NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Oryxslayer]

JFC, Menendez has an 8/74 favorable rating in PPP/VoteVets poll

https://votevets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/NewJerseyResults1.pdf

Ahh good, finally data to confirm a complete and total collapse.  Doesn't matter if he tries to go independent or if a third candidate from north jersey hops in. With those numbers, he's still finished.

Beyond the destructive approval numbers, we have Menendez down 22% to a hypothetical Republican and 3% to Christie, despite the Presidential topline being equivalent to 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, Bonnie Watson Coleman changed her statement and came out calling for his resignation today. Maybe she saw the polling numbers,  maybe she saw the senators, maybe she just had enough of his defiance.

This leaves only Jr. (Obviously) and Donald Payne as the only federal Democrats from New Jersey who have not called for a resignation. How Payne's gotten away I have no idea.

[Mr. Matt]

JFC, Menendez has an 8/74 favorable rating in PPP/VoteVets poll

https://votevets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/NewJerseyResults1.pdf

Only way he gets lower is if he's spotted on Sandy Hook (National Rec. Area) after the federal government shutdown. Favorables will go into negatives (raw number, not net) if it's Gunnison Beach and his gold bars are hanging out.

[Roll Roons]

I’m normally very skeptical of PPP, but I can totally believe this one.

[Landslide Lyndon]

JFC, Menendez has an 8/74 favorable rating in PPP/VoteVets poll

https://votevets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/NewJerseyResults1.pdf

He has officially entered Rod Blagojevich territory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sen Kim, I sensed it yesterday, Bob Menendez was gonna lose to Kean in 2006 anyways, he is at that point in 2006

[Pollster]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

When was the last time an incumbent had sub 10 approval ratings?

[Landslide Lyndon]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

Will Pallone be the Barbara Lee of this race?

[wbrocks67]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

Jesus christ, do Democrats want Menendez to win? Or are these people expecting him to resign? A primary race of Menendez-Pallone-Kim-Murphy sounds like a hot mess.

[Pollster]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

Will Pallone be the Barbara Lee of this race?

Pallone is far more substantial than Barbara Lee - he is a powerful committee chair (which means closer to big donors) and has run statewide before albeit unsuccessfully. And the nature of the states are very different - being 1 of 12 members of congress is a lot more significant than being 1 of 52, and NJ only has two media markets (one of which Pallone has been present in for decades) which likely gives him some name ID outside of his district.

[Pollster]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

Jesus christ, do Democrats want Menendez to win? Or are these people expecting him to resign? A primary race of Menendez-Pallone-Kim-Murphy sounds like a hot mess.

If that PPP poll with Menendez's approval rating among Dems at only 12% is accurate, he can still easily lose a crowded primary especially with no lines. And this isn't even considering the amount of his campaign funds that will be depleted by legal bills and a potential ethics committee investigation (which will be very high). Very likely he will lack the resources to even run a serious race in a very expensive state.

[Oryxslayer]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

Jesus christ, do Democrats want Menendez to win? Or are these people expecting him to resign? A primary race of Menendez-Pallone-Kim-Murphy sounds like a hot mess.

The good news is that Kim is still probably favored in a 5-way race. The backing of the South Jersey machines, and no other southern candidates, means probably overwhelming sweeps in the primary. With the rest of the field dividing up the northern and central Lines, his base in theory becomes the largest through plurality.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy's wife running just seems like one of those delusional moments for me. There's no justification for her running.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

Jesus christ, do Democrats want Menendez to win? Or are these people expecting him to resign? A primary race of Menendez-Pallone-Kim-Murphy sounds like a hot mess.

Menendez has a favorability of 8 I don’t think he can win a primary unless it’s splintered by 20 candidates

[kwabbit]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

Jesus christ, do Democrats want Menendez to win? Or are these people expecting him to resign? A primary race of Menendez-Pallone-Kim-Murphy sounds like a hot mess.

The good news is that Kim is still probably favored in a 5-way race. The backing of the South Jersey machines, and no other southern candidates, means probably overwhelming sweeps in the primary. With the rest of the field dividing up the northern and central Lines, his base in theory becomes the largest through plurality.

IIRC South Jersey without Monmouth is about 25% of a Democratic primary. Pallone would seem likely to get Middlesex + Monmouth. Kim would probably get Mercer but the aforementioned Princeton businessman could complicate things, as could Tammy Murphy, officially from Middletown, for Pallone in Monmouth. Menendez could very well get the Hudson line still, especially since he's at the nadir of his popularity at the moment and could recover somewhat.

I don't know how Tammy Murphy will be received. The optics aren't amazing with Murphy calling for Menendez to resign then his wife running and voters could be wary of both Phil and Tammy serving at the same time. I understand that Tammy is impressive in her own right, like Hillary and Bill, but Phil already forced himself into NJ politics by being rich (not that he's necessarily a bad governor because of it just that it's part of why he underperforms IMO), so his wife parachuting into a race is an extension of that which might not be welcomed.

[kwabbit]

Murphy's wife running just seems like one of those delusional moments for me. There's no justification for her running.

High-ranking party members live in a bubble. They've been encouraging her, having known her to be an intelligent and active advisor to the governor, but to 95% of the state she's probably just Phil Murphy's wife. She could be successful with limitless money, the support of the Governor, and the chance to be NJ's first woman senator, or she could flop completely.

[Ferguson97]

I like Tammy Murphy fine but I’d be really surprised if she ran.

[Senator Incitatus]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

I’d have liked to seen Upendra Chivukula take a run, but he could be a bit too old now.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1707390483192827968

[Pollster]

A lot more chatter around here in the last few days: Tammy Murphy all but certain to run, Pallone closer to yes than no, Van Drew about 50/50. I've also heard some things about a yet-unnamed "wealthy Indian-American businessman from the Princeton area" who is interested, unclear which party (if any) they are interested in running as. The Indian-American population in New Jersey is formidable and this candidacy would have to be taken seriously, especially if the candidate is a self-funder.

I’d have liked to seen Upendra Chivukula take a run, but he could be a bit too old now.

I love Upendra and have known him for years - great guy with an incredible disposition, which unfortunately made him way too nice/not mean enough to succeed in NJ politics during the period when he was up and coming. He really is a victim of timing - if he were just establishing himself now in the very beginning of the post-Norcross/post-machines era, he'd probably be much better positioned for success.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1707477765878870161

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1707477765878870161

Others were talking about how Murphy should/would probably appoint a Latino if Menendez resigns. That's what this seems to be, a group recognizing the same situation and pushing a name who seemingly would (at least initially) be a good placeholder.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1707477765878870161

Others were talking about how Murphy should/would probably appoint a Latino if Menendez resigns. That's what this seems to be, a group recognizing the same situation and pushing a name who seemingly would (at least initially) be a good placeholder.

I don’t think Murphy would appoint Salas if his wife is planning on running, because that’d mean Tammy Murphy won’t be the first female senator in NJ anymore.

[MargieCat]

I don't like this notion that a person needs to be replaced with a person of the same race or gender that they are replacing.