2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

And yet Cartwright and Wild don’t get the same benefit of the doubt.

Also they think presidential turnout will help Boebert in her Trump/Polis seat but not CA-47 Dems in a Biden/Dahle seat.

[wbrocks67]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

And yet Cartwright and Wild don’t get the same benefit of the doubt.

Also they think presidential turnout will help Boebert in her Trump/Polis seat but not CA-47 Dems in a Biden/Dahle seat.

Yeah, really odd that somehow Ciscomani, who is in a marginal Biden seat, barely won by like 1% is somehow Lean R, yet Cartwright/Wild, who have consistently proven people wrong, in slightly more red districts, aren't given the same benefit of the doubt?

[prag_prog]

Fun fact time! Cook literally only got one seat wrong in 2022: WA-3, where Perez beat Kent. They had that seat as Leans R; no other seat that they predicted as Leans or Likely went for the other party. (This might mean that they're way too conservative with their tossups. Races that Cook called a 'Tossup' broke pretty hard Democratic in 2022, 25-11. OTOH, this compares extremely favorably to 2020 when Republicans swept every race Cook labelled a Tossup, 27-0, along with winning 5 Leans D seats and a Likely D; you have to contend with them having learned earlier lessons.)

In general, Tossups normally break towards one party or another; they basically never split down the middle.

easy to only get one wrong when they had like nearly 40 seats as tossups

[Pollster]

Fun fact time! Cook literally only got one seat wrong in 2022: WA-3, where Perez beat Kent. They had that seat as Leans R; no other seat that they predicted as Leans or Likely went for the other party. (This might mean that they're way too conservative with their tossups. Races that Cook called a 'Tossup' broke pretty hard Democratic in 2022, 25-11. OTOH, this compares extremely favorably to 2020 when Republicans swept every race Cook labelled a Tossup, 27-0, along with winning 5 Leans D seats and a Likely D; you have to contend with them having learned earlier lessons.)

In general, Tossups normally break towards one party or another; they basically never split down the middle.

easy to only get one wrong when they had like nearly 40 seats as tossups

To be fair, they were correct about that too!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They said Laura Kelly was gonna lose to Schmidt are we gonna keep looking at ratings no we should not, they are only a guide not the end all be all, Real clear had RS taking the Senate, because why they thought Oz was gonna win polls underestimate blk and D's support just like Biden Approvals are consistent under 50 and he beats Trump and Desantis in PPP or You Gov or Echelon polls 52/48

Brown is gonna overperform Ryan once again in 24 because Mike DeWine isn't on the ballot , he always run in more favorite environments but Vance is up in 28 and Greg Landsman can defeat him

That's why I leave OH Lean R even in this Environment OH and NC can go D

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1628758577362894849?cxt=HHwWgoCwyf3SwZotAAAA

I think these are generally reasonable.

Katie Porter’s seat a toss-up? Biden won it by 11 points and downballot lag is like 6-7 points at best here. They have Levin at Likely D in a nearly identical seat. They shouldn’t be separated by more than 1 rating TBH.

By this logic Boebert’s seat should be a toss up because she won a Trump+8 seat by 0.1.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/darkblueman8022/status/1628560698765721602https://twitter.com/richdicriscio/status/1629275902210105350

[Spectator]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

And yet Cartwright and Wild don’t get the same benefit of the doubt.

Also they think presidential turnout will help Boebert in her Trump/Polis seat but not CA-47 Dems in a Biden/Dahle seat.

It is really weird. If CA-47 is a tossup, I think they are assuming a year that is way more Republican-friendly than the rest of these seats would predict. Why doesn't Cartwright get the same benefit of the doubt as Bacon? He's held on in a similarly tough seat cycle after cycle.

I do think Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean and Kiggans starting out as Lean R (until we see their oponents) is a defensible call, but Ciscomani and Boebert is a weird one to lump in with them.

[wbrocks67]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

And yet Cartwright and Wild don’t get the same benefit of the doubt.

Also they think presidential turnout will help Boebert in her Trump/Polis seat but not CA-47 Dems in a Biden/Dahle seat.

It is really weird. If CA-47 is a tossup, I think they are assuming a year that is way more Republican-friendly than the rest of these seats would predict. Why doesn't Cartwright get the same benefit of the doubt as Bacon? He's held on in a similarly tough seat cycle after cycle.

I do think Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean and Kiggans starting out as Lean R (until we see their oponents) is a defensible call, but Ciscomani and Boebert is a weird one to lump in with them.

Much like in 2022, it's clear these prognosticator sites are still deathly afraid of being wrong in the Democrats direction again so I'm gonna assume they're gonna keep being generous to the Rs for the foreseeable future at this point

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1630063768624308225

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a blue wave 🌊🌊 🌊 I sense it that's why I made a Filibuster proof Trifecta why are RS losing in KY and MS they are supposed to sweep

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/darkblueman8022/status/1628560698765721602https://twitter.com/richdicriscio/status/1629275902210105350

1/3 down, 2 to go.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barb Lee is at 6 percent in the polls right now in CA, she is almost as old as Feinstein but Allred and Gilchrist of course they can win

[wbrocks67]

Split/Ticket has their 2024 House ratings out. I honestly think they have the best set yet - and continue to be much more on the ball and in tune with reality than Cook/Crystal Ball IMO. Only ones I disagree with are Bacon, Kiggans, and James being Lean R. Those 3 should all be Tossup imo. Kiggans is literally a Biden seat, and she barely won by 3 in a "red year" - that one puzzles me the most in all of these.

Also they actually stayed with the current OH and NC lines and said they'll update whenever we get new ones, exactly what cook/crystal should've done.

S/T is still new and working things out, but they definitely - at least for now - seem to suffer from much less 'pundit brain' than Cook/Crystal

https://split-ticket.org/2023/03/08/our-2024-house-ratings/

[Tekken_Guy]

Split/Ticket has their 2024 House ratings out. I honestly think they have the best set yet - and continue to be much more on the ball and in tune with reality than Cook/Crystal Ball IMO. Only ones I disagree with are Bacon, Kiggans, and James being Lean R. Those 3 should all be Tossup imo. Kiggans is literally a Biden seat, and she barely won by 3 in a "red year" - that one puzzles me the most in all of these.

Also they actually stayed with the current OH and NC lines and said they'll update whenever we get new ones, exactly what cook/crystal should've done.

S/T is still new and working things out, but they definitely - at least for now - seem to suffer from much less 'pundit brain' than Cook/Crystal

https://split-ticket.org/2023/03/08/our-2024-house-ratings/

Elections Daily is also less pundit brainy
https://elections-daily.com/2023/02/27/elections-dailys-inaugural-2024-house-ratings/

They have Bacon and Kiggans at toss-ups, but all four of them have James (and Boebert) at Lean R. They’re also the only ones with Wagner, Wittman, and Garbarino on the board.

[wbrocks67]

I get being cautious, but some of these names are a bit surprising. Budzinski literally won by like 12% last year.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1634172013362159617

[Gracile]

I get being cautious, but some of these names are a bit surprising. Budzinski literally won by like 12% last year.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1634172013362159617

Some of these incumbents like Budzinski and Scholten even outran Biden in their districts which are already favorable for Democrats based on 2020 presidential results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

H is gone for RS

Senate
OH, MT, AZ LEAN D

TOSSUP

MO/WVA  

SAFE R FL/TX

I have a sneaky feeling MO is gonna be close due to KS


Newsflash it was a blue wave we won KS and AK in 22 all this 303 map stuff is hogwash and never underestimate Brown and Tester, Manchin and Kunce


That's why I rate AZ, MT and OH as Lean D and MO/WV Tossup and FL and TX S safe R

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

Most will just go for the PA seats.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

Most will just go for the PA seats.

I guess there’s an argument, but even with Mastriano and Oz bearing the ticket down, it was still in a midterm with 8% inflation and Biden at 40% approval. Cartwright and Wild had no business holding on, but did anyway. I think they start at Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303/350 Map with Carolinas, KS/MO AND OH as wave insurance and sometimes AK that's 355 and 303 is the rust belt

KS and MO can vote D because Abortion is on the ballot no D have announced for G but Sen elect Kunce, Mel Carnahan, Jean Carnahan, Holden, McCaskill and Nixon and Bob Holden have been elected

SC is going first Joe Cunningham was down 49/41 and Trudy Valentine was closing in but it went R and so did Ryan and Beasley but that was a Midterm

Obama won 50/45 and won 337 EC votes 65)60 M Biden  can win by 5o/45 65/60 M and get a better map than 20

There are 65/60 M more D's than RS because older WC woman are the fastest growing D group and vote with blk and brown 55/45 D

We are only 30 percent of population and FEM account for the majority of the remain vote

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

Most will just go for the PA seats.

I guess there’s an argument, but even with Mastriano and Oz bearing the ticket down, it was still in a midterm with 8% inflation and Biden at 40% approval. Cartwright and Wild had no business holding on, but did anyway. I think they start at Lean D.

In a lot of states 2024 won't be as good of an environment for Democrats as 2022. The level of persuasion achieved is just not possible in a presidential year, especially with Biden still being relatively unpopular. Biden would be winning the PV by 10 with that level of persuasion and that seems pretty unlikely. On the national level it will be a better year for Dems, but Shapiro and Whitmer powered blue waves in their states and in 2024 it will now be Biden's performance instructing the down ballot races.

Cartwright is in a Trump seat and Wild is in a Biden +1 seat. Those are about as tossup-y as it gets. Cartwright's been losing his crossover appeal, doing worse than 2020 despite a better or equal environment in PA is not a great sign for him. If PA is D +1 in the Presidential race again, he would likely lose. Wild is in a better position because her seat is bluer, but Shapiro and Fetterman both won her seat by a lot more than she did. She should beat Scheller in any case, the GOP should find someone else.

The same thing is true in Michigan. The environment in Michigan was extremely good for Democrats and it's not going to be replicated in 2022. This probably doesn't mean any seats flipped, because Kildee is strong and the Lansing seat is trending away from them, but James is in a better position than 2022. Biden won't be winning the seat by double digits like Whitmer did.