NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Senator Incitatus]

This next Senate class will have really taken out the trash between losing Feinstein, Manchin, Menendez, and Sinema.

That's not to say thst we should get too ahead of ourselves and celebrate yet, we need to hold every seat outside if West Virginia next year to really get the most out of it-and that will be easier said than done.

Left out Carper and Cardin for some reason.

Carper was a product of circumstance, i.e., the Delaware corporate-legal culture, with little reason to think LBR will be meaningful different except in appearance (unless you mean his domestic violence incident). She was quite literally a Carper confidant and advisor.

Not sure what the issue with Cardin is.

[Sirius_]

Dems should and probably will put their resources into Kim. There's no reason to risk losing a seat in New Jersey of all places.

[Minnesota Mike]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose.  

[Atlas Force]

I’m interested to see how all this affects Menendez’s son, Rob. I don’t think Democrats will turn to Rob to be a replacement candidate for his father’s Senate seat, because they’re related. So I think Rob just runs for re-election to the House. But, will Rob get a primary challenger?

There’s a non-zero chance Rob won’t even be a congressman for much longer depending on how tied to his dad’s legal troubles he ends up getting.

[Senator Incitatus]

Dems should and probably will put their resources into Kim. There's no reason to risk losing a seat in New Jersey of all places.

Menendez without any party support (outside Hudson) could probably even lose a three- or four-way race. I wouldn't be shocked if another serious candidate jumps in; in fact, I'll be surprised if you don't have at least one State Senator or equivalent challenger with one or two counties behind them enter.

I’m interested to see how all this affects Menendez’s son, Rob. I don’t think Democrats will turn to Rob to be a replacement candidate for his father’s Senate seat, because they’re related. So I think Rob just runs for re-election to the House. But, will Rob get a primary challenger?

There’s a non-zero chance Rob won’t even be a congressman for much longer depending on how tied to his dad’s legal troubles he ends up getting.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/menendezs-legal-troubles-could-have-political-ramifications-for-his-son/

tl;dr: Not implicated at all. (The wife in question is the Senator's second whom he married only three years ago, not Rob's mother.)

But as JMT suggests, Rob holds his seat purely by grant of his father and if his father really does go belly up, the Hudson machine could move on to someone else. Preserving his son's primary chances is probably part of the Senator's calculation in whether or not to run. But I think it's unlikely; the Menendez support in Hudson runs deep and is somewhat genuine. He'll face a gadfly challenger who will have real momentum but ultimately fizzle out.

[Oryxslayer]

Kim seemed like the most likely to consolidate party-wide support. If Menendez stays in, I think Kim wins. If not, this is the start of a real race. Very smart move by him to announce quickly.

edit: This would also be a fascinating rise for someone who was written off as DOA until redistricting. I still think more likely at this point that Menendez does ultimately bow out and we have a real fight on our hands, but Kim would be both my preferred candidate (excepting fringe protest votes) and I think the most likely to win.

Yes this is what I began to suspect after he preempted the Governor's timed and coordinated response.  With Menendez having effectively lost the biggest Northern Lines yesterday, and now the Southern Lines thanks to Norcross today and Kim's incumbency, he has lost a hypothetical primary. Kim therefore has every incentive to move as fast as possible and become the locus for opposition and therefore the eventual consensus choice. Striking while the iron is hot ideally boxes out rivals to ensure a 1 v 1 victory.

However, if Menendez resigns soon, like the NJDP wants, this will just be the first of many as you say. It though probably forces Murphy to pick a placeholder candidate, unless he actually wants Kim.

[wesmoorenerd]

WE'RE SO BACK

Kim is easily the best member of the NJ delegation and he would make for an outstanding Senator. Of course, his biggest threat isn't Menendez -- who he would probably crush in a one-on-one race at this point -- but rather a challenge from Norcross, Gottheimer, or Sherrill, any of whom would (unfortunately) present a serious threat. Praying for Andy!

[Senator Incitatus]

WE'RE SO BACK

Kim is easily the best member of the NJ delegation and he would make for an outstanding Senator. Of course, his biggest threat isn't Menendez -- who he would probably crush in a one-on-one race at this point -- but rather a challenge from Norcross, Gottheimer, or Sherrill, any of whom would (unfortunately) present a serious threat. Praying for Andy!

I think you're going to be a little disappointed when I tell you the only real way for Kim to win a multi-candidate race is to join forces with Norcross and become the de facto and de jure South Jersey candidate. (And I don't think Norcross would run himself, but rather put a loyalist into the race like Nilsa Cruz-Perez.)

In fact, Norcross's public statement probably clinched Kim's decision to announce—though I'm not suggesting they coordinated. It would purely be a marriage of convenience.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who do we think is in contention for Kim’s (now pretty safely Democratic) house seat?

[Roll Roons]

Who do we think is in contention for Kim’s (now pretty safely Democratic) house seat?

State Sen. Troy Singleton is the first name that comes to mind for me.

[Atlas Force]

Who do we think is in contention for Kim’s (now pretty safely Democratic) house seat?

Inb4 BRTD suggests some emo musician from the area

[Senator Incitatus]

Who do we think is in contention for Kim’s (now pretty safely Democratic) house seat?

Troy Singleton is probably the strongest contender as the highest-ranking Burlington County incumbent. He'd be able to win black votes in Hamilton and Lawrence as well.

Wayne DeAngelo could easily be the Mercer candidate with appeal to conservative Democrats in the other counties but is probably too comfortable in the legislature to run and would be an underdog against any Burlington-backed candidate based on numbers alone. Hamilton mayor Jeff Martin could also serve that role, though he's in a tough re-election fight.

Beyond that, you're looking at the parachuting celebrities, activist base and local electeds in Burlington. Andrea Katz, the Chesterfield party chair and current candidate for Assembly, is a name I'll throw out there. As far as parachuting celebrities, the party tried to get Ron Jaworski to run for Senate this year, and Carl Lewis ran way back but got scrapped because of signature disqualification.

I really don't know of any Democrats from the Monmouth portion of this district; that person would likely be from far-off Freehold and would struggle to get support in the rest of the district.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose.  

I doubt it’s any kind of bold. I would bet money that Kim was in talks with various party leaders and other NJ pols before jumping in. I doubt in a state like NJ he just went in guns blazing

[Sestak]

Unless I'm missing something, Kim would be the first Senator from South Jersey since Robert Hendrickson, whose one term ended in 1955.

[Senator Incitatus]

Unless I'm missing something, Kim would be the first Senator from South Jersey since Robert Hendrickson, whose one term ended in 1955.

This is correct. There hasn't even been a nominee from further south than Mercer in that time. The last one for this seat, I believe, was George Brunner in 1946.

[kwabbit]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose.  

That’s not as much of a factor in NJ. If other county bosses in North Jersey want another candidate, Kim being in won’t deter them. They can still guarantee their candidate the lion’s share of support in their county.

However, Kim probably launched his campaign with Burlington, Mercer, and perhaps South Jersey support. Plans were made as soon as Menendez started being investigated again and especially after the gravity of the situation was leaked a few weeks ago. He wouldn’t have launched if he didn’t know he had substantial party backing already, although again it’s important to note that the party as a whole in the state is not on the same page necessarily.

[Zedonathin2020]

Statement from Rep. Watson Coleman

https://twitter.com/repbonnie/status/1705662275388833797?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E...

[Tekken_Guy]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose.  

That’s not as much of a factor in NJ. If other county bosses in North Jersey want another candidate, Kim being in won’t deter them. They can still guarantee their candidate the lion’s share of support in their county.

However, Kim probably launched his campaign with Burlington, Mercer, and perhaps South Jersey support. Plans were made as soon as Menendez started being investigated again and especially after the gravity of the situation was leaked a few weeks ago. He wouldn’t have launched if he didn’t know he had substantial party backing already, although again it’s important to note that the party as a whole in the state is not on the same page necessarily.

Perhaps a deal was made with Sherrill to stay out in exchange for key support for the latter in the governor’s race.

[Oryxslayer]

Who do we think is in contention for Kim’s (now pretty safely Democratic) house seat?

Troy Singleton is probably the strongest contender as the highest-ranking Burlington County incumbent. He'd be able to win black votes in Hamilton and Lawrence as well.

Wayne DeAngelo could easily be the Mercer candidate with appeal to conservative Democrats in the other counties but is probably too comfortable in the legislature to run and would be an underdog against any Burlington-backed candidate based on numbers alone. Hamilton mayor Jeff Martin could also serve that role, though he's in a tough re-election fight.

Beyond that, you're looking at the parachuting celebrities, activist base and local electeds in Burlington. Andrea Katz, the Chesterfield party chair and current candidate for Assembly, is a name I'll throw out there. As far as parachuting celebrities, the party tried to get Ron Jaworski to run for Senate this year, and Carl Lewis ran way back but got scrapped because of signature disqualification.

I really don't know of any Democrats from the Monmouth portion of this district; that person would likely be from far-off Freehold and would struggle to get support in the rest of the district.

This article explores who might go for a open seat. Singleton and DeAngelo are mentioned,  as well as Jeff Martin.

However,  top of the list and with the picture on the header is Majority Whip Carol Murphy. I'm surprised you forgot her, especially since the author has a inside tip she is already gearing up despite the November elections. If the tip is correct,  it might very well thread together neatly everything that has happened today. The backroom timeline may have been Kim wanted to ensure Norcross support before he got fully in. And a way to do that is put a south jersey machine ally in line to succeed him. And that trade convinces Norcross to move this morning.

A few other Mercer names are thrown out: County Chair and East Windsor mayor Janice Mironov, and Marlboro's Jon Hornick.

Republican names listed include Bob Healey, Burlington County GOP chairman Sean Earlen, and Assemblymembers Brandon Umba  and Vicky Flynn. But all probably will pass on what's should be a loss, especially if it's Kim's name right above them.

[Senator Incitatus]

I don't know too much about Murphy, but I don't see how she'd beat Singleton. If she's seriously running, he probably just isn't.

[kwabbit]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose.  

That’s not as much of a factor in NJ. If other county bosses in North Jersey want another candidate, Kim being in won’t deter them. They can still guarantee their candidate the lion’s share of support in their county.

However, Kim probably launched his campaign with Burlington, Mercer, and perhaps South Jersey support. Plans were made as soon as Menendez started being investigated again and especially after the gravity of the situation was leaked a few weeks ago. He wouldn’t have launched if he didn’t know he had substantial party backing already, although again it’s important to note that the party as a whole in the state is not on the same page necessarily.

Perhaps a deal was made with Sherrill to stay out in exchange for key support for the latter in the governor’s race.

Yeah, maybe Sherrill bowed out, but Gottheimer might come in instead. Sherrill is the strongest potential North Jersey candidate IMO, but lesser candidates could run from any of the larger North Jersey counties and win just since their base would be so much bigger. It reminds me of California where even though Porter got the head start the opportunity to jump at a promotion in a state with so many Democratic officeholders and so few promotions was too good to give up.

[JMT]

Ok, so with Kim running for Senate, I think it’s likely the party unites around him. I thought Mikie Sherrill would be the candidate, but now my guess is she’s aiming for Governor with Kim running for Senate. Biggest question is what Gottheimer does.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Senator Andy Kim, endorsed!

Good for him too, getting the earliest jump at this probably clears the primary field for him.

[Senator Incitatus]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose. 

That’s not as much of a factor in NJ. If other county bosses in North Jersey want another candidate, Kim being in won’t deter them. They can still guarantee their candidate the lion’s share of support in their county.

However, Kim probably launched his campaign with Burlington, Mercer, and perhaps South Jersey support. Plans were made as soon as Menendez started being investigated again and especially after the gravity of the situation was leaked a few weeks ago. He wouldn’t have launched if he didn’t know he had substantial party backing already, although again it’s important to note that the party as a whole in the state is not on the same page necessarily.

Perhaps a deal was made with Sherrill to stay out in exchange for key support for the latter in the governor’s race.

Yeah, maybe Sherrill bowed out, but Gottheimer might come in instead. Sherrill is the strongest potential North Jersey candidate IMO, but lesser candidates could run from any of the larger North Jersey counties and win just since their base would be so much bigger. It reminds me of California where even though Porter got the head start the opportunity to jump at a promotion in a state with so many Democratic officeholders and so few promotions was too good to give up.

Yeah; I think anyone assuming Kim will be the last candidate in doesn't know Jersey. The state is very party-coordinated, but at the county, not the state level. This is very far from over (as much as I like Kim). And your point about so few promotions (since this is one state with only three elected offices and very low turnover to boot) rings very true.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bold move by Kim that has a high likelihood of working. Head to head he would be a big favorite over Menendez, by getting in first he has a chance of freezing out other challengers. You snooze you lose. 

That’s not as much of a factor in NJ. If other county bosses in North Jersey want another candidate, Kim being in won’t deter them. They can still guarantee their candidate the lion’s share of support in their county.

However, Kim probably launched his campaign with Burlington, Mercer, and perhaps South Jersey support. Plans were made as soon as Menendez started being investigated again and especially after the gravity of the situation was leaked a few weeks ago. He wouldn’t have launched if he didn’t know he had substantial party backing already, although again it’s important to note that the party as a whole in the state is not on the same page necessarily.

Perhaps a deal was made with Sherrill to stay out in exchange for key support for the latter in the governor’s race.

Yeah, maybe Sherrill bowed out, but Gottheimer might come in instead. Sherrill is the strongest potential North Jersey candidate IMO, but lesser candidates could run from any of the larger North Jersey counties and win just since their base would be so much bigger. It reminds me of California where even though Porter got the head start the opportunity to jump at a promotion in a state with so many Democratic officeholders and so few promotions was too good to give up.

Yeah; I think anyone assuming Kim will be the last candidate in doesn't know Jersey. The state is very party-coordinated, but at the county, not the state level. This is very far from over (as much as I like Kim). And your point about so few promotions (since this is one state with only three elected offices and very low turnover to boot) rings very true.

I think that a lot of the big guns are waiting for the gubernatorial race in ‘25.