sense given your observations on Republicans having a turnout edge in the Tri-County area. I also remember only seeing Drazan and Perkins signs in residential areas in OR-1 Washington County (in an area where Biden won 70-ish % of the vote), but never saw any Kotek or Wyden signs in residential or commercial areas anywhere in the metro area.

edit: looking more closely at the Congressional map on DRA, it's really obvious why OR-5 went R. Most of Happy Valley is in OR-3, while all of Woodburn and Salem are in OR-6. The only parts of Portland proper in OR-5 are 1) the area west of the Willamette River and east of I-5, and 2) a stretch of precincts west of I-205 hugging the county line that are all south of Reed College. The only part of Clackamas County in OR-6 is the exurb of Wilsonville- not at all surprised that place swung R by double digits in a Biden midterm.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2022, 06:38:16 PM »

Sadly, the 6-cycle arbiter of truth has been shattered:

Who knows: it may be "close" or even losable, but there's no way this poll is anywhere close to being accurate based on the three candidates' percentages.

Point and counterpoint: no OR DEM gubernatorial nominee has cleared 51% in the 21st century - but no nominee has fallen below 49%, either:

Quote
2002: 49.03
2006: 50.73
2010: 49.29
2014: 49.89
2016: 50.62
2018: 50.05

Avg: 49.94

And now the 21st century average drops (as of now, barring any meaningful number of remaining ballots) to 49.52% to boot. Cry

Current numbers are 47.01% DEM-GOV.

I believe when you posted this it was the highwater mark when Multnomah County had dumped most of their ballots, but there were still many uncounted ballots from PUB-GOV '22 counties not yet reported.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2022, 07:16:35 PM »

Next stop...

Time to take a look at total raw votes by county in Oregon from 2018-2022.

Colors are shaded and numbers based upon total change of votes between '18 and '22.



1.) Multnomah County stands out with 20k less TVs between the '18 and '22 GE.

2.) Other counties which initially appear to have experienced lower total votes between '18 and '22 included heavily DEM counties such as Washington, Benton, and Hood River.

I noticed Bonamici won the Washington County portion of OR-1 by ~5% less than Biden did in 2020 per the NYT. This makes sense given your observations on Republicans having a turnout edge in the Tri-County area. I also remember only seeing Drazan and Perkins signs in residential areas in OR-1 Washington County (in an area where Biden won 70-ish % of the vote), but never saw any Kotek or Wyden signs in residential or commercial areas anywhere in the metro area.

edit: looking more closely at the Congressional map on DRA, it's really obvious why OR-5 went R. Most of Happy Valley is in OR-3, while all of Woodburn and Salem are in OR-6. The only parts of Portland proper in OR-5 are 1) the area west of the Willamette River and east of I-5, and 2) a stretch of precincts west of I-205 hugging the county line that are all south of Reed College. The only part of Clackamas County in OR-6 is the exurb of Wilsonville- not at all surprised that place swung R by double digits in a Biden midterm.

Good observations... I am very very interested, in looking at precinct numbers from Washington and Clackamas County within the context of the CD-05 and CD-06 swings, especially within suburban and exurban parts of PDX Metro.

Initial numbers appear that within CD-05 parts of Linn and Marion, rural areas swung heavily PUB, so my assumption would be that within rural Clackamas County there was a similar phenomenon.

Still, your observations regarding Wilsonville definitely give pause, since there are quite a few places within the Clackamas County suburban/exurban CD-05, which might perhaps more closely resemble Wilsonville rather than places such as Milwaukie.



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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2022, 09:21:42 PM »

Something interesting about Clackamas: https://www.wweek.com/news/2022/11/24/clackamas-county-republicans-move-right/
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: November 28, 2022, 10:25:06 PM »

So while we are still awaiting final official election results from Oregon, including the "Gold Standard" of precinct results, not to mention turnout numbers by party registration, I thought it might be interesting to look at the total registration numbers by political party between 2018 and 2022 by County.

Here is a map which I created of voter registration raw vote numbers coded with Atlas colors (RED=DEM, BLUE=PUB, ORANGE= Everyone Else).

To properly see the map (Unless you are looking at it on a large monitor or flat-screen) you will likely need to either open in a separate browser window or pull it up from my Atlas picture archives.



Coming up, now we have to look at the Oregon map when it comes to overall RV changes by Party between '18-'20-'22.

Thinking maybe just starting with the '18-'22 changes in Party RV by County and skipping the '18-'20 and the '20-'22 RV registration metrics?







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« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2022, 01:25:05 AM »

So while we are still awaiting final official election results from Oregon, including the "Gold Standard" of precinct results, not to mention turnout numbers by party registration, I thought it might be interesting to look at the total registration numbers by political party between 2018 and 2022 by County.

Here is a map which I created of voter registration raw vote numbers coded with Atlas colors (RED=DEM, BLUE=PUB, ORANGE= Everyone Else).

To properly see the map (Unless you are looking at it on a large monitor or flat-screen) you will likely need to either open in a separate browser window or pull it up from my Atlas picture archives.



Coming up, now we have to look at the Oregon map when it comes to overall RV changes by Party between '18-'20-'22.

Thinking maybe just starting with the '18-'22 changes in Party RV by County and skipping the '18-'20 and the '20-'22 RV registration metrics?

Those R registration trends in Washington and Multnomah Counties sure are something. Would not have expected the 2022 R numbers to be lower than both 2018 and 2020.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2022, 08:32:49 PM »


Those R registration trends in Washington and Multnomah Counties sure are something. Would not have expected the 2022 R numbers to be lower than both 2018 and 2020.

Household income map for most of Metro Portland- the Washington County suburb precincts generally match the "quality" of housing stock; Hillsboro is more uniformly upscale-ish than I would've expected but it explains Hillsboro being somewhat less D than Beaverton. Haven't seen much of Tualatin (OR-6) or most of the Clackamas County suburbs (OR-5), but this map is consistent with what I have seen of housing stock there from the freeways.

No idea if inner Vancouver proper (WA-3) is demographically/socioeconomically better or worse for Dems/GOP than my priors or 2022 House results would've suggested.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2022, 09:32:50 PM »

So while we are still awaiting final official election results from Oregon, including the "Gold Standard" of precinct results, not to mention turnout numbers by party registration, I thought it might be interesting to look at the total registration numbers by political party between 2018 and 2022 by County.

Here is a map which I created of voter registration raw vote numbers coded with Atlas colors (RED=DEM, BLUE=PUB, ORANGE= Everyone Else).

To properly see the map (Unless you are looking at it on a large monitor or flat-screen) you will likely need to either open in a separate browser window or pull it up from my Atlas picture archives.



Coming up, now we have to look at the Oregon map when it comes to overall RV changes by Party between '18-'20-'22.

Thinking maybe just starting with the '18-'22 changes in Party RV by County and skipping the '18-'20 and the '20-'22 RV registration metrics?

Those R registration trends in Washington and Multnomah Counties sure are something. Would not have expected the 2022 R numbers to be lower than both 2018 and 2020.

So on that note, I thought it would be interesting to create a few maps showing the changes in RV by Party between '18 and '22 GE.

*** Again those not using a large computer monitor will likely want to load in a new tab or check out the original maps that I have uploaded to my Atlas gallery ***



If we look at the total NET changes (DEM RV changes from '18 to '22 MINUS the PUB RV changes from '18-'22), the results stand out even more starkly.



Several initial observations:

1.) Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) through the Oregon Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) clearly continues to help drive the large number of registered voters not affiliated with either of the two main political parties.

2.) Republicans have made net RV gains in ALL counties in Oregon between '18 and '22 with several exceptions:
 
     A.) Multnomah County--- This is significant since although there was a total increase of 35.7k RVs, PUB's actually somehow succeeded in losing 3.0k voters in a county which represents roughly 20% of the entire vote share in Oregon.

     B.) Washington County--- Again significant, since for PUBs to win statewide elections, it is difficult to see a path forward without significant improvement in the PDX "Burbs" and Exurbs. In fact, similar to Multnomah County, there was a total net increase of 32.8k voters but again somehow PUBs managed to [u]lose[/u] 6.9k voters, roughly 10% of their RV numbers from 2018!


     C.) Benton County-- Perhaps not totally surprising, considering that there is a large college student population, combined with many educated professionals in Corvallis. Still it should be noted that *both* DEM and PUBs saw a decrease in RV's between '20 and '22, most likely associated with the transitory nature of the student population, and possibly also impacted by the University shutdown for much of the COVID era. I still question the decision to include Corvallis in CD-04 after redistricting, especially in light of the CD-05 results in '22.

     D.) Three small counties in the "Grain Belt" with very low populations (Sherman, Gilliam, and Wheeler). Since I went in increments of 100 votes, basically anything over 50 was rounded to 0.1k and anything under 50 votes was rounded down to 0.0k.

          Hood River was also a net 0.0k gain for PUBs.

3.) Democratic RV numbers continued to take significant hits in most parts of Southern and Eastern Oregon, with net decreases in DEM RV numbers in practically every county, with the exception of a few small population counties where there was no net change, such as heavily retiree Southern Coastal OR, Curry county.

      Generally in most of these counties DEM losses in RV numbers were replaced by PUB gains, in some larger population counties by significant PUB RV gains.

       A.) Klamath County has long been a PUB stronghold, and although it is locked into the PUB safe CD-02, is still a heavy PUB vote-bank for Statewide elections.

       B.) Jackson County saw the DEM's lose a raw 1.3k voters between '18 and '22 and PUBs gain a raw 1.5k RV's during that same period.

            Not totally sure for the reason for this change, since I have commented previously on other threads related to OR elections about how Medford, although it is still the largest population city in OR to have voted for Trump, we saw some interesting swings, especially in the wealthier and more educated precincts in East Medford, towards DEMs in recent elections.

           Part of it might be a result of COVID and the student population of Southern Oregon University in Ashland voting elsewhere?

           There was also the impact of the forest fires which burnt down some heavily DEM parts of the smaller towns of Talent and Phoenix which might have played a factor as well.

       C.) Coos County continues it's lurch to the Right, as Ancestral Dem's continue to pass away or shift party affiliation, most likely as a result of the perception of DEM brand increasingly shifting to "culture war" style politics, as well as disagreement with state DEM policies on Guns and Environmental issues.

      D.) Josephine County, although it has long been an OR PUB stronghold (Look at '64 GE-PRES numbers for example), had stagnant PUB RV numbers between '20 and '22, is still benefitting from the "Trump Bump" between '18 and '20 GE, combined with a +9.7k increase of RV's not identifying with either of the two main political parties.

      E.) Douglas County has long been the PUB "Breadbasket" of Southern OR, and a key county in terms of vote share in CD-04, and exhibited the largest NET change of RV DEMs and PUBs between '18 and '22 by county in Oregon. This is also a ground zero of #TimberUnity, and again guns and environmental issues still continue to push voters to the Right.

     F.) Lane County is another interesting case of net PUB RV gains and DEM RV losses between '18 and '22. The DEM stronghold in Southern Oregon actually managed to lose some 0.2k voters, while the PUB's nabbed an additional 1.0k voters and 3rd Party Voters / NAVs grabbed a whopping +12.5k voters.

         Still Lane County has a much smaller % of College Voters than Benton county as the total county population. It should be noted that Lane has a fairly significant rural population outside of even metro Eugene-Springfield as % of County vote share, so difficult to gauge shifts in RV numbers.

4.) Mid-Valley--- Suspect we might start to see some of the shifts that impacted elections in CD-05 and CD-06?

       A.) Linn County, which overall is a heavily PUB County with significant rural parts now has a huge % of CD-05 vote share, despite the Linn County portions of Albany being toss-up zones, not to mention the precinct representing "West Corvallis" (but outside of City limits).

           Total collapse of DEM RV between '18 and '22, combined with a major increase of PUB RV, quite likely made the difference in the '22 GE CD-05 election.

      B.) Marion County, vast majority of which is located in CD-05 around the Salem-Keizer Metro Area, with some much more heavily PUB rurals in the Southern and Eastern portions of the county, saw net gains for both PUBs and DEMs between '18 and '22, with an even more significant +15.3k RV gain for voters that are NAVs / 3rd Party.

            I am especially interested in looking at Turnout (TO) numbers from here by party registration within the context of the new district in CD-06, as well as precinct results since naturally the Latino population of the city of Salem is a place where swings and TO results might have made the district closer than it should have been.

5.) Central Oregon--- Deschutes County and Crook County stand out,

      Tale of two counties... both with major increases in population and RV numbers.

      DEM gains are significant in Deschutes county (Majority of pop centers around Bend OR) and although there is an off-set in State numbers with Crook County (CD-02), fact is that the voters in CD-05 portion of the county will most likely continue to move DEM, especially if Trump style PUBs are running for office.

6.) Oregon Coast--- Overall DEMs didn't lose that many RVs compared to PUBs between '18 and '22.

There were some minor changes even heavily DEM strongholds of Clatsop and Lincoln Counties.

Could quite possibly be a bit of an "offset" as younger DEM leaning voters might have gone NAV with no really competitive primary election in either of these places.

7.) Clackamas County---

This is naturally ground zero of any Republican statewide candidates attempt to win a statewide election, with a mixture of upper-income inner- Metro PDX suburban areas that have been swinging hard DEM for some time in NW ClackCo, combined with significantly large fast growing suburbs and exurban type places around Happy Valley and Sunnyvale, and then toss in some more traditionally conservative towns in places like Canby and Sandy, and then add a ton of more pure rural precincts in SE ClackCo to the mix.

Still extremely curious about detailed precinct level results from the '22 GE, especially to run against '20 and '18 GE results, in order to check the numbers when it comes to swings within the context of the OR-CD-05 GE numbers.

8.) In short it is still amazing that DEMs can continue to win statewide elections, effectively on the backs of two counties (Multnomah and Washington), while continuing to lose ground in most other counties within Oregon.'

Thoughts Atlas Nation???







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« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2022, 03:47:10 AM »

Well, Multnomah and Washington are big (by Oregonian standards, probably very big), so - Democrats have some cushion even when running very liberal candidates. But, IF Republicans will somehow nominate candidates closer to the past (Hatfield-Packwood type, but - without scandals) - they will have serious chances. Democrats are lucky, that in the last years they (Republicans) prefer either "sane conservatives" (which is, frequently, not enough) or openly MAGA-types...
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« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2022, 02:25:57 PM »


4.) Mid-Valley--- Suspect we might start to see some of the shifts that impacted elections in CD-05 and CD-06?

       A.) Linn County, which overall is a heavily PUB County with significant rural parts now has a huge % of CD-05 vote share, despite the Linn County portions of Albany being toss-up zones, not to mention the precinct representing "West Corvallis" (but outside of City limits).

           Total collapse of DEM RV between '18 and '22, combined with a major increase of PUB RV, quite likely made the difference in the '22 GE CD-05 election.

      B.) Marion County, vast majority of which is located in CD-05 around the Salem-Keizer Metro Area, with some much more heavily PUB rurals in the Southern and Eastern portions of the county, saw net gains for both PUBs and DEMs between '18 and '22, with an even more significant +15.3k RV gain for voters that are NAVs / 3rd Party.

            I am especially interested in looking at Turnout (TO) numbers from here by party registration within the context of the new district in CD-06, as well as precinct results since naturally the Latino population of the city of Salem is a place where swings and TO results might have made the district closer than it should have been.

7.) Clackamas County---

This is naturally ground zero of any Republican statewide candidates attempt to win a statewide election, with a mixture of upper-income inner- Metro PDX suburban areas that have been swinging hard DEM for some time in NW ClackCo, combined with significantly large fast growing suburbs and exurban type places around Happy Valley and Sunnyvale, and then toss in some more traditionally conservative towns in places like Canby and Sandy, and then add a ton of more pure rural precincts in SE ClackCo to the mix.

Still extremely curious about detailed precinct level results from the '22 GE, especially to run against '20 and '18 GE results, in order to check the numbers when it comes to swings within the context of the OR-CD-05 GE numbers.

8.) In short it is still amazing that DEMs can continue to win statewide elections, effectively on the backs of two counties (Multnomah and Washington), while continuing to lose ground in most other counties within Oregon.'

Thoughts Atlas Nation???

For all the talk of double-digit exurban white moderate Boomer R swings in Clackamas County, it seems the Salem area may have been more decisive in both OR-5 and OR-6 being more R than expected given what happened in politically similar states. Although a Mid-Valley R swing in the midterm was to be expected for people familiar with OR.

Quote from: AAD
Quote from: khuzifenq
Quote from: AAD
Very rough congressional vote by county map with no shading because I'm lazy. 


IIRC both the OR-5 and OR-6 portions of Clackamas County went narrowly D which means the OR-3 portion (Happy Valley + various exurbs that are definitely R) must've been quite R for Clackamas County as a whole to be R.
Clackamas county was very close to the point I initially thought Democrats carried it until I pulled the calculator out and confirmed it. It was really the R swing in the Salem metro that cost Dems OR05, and made OR06 very close.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2022, 01:01:14 AM »


4.) Mid-Valley--- Suspect we might start to see some of the shifts that impacted elections in CD-05 and CD-06?

       A.) Linn County, which overall is a heavily PUB County with significant rural parts now has a huge % of CD-05 vote share, despite the Linn County portions of Albany being toss-up zones, not to mention the precinct representing "West Corvallis" (but outside of City limits).

           Total collapse of DEM RV between '18 and '22, combined with a major increase of PUB RV, quite likely made the difference in the '22 GE CD-05 election.

      B.) Marion County, vast majority of which is located in CD-05 around the Salem-Keizer Metro Area, with some much more heavily PUB rurals in the Southern and Eastern portions of the county, saw net gains for both PUBs and DEMs between '18 and '22, with an even more significant +15.3k RV gain for voters that are NAVs / 3rd Party.

            I am especially interested in looking at Turnout (TO) numbers from here by party registration within the context of the new district in CD-06, as well as precinct results since naturally the Latino population of the city of Salem is a place where swings and TO results might have made the district closer than it should have been.

7.) Clackamas County---

This is naturally ground zero of any Republican statewide candidates attempt to win a statewide election, with a mixture of upper-income inner- Metro PDX suburban areas that have been swinging hard DEM for some time in NW ClackCo, combined with significantly large fast growing suburbs and exurban type places around Happy Valley and Sunnyvale, and then toss in some more traditionally conservative towns in places like Canby and Sandy, and then add a ton of more pure rural precincts in SE ClackCo to the mix.

Still extremely curious about detailed precinct level results from the '22 GE, especially to run against '20 and '18 GE results, in order to check the numbers when it comes to swings within the context of the OR-CD-05 GE numbers.

8.) In short it is still amazing that DEMs can continue to win statewide elections, effectively on the backs of two counties (Multnomah and Washington), while continuing to lose ground in most other counties within Oregon.'

Thoughts Atlas Nation???

For all the talk of double-digit exurban white moderate Boomer R swings in Clackamas County, it seems the Salem area may have been more decisive in both OR-5 and OR-6 being more R than expected given what happened in politically similar states. Although a Mid-Valley R swing in the midterm was to be expected for people familiar with OR.

Quote from: AAD
Quote from: khuzifenq
Quote from: AAD
Very rough congressional vote by county map with no shading because I'm lazy. 


IIRC both the OR-5 and OR-6 portions of Clackamas County went narrowly D which means the OR-3 portion (Happy Valley + various exurbs that are definitely R) must've been quite R for Clackamas County as a whole to be R.
Clackamas county was very close to the point I initially thought Democrats carried it until I pulled the calculator out and confirmed it. It was really the R swing in the Salem metro that cost Dems OR05, and made OR06 very close.


So, interestingly enough have just started to take a look into a handful of Oregon Counties which appear to pretty much ready to post their final numbers before the official OR-Canvass numbers to deliver to the SoS by the mandatory deadline of 12/5/22.

Unfortunately these numbers are not currently from Statewide numbers, but rather from local County Election sources, so naturally we have massive gaps in terms of TO by RV and Party Affiliation.

My friend, you bust my bubble on this one, since have been working through a few precinct results from early reporting counties downstate. Wink

In OR-CD-06 it does appear that there was a significantly lower voter TO among RV DEMs versus RV PUBs in Yamhill County, and quite possibly in Polk County as well, running the compare and contrast numbers from '16-'22.

I was planning on doing this huge map of Yamhill by precinct, with some embedded spreadsheets, but my laptop just recently crashed. Sad

Unfortunately trying to use my work PC with my Adobe Pro to convert to Excel ran into a few issues, so might take a bit longer than had hoped to convert some of the PDF files to Excel to do a Compare and Contrast (C&C) with historical election data...

Still, regardless of "sexy" Excel graphs and charts...

Turnout Numbers by Party: (Ignoring the accepted vs cast numbers---)

2022: (D)- Accepted (76.9%).   Cast (77.6%)
2022: (R)- Accepted (82.9%).   Cast (83.5%)

2020: (D)- Accepted (89.6%).   Cast (90.3%)
2020: (R)- Accepted (91.1%).   Cast (91.6%)

2018: (D)- Accepted (79.7%).   Cast (80.3%)
2018: (R)- Accepted (81.1%).   Cast (81.6%)

2016: (D)- Accepted (86.4%).   Cast (87.3%)
2016: (R)- Accepted (89.0%).   Cast (89.7%)

So... anyways you look at is that DEM TO collapsed dramatically between '18 and '22 in Yamhill County, while PUB TO increased.

Even if we ignore the "votes cast" versus "votes accepted" (Gap most likely DEM leaning voters who neglected to sign the back of their mail in ballots and not follow up with election authorities after the election), it is patently clear that this explains quite a bit of the Yamhill County swings between '18 and '22.

It is also notable, that many younger voters basically were automatically registered to vote via AVR through DMV, and although I have not yet included those TO numbers this but one example as to why it appears there was a significant DEM underperformance in CD-06.

Still planning on running some precinct numbers from '08-'22.

*** NOTE have observed similar phenomenon in certain precincts in Polk and Benton County, but haven't had a chance to run top level numbers yet ***
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: December 08, 2022, 02:35:46 AM »
« Edited: December 09, 2022, 08:37:23 PM by NOVA Green »

Now the OR SoS reporting deadline just hit on 12/5/17, we are starting to see precinct results pop up for many counties all at the same time.

Unfortunately, we are still lacking data when it comes to TO by Party RV.

Haven't really had a chance to check it out much yet. but looks like in addition to places such as Multnomah, Yamhill, Polk, and Benton, we got tons of new updates from various counties on their official websites in terms of precinct level data.

As of 12/7/22 updated precinct level results from county websites (Not mentioned above) include the following additions:

Baker
Clatasop
Coos
Deschutes
Douglas
Hood River
Jackson
Jefferson
Josephine
Linn
Marion
Union
Wasco
Washington

Def looking forward to taking a closer look at all of these numbers as a Compare & Contrast over recent elections.

It still appears we are missing certain counties (most significantly Clackamas County), not to mention Lane County precincts, as well as certain places in the NW "Coastal Areas" such as Columbia and Tillamook.

Sure, more than willing to take a Curry once it up, and would be very interesting to look at a Klamath or a Umatilla, but still waiting on a ton of places for precinct results in OR...

Can't be greedy and tons to digest as it is, while I am still eating late Thanksgiving Turkey leftovers...




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« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2022, 04:12:24 PM »

I don't have anything to contribute other than disappointment at the OR-GOV race, but I do love me a good NOVA thread Smiley

I will add my sole disappointment that Nova apparently likes Canadian whiskey. Ick!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2022, 02:37:59 AM »

I don't have anything to contribute other than disappointment at the OR-GOV race, but I do love me a good NOVA thread Smiley

I will add my sole disappointment that Nova apparently likes Canadian whiskey. Ick!

Actually my Canadian Whisky of choice is Forty Creek, which I believe has done quite well on the awards circuit.

https://fortycreekwhisky.com/

https://www.connosr.com/forty-creek-barrel-select-whisky-reviews-2397

https://thewhiskeyjug.com/canadian-whiskey/forty-creek-barrel-select-review/

https://malt-review.com/2022/05/31/forty-creek-and-collingwood/

If anybody on Atlas feels like sending me a random bottle, I will happily take it, just like some random stranger on the internet on a non-political site sent me a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue Label back in the early-mid '10s when I was living in Tejas.   Wink

I digress...

While we are awaiting final Oregon precinct level results, thought it might be interesting to take a look at US-SEN numbers over the past (3) GE's.

Without even running the TV numbers, the percentage numbers alone appear to indicate a significant collapse of Wyden's numbers in downstate OR between '16 and '22.

As I had previously posited on a previous thread from '20, it appears that the alignment between US-PRES numbers was starting to hit DEMs in other elections, including US-SEN as well as within OR-CD-04.

US-SEN numbers from '22 appear to accentuate and underline the point I made a brief two years ago.

Although, I have limited data points yet to support my argument, am still persuaded that DEM underperformance in the OR-GOV election, as well as within CD-05 and CD-06, was quite possibly a result of significantly lower DEM turnout than PUB TO, especially within DEM strongholds.



So here is the % votes for US-SEN by County '16-'22.

A few brief comments:

1.) Roughly 6% of Oregonians voted for Leftist 3rd Party Candidates (Working Families Party, and Green Party). Full confession, I was one of those bcs of his support for outsourcing OR factory jobs overseas. Now all is forgiven, but def hit Wyden a bit in '16.

(Believe I voted for Stine in the OR-SEN-'16-DEM-PRIM)

2.) Mark Callahan had an interesting backstory as a PUB in '16, which likely might have cost him some support among PUB base voters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Callahan

3.) Once again the map shows how a DEM can win OR Statewide elections, despite a significantly poorer performance in most parts of "Downstate OR" compared to Wyden's '16 numbers.

    A.) Wyden was able to maintain close to his statewide % numbers between '16 and '22 largely on the backs of improved performance in Metro PDX Multnomah and Washington Counties, where likely population growth was more than able to make up for decreasing % margins downstate.

    B.) Overall Wyden was able to maintain Merkley level % of TVs in most counties of OR, including not only in the heavily DEM "Breadbaskets" of the Southern Willamette Valley with large college student populations (Benton & Lane), but also in heavily Southern Oregon Republican Counties with large PUB margins such as Klamath, Josephine, and Douglas.

   C.) Fast growing (POP wise) Deschutes County shows how difficult it will be for PUBs to win statewide US-SEN races in OR (Let alone US-PRES or OR-GOV elections).

4.) Relative collapse of DEM US-SEN support within much of the Mid-Valley is a def a cause of concern for DEMs, especially now that we have CD's changed following redistricting.

     A.) In particular looking at overall DEM performance in Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties in '22 raise serious questions for DEMs running in CD-05 and CD-06.

     B.) Personally, I suspect that some of these swings and numbers were caused by lower voter turnout among "low-propensity" voters, namely a combination of younger voters overall, Latino voters of various ages, as well a College Student voters.

         Still awaiting further precinct results, so just a hunch thus far...

5.) Clackamas County is still a bit of a wildcard, since unlike Washington County, it includes a much higher % of vote share that is Rural, Small-Town, or Exurban,

     Regardless it appears that Wyden likely significantly out-performed McLeod-Skinner in most precincts within the district, but still don't have ClackCo precinct data points to confirm.

6.) Jackson County stands out a bit in terms of a significant US-SEN-DEM slip.

      Without having fully delved into precinct numbers, looks likely that there was significant lower voting coming out of the college town of Ashland (Once of the most DEM cities in OR).

So, still planning on perhaps taking a particular county, such as Yamhill County for one of first stopping points, since I have full sets of precinct numbers, plus I suspect it might tell a bit of a story when it comes to a mixture of both lower DEM TO %, significant swings in Exurban PDX, not to mention the influence of rurals, at a time where guns were on the ballot, combined with a relatively unpopular DEM-GOV where Kotek was seen by many (unfairly) as a clone.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #19 on: December 18, 2022, 12:26:03 AM »

Now time to perhaps take a bit of a peak into the window of OR-'22 Election Results, starting with one case study, in this case Yamhill County.

Here is a graph of '16 to '22 RV by Party affiliation, using raw vote metrics for those eligible to vote in the various GE elections in Oregon:

AVM had been around for awhile, but then AVR hits...



Both PUBS and DEMS gained narrowly around the RV margins, but NAV's went from 22k > 32k between '16 and '22.

Now here is a chart of Turnout (TO) by Party affiliation within Yamhill County '16-'22:



So pretty clear that overall in Yamhill County, PUB RV TO tends to beat RV DEM TO in the past four election cycles.

Look at it another way would be Raw Vote Turnout by Party registration between '16 and '22.



More to come shortly, but it is patently clear that at minimum significant decrease of RV DEM TO versus RV PUB TO, likely played a significant result in the DEM underperformance in Yamhill County in the '22 GE.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2022, 01:13:38 AM »

So now that OR-SoS has finally released official election results including turnout (TO) by party by county, decided to take a slight break and create a small map...

So basically this map is basic county map of % Turnout by Party GE Turnout between '18 and '22 by County, using Atlas Colors (RED=DEM, BLUE-PUB) plus BLACK=Total TO of RVs).

An "*" means that one or either party narrowly won the TO Vote.



A few brief notes:

1.) As I had previously postulated, it appears that in pretty much every county in Oregon, Republican voter Turnout exceeded Democratic Turnout in almost every county in Oregon in '22.

Multnomah and Benton Counties are the only exceptions from my old man eyes.

2.) This pattern is very different from the elections of '18 and '20, where DEMS were able to hold their in TO, even in DEM counties such as Clatsop, Washington, Clackamas, Lincoln, Lane, and Hood River.

3.) Additionally DEMs were able to perform extremely well vs PUBs in voter Turnout numbers in certain fast growing counties such as Deschutes and Jackson in both '18 and '22, and in both of these counties DEM TO% dropped between '18 and '22 and PUB TO % increased.

4.) Many of these major raw Turnout Differentials between '18 and '22 occurred in the new Congressional redistricted areas of CD-05 plus the new CD-06.

The partisan TO gaps in Clackamas and Linn County alone likely account for all of the gap within CD-05, without even delving into the "swing voters".

5.) Much of the new CD-06 was anchored around Marion County, and included heavily Democratic Salem, combined with some "swingy" SW Washington County 'Burbs, but also included some Democratic Cities in Yamhill and Polk County, which in theory should have been able to withstand a "wave election".

6.) Overall Oregon had the highest % of eligible voter Turnout in the nation (Or at least tied with one other state), mainly because of our AVR and VBM system.

As a result of this system, many automatically register to vote with transactions with the DMV, but not all vote.

What I *suspect* happened in addition to PUBs turning out at significantly higher % than DEMs in most of Oregon, is that those not registered DEM nor PUB, tended to produce higher number of PUB RAW votes in most counties of Oregon, with the exception of places with either a high % of College voters, young voters, and suburban PDX voters.

I will get back to Yamhill County shortly, but despite the fact that DEM TO held up in many parts of the US during the '22 GE, it appears that Oregon DEMs and DEM leaners were sleeping on the job, even if there were some swing voters who bought the whole "Oregon is getting destroyed by Democrats narrative".



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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2022, 01:38:13 AM »

So Dems lost the turnout battle in every county of the new Oregon-5.
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« Reply #22 on: December 22, 2022, 03:35:18 PM »

So Dems lost the turnout battle in every county of the new Oregon-5.

Except Multnomah County, of which there is a small sliver within the new CD-05.

Although technically DEMs had 50% turnout in the sliver of Jefferson County in CD-05 and there were no RV PUBs within that precinct.

Here's a screengrab of the Turnout by Party by County for CD-04 and CD-05 in '22:



And while I'm at it, here is the image for CD-06:



Granted this does not break down Turnout by precinct, which is not available for all counties, so in counties which saw Congressional redistricting it will be trickier to compare turnout between '18 and '22 for a true "apples to apples" type compare and contrast.

Regardless it still looks like the massive Turnout Gap in CD-05 in Linn and Marion single-handedly accounts for the PUB margin of victory, regardless of McLeod-Skinner's underwhelming performance in Clackamas and Deschutes.

For what I thought was a closer than I had expected election in the new CD-06, all eyes are on Marion County in particular.

I have some suspicions about *where* within Marion much of the DEM drop-off occurred in CD-06, which after all includes the pretty solidly DEM city of Salem, but will need to take a closer look at precinct data in some detail...

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« Reply #23 on: December 23, 2022, 05:56:55 PM »

Okay, back to Yamhill County as the first Exhibit of a significant decrease in DEM Turnout compared to PUB turnout between the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections.

Because of the changes in precinct boundaries in some of the rural precincts, I have basically split Yamhill County into three categories, the two medium sized cities of McMinville and Newberg, and then lumped rurals and several miscellaneous small towns (Sheridan, Dayton, etc..) into one bucket.

For context here is the county vote share by place between 2016 and 2022 in terms of both Registered voters, as well as % of total ballots accepted:



The first stop is to look at the raw Turnout numbers by Party by place for the 2016 through 2022 General Elections.

Here are the numbers in a table based format:



Here are the numbers in a graph style format:



Several initial observations:

1.) The largest City of McMinville has been steadily increasing its Registered Vote Share from 2016 to 2022, but in terms of actual votes counted was effectively stagnant between '16 and '20, and then sharply cratering in the 2022 midterms.

2.) We see a similar pattern in the 2nd largest city of Newberg, with the difference being that Newberg actually lost a bit of Registered Voter share between '20 and '22, while holding relatively steady in terms of actual county vote share if we compare 2018 to 2022.

3.) The "OTHER" category has been gradually shrinking as a % of the vote share since 2016, but yet was able to achieve the highest % of vote share of the past four elections.

I'll get back to that later, probably once I get to actual election results.

4.) If we look at the raw Turnout by Place Table we can see how significant the change in voter composition was in terms of likely impacting the 2022 election results.

Republicans have traditionally had a Turnout advantage in Yamhill County, but between the 2018 and 2022 elections, there was an additional +1.3k NET addition to PUB RAW TO votes for a Total +3.4k PUB RAW TO lead in 2022.


5.) Most of this TO gap is explained by the OTHER category where DEMs actually lost (130) raw votes between 2018 and 2022 and PUBs gained ~1.5k raw votes.

6.) It is important to note that voters not registered with either of the two largest parties, also gained about 1.5k votes between '18 and '22.

The tricky part is determining *how* this may have impacted final election results in 2022.

7.) Overall solidly Democratic McMinville gained a total of (500) votes, "Tilt PUB" Newberg (850) votes, and OTHERS a whopping 1.3k votes between '18 and '22.

Now let's look at the Turnout numbers in a % format.

Here is a table of % Turnout by Party and Place:



and in a chart format:



What does this slightly different view tell us?

1.) The overall turnout % gap between 2018 and 2022 was atrocious for DEMs in Yamhill County overall.

Granted the 2018 Turnout gap was the lowest of the past four general elections, making the swing even larger, but still the 2022 results stand out particularly since the next highest PUB TO "win" in 2016 was only a +2.6% PUB TO lead.

2.) This collapse in DEM TO occurred in all three places: McMinville, Newberg, and OTHERS/RURAL.

      A.) The collapse in DEM TO in 2022 was perhaps most impactful in McMinville, which is pretty much the only reliably DEM vote bank in Yamhill County, so a 4.7% drop in DEM TO between '18 and '22 effectively wiped some (350) DEM ballots.

           It should be noted that there is a tiny silver lining for DEMs in McMinville, in that it is the only place where PUB TO % dropped between 2018 and 2022 (By roughly 0.3%).

          Some of this might be explained by a theoretical decrease in young turnout levels, since after all there is a college in McMinville, but will need to look at precinct data to assess.

      B.) The TO drop in Newberg was less pronounced for DEMs, however PUBs increased their total turnout by +3.7% between '18 and '22 in a city where DEMs gained Total RVs significantly between '16/ '18 into '20/'22 while PUBs remained relatively stagnant between '16 and '22 in terms of total RVs.

     C.) The "OTHER" category is slightly less significant for DEMs since 57% of both their RV and acutal vote share within the county are in McMinville and Newberg in both '20 and '22, so a couple points drop in DEM % numbers actually counts for a bit less of a hit than elsewhere.

         However, the OTHER category accounts for about 53-55% of the PUB county vote share, so a +2.0% PUB TO gain between '18 and '22 literally adds several hundred additional NET PUB ballots between these two elections.

3.) 3rd Party Voters / NAVs

         Here it gets a bit murky trying to read the tea leaves, since we don't necessarily have a clear picture of the partisan leaning of many of these voters, and how many are true independent / persuadable, swing voters, etc...

         I *suspect* that only 42% of NAV's turnout out in '22 versus the 48% in '18 in McMinville, most likely came disproportionately DEM leaning voters, but maybe once we look at the actual election results it might help flesh things out a bit more.

        The drop of NAVs / 3rd Party in Newberg and OTHERs was relatively modest dropping only a couple points between '18 and '22, although it should be noted that despite loss of % TO, the total NET NAV voters increased considerably between the two mid-term elections.

Next Stop: Time to start rolling some actual election result numbers for Yamhill County.

I have a few data-sets missing so might not publish until after the Holiday weekend...

         

         

           


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