NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Tekken_Guy]

Kim has the ability to fundraise on being the anti-Menendez and hasn’t yet gotten his name out, so it’s hard to see this as a sign of voter support, and the Murphys can spend millions faster than he can raise it.

This is great news but I’m continuing to caution against your fantasies since they’re based on having no idea who Tammy Murphy is. (Gottheimer also won’t be intimidated by this.)

Why are you so sure Murphy is going to win?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

So funny to see Jeff Van Drew attempting to grift his way to higher office representing two political parties within 5 years.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Hopefully Kim can combine the southern county lines with Northern progressives and resist libs.

[kwabbit]

Kim has the ability to fundraise on being the anti-Menendez and hasn’t yet gotten his name out, so it’s hard to see this as a sign of voter support, and the Murphys can spend millions faster than he can raise it.

This is great news but I’m continuing to caution against your fantasies since they’re based on having no idea who Tammy Murphy is. (Gottheimer also won’t be intimidated by this.)

Why are you so sure Murphy is going to win?

She’ll have unlimited money and the support of the governor. That could be enough to sway some Northern county parties. Kim having a good first week and raising a million doesn’t mean that much IMO. A competitive primary would cost a lot more than that and it’ll be a long time before the counties decide their slates. I foresee a bimodal distribution of outcomes. The first is that Tammy Murphy launches and completely flops as she is viewed as unqualified and only there since her husband is gov, or she launches and is immediately competitive, at which point most of the North Jersey county parties coalesce behind her and she wins clearly.  I don’t see a 50-35 Kim-Murphy scenario as particularly likely.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kim has the ability to fundraise on being the anti-Menendez and hasn’t yet gotten his name out, so it’s hard to see this as a sign of voter support, and the Murphys can spend millions faster than he can raise it.

This is great news but I’m continuing to caution against your fantasies since they’re based on having no idea who Tammy Murphy is. (Gottheimer also won’t be intimidated by this.)

Why are you so sure Murphy is going to win?

She’ll have unlimited money and the support of the governor. That could be enough to sway some Northern county parties. Kim having a good first week and raising a million doesn’t mean that much IMO. A competitive primary would cost a lot more than that and it’ll be a long time before the counties decide their slates. I foresee a bimodal distribution of outcomes. The first is that Tammy Murphy launches and completely flops as she is viewed as unqualified and only there since her husband is gov, or she launches and is immediately competitive, at which point most of the North Jersey county parties coalesce behind her and she wins clearly.  I don’t see a 50-35 Kim-Murphy scenario as particularly likely.

I could see outcome 3 happen where Kim runs a really strong off the line campaign in North Jersey and runs roughly even with Murphy in white educated areas, while killing it in the south. White voters tend to be more persuadable and it’s generally voters of color who tend to stick with the county lines the most, and Menendez could cut into a lot of Murphy’s support there.

[kwabbit]

Kim has the ability to fundraise on being the anti-Menendez and hasn’t yet gotten his name out, so it’s hard to see this as a sign of voter support, and the Murphys can spend millions faster than he can raise it.

This is great news but I’m continuing to caution against your fantasies since they’re based on having no idea who Tammy Murphy is. (Gottheimer also won’t be intimidated by this.)

Why are you so sure Murphy is going to win?

She’ll have unlimited money and the support of the governor. That could be enough to sway some Northern county parties. Kim having a good first week and raising a million doesn’t mean that much IMO. A competitive primary would cost a lot more than that and it’ll be a long time before the counties decide their slates. I foresee a bimodal distribution of outcomes. The first is that Tammy Murphy launches and completely flops as she is viewed as unqualified and only there since her husband is gov, or she launches and is immediately competitive, at which point most of the North Jersey county parties coalesce behind her and she wins clearly.  I don’t see a 50-35 Kim-Murphy scenario as particularly likely.

I could see outcome 3 happen where Kim runs a really strong off the line campaign in North Jersey and runs roughly even with Murphy in white educated areas, while killing it in the south. White voters tend to be more persuadable and it’s generally voters of color who tend to stick with the county lines the most, and Menendez could cut into a lot of Murphy’s support there.

Hudson is only one of many large, diverse counties. Middlesex, Union, Bergen, Passaic, and Essex will not have minority voters in lockstep for Menendez. It’s not a sure thing that Menendez will even carry cities like Elizabeth, Perth Amboy, or Paterson. Any victory for him would have easy wins there but  Murphy could clean up against Kim in a Menendez collapse.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kim has the ability to fundraise on being the anti-Menendez and hasn’t yet gotten his name out, so it’s hard to see this as a sign of voter support, and the Murphys can spend millions faster than he can raise it.

This is great news but I’m continuing to caution against your fantasies since they’re based on having no idea who Tammy Murphy is. (Gottheimer also won’t be intimidated by this.)

Why are you so sure Murphy is going to win?

She’ll have unlimited money and the support of the governor. That could be enough to sway some Northern county parties. Kim having a good first week and raising a million doesn’t mean that much IMO. A competitive primary would cost a lot more than that and it’ll be a long time before the counties decide their slates. I foresee a bimodal distribution of outcomes. The first is that Tammy Murphy launches and completely flops as she is viewed as unqualified and only there since her husband is gov, or she launches and is immediately competitive, at which point most of the North Jersey county parties coalesce behind her and she wins clearly.  I don’t see a 50-35 Kim-Murphy scenario as particularly likely.

I could see outcome 3 happen where Kim runs a really strong off the line campaign in North Jersey and runs roughly even with Murphy in white educated areas, while killing it in the south. White voters tend to be more persuadable and it’s generally voters of color who tend to stick with the county lines the most, and Menendez could cut into a lot of Murphy’s support there.

Hudson is only one of many large, diverse counties. Middlesex, Union, Bergen, Passaic, and Essex will not have minority voters in lockstep for Menendez. It’s not a sure thing that Menendez will even carry cities like Elizabeth, Perth Amboy, or Paterson. Any victory would but  Murphy could clean up.

I’m not saying he’d win those areas but he’d possibly siphon off small but significant chunks of voters who would otherwise go to Murphy, and that Kim would be competitive in the whiter areas of North Jersey even without the line.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1708837707474935973

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1709588862165565770

[Atlas Force]

*insert Atlas poster joke here*

https://twitter.com/abalcerzak/status/1709521110532862173

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1709588862165565770

That's a good sign that he might not run again after all, even if he still serves the remainder of his term. It's probably the best we can hope for.

*insert Atlas poster joke here*

https://twitter.com/abalcerzak/status/1709521110532862173

Yikes! This certainly makes things tougher for these two.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1709924210162696238?t=I2l-E60fQ5Y-9aCI9kZFDg&a...

First primary poll alert! Unsurprisingly,  Menendez has a awful approval. Kim easily defeats him in the Two-Way, and Murphy in the three way. Murphys though best described as unknown so the data on the 3-way is less obvious. But the poll was probably released to dissuade her. The same though could also be said of Kim who has around 40% of the electorate not know who he is (likely concentrated in north jersey) with <10% of democrats disappointed in his service.

https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1709921535153054192?t=smEZH_EdtK5UiGQVMX...

Also in this article,  Pallone takes himself off the table, and Sherrill and Gottheimer are 100% running for Gov. Which in theory makes the 3-way the most likely outcome until Murphy says anything.

[Sir Mohamed]

Although vastly different circumstances, I'm getting Cuomo vibes. Some people just don't understand when it's time to go.

[wbrocks67]

Very glad to see Menendez flopping so badly even in a 3-way. However, still no reason for Murphy to get in. Just let it be Kim at this point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So I guess there is a difference between the Democratic and the Republican party.
In the Democratic party getting indicted doesn't help you win a primary.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Shoutout to the 5% of Democrats who are Menendez-Murphy voters.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1709991734925574628?t=XOYDtCltmLCN-Jnk...

Second poll today on to primary.  78% of democrats say Menendez should resign. Unlike the previous poll, the multi-battery selection is not very helpful, since 3 named options are not going to enter the race. Does help show Menendez can't win even if the field gets crowded.

[Ferguson97]

6%? Holy crap he's cooked.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, I think Kim has this. He was very wise to announce as soon as he did.

Now the big question will be whether Menendez wants to spare himself the humiliation of losing the primary or staying in the Senate while the bad news continues compounding for him and his wife.

[Senator Incitatus]

Great poll for Kim. He has a real shot at clearing the field.

[SilverStar]

Menendez should get 0% in the primary

[wbrocks67]

This man needs to resign.

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1712500782375784654

[patzer]

Incredible. Unregistered Egyptian foreign agent.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1712503547940499479

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1718999058411294729

[Senator Incitatus]

Tammy Murphy plans to file her exploratory committee this week.

This is still early enough for me (as one rooting for Kim) to consider it tilt Murphy. Kim's sole poll against her is (as noted) impressive, as is his early fundraising total, but absent anything else in the intervening weeks and given the incredible hold the Murphys have over the state party and fundraising apparatus (at least in North Jersey, where the bulk of votes are), they can easily make up the ground by next June. I also don't expect she'd be getting in if she hadn't already had sufficient conversations with the North Jersey bosses like Jones and DiVincenzo and popular figures like Sherrill.

It should be noted that the proxy campaign is already underway between Kim and Murphy—SOMA Action, the progressive group behind the ban on Halloween in Maplewood and South Orange, has put out a ranked-choice ballot for members to define their endorsement. Leadership is squarely for Kim, possibly in retaliation for Governor Murphy's criticism of the Halloween ban, but they've received some backlash for playing politics and running this vote far, far too early in an effort to rig the result.

Kim did hire a highly qualified campaign manager with national connections recently. I expect this to go the distance.