NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Horus]

Ok yeah Norcross likely backing Murphy changed everything for me as well.

Likely Murphy unless Norcross's mind changes

Why would Norcross back Murphy? Does he have something against Andy Kim?

Kim is anti corruption.

[kwabbit]

Ok yeah Norcross likely backing Murphy changed everything for me as well.

Likely Murphy unless Norcross's mind changes

Why would Norcross back Murphy? Does he have something against Andy Kim?

I have no idea personally. I thought he'd back Kim due to Kim also being from South New Jersey.

Maybe Murphy approached Norcross and made some sort of backdoor deal?

It doesn’t sound like she’s confident the North Jersey machines will carry her to victory all on their own. The fact that she needs Norcross seems like desperation rather than strength.

I’d bet Norcross initiated. After his showing on Tuesday he can provide a decisive endorsement in the Senate race and demonstrate his power that way.

[Ferguson97]

If they split the Dem field, maybe Menendez has a chance of winning the primary?

He's polling a cool 6%. He'd need about 90 other candidates to evenly split the vote for him to have a chance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think an under-discussed factor here is that Kim is running as anti-machine candidate who openly supports abolishing the county line system.  That is a major threat to someone like Norcross.  Not only would it show that you can win in New Jersey without kissing the ring of at least some of the state’s County machine bosses, the county line system is a major part of how the New Jersey machine bosses maintain their iron fisted grip on NJ Democratic politics. 

I was worried Kim shot himself in the foot by coming out for the abolition of the county-line system before the primary and that looks to have been the case.  I mean, if you’re Norcross you’d normally leap at the chance to have a south or even mid-Jersey Senator…b/c he’s more likely to be your creature and it lets you flex the southern NJ/Camden machine’s muscles making you even more relevant.  But if the guy’s whole schtick is “I’m a good guy who is unbought and unbossed, plus I support the elimination of one of the main ways your machine exercises control in primaries” …well…why would someone like George Norcross support such a candidate. 

I think the brief talk of Don Norcross running was really b/c George Norcross initially wasn’t sure if a south-Jersey spoiler was needed to stop Kim.  Honestly, this puts Kim in a bit of a bind.  At this point, he’s the decided underdog against Murphy.  Now he could certainly drop down and run for reelection to the House.  However, it really undercuts his brand - and both makes him look weak and Norcross look even stronger - if he drops out because it’s hopeless without Norcross’ support.  Plus, it irritates pols in NJ-3 who backed Kim, but were also gearing up to run for the open seat.  Seems like a lose-lose for Kim tbh. 

I think this all makes perfect sense from Norcross’ POV.  It is also a great reminder that when looking at the establishment and local machines in states like NY and NJ, their actions are primarily motivated by personal self-interest rather than ideology or regionalism considerations.  When you look at the race through that lens, it would be shocking if Norcross didn’t back Murphy over Kim.

It’s a bit like the Buffalo Mayor’s race where India Walton’s “sin” wasn’t being a left-winger; it was that she successfully primaried the machine choice.  She stood up to the local political machine and that was something the NY Democratic Party could not abide. 

Or take NY-4 in 2022: Laura Gillen was a solid recruit who would make a great Congresswoman for her district.  She won the primary with 62% and the “electable” semi-ConservaDem Keith Corbett came in a distant third with 11%.  And yet Gillen narrowly lost the GE because NY Dem Chair Jay Jacobs did everything he could to make sure the NY Democratic Party undermined her at every turn while actively sabotaging efforts at party unity.  Basically, he clearly wanted D’Esposito to win instead of her and this cycle, he made sure another credible candidate jumped into the primary against Gillen.  Why?  Well even though Corbett was clearly an overhyped candidate with little appeal who Democratic voters resoundingly rejected, he was buddies with Jay Jacobs.  Gillen humiliated Jacobs by winning without him and easily beating his protege on Jacobs’ home turf.  And Jacobs would rather a Republican win that let someone get away with challenging his influence like that.  But I digress…

TL;DR: It makes sense that Norcross is backing Murphy.  Kim is a reformist, anti-machine candidate and Norcross is a south NJ machine boss.  Why would any NJ boss endorse someone who wants to eliminate the county line system when there was another credible candidate who wasn’t calling for the abolition of one of Norcross’ most effective means of asserting power?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Well that ended quickly. I wonder what made Norcross jump ship given it was heavily implied Kim was running with the backing of Southern machines.

Just absolutely ridiculous. Kim has actually put in the work to be elevated to senator. Murphy hasn't done any of the actual work to deserve this.

This isn’t true, he declared assuming he had the support of southern machines, he wouldn’t have run otherwise. Anyways I think Murphy will be a good Senator for us and I look forward to voting for her next fall.

On what political issues is Murphy better than Andy Kim on? What even are her political positions?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Opposing the county line system is logical for the brand Kim tries to represent. He doesn't strike me as the kind of person who wouldn't have thought about the party machine opposing him for opposing the party machine.

Obviously his calculation is that the anti-Mendendez sentiment translates to anti-establishment sentiment, appealing to enough grassroots supporters to carry him over the finish line without the help of the machine. That might work, maybe it doesn't.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Opposing the county line system is logical for the brand Kim tries to represent. He doesn't strike me as the kind of person who wouldn't have thought about the party machine opposing him for opposing the party machine.

Obviously his calculation is that the anti-Mendendez sentiment translates to anti-establishment sentiment, appealing to enough grassroots supporters to carry him over the finish line without the help of the machine. That might work, maybe it doesn't.

Sure, but my point is that doing so also gives folks like Norcross a vested interest in making sure he loses.

[Tekken_Guy]

Come to think of it I think there is a narrow pathway for Kim to win this race, and Phil Murphy’s 2017 primary map shows how.

Murphy had unanimous backing of the party machines, beat his closest opponent by over 20 points, and won 20 out of 21 counties, only losing Salem by 3 votes. But, he ended up getting just 48% of the vote, showing that he wasn’t super popular with the NJ primary electorate. His opposition was split, with two other candidates getting around 20-25% of the vote each and the remaining 10% going to some minor candidates. Had the opposition consolidated around a single candidate he would have won by a fairly close margin, or even narrowly lost.

If Andy Kim consolidates the support of people who voted against Phil Murphy in the 2017 primary, flips several voters in his base in the south, and Menendez peels off voters from Tammy in Hudson, then Kim could actually win.

Not saying that’s what’s going to happen or even the most likely scenario, but it’s a possibility.

[mpbond]

I agree that the county ballot line problem is a significant challenge for Kim, but keep in mind the party machine is king until it's not anymore. Look at the old-school Boston machine, they once dominated every level of city government and in just 2 election cycles have been relegated to just 3 city council seats. Statewide, machine dems have to run serious campaigns against progressive challengers, which they often lose badly. NJ is one of the last states where the "old" democratic party can outcompete the "new" democratic party, but it doesn't take long for that dynamic to completely flip.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1724774500355731670?t=PKi_eDha0xAdHaItr3msA...

DOA

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

I wouldn't get too comfortable if I'm Kim, but it's easy for some of us to forget that most voters are not voting based on machine politics anymore; we've seen plenty of "establishment choice" candidates lose primaries to candidates with much more grassroots support (looking at you, Conor Lamb!)

[riceowl]

I thought she was running for gov or the house

[CookieDamage]

I wouldn't get too comfortable if I'm Kim, but it's easy for some of us to forget that most voters are not voting based on machine politics anymore; we've seen plenty of "establishment choice" candidates lose primaries to candidates with much more grassroots support (looking at you, Conor Lamb!)

Also if he gets his name rec up and people want to vote for him they will find his name and vote.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I wouldn't get too comfortable if I'm Kim, but it's easy for some of us to forget that most voters are not voting based on machine politics anymore; we've seen plenty of "establishment choice" candidates lose primaries to candidates with much more grassroots support (looking at you, Conor Lamb!)

Pennsylvania primaries aren't anywhere comparable to NJ because of the county line which almost never loses.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1724774500355731670?t=PKi_eDha0xAdHaItr3msA...

DOA

Encouraging, but it's early and Murphy just launched her campaign.

Menendez still hasn't officially bowed out? What a fool.

[Blue3]

NJ First Lady to challenge Senator Menendez (plagued for years by corruption allegations, currently in a new round) in the New Jersey Senate Democratic primaries:

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tammy-murphy-senate-run-menendez_n_654e8a0fe4b0c9f24660225e

[Badger]

NJ First Lady to challenge Senator Menendez (plagued for years by corruption allegations, currently in a new round) in the New Jersey Senate Democratic primaries:

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tammy-murphy-senate-run-menendez_n_654e8a0fe4b0c9f24660225e

Should be moved to the 2024 Congressional elections thread.

While I'm here though, any prognosis about her chances? Really don't like the idea of her being a potential spoiler for Andy Kim.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1724791390125920699
https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1724797269034389536

[Tekken_Guy]

You have to remember there is no modern precedent for an Andy Kim-style anti-establishment campaign in New Jersey. None of Cory Booker’s primary opponents in 2013 or Phil Murphy’s in 2017 made a serious attempt to win without help from the line. Yet Murphy’s own 2017 primary performance was a lot less impressive that it appears at the surface level, as he only got 48% of the vote, which shows some cracks in the county line system that Kim can pry open.

[jman123]

Hudson county Dem party endorsed Tammy Murphy. Menendez home base.

What is going to happen with his Son a sitting congressman? The mayor of Menendezs' home town endorsed murphy

[Utah Neolib]

You have to remember there is no modern precedent for an Andy Kim-style anti-establishment campaign in New Jersey. None of Cory Booker’s primary opponents in 2013 or Phil Murphy’s in 2017 made a serious attempt to win without help from the line. Yet Murphy’s own 2017 primary performance was a lot less impressive that it appears at the surface level, as he only got 48% of the vote, which shows some cracks in the county line system that Kim can pry open.

RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE
(please make this the thread title)

[Atlas Force]

He really is going to burn it all down on his way out:

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1724928600229486998

[Oryxslayer]

He really is going to burn it all down on his way out:

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1724928600229486998

Hudson and the Northern machine is behaving like business as usual and following the state party insiders. They see the polling, they know they win no friends by standing by someone on track to get <15% of the vote. But Menendez has a huge nest egg from before things collapsed, and he can run a vindictive burn-down-machine  campaign if he so desires. Its probably the best thing that can happen for Kim. The machine though does have other strings to pull, like endorsing against Menendez Jr, so we'll see if he carries through on his threats.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1725578548017086962?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[Senator Incitatus]

Bergen and Middlesex also endorsed Murphy. This is moving in her direction way, way more quickly than I expected. There is no traditional lane for Kim to win now; he’s going to have to make this a referendum on the state party as a whole, rather than just Menendez. Too early to call anything safe, unless Kim decides it’s smarter to run for re-election.