NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

[Oryxslayer]

Swalwell, Spanberger, and Slotkin called for menendez to resign when presented with the question this afternoon.


Menendez has scheduled a Monday press conference (to probably plant his feet even harder).

[Tekken_Guy]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

He's a liability to the Dems and they don't want to do anything to make their job easier. It's as petty as it gets, but hard to get around.

[LabourJersey]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

He's an obvious liability to the Democratic party right now, and he adds to their narrative of false equivalence, i.e. "the Left is obsessed with Trump but this Dem is a lying corrupt foreign agent!" Plus his replacement may be a rising Democratic star in potentially Kim or Sherrill.

They don't get much from Menendez being around, but the GOP has no incentive to getting rid of him.

[wbrocks67]

Disappointing to see people like Durbin and Gregory Meeks of NY dance around it and not explicity call for resignation.

Democrats cannot hold the moral high ground with Trump if they let something like this go. Of course, Trump's is way more serious than Menendez, but the point stands. And with Menendez it's even more egregious because he was corrupt back in 2018 too.

[Tekken_Guy]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

He's an obvious liability to the Democratic party right now, and he adds to their narrative of false equivalence, i.e. "the Left is obsessed with Trump but this Dem is a lying corrupt foreign agent!" Plus his replacement may be a rising Democratic star in potentially Kim or Sherrill.

They don't get much from Menendez being around, but the GOP has no incentive to getting rid of him.

Why do you believe Sherrill is going to run? With Kim already in the race she has no incentive to run and split the anti-Menendez vote, and could easily focus on governor in 2025.

[LabourJersey]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

He's an obvious liability to the Democratic party right now, and he adds to their narrative of false equivalence, i.e. "the Left is obsessed with Trump but this Dem is a lying corrupt foreign agent!" Plus his replacement may be a rising Democratic star in potentially Kim or Sherrill.

They don't get much from Menendez being around, but the GOP has no incentive to getting rid of him.

Why do you believe Sherrill is going to run? With Kim already in the race she has no incentive to run and split the anti-Menendez vote, and could easily focus on governor in 2025.

I don't think she'll run at this point, but in a world where Menendez resigns there is a chance that Sherill could be appointed. But anyway I just threw her name out as an example of the fact that Menendez's successor may be a rising Dem star, and that's part of a calculus for the GOP as to why they'd prefer Menendez to stay

[Tekken_Guy]

It's officially "over" if/when Biden tells Menendez to resign, right? Which he should do. Menendez is not going to be a senator in 2025 regardless but if he's isolated by the Senate Dems, stripped of committee assignments, and staff members leave en masse, then there's really no point in staying except using his seat as leverage, as has been mentioned.

He can't be stripped of committee assignments the same reason Sinema can't.

By God the Senate is stupid. It shouldn't be that hard to find 67 expulsion votes though, I'd think?

It's not that it's not allowed, it's that it would require a new organizing resolution that the Republicans would filibuster. But even if they couldn't....the Democratic caucus has 51 votes, of which Sinema and Menendez are two of those.

Is there any reason to believe Republicans would choose to keep Menendez around?

He's an obvious liability to the Democratic party right now, and he adds to their narrative of false equivalence, i.e. "the Left is obsessed with Trump but this Dem is a lying corrupt foreign agent!" Plus his replacement may be a rising Democratic star in potentially Kim or Sherrill.

They don't get much from Menendez being around, but the GOP has no incentive to getting rid of him.

Why do you believe Sherrill is going to run? With Kim already in the race she has no incentive to run and split the anti-Menendez vote, and could easily focus on governor in 2025.

I don't think she'll run at this point, but in a world where Menendez resigns there is a chance that Sherill could be appointed. But anyway I just threw her name out as an example of the fact that Menendez's successor may be a rising Dem star, and that's part of a calculus for the GOP as to why they'd prefer Menendez to stay

I doubt Murphy will appoint Sherrill unless she actually was planning on running for that seat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Christie running would be a lot like that time Jim Gilmore ran for Senate.

Christie would probably lose to Menendez.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1706048815466172559?t=gwv87EvokxSCvqg6LY_...

Solidarity!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/NewsWire_US/status/1706048815466172559?t=gwv87EvokxSCvqg6LY_...

Solidarity!

At least he is consistent, I guess.

[brucejoel99]

Christie running would be a lot like that time Jim Gilmore ran for Senate.

Christie would probably lose to Menendez.

https://twitter.com/MorrisCountyDad/status/1706104297539137716

[Comrade Funk]

Disappointing to see people like Durbin and Gregory Meeks of NY dance around it and not explicity call for resignation.

Why are you surprised? They are the rot infecting the Democratic Party. Corrupt, old, and do-nothing.

[Atlas Force]

Disappointing to see people like Durbin and Gregory Meeks of NY dance around it and not explicity call for resignation.

Lol

Meeks is better than Pelosi, politically. Yes, he may have some corruption and ethical issues, but he is aggressive and is a good TV debater.

Pelosi is 78 years old, slurs her speech sometimes. She should retire and be the Chair Emerita of the CA Democratic Party.

Speaker Meeks can give Trump hell in January, plus he would be a better alternative as a black speaker than Clyburn, who has been around for a long time, despite the fact that he is a cultural and social icon like John Lewis.

https://nypost.com/2012/12/23/no-victory-for-greg-meeks/

Let Meeks head the Democrats for two years. His base is crucial for Democrats (middle class black people in Queens-Nassau, and if the GOP did not bow to Trumpism they could have run neck and neck with middle class blacks.)

[Oryxslayer]

And as predicted,  the press conference today is all defiance and Baghdad Bob style obfuscation. Right now he remains committed to the reelection attempt that will only result in embarrassment and pathetic moments cause of how far he fell.

Several of such moments may already be happening. The state party has stated they will kick him from their official candidate lists if he runs again. In practice this is what the ballot would look like in that scenario everywhere except maybe Hudson.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1706049876889329943?t=E8vFYW8ffI8p4e7GQm8R...

A second embarrassment to potentially come is if his son loses a primary challenge as well. Retirement in some capacity would put distance between the two.  But Menendez Sr imploding during a campaign would tie the sins of the father to the son via the ballot, even if the case isn't expanded to include Jr.

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1706326587631603843?t=SJwL3okhARN8RhZNBV5hc...

Additional searches today have suggested Speaker McCarthy,  and Representatives Moulton, Casten, Summer Lee, and Porter have also called for resignations.

One has to imagine,  or at least hope, there's a poll in the field right now that will reveal just how over it is for Menendez. Right now it's just vibes, which are not great indicators  

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

The Menendez dynasty is crumbling before our eyes.

[Ferguson97]

Embarrassing press conference. Just resign and avoid the embarrassment of losing the primary, Bobby.

[Pollster]

I will post more in the near future about how brillliantly Andy Kim has maneuvered this behind the scenes (I’m close with a lot of NJ Dems and have worked with figures in the state for years) but will just say for now that Phil Murphy, regardless of what you think of his policy record as governor, has done such a brilliant job liberating this state party from George Norcross, who is widely hated by virtually everybody and only entertained by most because they’ve had to for so long. The job is not done yet obviously (even Murphy has had to be deferential at points) but at this point, especially given the last few days, the writing is on the wall.

[Mr. Matt]

...Phil Murphy, regardless of what you think of his policy record as governor, has done such a brilliant job liberating this state party from George Norcross, who is widely hated by virtually everybody and only entertained by most because they’ve had to for so long.

I would just say the "everybody" would be the voters and non-pols, especially those outside of South Jersey, even with your second stanza in the sentence. A lot of the North & Central Jersey pols and chairs will still try to cozy up to his interests (e.g. working out who are the legislature majority leaders) but agreed his influence is starting to fall in the state nowadays too.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1706294302177988851

[jman123]

What are menendez's chances if he were to mount an off the line bid in the primary vs Andy Kim , with state party institutional support

[Oryxslayer]

What are menendez's chances if he were to mount an off the line bid in the primary vs Andy Kim , with state party institutional support

1 v 1 vs Kim, who would have every Line and party support but maybe 2? Probably 0%. Reminder that Menendez had every Line and full support in 2018 vs a F-tier opponent, and only won by 62-38, losing areas where the machine is weakest. Without the party he's toast. Especially since it seems Kim cut some sort of deal for South Jersey machine support, so he'll be getting absurd margins from the region.

Though like I said, I would love to see a poll confirming the complete collapse. As some have speculated, if the collapse it total, then there is certainly room for North Jersey to put up their own candidate and not have any fear of Menendez winning.

[jman123]

What are menendez's chances if he were to mount an off the line bid in the primary vs Andy Kim , with state party institutional support

1 v 1 vs Kim, who would have every Line and party support but maybe 2? Probably 0%. Reminder that Menendez had every Line and full support in 2018 vs a F-tier opponent, and only won by 62-38, losing areas where the machine is weakest. Without the party he's toast. Especially since it seems Kim cut some sort of deal for South Jersey machine support, so he'll be getting absurd margins from the region.

Though like I said, I would love to see a poll confirming the complete collapse. As some have speculated, if the collapse it total, then there is certainly room for North Jersey to put up their own candidate and not have any fear of Menendez winning.

So basically, that 2018 underperformance in primary despite institutional support,basically meant he is beatable without party support? In other words... Dems smell blood and are now pouncing

[kwabbit]

What are menendez's chances if he were to mount an off the line bid in the primary vs Andy Kim , with state party institutional support

1 v 1 vs Kim, who would have every Line and party support but maybe 2? Probably 0%. Reminder that Menendez had every Line and full support in 2018 vs a F-tier opponent, and only won by 62-38, losing areas where the machine is weakest. Without the party he's toast. Especially since it seems Kim cut some sort of deal for South Jersey machine support, so he'll be getting absurd margins from the region.

Though like I said, I would love to see a poll confirming the complete collapse. As some have speculated, if the collapse it total, then there is certainly room for North Jersey to put up their own candidate and not have any fear of Menendez winning.

So basically, that 2018 underperformance in primary despite institutional support,basically meant he is beatable without party support? In other words... Dems smell blood and are now pouncing

There’s a reason it’s almost impossible for an incumbent to lose in NJ. The party apparatus can basically guarantee a candidate a victory and the fact that Menendez didn’t blow out McCormick in 2018 is a sign that he could’ve a lost without the county line even against a total rando. A prominent Democrat would’ve beaten him in all likelihood but it’s not fun to run against Menendez so no one stepped up.