NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/kim-murphy-polling-nj-senate-race-00132429

Kim leads by 23. It's an internal but that is still a very big lead. Hard to see how county lines would be enough to evaporate a double digit lead.

There were some early internal polls in AL which had Mo Brooks leading by a huge amount and we all know how that turned out.

That’s not a one to one comparison. Brooks lost Trump’s support which is what killed his campaign. There’s not really an equivalent to democrats

He was severely slipping even before that. Trump rescinded his endorsement because Brooks was polling so poorly and he didn't want a loss on his record.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/kim-murphy-polling-nj-senate-race-00132429

Kim leads by 23. It's an internal but that is still a very big lead. Hard to see how county lines would be enough to evaporate a double digit lead.

There were some early internal polls in AL which had Mo Brooks leading by a huge amount and we all know how that turned out.

That’s not a one to one comparison. Brooks lost Trump’s support which is what killed his campaign. There’s not really an equivalent to democrats

He was severely slipping even before that. Trump rescinded his endorsement because Brooks was polling so poorly and he didn't want a loss on his record.

Regardless there’s no Trump equivalent who can sway the election in Murphy’s favor.

[CookieDamage]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/kim-murphy-polling-nj-senate-race-00132429

Kim leads by 23. It's an internal but that is still a very big lead. Hard to see how county lines would be enough to evaporate a double digit lead.

There were some early internal polls in AL which had Mo Brooks leading by a huge amount and we all know how that turned out.

That’s not a one to one comparison. Brooks lost Trump’s support which is what killed his campaign. There’s not really an equivalent to democrats

He was severely slipping even before that. Trump rescinded his endorsement because Brooks was polling so poorly and he didn't want a loss on his record.

Regardless there’s no Trump equivalent who can sway the election in Murphy’s favor.

Also doesn't she have underwater fav?

[Senator Incitatus]

Regardless there’s no Trump equivalent who can sway the election in Murphy’s favor.

Trump’s endorsement in Alabama meant less (see Luther Strange) than the party endorsement means in New Jersey.

Also doesn't she have underwater fav?

You could have looked this up yourself, but obviously not. PPP has her at 50-9, slightly better than Kim’s 45-5. Kim’s internal, which is a push poll, only takes her down to 35-18.

[Tekken_Guy]

Regardless there’s no Trump equivalent who can sway the election in Murphy’s favor.

Trump’s endorsement in Alabama meant less (see Luther Strange) than the party endorsement means in New Jersey.

She pretty much already has the party endorsement in NJ and is still trailing Kim by 20+ points.

[Ferguson97]

Let’s go Andy!

[kwabbit]

Regardless there’s no Trump equivalent who can sway the election in Murphy’s favor.

Trump’s endorsement in Alabama meant less (see Luther Strange) than the party endorsement means in New Jersey.

She pretty much already has the party endorsement in NJ and is still trailing Kim by 20+ points.

It's six months until the primary. Almost zero people are paying attention to a Senate primary around the holidays. Murphy's advantage would come when most local politicians start going to bat for her and advertising their partnership/ticket. Also, the county line advantage really only comes into play at the ballot box and not through polling. Murphy will get the votes of basically every less informed voter in the counties where she has the line.

[Tekken_Guy]

Regardless there’s no Trump equivalent who can sway the election in Murphy’s favor.

Trump’s endorsement in Alabama meant less (see Luther Strange) than the party endorsement means in New Jersey.

She pretty much already has the party endorsement in NJ and is still trailing Kim by 20+ points.

It's six months until the primary. Almost zero people are paying attention to a Senate primary around the holidays. Murphy's advantage would come when most local politicians start going to bat for her and advertising their partnership/ticket. Also, the county line advantage really only comes into play at the ballot box and not through polling. Murphy will get the votes of basically every less informed voter in the counties where she has the line.

Murphy’s line advantage works in a traditional NJ primary where the off-the-line candidates go into the election with virtually no name recognition or resources. Kim is not a typical off-the-line candidate but a well-known congressman with a dedicated base of grassroots support. And even then the system has shown cracks lately. We saw that with Phil Murphy’s primary in 2017 and he got just 48% of the vote in the primary with near-universal party support. If Kim gets the line in counties where the machines have less influence, and runs up the score with more informed voters in Murphy’s counties, then that’s what he needs to win

Also, Kim is already at 45%. So it’s not a steep a climb as you think.

[Aurelius2]

Tammy Murphy plans to file her exploratory committee this week.

This is still early enough for me (as one rooting for Kim) to consider it tilt Murphy. Kim's sole poll against her is (as noted) impressive, as is his early fundraising total, but absent anything else in the intervening weeks and given the incredible hold the Murphys have over the state party and fundraising apparatus (at least in North Jersey, where the bulk of votes are), they can easily make up the ground by next June. I also don't expect she'd be getting in if she hadn't already had sufficient conversations with the North Jersey bosses like Jones and DiVincenzo and popular figures like Sherrill.

It should be noted that the proxy campaign is already underway between Kim and Murphy—SOMA Action, the progressive group behind the ban on Halloween in Maplewood and South Orange, has put out a ranked-choice ballot for members to define their endorsement. Leadership is squarely for Kim, possibly in retaliation for Governor Murphy's criticism of the Halloween ban, but they've received some backlash for playing politics and running this vote far, far too early in an effort to rig the result.

Kim did hire a highly qualified campaign manager with national connections recently. I expect this to go the distance.

Halloween ban?!?!?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1742957865491374297

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ecaliberseven/status/1746527557892116502
Team Suozzi meming on her from across the rivers:

https://twitter.com/AidanDavisNY/status/1746568837271572984

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1747967492981506057

[wbrocks67]

Proud of Fetterman but especially my SEPA delegation

[wbrocks67]

Sounds about right. I don't think this primary is as Safe Murphy as some people think

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1748058907535114560

[President Johnson]

It would actually be funny for Menendez to stay in the race end up in single digits. It's actually pathetic this guy isn't out of office already.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1748340501772734851?t=nZuZzRGnM6VYD2gJoCxRe...

There's going to be something morbidly hilarious if the senate race ends up between the wives of the 2021 gubernatorial candidates.

[Senator Incitatus]

Didn’t see it posted but Murphy is massively outraising Kim. That’s not a surprise though, and his grassroots support has me encouraged enough to keep the door open for a Kim victory.

[Tekken_Guy]

Didn’t see it posted but Murphy is massively outraising Kim. That’s not a surprise though, and his grassroots support has me encouraged enough to keep the door open for a Kim victory.

Not massively. Murphy only has $100k more on hand than Kim. Also I imagine almost all of it comes form Big Donors, like Sinema’s fundraising.

[Senator Incitatus]

Didn’t see it posted but Murphy is massively outraising Kim. That’s not a surprise though, and his grassroots support has me encouraged enough to keep the door open for a Kim victory.

Not massively. Murphy only has $100k more on hand than Kim. Also I imagine almost all of it comes form Big Donors, like Sinema’s fundraising.

Murphy raised several hundred thousand more in her first six weeks than Kim did in his first fourteen.

[Tekken_Guy]

Didn’t see it posted but Murphy is massively outraising Kim. That’s not a surprise though, and his grassroots support has me encouraged enough to keep the door open for a Kim victory.

Not massively. Murphy only has $100k more on hand than Kim. Also I imagine almost all of it comes form Big Donors, like Sinema’s fundraising.

Murphy raised several hundred thousand more in her first six weeks than Kim did in his first fourteen.

Only about 500k more, which isn’t a lot, and her COH advantage is even smaller. Also Murphy’s donors came from a smaller pool of wealthier individuals who were more likely to max out, so I expect Kim to hold up better in the coming quarters.

Basically Murphy is the DeSantis of the race to Kim’s Trump.

[Talleyrand]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1750156750697680985

Malinowski has endorsed Kim and won't run for the seat.

https://twitter.com/traceytully/status/1750212224663142524

Murphy responded by attacking Malinowski for his "financial dealings."

[Progressive Pessimist]

That's not exactly the kind of endorsement to help Kim, but I don't think it hurts either.

[MarkD]

Why hasn't Menendez announced yet whether he is going to run for reelection?!

[Thank you for being a friend...]

NJ has never had a woman represent it in the Senate right?  One of a dwindling number of remaining states that have not had that?  I know PA is one too.

Still I like Andy Kim for Senate and hope he wins.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/traceytully/status/1750212224663142524

Murphy responded by attacking Malinowski for his "financial dealings."

Ugh, that's Trump-like behaviour. Entitlement is oozing from every word of this press release.