NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Oryxslayer]

Bob!

Updated Senator actions, in descending temporal order:

1. Fetterman
2. Sherrod Brown
3. Welch
4. Baldwin
5. Tester
6. Bob Casey
7. Elizabeth Warren
8. Rosen
9. Heinrich

There's a clear correlation between whose moving first. Also 5 of those came in the last few minutes, so something's happening.

I am now gonna update this list to include everything that happened during the day, including what was already posted.

10. Booker
11. Bennett
12. Klobuchar
13. Mark Kelly
14. Hassan
15. Markey
16. Gillibrand
17. Hirono
18. Warnock
19. Gary Peters

...

20. Sanders (new!)

20/47+3

Gillibrand and now Sanders go further calling for a Senatorial investigation if he doesn't resign.

We have passed the halfway point.

21. Chris Murphy
22. Blumenthal
23. Stabenow
24. Ossoff
25. Hickenlooper
26. Duckworth

We also have a "accusations are serious but not up for us to decide his fate caucus now"

Kaine, Manchin, CCM, Reed, Whitehouse.


What changed it seems is the Senate washing it's hands of debt negotiations with a finished product, and letting the House implode if it Implodes. So Menendez is no longer immediately needed.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/yeargain/status/1706378056741347530?s=61&t=J4ObZwLKKSzX8...
VoteVets looks to have endorsed Andy Kim. This seems to be a strong indicator that Sherrill isn’t running, given she is the only big name in NJ with a military background, and is fully on-board with a gubernatorial bid; and that Kim may be clearing the field.

Kim would genuinely be a good, solid choice. I don't think Menendez is gonna resign, so what I'm looking forward to is him either retiring or losing the nomination next year.

[Schiff for Senate]

So does Murphy go a placeholder route like Richard Codey? Does he pull a Ricketts and nominate himself?

I think he appoints a permanent successor if there's a consensus pick, like Sherrill or Kim.

I agree, but I don't think there is a consensus. Menendez's supporters will push for his son in a primary (he won't ever be appointed), then there's Kim, Sherrill, Malinowski, and whoever else the machines decide to push forwards.

I also doubt he could get away with appointing himself since the Lt. Gov is both the Secretary of state (since the Lt. Gov is ceremonial not empowered) and only held the office for 2 weeks.

Why would anyone (except maybe some communal Hispanics) still support Menendez over a non-corrupt Democrat? Genuine question. Democrat or Republican, you gotta agree that Menendez is a corrupt POS and a non-corrupt Democrat with the same political positions is definitely preferable to him or someone in his family.

Anyway Menendez Jr was just elected to Congress last year. One-term representative jumping for Senator is not something that commonly happens, and I doubt the circumstances under which his father ended his career are going to benefit Jr in any way. Any name recognition he gets thanks to his father's last name will at this point hinder rather than help him.

[Oryxslayer]

So does Murphy go a placeholder route like Richard Codey? Does he pull a Ricketts and nominate himself?

I think he appoints a permanent successor if there's a consensus pick, like Sherrill or Kim.

I agree, but I don't think there is a consensus. Menendez's supporters will push for his son in a primary (he won't ever be appointed), then there's Kim, Sherrill, Malinowski, and whoever else the machines decide to push forwards.

I also doubt he could get away with appointing himself since the Lt. Gov is both the Secretary of state (since the Lt. Gov is ceremonial not empowered) and only held the office for 2 weeks.

Why would anyone (except maybe some communal Hispanics) still support Menendez over a non-corrupt Democrat? Genuine question. Democrat or Republican, you gotta agree that Menendez is a corrupt POS and a non-corrupt Democrat with the same political positions is definitely preferable to him or someone in his family.

Anyway Menendez Jr was just elected to Congress last year. One-term representative jumping for Senator is not something that commonly happens, and I doubt the circumstances under which his father ended his career are going to benefit Jr in any way. Any name recognition he gets thanks to his father's last name will at this point hinder rather than help him.

Note that this post was written on Friday, when Menendez Sr. jumping ship and passing the torch was still a possibility. Now he still can attempt this, but all the condemnations will make that hard. Things move fast. That said, Menendez still has friends in and around Hudson county, even after all this. See Jr. getting elected in the first place and what Gottheimer is trying to do now after Kim got in. .

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Murphy had lost in 2021 I bet less than 5 senators would be calling for Menendez's resignation, if any.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Murphy had lost in 2021 I bet less than 5 senators would be calling for Menendez's resignation, if any.

Nah. Federal elections are different.

[TML]

If Murphy had lost in 2021 I bet less than 5 senators would be calling for Menendez's resignation, if any.

Nah. Federal elections are different.

The point being made with that post is that Democrats would probably not be rushing to call for Menendez's head if the incumbent NJ governor is a Republican, as was the case during Menendez's previous indictment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Murphy had lost in 2021 I bet less than 5 senators would be calling for Menendez's resignation, if any.

Nah. Federal elections are different.

The point being made with that post is that Democrats would probably not be rushing to call for Menendez's head if the incumbent NJ governor is a Republican, as was the case during Menendez's previous indictment.

Ah, right. Perhaps. But the seat would only have a GOP appointee until a special election is scheduled which probably wouldn't be longer than a year. Democrats would still have the majority with Harris' vote anyway.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting, an about face but happy to see it

https://twitter.com/SenatorDurbin/status/1707032511405015368

[Sir Mohamed]

Will Biden weigh in as well? Although it was a different story, he called for Cuomo's resignation before.

[Oryxslayer]

Bob!

Updated Senator actions, in descending temporal order:

1. Fetterman
2. Sherrod Brown
3. Welch
4. Baldwin
5. Tester
6. Bob Casey
7. Elizabeth Warren
8. Rosen
9. Heinrich

There's a clear correlation between whose moving first. Also 5 of those came in the last few minutes, so something's happening.

I am now gonna update this list to include everything that happened during the day, including what was already posted.

10. Booker
11. Bennett
12. Klobuchar
13. Mark Kelly
14. Hassan
15. Markey
16. Gillibrand
17. Hirono
18. Warnock
19. Gary Peters

...

20. Sanders (new!)

20/47+3

Gillibrand and now Sanders go further calling for a Senatorial investigation if he doesn't resign.

We have passed the halfway point.

21. Chris Murphy
22. Blumenthal
23. Stabenow
24. Ossoff
25. Hickenlooper
26. Duckworth

We also have a "accusations are serious but not up for us to decide his fate caucus now"

Kaine, Manchin, CCM, Reed, Whitehouse.

27. Durbin
28. Van Hollen
29. Murray (who joins the investigation group as well)
30. Cantwell

That is 36/51, including Menendez, Dem-alligned Senators or their offices who have said something formal about him. Still Missing: both senators from California, Oregon, and Delaware; Sinema (who you would think would have moved fast given her need for Indie voters), Schatz, King, Cardin, Tina Smith, Shaheen, Ben Ray Luján, Warner, and of course Schumer.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Murphy wouldn’t be terrible, but I still prefer Kim by a mile.

How would you rate Murphy’s chances in a primary with Kim?

Eh, I’m not sure. I guess initially I’ll say Murphy? I don’t know too much about NJ politics but I’d imagine that the First Lady of the state will have more name recognition than a congressman. But Kim being an actual elected politician who has won tough races is more battle tested and would probably run a better campaign. I guess we will see.

[President Johnson]

Would Murphy appoint a placeholder or, unless he himself wants to run, someone with the intent to run in a special election? He could appoint Kim right away. At least theoretically.

[Atlas Force]

Would Murphy appoint a placeholder or, unless he himself wants to run, someone with the intent to run in a special election? He could appoint Kim right away. At least theoretically.

Most likely a placeholder, and probably one who's Latino:

If Menendez did step down, who would Murphy appoint?

Since Menendez is NJ’s first Latino Senator, I’d imagine there’s gonna be a lot of pressure on Murphy to appoint a Latino to his seat.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/politicongress/status/1707094485442711945

[Holmes]

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/politicongress/status/1707094485442711945

He'll just plead his case and probably get angry at the ones who've called on him to resign.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That is 36/51, including Menendez, Dem-alligned Senators or their offices who have said something formal about him. Still Missing: both senators from California, Oregon, and Delaware; Sinema (who you would think would have moved fast given her need for Indie voters), Schatz, King, Cardin, Tina Smith, Shaheen, Ben Ray Luján, Warner, and of course Schumer.

I guess we can exempt Feinstein from that list. She probably has no clue what's going on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nj IS SAFE D EVEN IN 2004 WE WON NJ BY 6

[smoltchanov]

Nj IS SAFE D EVEN IN 2004 WE WON NJ BY 6

Clifford Case would win NJ easily. Alas - Republicans doesn't have Clifford Cases anymore)))))

[wbrocks67]

If Menendez doesn't intend to resign today in his speech to Dems, then I'm just gonna need Schumer to finally come out and call for it. Enough of this charade.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

If Menendez doesn't intend to resign today in his speech to Dems, then I'm just gonna need Schumer to finally come out and call for it. Enough of this charade.

What if Menendez gets into the closed door meeting and is just like "are you guys mad at me"

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If Menendez doesn't intend to resign today in his speech to Dems, then I'm just gonna need Schumer to finally come out and call for it. Enough of this charade.

What if Menendez gets into the closed door meeting and is just like "are you guys mad at me"

"Why are you guys so mean?"

"Bob, it's not that.  It's just-- "

"--no! I LITERALLY try SO hard to be a good person!"

(Taking me back to my sorority days )

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

If Menendez doesn't intend to resign today in his speech to Dems, then I'm just gonna need Schumer to finally come out and call for it. Enough of this charade.

What if Menendez gets into the closed door meeting and is just like "are you guys mad at me"

"Why are you guys so mean?"

"Bob, it's not that.  It's just-- "

"--no! I LITERALLY try SO hard to be a good person!"

(Taking me back to my sorority days )

Smeared makeup and all. I imagine it will look something like this:

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If Menendez doesn't intend to resign today in his speech to Dems, then I'm just gonna need Schumer to finally come out and call for it. Enough of this charade.

What if Menendez gets into the closed door meeting and is just like "are you guys mad at me"

"Why are you guys so mean?"

"Bob, it's not that.  It's just-- "

"--no! I LITERALLY try SO hard to be a good person!"

(Taking me back to my sorority days )

Smeared makeup and all. I imagine it will look something like this:

SNIPPY-SNIP

I was envisioning that little kid cry where you can't catch your breath

[wbrocks67]

JFC, Menendez has an 8/74 favorable rating in PPP/VoteVets poll

https://votevets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/NewJerseyResults1.pdf