OR GOV NRCC INTERNAL DRAZEN + 1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1566957035140399104?t=Kniq8zE9V53gkMDpU812sw&s=19

Drazen-R 33
KOTEK-D INC ST 32
Johnson-I 21

[wbrocks67]

Another "Clout Research" GOP internal with only 397 voters and the GOP candidate barely pushing 30%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Will Johnson actually get 21% of the vote or come close? I'm not so sure, tbh. 538 just has the 3rd party vote around 11%.

That said, I think there's potential for an upset here regardless of the national environment. This could flip R while AZ still flips D.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats might as well split their money at this point and use half to prop up Kotek as normal and half to torpedo Johnson.

[Calthrina950]

This is certainly a close race, and this year represents the best opportunity Republicans have had in 40 years to win the governorship in Oregon. I've seen many people openly doubt that Johnson can sustain her support at this high of a level, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss her candidacy. From what I've seen, she's been running a solid campaign and does have a lane with the state's electorate. But it's also clear that were it not for her candidacy, Oregon would be Lean, maybe even Likely, D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's called MOE just like PA Gov race but Fetterman is leading it's hard to believe that since Casey and Wolf won back2back that Shapiro will lose if Fetterman wins

[Senator Incitatus]

It's plausible but I think Kotek will ultimately pull it out somewhat comfortably. Reminds me of Massachusetts 2010.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still don't really know what to make of this race, especially when there are still so many undecideds.

It's plausible but I think Kotek will ultimately pull it out somewhat comfortably. Reminds me of Massachusetts 2010.

I can see that too, but I am reminded more of Connecticut in 2018. I've been saying that a lot but ultimately that's what I expect from this race, possibly by a similar margin too.

[Senator Incitatus]

I still don't really know what to make of this race, especially when there are still so many undecideds.

It's plausible but I think Kotek will ultimately pull it out somewhat comfortably. Reminds me of Massachusetts 2010.

I can see that too, but I am reminded more of Connecticut in 2018. I've been saying that a lot but ultimately that's what I expect from this race, possibly by a similar margin too.

I don't really see the comparison there. Johnson should far outperform Greibel thanks to the Phil Knight money and Connecticut 2018 is one where the president's party far outperformed its baseline, whereas Oregon is one where it should far underperform even if Kotek wins.

[Adam Griffin]

Who knows: it may be "close" or even losable, but there's no way this poll is anywhere close to being accurate based on the three candidates' percentages.

Point and counterpoint: no OR DEM gubernatorial nominee has cleared 51% in the 21st century - but no nominee has fallen below 49%, either:

2002: 49.03
2006: 50.73
2010: 49.29
2014: 49.89
2016: 50.62
2018: 50.05

Avg: 49.94

[S019]

There's a real chance Johnson pulls enough voters from the Democrats to hand victory to Drazan. This is a race that I feel pretty concerned about, even if we have a good night in the end. Trump got 40% and the last three R Gov candidates got between 43-44%, Johnson is clearly pulling far more from Democrats than Republicans (just look at how badly Drazan is underperforming Kate Brown's 2016/2018 vote totals), which also suggests that there may be room for Drazan's support to grow. I honestly might move this to Tossup, this could be the year that Republicans finally win the OR Governorship.

[kwabbit]

Who knows: it may be "close" or even losable, but there's no way this poll is anywhere close to being accurate based on the three candidates' percentages.

Point and counterpoint: no OR DEM gubernatorial nominee has cleared 51% in the 21st century - but no nominee has fallen below 49%, either:

2002: 49.03
2006: 50.73
2010: 49.29
2014: 49.89
2016: 50.62
2018: 50.05

Avg: 49.94

Betsy Johnson is essentially guaranteed to get enough where that rule is broken though. It is very interesting that Oregon governor's elections have been so persistently lean Dem, but a sample size of six isn't enough to form a rule. Johnson's a much stronger independent candidate than any of those have featured. She is very well-funded and positioned in the middle of the electorate, not just some right wing Eastern Oregonian spoiler as in the past.

[Tintrlvr]

Who knows: it may be "close" or even losable, but there's no way this poll is anywhere close to being accurate based on the three candidates' percentages.

Point and counterpoint: no OR DEM gubernatorial nominee has cleared 51% in the 21st century - but no nominee has fallen below 49%, either:

2002: 49.03
2006: 50.73
2010: 49.29
2014: 49.89
2016: 50.62
2018: 50.05

Avg: 49.94

Errr... wow. That's astonishingly consistent. Oregon is notoriously polarized, but that's pretty extraordinary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still don't really know what to make of this race, especially when there are still so many undecideds.

It's plausible but I think Kotek will ultimately pull it out somewhat comfortably. Reminds me of Massachusetts 2010.

I can see that too, but I am reminded more of Connecticut in 2018. I've been saying that a lot but ultimately that's what I expect from this race, possibly by a similar margin too.

I don't really see the comparison there. Johnson should far outperform Greibel thanks to the Phil Knight money and Connecticut 2018 is one where the president's party far outperformed its baseline, whereas Oregon is one where it should far underperform even if Kotek wins.

I say that because we have an unpopular incumbent whose shadow is is being cast over their party nominee's successor and over the race entirely in a solidly Democratic state that will probably end up with a shockingly close result that still gives the Democrat the win in the end. Assuming it ends up this way, of course.

And Betsy Johnson's presence makes this campaign more unique, of course. Certainly that's different.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The reason Betsy is getting a lot is the main campaign ads seem to be against her as the side that loses less of their support to her will get a bump so they are trying to define Betsy as either Republican Lite or Democratic Lite.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I still don't really know what to make of this race, especially when there are still so many undecideds.

It's plausible but I think Kotek will ultimately pull it out somewhat comfortably. Reminds me of Massachusetts 2010.

I can see that too, but I am reminded more of Connecticut in 2018. I've been saying that a lot but ultimately that's what I expect from this race, possibly by a similar margin too.

I am not familiar with CT but was their local dissatisfaction there cause here there is a lot :

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/05/13/portland-oregon-crime-homelessness-gloom-election-politics/

Eleven years later, as nightly protests over police violence gave way to destructive acts and no end of negative attention, Blumenauer appeared on C-SPAN to contest the notion that Portland was a “city in chaos” and to rail against federal forces for stirring up trouble.

Now coasting toward a 14th term in the U.S. House, the bicycle-crazy Democratic statesman is about to experience a political pinnacle. A bike and pedestrian bridge named in his honor will open in Northeast Portland this summer

But lately, Blumenauer isn’t bragging quite so loudly about the Rose City.

“Portland is broken,” he said in a statement in February announcing his reelection bid.

Polling from DHM Research shows that voters are far less happy with the city’s trajectory today than at any time in the last 30 years, when the firm began asking. A rock-bottom 8% of voters say Portland is headed in the right direction, down from 38% before the pandemic, and percentages that routinely hit the high 50s and mid 60s earlier this century.

Separate research by the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center has also turned up deep pessimism: 82% of Multnomah County residents surveyed in April reported being either somewhat or very worried about the future of their part of the state.

“I’ve been on the scene since ‘77,” said Adam Davis, a pollster and executive director of the organization. “I’ve never seen anything like this. Seriously.”

Like even Kotek is trying to run away from Portland now:

Kotek, though, has put the blame elsewhere. At a recent debate, she lit into Portland leadership when homelessness came up.

“I’m not happy with Mayor [Ted] Wheeler’s performance,” she said. “I’ve worked specifically to say, ‘Here’s money for an RV park.’ Where is it? When I said ‘You need $2 million to clean up trash and graffiti on [the Oregon Department of Transportation’s] property,’ it was there. I don’t believe the city is focused in the way that they should. ... And as governor, we’re going to have some different conversations about ways to make that happen.”

Now I still give the edge to Kotek as Drazen isnt really an assertive campaigner or debater