California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Roll Roons]

So what's up with Santa Clara county? Why would Schiff's vote share be 60% lower in the Special compared to the Full term? That seems like a pretty drastic difference.

Probably a tabulation error.

A pretty blatant tabulation error going on for days without being corrected would be quite embarassing.

What? California is awful at running elections? Who could ever guess such a thing?

[2016]

Per CA SoS Website Schiffs' lead for the Full Term has been cut to about 29,000

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-senate

Unless L.A. County has some giant basket of Schiff Vote out there is a reasonable chance Garvey not only beats Schiff in the Special Primary but also in the Regular Open Primary.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)

Not much update today since it was the weekend; should get bigger updates again starting back tonight

[Agafin]

Per CA SoS Website Schiffs' lead for the Full Term has been cut to about 29,000

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-senate

Unless L.A. County has some giant basket of Schiff Vote out there is a reasonable chance Garvey not only beats Schiff in the Special Primary but also in the Regular Open Primary.

Hmmm this is interesting, so the late vote is bluer but more anti-Schiff? 

[wbrocks67]

Per CA SoS Website Schiffs' lead for the Full Term has been cut to about 29,000

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-senate

Unless L.A. County has some giant basket of Schiff Vote out there is a reasonable chance Garvey not only beats Schiff in the Special Primary but also in the Regular Open Primary.

Hmmm this is interesting, so the late vote is bluer but more anti-Schiff? 

Yeah the later vote has definitely been a bit more pro-Porter and pro-Lee

[kwabbit]

Per CA SoS Website Schiffs' lead for the Full Term has been cut to about 29,000

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-senate

Unless L.A. County has some giant basket of Schiff Vote out there is a reasonable chance Garvey not only beats Schiff in the Special Primary but also in the Regular Open Primary.

Hmmm this is interesting, so the late vote is bluer but more anti-Schiff? 

The late vote should be roughly equal or slightly redder than the statewide margin. That's what it was like 2022. It seems like counting is going even slower now though.

Overall, Schiff should continue dropping and Garvey will probably stay put. Porter and Lee will continue to rise because late ballots are younger and less establishment than earlier ballots.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)

Blue shift continues as of now.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Garvey is now in 1st place

[Roll Roons]

Garvey is now in 1st place

Hot damn. Since the top two system was instituted, has there ever been a statewide election where a Republican placed first?

[kwabbit]

Garvey is now in 1st place

Hot damn. Since the top two system was instituted, has there ever been a statewide election where a Republican placed first?

Lanhee Chen received 37% in the primary as the sole R candidate for state controller in 2022. He got 44% in the general, so he's the high water mark for the CA GOP as of late (excluding Poizner since he was an independent and the election was less polarized).

[2016]

Garvey is now in 1st place

Hot damn. Since the top two system was instituted, has there ever been a statewide election where a Republican placed first?

Since the Top 2 Primary System was implemented a Republican Candidate either running for Senate or Governor has never finished at the Top.

Lanhee Chen finished first in a Race for State Controller in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
85% in: D+19.5 (59.0-39.5)  / special: D+20.4 (60.2-39.8 )

And we're back to a small red shift!

[Minnesota Mike]

It was the right strategic thing to do and Schiff is going to be the next senator  from CA but you have to wonder if deep down Schiff wishes he had spent a few million less boosting the campaign of Garvey. Better safe than sorry I guess.

[kwabbit]

It was the right strategic thing to do and Schiff is going to be the next senator  from CA but you have to wonder if deep down Schiff wishes he had spent a few million less boosting the campaign of Garvey. Better safe than sorry I guess.

Schiff ought to be satisfied. His performance was more of a surprise than Garvey's. I don't think many people though he would be getting 55% of the Democratic vote. His spending, both to boost himself and boost Garvey over Porter by so much, gave him a clear mandate to be the next senator. Having such a stark result is good for unity and quiets the left-wing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was the right strategic thing to do and Schiff is going to be the next senator  from CA but you have to wonder if deep down Schiff wishes he had spent a few million less boosting the campaign of Garvey. Better safe than sorry I guess.

No he didn't Porter split the D vote that's why Schiff didn't do that well more people took D not R ballots in CA

White females voted overwhelming for Katie Porter, I knew that a vote for Porter would be a vote for Garvey so I didn't vote for Porter, her career is over, it's irony that she was the heavy fav to win the seat after Feinstein died and went to 3rd place. She embarrassed herself

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Garvey is now in 1st place

Hot damn. Since the top two system was instituted, has there ever been a statewide election where a Republican placed first?

The 2014 Controller election almost had the Republicans shut out the Democrats. They ended up with 1st and 4th place. The 4th place candidate was only 0.7 points behind 2nd place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter Porter split the vote with Schiff, Schiff is gonna win 5/7 pts with Porter voters

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
85% in: D+19.5 (59.0-39.5)  / special: D+20.4 (60.2-39.8 )
89% in: D+20.6 (59.5-38.9)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)

Back to a blue shift.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The narrative is that Garvey win but he only won as I stated before, on a split vote

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
85% in: D+19.5 (59.0-39.5)  / special: D+20.4 (60.2-39.8 )
89% in: D+20.6 (59.5-38.9)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
92% in: D+20.2 (59.3-39.1)  / special: D+21.0 (60.5-39.5)

Red shift in regular, but blue shift in special.

[2016]

Little under 15,000 seperate Schiff and Garvey now.

CNN has finally caught up with the Vote Count and is showing the same figures as the CA SoS Webpage

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/california

[President Johnson]

Did Porter and Lee concede already or congretulate Schiff? I couldn't find anything.

[wbrocks67]

Did Porter and Lee concede already or congretulate Schiff? I couldn't find anything.

Not sure if they did publicly (which is weird) but Schiff confirmed in one of his interviews last week that they did reach out to him privately

[wbrocks67]

47% in: D+16.3 (57.3-41.0)
53% in: D+16.7 (57.5-40.8 )
58% in: D+17.5 (57.9-40.4)
68% in: D+19.1 (58.7-39.6)
72% in: D+19.0 (58.7-39.7)  / special: D+19.6 (59.8-40.2)
73% in: D+19.2 (58.8-39.6)  / special: D+19.8 (59.9-40.1)
76% in: D+20.0 (59.2-39.2)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
85% in: D+19.5 (59.0-39.5)  / special: D+20.4 (60.2-39.8 )
89% in: D+20.6 (59.5-38.9)  / special: D+20.8 (60.4-39.6)
92% in: D+20.2 (59.3-39.1)  / special: D+21.0 (60.5-39.5)
>95% in: D+20.4 (59.4-39.0)  / special: D+21.0 (60.5-39.5)

Still a little left to count, but looks like we ended up with about a ~4% blue shift from election night, and while there were a few minor backslides, it was generally a blue shift throughout (7 days got bluer, only 3 days got redder)

[brucejoel99]

Did Porter and Lee concede already or congretulate Schiff? I couldn't find anything.

Not sure if they did publicly (which is weird) but Schiff confirmed in one of his interviews last week that they did reach out to him privately

Lee did publicly on Election Night (but only to Schiff, not to Garvey), Porter hasn't afaik.